Daily Blog - Thursday, July 30th

At the end of the 2008 season we devised a formula which plugged in the stats from the just completed season and then factored in the opponents and the site the game was played and came up with an individual team power rating for each game. I was very pleased that the formula did indeed assign a true power rating for each game and it was highly accurate. All you have to do is look at the Top 10 performances of 2008 and you will see how accurate. Check out my blog on Tuesday June 23rd.

Since then I have run the computer system into our stats for both the 2007 , 2006 and 2005 seasons and I have been very pleased with the results and put them in my July 15th, July 17th and July 20th blogs. Now I will take a look at 2004.

Here are the top 10 individual grade performances for 2004

1. Arizona St at 117.43 level in 44-7 win over Iowa
Iowa finished #8 in the country with a 10-2 record and beat LSU in the Capital One bowl! Iowa had SIX FD’s and was out gained 511-100!! Wow!
2. USC at 115.3 level in 55-19 win over Oklahoma
This was the national title game and was close for a while. The Sooners gave up in the 2nd half and were steam rolled. USC had a 527-372 yard edge which is why it was not higher.
3. Louisville at 112.58 level in 70-7 win over Cincinnati
The Bearcats were actually a 7-5 squad under then coach Mark Dantonio. Cincy beat their previous 4 opponents by an average of 41-17 including #21 SMiss who they beat 52-24. Louisville rolled with a 491-196 yard edge and led the game 63-0.
4. Oklahoma at a 112.54 level in 42-3 win over Colorado
This game was the Big 12 title game and OU had an AMAZING 26-3 FD edge and 498-46 yard edge. A conference title game where one team had 3 FD’s and 46 total yards?
5. TCU at 112.48 level in 44-0 win over SMU
The Iron Skillet rivalry was a mismatch here. SMU was just 3-8 on the year but had only lost to Texas Tech by 14 in the opener. TCU had a 562-170 yard edge.
6. USC At 111.65 level in 45-7 win over Arizona St.
The Sun Devils went 9-3 and finished #19 in the final polls. They were no match for the USC express here with the Trojans having a 446-243 yard edge and it was 42-7 at the half and could have been much worse.
7. Texas at 108.9 level in 65-0 win over North Texas
North Texas won their 3rd consecutive Sun Belt title in 2004 but were not even competitive here. Texas had a 29-4 FD edge and 643-130 yard edge in their 65 point shutout win.
8. Utah at 107.82 level in 46-16 win over North Carolina
North Carolina was a bowl squad in 2004 but were no match here. Utah had 396 yards......in the 1st HALF! They finished with a 569 yards and a 35-14 FD edge with NC getting a TD with the outcome long decided.
9. LSU at 107.53 level in 51-0 win over Miss St.
Miss St was just 3-8 on the year but their defense even in a 3-8 year still allowed just 25.5 ppg. They even upset #20 Florida 38-31. LSU had a 31-7 FD edge and 599-130 yard edge in an SEC conference game.
10. Michigan St at 107.25 level in 51-17 win over Minnesota
The 2004 Gophers won the Music City bowl beating Alabama. Here they came in 5-1 and ranked #19 and left allowing 324 yards rushing AND 312 yards passing to a Mich St team that would finish just 5-7!

I have noticed a trend when writing these blogs for 2005, 2006 and 2007 that shows teams in the AP Top Ten but not in my computers are overrated the next year and teams in my computers Top Ten but not in the AP Top Ten are underrated. Lets see if that holds true to form.

Here is the final AP Top Ten from 2004
USC (13-0)
Auburn (13-0)
Utah (12-0)
Texas (11-1)
Louisville (11-1)
Georgia (10-2)
Iowa (10-2)
California (10-2)
Virginia Tech (10-3)

My Computers Final Top Ten from 2004
USC 96.29
California 92.1
Auburn 91.5
Oklahoma 91.19
Louisville 90.27
Texas 87.36
Utah 85.3
Texas Tech 84.22
LSU 84.15
Georgia 84.1

USC won the national title and was the #1 team in the final AP poll and the SEC was screaming that their unbeaten league champ Auburn had been left out. Had my playoff system been in place it could have matched the 4 unbeaten teams at the end of the regular season and then had the winners play off two weeks later. That would have set up a USC/Auburn title game which would have made everyone happy. You might be surprised to see Cal at #2 on my computer but keep in mind during the season they had a 28-12 FD edge and 424-205 yard edge vs #1 USC and came up just short on the scoreboard. Cal won their games by an average of 37-16.

Lets look at the AP Top Ten teams that my computer thought was a little overrated in 2004. There were only two teams that were in the AP final Top Ten that were not in my computers Top Ten Iowa was #8 in the AP but just #21 in my computers final grades. In 2005 Iowa opened up #11 in the AP poll and they went 7-5 and finished out of the rankings in 2005. Virginia Tech just missed my computers Top Ten at #11 but that would be the other team that qualifies. They opened 2005 at #8 and finished at #7.

There were two teams left out of the AP Top Ten that were in my computers Top Ten at the end of 2204. Texas Tech opened 2005 at #21 in the AP poll but went on to a solid 9-2 regular season getting as high as #13 in the polls and they even beat Oklahoma in the regular season final. After a bowl loss to Bama they did finish #20. The other was LSU and the Tigers finished 2005 #6 in the country after their thrashing of #9 Miami Florida 40-3 in the bowl. LSU did finish ahead of Virginia Tech in 2005 by one slot.

I have now dissected 4 years of college football games going back and plugging my computer numbers into the games that were played. I feel the computer has come up with the legitimate Top Ten game performances for each year and I am pleased with the computers final Top Tens in each. Next week in one of my daily blogs I will take a look at the final ratings for each of the Top Ten teams from last year. I have established in the 4 years of analysis that if a team was in the AP Top Ten but not in my computers Top Ten at the end of the year that they were overrated the next season. I have also established that team that were in my computers Top Ten but not in the AP Top Ten were underrated the next year. I will list this year over and underrated teams next week.