Phil Steele's Daily Blog - Friday July 10th

I have gone thru each teams conference records this decade. Now lets take a look at home records this decade. First lets get to the chart and then some analysis.

HOME W'S
HOME L'S
%
# of times Dog at home
HOME W'S
HOME L'S
%
# of times Dog at home
1 BOISE ST
56
2
96.6%
2
61 ARK ST
30
18
62.5%
18
2 OKLAHOMA
55
2
96.5%
1
62 MINNESOTA
36
22
62.1%
16
3 TEXAS
50
4
92.6%
0
63 Air Force
34
21
61.8%
13
4 TROY
36
5
87.8%
6
64 CONNECTICUT
34
21
61.8%
18
5 OHIO STATE
54
8
87.1%
3
65 NEVADA
32
20
61.5%
24
6 TCU
45
7
86.5%
6
66 TULSA
33
21
61.1%
21
7 USC
47
8
85.5%
4
67 NEW MEXICO
34
22
60.7%
21
8 VIRGINIA TECH
52
9
85.2%
3
68 COLORADO
32
21
60.4%
18
9 FLORIDA
49
9
84.5%
1
69 MIAMI OH
27
18
60.0%
11
10 LSU
54
10
84.4%
5
70 MISSISSIPPI
36
24
60.0%
17
11 GEORGIA
47
10
82.5%
3
71 MICHIGAN ST
36
24
60.0%
18
12 TEXAS TECH
47
10
82.5%
9
72 NC STATE
36
24
60.0%
20
13 MIAMI FL
46
11
80.7%
3
73 AKRON
27
18
60.0%
17
14 LOUISVILLE
45
11
80.4%
6
74 HOUSTON
31
21
59.6%
17
15 AUBURN
51
13
79.7%
6
75 RICE
26
18
59.1%
22
16 NEBRASKA
51
13
79.7%
9
76 UCF
30
21
58.8%
20
17 USF
43
11
79.6%
10
77 SAN JOSE ST
27
19
58.7%
21
18 TOLEDO
42
11
79.2%
11
78 IOWA ST
34
24
58.6%
27
19 BOSTON COLL
45
12
78.9%
9
79 NORTHWESTERN
31
24
56.4%
29
20 MICHIGAN
48
13
78.7%
5
80 UAB
27
21
56.3%
16
21 OREGON ST
43
12
78.2%
10
81 UTEP
29
23
55.8%
22
22 IOWA
45
13
77.6%
14
82 CENTRAL MICH
26
21
55.3%
22
23 OREGON
44
13
77.2%
5
83 FLA  ATLANTIC
21
17
55.3%
8
24 FRESNO ST
39
12
76.5%
10
84 MEMPHIS
31
26
54.4%
19
25 WKU
41
13
75.9%
3
85 WAKE FOREST
30
26
53.6%
21
26 CINCINNATI
40
13
75.5%
17
86 WASH ST
30
26
53.6%
22
27 MARYLAND
43
14
75.4%
18
87 BALL ST
25
22
53.2%
20
28 PENN ST
46
15
75.4%
14
88 EAST CAROLINA
26
23
53.1%
21
29 FLORIDA  ST
42
14
75.0%
4
89 SYRACUSE
29
26
52.7%
24
30 UTAH
39
13
75.0%
5
90 OHIO
24
22
52.2%
17
31 MARSHALL
39
13
75.0%
11
91 NAVY
25
23
52.1%
16
32 HAWAII
55
19
74.3%
19
92 ILLINOIS
29
27
51.8%
23
33 WISCONSIN
46
16
74.2%
12
93 RUTGERS
30
28
51.7%
26
34 WEST VIRGINIA
43
15
74.1%
12
94 NORTH CAROLINA
28
28
50.0%
26
35 TENNESSEE
45
16
73.8%
9
95 WASHINGTON
29
29
50.0%
27
36 VIRGINIA
42
15
73.7%
23
96 TULANE
26
26
50.0%
30
37 CLEMSON
44
16
73.3%
13
97 NORTH TEXAS
22
23
48.9%
22
38 N ILLINOIS
37
14
72.5%
11
98 KENTUCKY
29
31
48.3%
29
39 BYU
39
15
72.2%
7
99 WYOMING
25
27
48.1%
26
40 KANSAS ST
45
18
71.4%
12
100 INDIANA
27
30
47.4%
32
41 PURDUE
41
18
69.5%
10
101 NEW MEX ST
23
27
46.0%
25
42 ARKANSAS
45
20
69.2%
18
102 LOUISIANA
22
26
45.8%
20
43 GEORGIA TECH
39
18
68.4%
13
103 UTAH ST
20
24
45.5%
27
44 ARIZONA  ST
41
19
68.3%
12
104 MISS ST
25
31
44.6%
31
45 UCLA
38
18
67.9%
17
105 STANFORD
23
30
43.4%
32
46 BOWLING GRN
31
15
67.4%
7
106 ARIZONA
25
34
42.4%
32
47 SOUTHERN MISS
33
16
67.3%
4
107 UNLV
22
30
42.3%
24
48 CALIFORNIA
37
18
67.3%
13
108 BAYLOR
24
33
42.1%
37
49 MISSOURI
37
18
67.3%
13
109 E MICHIGAN
19
27
41.3%
27
50 ALABAMA
43
21
67.2%
12
110 SAN DIEGO ST
21
30
41.2%
29
51 PITTSBURGH
38
19
66.7%
15
111 KENT
19
28
40.4%
23
52 LOUIS TECH
29
15
65.9%
14
112 ULM
18
27
40.0%
21
53 OKLA ST
37
20
64.9%
24
113 FIU
17
26
39.5%
13
54 W MICHIGAN
31
17
64.6%
15
114 SMU
20
33
37.7%
32
55 MIDDLE TENN
29
16
64.4%
6
115 IDAHO
15
27
35.7%
26
56 S CAROLINA
39
22
63.9%
22
116 VANDERBILT
20
38
34.5%
32
57 COLO ST
31
18
63.3%
11
117 TEMPLE
16
34
32.0%
35
58 TEXAS A&M
37
22
62.7%
19
118 BUFFALO
15
33
31.3%
36
59 KANSAS
37
22
62.7%
23
119 ARMY
13
36
26.5%
36
60 NOTRE DAME
35
21
62.5%
15
120 DUKE
10
44
18.5%
43
FBS TOTALS
4109
2385
63.3%

 

It is no surprise that Boise St is atop the list as their blue uniforms blend in with the blue turf giving them a unique advantage. Only one team has beaten them at home during the regular season and that was way back in 2001 when a Wash St team that finished 10-2 and #10 in the polls beat them 41-20. Their other home loss was in a bowl game vs Boston College 27-21 in 2005. While Boise has an incredible home record it must be factored in that they have played just 5 BCS conference schools at home this decade and are 3-2 60% in those games. The makes Oklahoma's record of 55-2 even more remarkable. Almost all of their home games have been vs BCS foes and ironically one of their two home losses was to a non BCS school when TCU beat them in 2005. Their other loss came when they were a 4 TD favorite to beat rival Oklahoma St which came into the game just 3-7 and that was the game that put Les Miles on the map. Oklahoma was caught looking ahead to their Big 12 title game vs Colorado the next week but that loss knocked them
out of the game.

Nine teams have single digit losses at home this decade. Texas (4), Troy (5), Ohio St (8) TCU (7) and USC (8) have all lost less than 1 game at home per year. Virginia Tech and Florida have lost just 9 each (1 per year). Here are some schools that rank near the top that the casual college football fan probably would not expect. Texas Tech is 47-10 at home this decade with Lubbock an out the way location with a loud home crowd. Louisville is off two straight disappointing seasons but is 45-11 in Papa Johns. Toledo was a horrible 1-5 in the Glass bowl last year and that dropped them all the way to #18 as they had been 41-6 in the eight years prior. Cincinnati is a surprising 40-13 at home this decade and Maryland is 43-14. Northern Illinois is one of the loudest places to play despite the small capacity but they are 37-14 at home.

Is there an advantage to playing at home? The 120 FBS teams have a combined home record of 4109-2385 which means that they win 63.3% of their home games. Also there are 96 of the 120 teams that have a record of .500 or better at home and just 24 teams that have a losing record at home this decade.

Let me take a closer look at the teams at the bottom of the list. All 24 teams listed above that had losing records at home have losing records overall this decade. There are 8 BCS conference schools on the list in Kentucky, Indiana, Miss St, Stanford, Arizona, Baylor, Vanderbilt and Duke. When Duke wins opposing players usually say they were lulled to sleep by the high school sized crowds and they have pulled some upsets like upsetting Clemson in 2004 and Georgia Tech in 2003 but 3 of their 10 wins at home this decade have been vs FCS or 1AA foes so they are actually 7-44 at home vs FBS teams this decade.

That got me thinking of how many times a team has been an underdog at home this decade. Is there any team in the country that has not been an underdog even once at home? The answer is yes and it is Texas which has been favored in all 54 home games this decade and has lost 4 of those. Florida has been a home dog just once in the "Swamp" and that was vs Florida St a game they did lose 38-34. Oklahoma was actually a dog once at home this decade and they beat Nebraska in 2000 31-14. Vegas linesmakers knew what they were doing with Boise St as they have been a home dog just twice this decade and those were their two home losses.

It probably does not surprise you that Duke has been a home dog 43 times this decade which is the most of any school. Baylor has actually been expected to lose at home in 37 of their games this decade (2nd most) but are only 13th worst in home record at 24-33.

That got me looking at two more scenarios. First of all which teams have been overrated at home. I took the amount of times a team was expected to lose at home (an underdog) and subtracted the amount of actual losses they suffered at home. There are 11 teams who lost 8 games (or more) than the amount of games they were expected to lose at home and the list is a little surprising. Southern Miss lost 16 games at home and were a dog only 4 times which puts them at the top of the list with 12. Here are the 11 teams that lost 8+ more games at home than was expected.
1. Southern Miss 12
2. Florida St 10
3. Alabama 9
4. Florida, Miami Florida, Michigan, Oregon, Utah, Bowling Green, BYU, Purdue, Air Force all tied with 8.

Now lets take a look at the underrated home teams from this decade. I know Virginia has been a much better team at home than on the road. They are 42-15 at home and just 17-32 when playing on the road. It surprises me that they have been expected to lose (underdog) 23 times at home this decade and yet they have lost just 15 times. That is 8 full games better than expected and that is by far the best in the FBS. As you would expect the numbers are a lot lower for teams who actually have less losses at home than games they were expected to lose. There are only 20 teams that made this list so let me list them all below.
1. Virginia 8
2. Northwestern 5
3. Tied with 4 are Baylor, Tulane, Oklahoma St, Nevada, Rice, Maryland and Cincinnati.
4. Tied with 3 are Buffalo, Utah St, Iowa St
5. Tied with 2 are Stanford, Indiana, San Jose St
6. Tied with 1 are Iowa, Troy, Central Michigan, Kansas and Temple.

Tomorrow I take a look at the best road teams this decade.

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