Daily Blog • Saturday, October 31st


GAMEDAY NEWS & NOTES

AUBURN - During their 3 game losing streak, Todd has been a 50% passer averaging 86.7 yards per game with an 0-2 ratio. Despite his struggles, Chizik said Todd will continue to be the starter.

 

NAVY - Navy ranks in the upper 4th of the NCAA in every defensive category, allowing 20.8 points per game (39th) and 316 yards per game (30th).

 

IOWA - The Hawks’ win over MSU was costly as LG Dace Richardson (1st Tm Midseason All-Big Ten & 2nd Tm All-American) was lost for at least the regular season with a broken leg. Iowa is the first Big Ten team selection since ’77 to win at MSU, PSU & Wisconsin in the same season.

 

MINNESOTA - Brew said that Weber is still his starting QB but that and he will go with a platoon system vs Michigan St with MarQueis Gray possibly rotating in on each series. The forecasts are calling for heavy wind, with rain or possibly snow and temps in the 30’s for UM’s first night game at TFC Bank Stadium.

 

ILLINOIS – Athletic Director Guenther said Zook will be back in 2010 in the press box at the Purdue game saying, “there will be changes but not at the top.” Guenther also gave similar votes of confidence to the Illini’s last 2 coaches: Ron Turner prior to the 2004 season and Lou Tepper prior to 1996 when he told a newspaper that Tepper would be back “no matter what”. WR Benn said the players are preoccupied with their on-the-field struggles and not Zook’s job status: “That wasn’t our concern. This (losing) is in-house. That (Zook) is out-house.”

 

MICHIGAN ST – Eleven of Dantonio’s 14 losses at MSU have come by 8 or fewer points.

 

PENN ST - Paterno said after Clark’s performance vs Michigan: “We have a big gun and we’re going to shoot him...we feel like we match up pretty well against just about anybody throwing the ball if the protection is good. Daryll’s playing at a very, very high level. We got a lot of trust in him. We feel like we can go after anybody.”

 

INDIANA - Lynch is under fire this week after going for it twice on 4th down late 3Q/early 4Q vs Northwestern. The first time they were stopped on downs with less than 2:00 left in the 3Q on 4th & goal at the 1 when Wildcat QB Evans tripped over the center while reversing his field. Northwestern then drove 98 yards for a TD. The Hoosiers were also stopped on downs at 4th & 3 at the NW33 with 7:04 left and to make matters worse the team used up all of its timeouts at that time.

 

NORTHWESTERN – Northwestern managed its comeback last week despite missing safety Smith and getting CB McManis knocked out from the game in the 1H after he reinjured his quad. McManis was replaced by a walk-on, Ricky Weina. Weina did block a punt which resulted in a safety. Also replacement safety Peters suffered a broken hand but continued to play. Safety Smith (thumb surgery) has missed the last 2 games but is expected to return and play with a club while the other safety Phillips (shoulder) has been limited due to injury. McManis is listed as questionable for this week’s game.

 

MICHIGAN - Center Molk (ACL) is out for the season. Molk had missed 4 games with a broken foot but returned to play the first series vs Penn St before suffering the injury. UM drove 70 yards for a TD on their 1st poss. Backup center Moosman had 2 botched snaps including one which resulted in a safety. Rod said there’s no question that Molk and RB Minor are the team’s 2 best offensive players.

 

TEXAS A&M - DC Joe Kines said that the defensive line has a huge task at hand vs the OL of Iowa St (ISU averages 327 lbs against an A&M DL that comes in at a 255 pound average, +72 lbs). Sherman said it will be a very physical week of practice as he is anticipating a lot of running for the Cyclones.

 

NEBRASKA - Pelini and Offensive Coordinator Watson both said last week that Lee played well despite the loss, his 2 late interceptions came on a 4th & 10 from the NU18 and the one prior went threw a WR’s hands. “He managed a great game, I’m telling you” Watson “He was perfect, as far as getting us in the right plays and doing the things we asked him to do in this game plan.”

 

BAYLOR-  Briles admitted this week “We’ve got to play pretty flawless to be able to execute to get points”…Over the last three games the Bears have just 24 points and I know that time of possession isn’t a huge stat but the defense can’t get off the field as last week Oklahoma St had a 38-22 edge (ISU had a 36-24 edge & OU had a 33-27 edge), Briles says he isn’t in panic mode but a lot of the players are expressing their frustration.

 

COLORADO - OC Eric Kiesau replaced QB Hansen in favor of Hawkins because Hansen was waiting too long to throw “there were some small windows, and he has to understand they’re going to close really fast”. He did continue to say that Hansen is the starting QB and will use Hawkins in a more hurry-up tempo saying he is more comfortable with that.

 

OKLAHOMA – Head Coach Stoops was thrilled with the way his defense has been playing the last 2 weeks “Two weeks in a row we’ve shut down good teams. Those are explosive offenses…Our defense came up with some big turnovers, pressure, sacks.” OU has outscored opponents 58-0 in the first quarter this season.

 

KANSAS ST - Snyder was pleased with his defense last week but talking about the offense you would of thought Kansas St lost. “I don’t want to feel good about playing poorly…It’s not about being 3-1, it’s about whether the football team gets better. That hasn’t changed.” Snyder was upset at just 284 yards of offense despite RB Thomas’ career high 145 yards. “That sum it up…stinks…bad…We didn’t progress today offensively.”

 

TEXAS - Texas is 12-0 under Brown after the Red River Rivlary. The Horns have 6 TD’s off of the kicking game this season so far: 2 kick returns, 2 punt returns & 2 offensive blocked punts. Head Coach Brown went on to say that the “kicking game is the best since we’ve been here”

 

 

OKLAHOMA ST- Defensive Coordinator Bill Young said the Cowboys defense is playing its best football of the season. “That was one of the real points of emphasis this week.”

 

KANSAS - For the 1st time in 25 games, QB Reesing (worst game in his career) failed to throw a TD pass, breaking the nation’s longest streak.

 

Iowa St - Center Reggie Stephens underwent an appendectomy on Wednesday and is out for the game & possibly the year. This is a major blow as he was the anchor of an offensive line that started 36 straight games together and as the anchor, made all the calls.

 

ARIZONA - DE Brooks Reed (sprained ankle) did not play against UCLA, and he has barely played in the last 4 games. Head Coach Stoops said he wants to get Reed fully healthy for a difficult closing stretch that begins Nov. 14th at Cal.

 

ARIZONA ST – Arizona St is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the Pac-10, but it will be difficult to get to six wins and avoid the 1st back-to-back losing seasons of Head Coach Erickson's long career.

 

CALIFORNIA - The Bears have accumulated nearly 600 rush yards in the last two weeks.

 

USC - Starting FB Stanley Havili missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury and is listed as questionable at best here. RB Joe McKnight is probable with a hand laceration.

 

OREGON - CB Talmadge Jackson, who is now the most experienced CB that Oregon has due to injuries to Walter Thurmond and Willie Glasper.

 

Oregon St - Despite missing some time in last week’s game vs USC, Jacquizz and James Rodgers are both listed as probable to go this weekend.

 

UCLA - Neuheisel said that Kevin Prince will start this week’s game vs OSU while true frosh Richard Brehaut will be used some in a limited role.

 

WASHINGTON ST - True freshman QB Jeff Tuel continues to impress after passing for 354 yards and two TD’s with no interceptions at Cal last week.

 

BOSTON COLLEGE - RB Josh Haden and QB Justin Tuggle have both decided to transfer.

 

FLORIDA ST- DT Justin Mincey, who had been all season with a sprained knee ligament, has decided not to redshirt and played last week vs North Carolina.

 

GEORGIA TECH -  "Well, it's the same as it's always been," Johnson said. "Winning (Saturday) just made the game next Saturday that much bigger. We still have four games remaining (regular season)."

 

VIRGINIA - DE Zane Parr started in place of Matt Conrath (ankle) against Georgia Tech. He is likely out for a month.

 

VIRGINIA TECH - OC Stinespring said they want to get TE Greg Boone more involved in the offense. Said they have been trying but it hasn’t worked out.

 

HAWAII - UH starting QB Bryant Moniz is probable this week after he suffered what was determined to be a concussion last week when he was struck on the back of the head during a pile-up.

 

NEVADA - In the month of October so far, Nevada has rushed for 1,701 yards (559, 345, 313 & 484 yards in the last 4 games) on 205 carries for an average of 425 yards per game & an average of 8.3 yards per game with 19 TD’s.

 

LOUISIANA TECH - WR & Return Specialist Phillip Livas is battling turf toe and only practices once a week (on Thursdays). Livas’ toe won’t heal unless he sat out the remainder of the season, so the coaching staff limits what he can do as much as they can during practice and try to get as many plays out of him in a game as they can. 

 

IDAHO - The Humanitarian Bowl continues to express interest in Idaho if Boise lands in another bowl.

 

UTAH ST - Starting QB Diondre Borel has evolved into a pretty complete play and is the perfect for the Aggies new offense.

 

SAN JOSE ST - Starting C Ronnie Castillo (ankle) is likely out this week and could possibly be out for the rest of the season. Robbie Reed will start this week for Castillo.

 

LOUISIANA - Bustle was embarrassed by a  51-29 loss at home last week.

 

FLORIDA ATLANTIC - QB Smith has not thrown an interception in 3 games (96 attempts); this time last year Smith had 14 interceptions, this year he has 3.

 

MIDDLE TENN - Under Stockstill, MT is the only SBC team to have at least a 3 game winning streak in each of the last 3 seasons. MT is 9-16 before Oct. 20 and 12-7 after Oct. 20 under Stockstill.

 

N TEXAS - QB Riley Dodge will return to the field this week. He practiced Tuesday and appeared to be back at full speed.

 

UNLV - WR Ryan Wolfe caught 11 passes for 118 yards in Saturday’s win over New Mexico to become the league’s all-time leader for career receptions.

 

TCU - The Horned Frogs has allowed 17 or more points just three times in the last 21 games. BYU QB Max Hall said the Horned Frogs were the best defense he’s faced in his career. “They were better than Oklahoma.”

 

San Diego St - QB Lindley has thrown at least one TD pass in 13 straight games and has thrown 9 TD’s the past two games.

 

Akron - Andre Jones became just the 2nd player in the NCAA this year to start 3 different positions.

 

Bowling Green - BG was 1-5 in redzone with 2 TO’s and a missed 26 yd FG.

 

Miami, OH – Head Coach Mike Haywood is the first Miami coach to lose his first 5 games.

 

Ohio - Ohio leads the NCAA with 26 takeaways.

 

MEMPHIS - RB Curtis Steele has been held out of contact for the majority of the week to avoid any extra hits on his knee. West said he expects Steele’s knee to bother him all season.

 

SMU - Mitchell suffered a dislocation of his non-throwing shoulder, but Head Coach Jones said he thinks Mitchell will be able to play this week.

 

UTEP -  HC Price is concerned about UAB QB Webb’s running ability & said that they don’t have anyone on the scout team who can come close to replicating his combination of size & speed.

 

Southern Miss - Fedora may make some changes in his FG/PAT unit after K Estes missed a 23 yd FG & also missed 2 PAT’s. Estes isn’t totally to blame as SM has had issues with snaps & holds all season. Fedora wasn’t specific about what changes may be made.

 

HOUSTON – Head Coach Sumlin doesn’t believe that his team has played their best football yet.

 

 

Here are My NFL Selections for Sunday November 1st
DENVER AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 108
218
19
1
#20
BALTIMORE
115
238
22
1
#13

DEN comes into this game with the #9 & #2 units (+7 turnovers) versus BAL #6 & #19 units (+2 turnovers). BAL has been seething over the bye week due to 3 straight losses that were all due to mistakes & meltdowns in big situations. What really impresses me for DEN is the fact they lead the NFL in “dead money” paid out to players no longer on the roster & are still 6-0. DEN’s big edge here is with their WR’s vs a shaky set of CB’s & I while I respect the BAL pass rush the DEN OL has only given up 1 sack every 22 pass att’s. This will be a very tough & physical game but in the end the Broncos will get the win on a late drive by Orton.

PHIL’S FORECAST : DENVER 21 BALTIMORE 17

HOUSTON AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 90
250
20
2
#8
BUFFALO
109
238
21
2
#9

This is Houston’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks with a road game versus IND on deck. The injury depleted Bills have stolen their L2 games vs better teams thanks to being +8 in TO’s. They now face Matt Schaub who leads the NFL in passing TD’s (16) & only has 5 ints. BUF will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick for the 2nd week & I doubt a BUF OL with 4 1st year starters that has given up 21 sacks TY will have an easy time with Mario Williams. BUF only had 1 drive over 30 yds LW & with Andre Johnson (bruised lung) expected to play here this game could get out of hand quickly.

PHIL’S FORECAST : HOSUTON 31 BUFFALO 17

SAN FRAN AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRAN 88
105
14
1
#14
INDY
102
285
33
1
#24

This game has the Colts #4 & #9 units (+4 turnovers) versus the 49ers #29 & #15 units (+4 turnovers). This is a real bad matchup with Alex Smith in his 1st start in almost 2 years with a new RT on the road vs a Colts defense allowing 80 ypg rushing (3.9) with an 8-21 ratio the L22 games. I like Frank Gore as an elite RB but aside from his 200+ yd game vs SEA he only has 66 total yds rushing (1.7) on the year. IND is clearly not letting up until they get the #1 seed in the AFC & Manning is 22-5 vs the NFC with a 66-17 TD/Int ratio.

PHIL’S FORECAST : indianapolis 38 san fran 17

 

 

 

ST LOUIS AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 121
180
14
2
#11
DETROIT
132
213
25
1
#30

On the surface this is the least exciting game of the week but this could have historical importance as if the Rams lose here I am not so sure they can win at all in 2009. The good news for DET is that they are off a bye, get Stafford back & are a better team than LY. Neither team has a good pass defense & I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a higher scoring game. STL has only scored 5 offensive TD’s TY while giving up 5 on returns. The Rams have had as many problems finding a healthy set of WR’s to field this year as they have had trying to get a group of OL. I think the more rested team with extra time to gameplan that has had to deal with a shutout loss for an extra week will come out ahead in the end.

PHIL’S FORECAST : DETROIT 28 ST LOUIS 20

 

OAKLAND AT SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 80
128
9
3
#26
SAN DIEGO
147
260
34
0
#4

SD has won 12 straight over the Raiders. The Chargers took a step in the right direction LW as they dominated the Chiefs with a 37-7 win & 403-203 yd edge. OAK was shutout 38-0 LW at home & Cable finally benched Russell after the 1H. SD has shaken up the defense the L2W to spur some better play out of disappointing starters & get an OAK team with shaken confidence. OAK hasn’t scored 14 pts since the season opener, only have 5 offensive TD’s all year & has been outscored 80-20 in the 1st & 3rd Qtrs combined which means the coaches don’t have a gameplan coming in & don’t make adjustments. SD has all the edges here & need a big division win to have any hope to catch up to DEN.

PHIL’S FORECAST : SAN DIEGO 31 OAKLAND 10

 

CAROLINA AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAROLINA 97
205
14
2
#32
ARIZONA
65
220
29
1
#15

I was impressed with how the Cardinals defense out-muscled the Giants offense LW. They kept Eli off balance & forced him into big errors at key times. They now return home vs a CAR defense that has risen from #23 to #4 over the L3W vs offenses ranked 24th or lower. TO’s have killed CAR TY & Delhomme has 3 int’s for every TD that he has thrown TY. ARZ plays defense with an attacking offense that puts up points on the scoreboard which forces teams to pass more & run less while making mistakes. ARZ is very familiar with Delhomme as this will be the 8th time since 2002 they have met which helps out the Cardinals coaching staff who didn’t get back until early Monday morning after the SNF game & I like the home team here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARIZONA 30 CAROLINA 21

 

 

 

CLEVELAND AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEVELAND 91
143
13
2
#1
CHICAGO
134
245
27
2
#6

Aside from Josh Cribbs there really isn’t anything going right for the Browns this year & its so bad that owner Randy Lerner who shuns the spotlight, had to make a public comment about backing the staff & the direction of the team. CHI is in a very foul mood here after getting blown out 45-10 vs CIN & Lovie Smith has juggled the OL, LB & CB’s here. CLE leads the NFL with 22 dropped passes which helps account for Derek Anderson having a 10.3 QBR on 3rd Dn & the Browns only having 3 TD’s in 18 Qtrs since the switch from Quinn. CLE has no punch on either side of the ball & 2009 is an extended preseason for them & I think the Bears get things back on track here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : CHICAGO 30 CLEVELAND 10

 

MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 99
160
23
2
#3
GREEN BAY
96
283
27
1
#17

Brett Favre returns to GB. MIN beat GB 30-23 on MNF as the Vikings defense pulled in 8 sacks, 1 safety & forced 2 TO’s. GB is off 2 big wins versus 2 of the worst teams in the NFL in DET & CLE (avg 448-144 in yd edges). Their OL is still a big question to me as they allowed 5 sacks to DET & LT Clifton will be a gametime decision & I expect Ctr Spitz to miss his 3rd straight game. Weather isn’t expected to be a factor & while the MIN defense won’t have crowd noise or turf on it’s side they are the better unit. GB’s #3 defensive ranking is inflated by DET & CLE while MIN has outplayed 2 tough teams in BAL & PIT. Favre is at his best in emotional situations & I am confident in the Vikings here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MINNESOTA 31 GREEN BAY 17

 

MIAMI AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 135
165
21
2
#18
NY JETS
158
183
24
2
#16

MIA beat the Jets 31-27 in the 1st meeting just 3 weeks ago with a 413-309 yd edge & the Jets were furious with themselves calling the Dolphins offense a bunch of gadgetry. Since then the Jets have lost NT Kris Jenkins & RB Leon Washington who was one of the better multi-skilled weapons in the NFL. They got right vs OAK LW & became the 1st team since the 1975 Bills to rush for 300 yds in B2B games. MIA is off a brutally tough loss to NO where they blew a 21 pt lead at home. Henne now has to make his 1st road start vs a Jets team that has traditionally dominated the game & I like how Rex Ryan said he’s “taking this game personally.”

PHIL’S FORECAST :  NY JETS 20 MIAMI 9

 

SEATTLE AT DALLAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEATTLE 86
198
19
2
#23
DALLAS
131
268
25
1
#5

Last year Dallas destroyed Seattle 34-9 with a 447-322 yd edge & tallied 7 sacks. The Cowboys are off a win vs a quality foe in the Falcons LW & now get an inconsistent SEA team. Both of SEA’s wins have been shutouts (STL & JAX) but 3 of their 4 losses have been by 13 or more points. In SEA’s defense they have had no OL stability (12 dif combos in 22 games) & injuries have hurt them on defense. DAL main advantage here their huge OL vs a smaller, faster front 7 that is without their best player on defense in MLB Tatupa. This is a game the Cowboys should & must win as they have PHI & GB on the road next to show they can be a consistent force in the NFC.

PHIL’S FORECAST : DALLAS 34 SEATTLE 17

 

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 99
250
25
2
#25
TENNESSEE
157
228
24
3
#31

The Titans are moving to Vince Young for the rest of the season & it makes sense as they have to know if he can indeed be their franchise QB. However, he didn’t get the benefit of a full bye weeks worth of snaps & wasn’t named #1 until halfway thru the Thursday practice sessions which means Fisher doesn’t have a lot of confidence in him. Both teams have very beat up secondaries & I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a shootout. Garrard is further along & has a reliable set of WR’s to work with finally & I don’t have a lot of faith in a TEN defense that is -10 in TO’s & will be on its 4th return specialist TY.

PHIL’S FORECAST : JACKSONVILLE 28 TENN 21

 

NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY GIANTS 115
208
21
2
#22
PHILADELPHIA
74
240
24
2
#19

The Giants come in off back to back losses with Eli hitting just 48% in his L2 games. The Giants only have 1 win this year vs a foe with a winning record & the media is starting to question if they are as good as they think. The Eagles dominated the MNF game vs WAS more than the final score indicated but they could be without RB Westbrook (concussion) here. Westbrook is the key to the offense & while McCoy did a good job LW I don’t have as much confidence in his pass blocking vs the Giants here. The Giants haven’t lost 3 in a row since 2006 & I think they pull out a close one here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NY GIANTS 24 PHILADELPHIA 20

 

A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase.  You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com
JOSH'S WEEK 9 FCS FORECAST