Daily Blog - Sunday May 31st
It is Sunday morning and we are working on the regional magazines which have 6 full color pages on each BCS conference team and 4 full color pages on the remaining 1-A conferences. In each regional this year we will also be including that areas 1-AA (FCS) teams. I am right now working on the most improved guidelines for each of the FCS teams.
I looked at Turnovers = Turnaround for the 1-AA teams over the last 2 years. Teams have to be -10 in Turnovers to make the list and that occurred 31 times in 2006 & 2007. Those teams improved their record 20 times, had weaker records 9 times and the same record twice. That shows 71% of the teams that had negative double digit turnovers the previous year had a stronger or the same record. While not as strong as the 77% for 1-A teams it is still a solid 71% guideline.
While the Turnovers = Turnaround was good but not as strong as 1-A, the Net Close Wins and Net Close Losses were actually a STRONGER indicator. 1-A Teams with 2 or more Net Wins (close wins by 7 or less and subtract close losses) that had a weaker record the next year occurred 76.4% of the time. Teams that had 2 or more Net Losses had a stronger record 73% or the time and those numbers are over the last 7 years. The complete breakdown of those stats are on page 299 of this years national magazine.
I just finished analyzing the last two seasons of the NET Close Wins and Losses in 1-AA. There has been 53 Teams that BENEFITTED from 2 or more NET Close wins in 2006 and 2007. Of those, 36 had a WEAKER record the next year, 11 managed to improve and 6 stayed that same. That means that 79.2% of the teams that had 2 or more NET close wins had a weaker or the same record the next year.
The numbers were just as good for the NET Close Losses. In 2006 and 2007 there were 58 Teams that had 2 or More NET Close Losses. Of those teams 41 IMPROVED their record the next year, 12 had weaker records and 5 stayed the same. That means that 79.3% of the teams that had 2 or more NET Close Losses the previous year had their record improve or stay the same the next year.
Today I will be giving the YPP and returning starters and lettermen factors the litmus test for past years but I am confident these factors will be just as strong.
One big change if you are a IAA or FCS fan and is that the complete FCS Guide will be in the ACC/Big East regional this year which is where the majority of the schools are located. Each Regional is just $6.99 plus $2 S&H or I am offering an EARLY BIRD bonus in which you can receive ALL 5 Regionals plus get FREE S&H for only $24.99. This offer expires June 11, 2009 and can be purchased by calling 1-866-918-7711.
95 Days until the start of football and have a great Sunday!