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Daily Blog • Saturday, October 10th

The season is far from over but a couple of Ohio St bloggers as well as some Ohio State fans that wrote into Phil Steele.com questioned my sanity for picking Brandon Saine as the top RB at Ohio St over Boom Herron. Yes, Herron was the top RB out of spring and had more yards last year but remember Saine was never 100% healthy last year. After last week Saine has rushed for 294 yards and a solid 6.0 ypc and Herron just 233 and 3.6 ypc. Remember the players I have listed #1 in the magazine are not the ones that necessarily will START the season but the ones that will be the starter at the end.

Colorado St leading WR Rashun Greer was benched vs BYU after two dropped passes turned into 2 BYU interceptions. Greer came back last week and had 7 receptions for 125 yards and 17.9 ypc vs Idaho.

I just watched the celebration penalty against AJ Green vs LSU. What a HORRIBLE call. AJ did nothing but be happy about scoring the potential game winning TD and did nothing to bring attention to himself. Had that not been called and LSU was pinned back at its 20 or 30, I believe the Dogs defense could have held.

I must admit I am pretty pleased with the forecasts from my NFL magazine this year. I will begin charting the accuracy of each of the magazines in the NFL with the same formula that Stassen.com uses for the colleges but here is a quick recap after one fourth of the season.

AFC East - I had New England winning the division and last years 11-5 division champs the Dolphins missing the playoffs, GOOD. I had the Jets at 6-10 but the Jets were the consensus pick for the basement in the East so I have some company on that one.

AFC Central - I had Pittsburgh at 12-4 and Baltimore at 10-6. This one is too close to call but I still feel in the end the Steelers will win that division.

AFC South - I had the Colts winning the South and Tennessee which had the best record in the NFL last year finishing 3rd with an 8-8 record. Looks good so far.

AFC West - Every magazine had San Diego winning the West and I still feel they will do just that. I do not believe any magazine had Denver making the playoffs which it looks like is a strong possibility.

NFC East - I had Philly and the Giants tied for first in the East and they look to be among the top 5 teams in the NFL. While I had the Cowboys in 3rd, I did have them making the playoffs.

NFC North - Chicago was the consensus pick to win the North but I had the Vikings #1 in the North and going to the Super Bowl with the addition of Favre. I had Green Bay and Chicago tied for 2nd and if I could do it all over again after 4 weeks I would make the exact same picks.

NFC South - I am VERY happy with the 4 week results here. The combined magzines had Atlanta winning the South with Carolina #2 and New Orleans way back in 3rd place. I had the Saints winning the South and at this point that looks pretty good.

NFC West - I had the Cardinals in first followed by Seattle and San Fran. The season is way too young to call this race but up to this point San Fran has looked like the top team in the West.

The NFL magazine is loaded with information and since the season has started and we will no longer be shipping magazines to the newsstands you can purchase any of my magazines for this year for just $5 as long as you pick up the shipping. Also for every magazine you buy for $5, I will give you another of your choice for FREE! That comes out to $2.50 per magazine as long as you pay for the shipping.
Call 1-866-918-7711 today and this includes College*, Regionals and NFL magazines!
*Please note we have very few Cover choices available.

MORE COLLEGE NEWS & NOTES >>

Houston’s 42 FD’s (vs UTEP) were 3 away from the NCAA record which was set in 2003 by Texas Tech vs Iowa St (45). Their combined 68 FD’s in that game was 4 away from the NCAA record set in 1986 in the New Mexico/San Diego St game with 72.

Georgia burned the redshirt on True Frosh Wasean Ealey (PS#3) last week and he had 33 yards on 8 carries. Coaches gave him #24 (Knowshon Moreno’s number) and he did not ask for it. He has shown the ability to break tackles and burst into holes which the Bulldogs other backs have not shown. This is the first time since 1937 that Georgia and Tennessee have met and neither team has been ranked!

Check out my WR of the week for some injury information on Kentucky.

Last year South Carolina was #11 in the SEC in turnover margin at this time at –7 and this year they have just one turnover in each of their first 5 games and are +4 which is #28 in the NCAA. Can you say Turnovers equals Turnaround?

West Virginia went back to the run offense in the 2nd half last week with 28 rush plays and just 5 pass plays after a couple of sacks allowed Colorado back into the game. The QB of the defense Reed Williams returned from injury vs Syracuse and had 9 tackles and 3 pbu.

Fresno State is 0-3 this year but their losses have been to 5-0 Wisconsin, 5-0 Cincinnatti and 5-0 Boise State. Interestingly Fresno has OUTGAINED ALL 3 teams that beat them. That is the most impressive 1-3 team in the country!

Oregon St is 22-5 in the last 3 months of the year the last 3 seasons.

This is the 11th time in college football history that the previous two national champs have met and the reigning champ is just 4-5-1 incluiding last year when Florida (‘06 champ) beat LSU (‘07 champ). LSU has not posted a defensive sack in any of the last 3 games.

Wisconsin is the only unbeaten team in the FBS that is unranked.

I was a little surprised the way that Elon used their timeouts at the end of the Elon/Furman game last week Elon had the ball with a little under 2 minutes to go down by 2 points. They had 3 timeouts in their pocket but used the first timeout after a first down pass when the clock was already stopped for the first down. During the drive they had a play tackled in bounds and close to :35 ran off the clock and no timeout was called. They used their 2nd timeout after an incomplete pass? They did end up kicking the game winning FG at the end.

San Jose State’s 242 rush yards vs Cal Poly were more yards rushing than they had in their last SEVEN games combined (163 yards)!!

College Top 120 Average Rankings

1	FLORIDA	100.38	31	WISCONSIN	79.92	61	COLORADO ST	73.59	91	SMU	65.11
2	TEXAS	98.86	32	GEORGIA	79.64	62	OREGON ST	72.77	92	UCF	64.79
3	ALABAMA	96.80	33	CALIFORNIA	79.48	63	KANSAS ST	72.22	93	FAU	64.76
4	OKLAHOMA	93.57	34	HOUSTON	79.13	64	MIDDLE TENN	72.19	94	WYOMING	64.41
5	NEBRASKA	93.50	35	UCLA	78.99	65	TOLEDO	72.05	95	MARSHALL	64.30
6	USC	93.50	36	ARKANSAS	78.99	66	N ILLINOIS	72.00	96	MARYLAND	64.19
7	OHIO ST	90.15	37	PITTSBURGH	78.82	67	MINNESOTA	71.61	97	UNLV	67.50
8	MIAMI FLA	87.59	38	CONNECTICUT	78.79	68	TEXAS TECH	71.50	98	SAN DIEGO ST	63.69
9	VIRGINIA TECH	87.40	39	FLORIDA ST	78.71	69	TEMPLE	70.81	99	UAB	63.47
10	AUBURN	86.96	40	ARIZONA ST	78.65	70	ILLINOIS	70.61	100	W MICHIGAN	63.31
11	TENNESSEE	84.50	41	NC ST	78.54	71	INDIANA	70.35	101	LT	62.56
12	CINCINNATI	86.30	42	WEST VIRGINIA	78.31	72	BOWLING GREEN	69.85	102	ARMY	62.43
13	BYU	85.97	43	OKLAHOMA ST	78.24	73	TROY ST	69.58	103	MEMPHIS	61.49
14	TCU	85.59	44	TULSA	78.21	74	IDAHO	69.58	104	SAN JOSE ST	60.16
15	S CAROLINA	85.47	45	KENTUCKY	78.17	75	NORTHWESTERN	69.30	105	UTEP	59.84
16	OREGON	84.92	46	MICHIGAN ST	77.44	76	MISSISSIPPI	69.03	106	DUKE	59.18
17	PENN ST	84.81	47	PURDUE	76.84	77	OHIO U	68.86	107	AKRON	58.64
18	MISSOURI	84.29	48	BOISE ST	76.73	78	VIRGINIA	68.82	108	E MICHIGAN	58.51
19	STANFORD	83.66	49	MICHIGAN	76.45	79	FRESNO ST	68.41	109	RICE	57.37
20	NOTRE DAME	83.60	50	BOSTON COLL	76.07	80	BUFFALO	68.15	110	WASH ST	57.20
21	GEORGIA TECH	83.49	51	N CAROLINA	75.52	81	ARKANSAS ST	67.58	111	IOWA ST	56.98
22	WASHINGTON	82.72	52	MISS ST	75.13	82	SYRACUSE	67.05	112	FLORIDA INT'L	56.58
23	WAKE FOREST	82.67	53	VANDERBILT	75.13	83	N TEXAS ST	66.69	113	KENT ST	56.32
24	UTAH	82.50	54	S MISS	74.86	84	COLORADO	66.07	114	TULANE	55.89
25	IOWA	82.01	55	BAYLOR	74.80	85	EAST CAROLINA	66.00	115	NEW MEXICO	54.01
26	TEXAS A&M	81.81	56	C MICHIGAN	74.80	86	LOUISVILLE	65.93	116	MIAMI (OH)	53.85
27	ARIZONA	81.06	57	AIR FORCE	74.53	87	RUTGERS	65.79	117	BALL STATE	53.35
28	SOUTH FLORIDA	80.52	58	KANSAS	74.46	88	LOUISIANA	65.59	118	NEW MEXICO ST	51.10
29	CLEMSON	80.36	59	NAVY	74.09	89	UTAH ST	65.52	119	HAWAII	50.39
30	LSU	80.30	60	NEVADA	73.91	90	ULM	65.23	120	WKU	32.86

POWER POLL TOP 25

1	FLORIDA	10	MIAMI (FLA)	20	GEORGIA
2	TEXAS	11	TCU	21	STANFORD
3	ALABAMA	12	BOISE ST	22	S CAROLINA
4	USC	13	IOWA	23	OREGON
5	LSU	14	PENN ST	24	KANSAS
6	OHIO ST	15	AUBURN	25	BYU
7	OKLAHOMA	16	MISSISSIPPI
8	NEBRASKA	17	SOUTH FLORIDA
9	VIRGINIA TECH	18	CINCINNATI
		19	OKLAHOMA ST

MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 11TH

WASHINGTON AT CAROLINA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
WASH	110	183	14	2	#9
CAROLINA	138	193	16	2	#32
The Redskins have yet to score 30 points in 20 games under Jim Zorn (not topped 20 in 11 of last 12) & the front office brought in Sherm Lewis to be a consultant. Lewis is a West Coast guru but has been out of football for over 4 years & will be unfamiliar with the current state of the NFL. CAR is in a good spot here as they only have 3 players on the injury report, Fox is a very good coach & used the bye to self-scout & I firmly believe that they will get their ground game back on track. I think Delhomme will be given a lot of low risk plays this week to rebuild his confidence & the CAR defense will rebound with the return of SS Chris Harris who is their defensive QB. Carolina has taken on the 9^th toughest schedule and Washington the NFL’s weakest at #32!
PHIL’S FORECAST : CAROLINA 23 Washington 10

ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
ATLANTA	89	208	18	1	#8
SAN FRAN	135	250	29	3	#15
I can’t remember the last time an NFC West team was ranked in the top 10 in overall defense but SF is 6^th right now (ATL’s 30^th). The 49ers are only allowing 74 ypg rushing (3.1) & ATL RB Turner who domintated LY only has 75 ypg (3.5) so far. SF will once again be without RB Gore but Shaun Hill is 7-0 as a starter for the 49ers at home. There is an adage that offensive oriented teams need a Qtr & a half to get back up to speed after a bye & the Falcons could be down by 10 with the 49ers playing ball control & letting the defense handle the workload here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : SAN FRANCISCO 23 ATLANTA 10

MINNESOTA AT ST LOUIS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
MINN	130	180	31	1	#3
ST LOUIS	105	180	6	2	#20
This is a massive letdown game for the Vikings who are off a last second win vs SF & the big “validation game” on MNF vs GB. Favre was exhausted at the end of the MNF game vs GB & I expect MIN to hold him to under 25 pass att’s here & let Peterson carry the load. MIN is 6-3 after Peterson is held to under 100 yds rushing as a starter & STL is allowing 135 ypg rushing (4.1). The Rams have 7 of 8 units ranked 23^rd or lower in my position talent rankings while MIN has 6 units ranked 12^th or higher. I think MIN will go up big & then coast in the 2^nd half here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : MINNESOTA 27 ST LOUIS 10

TAMPA BAY AT PHILADELPHIA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
TAMPA BAY	80	11	10	2	#5
PHILADELPHIA	153	263	32	2	#13
The Eagles are 10-0 after a bye under Andy Reid & get all but 1 player (OG Herremans) back from injury here. McNabb could be rusty here as he’s essentially starting the season all over after missing 3 weeks of football. However, the Eagles get a TB team equivalent in talent to KC who PHI shredded 34-14 with a 420-196 yd edge. This is the 3^rd road game in 4 weeks for TB, with Josh Johnson (106 yds 59% 1-1 LW) in his 2^nd start vs a rested PHI defense. TB has been outscored 56-7 combined in the 1^st & 3^rd Qtrs & the 3 teams who fired their OC’s in the preseason (TB, BUF, KC) are a combined 1-11 so far.
PHIL’S FORECAST : PHILADELPHIA 27 TAMPA BAY 3

CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CLEVELAND	111	145	16	2	#7
BUFFALO	149	218	24	2	#18
This is the 3^rd year in a row these teams have met & CLE is 2-0 vs the Bills. The coaches are also very familiar with each other with Mangini having coached the Jets. The Bills are 3-12 since 10/26/08 under Jauron & another loss to a winless team could be the nail in the coffin. The Bills injuries are crippling as they have vertical threat WR’s with an OL that struggles vs 3-4 teams with a poor situation at OT. The Bills are beat up in the secondary & I was surprised they gave up 250 yds (5.6) vs MIA LW. I think this is the best chance the Browns have for a win until Thanksgiving week & Derek Anderson should play well here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : CLEVELAND 24 BUFFALO 23

PITTSBURGH AT DETROIT
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
PITTSBURGH	129	225	28	1	#11
DETROIT	74	220	19	1	#30
This game is sold out only because a mass of Steelers fans are making the trip here. PIT is off a dominating win vs SD & only have CLE on deck. DET is expected to star Culpepper here as Stafford hasn’t practiced this week due to a dislocated knee. Roethlisberger could have a career day here vs a Lions defense that is allowing 240 ypg (73%) with a 12-2 ratio which is actually worse than LY’s pass defense. PIT has 4 games of tape on Schwartz’s system with the Lions & should dominate for their traveling “home crowd”.
PHIL’S FORECAST : PITTSBURGH 31 DETROIT 20

INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
INDIANAPOLIS	69	333	31	1	#22
TENNESSEE	130	225	17	2	#31
The Colts transition to Jim Caldwell has been seamless but I think the real credit has to go to Tom Moore & Howard Mudd who returned as the OC & OL coach for Manning. Peyton has 4 straight 300 yd games to open the season & the Colts are 13-0 since last Nov. The Titans know how to play the Colts & are not intimidated by Manning or their high powered offense. However, IND gets a TEN defense sorely missing Jim Schwartz & will be without 2 of their top 3 CB’s with the other playing with bruised ribs. The Titans could be 0-6 going into their bye week..
PHIL’S FORECAST : COLTS 25 TENNESSEE 21

HOUSTON AT ARIZONA
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
HOUSTON	72	255	24	2	#6
ARIZONA	90	320	31	1	#15
think this will be a rather high scoring game here as both teams have defensive issues. ARZ is giving up 280 ypg passing (60%) with a 7-2 ratio while HOU is allowing 165 ypg (5.5) & that is after they played OAK LW. Whisenhunt has repeatedly stated the need to refocus a rush attack that is only earning 60 ypg (3.2) so far TY in order to reduce the hits that Warner has been absorbing. HOU has been hit by the flu bug this week & DE Mario Williams (bruised shoulder) hasn’t practiced. Schaub is only 3-10 as a starter on the road & with ARZ off a blowout loss to IND at home prior to the bye I think they get back on track here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : ARIZONA 34 HOUSTON 23

NEW ENGLAND AT DENVER
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
NEW ENGLAND	120	230	22	1	#29
DENVER	113	218	18	1	#26
On the surface this looks a matchup between powerhouse teams with NE having the #8 & #7 units vs the Jets, Falcons & Ravens. DEN is 4-0 with the #2 & #7 units but that has been built on lesser quality foes such as OAK & CLE followed by DAL with the #26 defense. Belichick is 5-2 SU vs former coordinators & has never lost the initial matchup vs them. Both teams will be without their starting RB’s (NE’s Taylor & DEN’s Buckhalter) which makes the quality of the QB’s standout more. Orton is doing a nice job for DEN here (5-0 ratio 7.7 ypa) but NE is rapidly rounding into elite form & I’ll side with the more experienced head coach here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NEW ENGLAND 20 DENVER 10

DALLAS AT KANSAS CITY
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
DALLAS	142	258	26	1	#10
KANSAS CITY	92	220	18	4	#4
DAL has a huge edge statistically on offense despite how LW’s game ended with the #4 offense vs the Chiefs #31 unit. You are what your record says they are & the Cowboys are 12-12 the L24 now while the Chiefs have lost 27 of their last 29 games. DAL is expected to be without SS Sensabaugh, RB Jones & Roy Williams is very doubtful with 3 bruised ribs. KC has lost yardage on 1 of every 5 offensive plays thru the 1^st 4 games, outscored 47-13 in the 1^st & 3^rd Qtrs, & held to under 200 yds in 3 of 4 games. DAL has a bye on deck & should easily handle the Chiefs but I am a little wary of their injury situation here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : DALLAS 28 KANSAS CITY 7

OAKLAND AT NY GIANTS
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
OAKLAND	51	43	5	3	#24
NY GIANTS	182	223	25	2	#28
This is a huge letdown spot for the Giants here as they became the 8th team to sweep a 3 game road trip since 1990 & they have another road game vs NO on deck. OAK is coming cross country after a road blowout vs HOU & compounding matters is that this will be a 10 am start for them. Eli Manning (bruised heel) practiced Friday & I expect him to play until the game gets out of hand. In 16 games as HC, Tom Cable’s Raiders have 19 more yards than the 2006 Art Shell Raiders. The Giants have 6 units ranked 10^th or higher in my position rankings & OAK has 5 units ranked 29^th or lower. The Giants should have an easy time as long as they remain focused.
PHIL’S FORECAST : NY GIANTS 33 OAKLAND 10

CINCINNATI AT BALTIMORE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
CINCINNATI	50	203	18	2	#25
BALTIMORE	138	258	28	1	#17
The Ravens are in a foul mood here after some horrible officiating & a blatant dropped pass by WR Clayton cost them LW’s game vs NE. CIN is 3-1 but all 4 games have been decided in the final 2 min of the game. Minus his 4 go ahead drives Palmer only has 624 yds (56%) with a 4-5 ratio. The Ravens are playing explosive & violent football & I am impressed by their #3 offense at this point. Facing the an angry Ravens team after struggling to put away the Browns doesn’t make me confident.
PHIL’S FORECAST : BALTIMORE 28 CINCINNATI 20

JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE
	Rushing	Passing	Points	TO’s	ST
JACKSONVILLE	126	198	23	1	#23
SEATTLE	104	283	24	2	#19
The Jaguars are off a lucky win vs HOU & a dominating win vs TEN with Garrard passing for 537 yds (67%) with a 3-0 ratio. However, they have to make the 2^nd longest flight possible in the NFL (2440 miles) here. SEA expects to have QB Hasselbeck back here & Jim Mora was thrilled to only have 5 starters expected to miss here. While SEA has had 10 starters miss 23 games so far TY the good news is that only LT Jones is in danger of landing on IR (6 players IR this time LY). I think the Seahawks & Qwest Field will be recharged with their QB at the helm vs a JAX team in their 1^st true West Coast trip since Wk 1 2005.
PHIL’S FORECAST : SEATTLE 23 JACKSONVILLE 17

A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase. You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com.

JOSH'S WK 6 FCS FORECAST