WEEK ONE TOP 25

WEEK ONE TOP 25 FORECASTS GO 20-3 (87%)!!!


PHIL STEELE'S TOP 25 FORECAST • WEEK ONE

#1 FLORIDA vs
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
Charleston Southern
-39/95
51/228
0/3
3.7
#1 Florida
374/369
330/225
65/62
1.5

Want to become an expert on Charleston Southern football? Just CLICK HERE to get a complete page on the Buccaneers. As you can see they have had 3 winning years the last 4. They did average just 23.1 ppg vs a FCS schedule last year and now take on the best defense in college football. My computer called for Charleston to have MINUS 9 points so I added those 9 to the 56 it projected for Florida. This will NOT  be one of the Gators “A” games. Remember if you like the information provided on CS, you can get the same half page on EVERY FCS team in my ACC/Big East Regional.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Florida 65 Charleston So 0

#3 OKLAHOMA vs #20 BYU

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

#20 BYU
22
305
20
3.7
#3 OKLAHOMA
158
345
37
2.6

A BYU win in this would open up the possibility of the MWC to be playing in the National Title game. Unfortunately, BYU is banged up on the offensive line and taking on the top defensive line in the country. Both teams are young on the offensive line and while QB Max Hall is capable of trading points with Bradford, he also takes on the much tougher defense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: † Oklahoma 41 Byu 24

#5 ALABAMA vs #7 VIRGINIA TECH

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

#7 VIRGINIA TECH
127
130
15
2.3
#5 ALABAMA
128
195
24
3

I expect this to be a low scoring tight defensive struggle and the team that makes fewer mistakes should win. Bama has an inexperienced QB and also loses their top RB but is loaded on defense (#2 my ratings) and special teams. These teams have met once the last 12 years (CLICK HERE). VT is a much stronger team than last year’s Orange Bowl champ with 15 returning starters and have more experience at QB with Tyrod Taylor having 10 career starts. They did lose their top RB Evans to injury so will likely be relying on 2 frosh at RB.
PHIL’S FORECAST: † Alabama 20
Virginia Tech 16

#9 OKLAHOMA STATE vs
#13 GEORGIA

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

#13 GEORGIA
138
270
30
3.1
#9 OKLAHOMA STATE
197
250
32
2.4

If you look at the QB, RB and home field edge than the Cowboys deserve to be a large favorite. Georgia however is underrated much like they were in 2005 when they won the SEC Title despite being picked third by the media in the East. In 2007 they were also picked 3rd by the media in the East but finished #2 in the country! Last year they had a big target on their back as the preseason #1 team and then lost their top OL and top DL to injury just prior to the year. This year they are very strong along the line of scrimmage and have one of the top defenses in the country. Joe Cox will surprise folks at QB and is not a fuzzy faced freshman but a 5th year senior. They have a stable of good RB’s and WR AJ Green. Mark Richt has the nation’s best record in opposing stadiums and Georgia can play the respect card here, they know everyone thinks they will lose this game. In 2007 Okla St was the trendy upset pick prior to the season but Georgia rolled over them 35-14 at home in the opener. The pressure is on Oklahoma St with a rare preseason Top Ten ranking and I will go out on a limb and call for the upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Georgia (+) 28
OKLAHOMA ST 27

#11 LSU at WASHINGTON

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

#11 LSU
208
195
32
2.1
WASHINGTON
132
210
21
3.1

In 1983 an unranked LSU, which would finish just 4-7 on the year, upset #9 Washington 40-14 in Death Valley. Can the Huskies pull off the same type of upset here? Washington should be a much improved team this year especially with QB Locker back and healthy. They have 18 returning starters and a new attitude under HC Steve Sarkesian. LSU is a legitimate Top 10 team, but this game will not be as easy as most folks think. I am surprised that my computer has the Huskies totaling 342 yards against a tough LSU defense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Lsu 30 WASHINGTON 20

#14 BOISE STATE vs #16 OREGON

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

# 16 OREGON
222
180
25
3.1
#14 BOISE STATE
128
315
33
2.9

This is one of 4 games between ranked teams on the opening weekend. Oregon fans have let me know in large volumes that I have their team rated lower than all of the other magazines. Boise actually has the best home record of the decade with just ONE regular season loss on the Blue turf. Last year they went into Oregon and led 37-13 in the 4Q. The Ducks are inexperienced on both the offensive and defensive lines and since Chip Kelly took over just before spring practices, 8 players have left the team. Kellen Moore hit 25-37 for 386 yards on the road as a rFr last year and is now at home and a soph. Here is the complete box score for last year’s game CLICK HERE. These are available on the TEAM PAGES for each team. Just go down to the 2008 results and click on the box score. I think Boise has a great shot at being the BCS buster this year and the longest journey begins with a single step but this is a large step on their trek towards an unbeaten season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 30 Oregon 20

#15 GEORGIA TECH vs JACKSONVILLE STATE

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

Jacksonville St
101
185
18
2.1
#15 Georgia Tech
374
185
38
2.7

To become an instant expert on Jacksonville St just CLICK HERE. Remember get that same coverage on all 125 FCS teams for just $6.99 (plus S&H) by clicking HERE. GT won their meeting 41-14 last year and to see how the individual QB’s, RB’s and WR’s fared in that game for GT you can CLICK HERE. GT has a huge game in just 5 days vs Clemson on deck and Jax St has 16 returning starters and has LSU transfer Ryan Perrilloux at QB. Unfortunately, Perrilloux is suspended for this game and we have all the FCS injuries updated right now CLICK HERE. Who will QB Jacksonville St here? You know if you read the page I provided for you up above.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA TECH 38 Jacksonville St 13

#19 UTAH vs UTAH STATE

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

UTAH STATE
72
188
18
3.4
#19 UTAH
184
258
36
2.7

Utah St almost made my list of Most Improved Teams in the country and Gary Andersen steps into a great situation. Andersen has inside knowledge of the Utah program having been the ass’t HC and DC there the last 5 years. He has 16 returning starters to work with and an underrated team. No one was a bigger fan of Utah last year than myself. I got beat up all summer long by BYU fans as my magazine was the only one that had Utah winning the MWC outright and they did not disappoint as they finished #2 in the country. My magazine was the only one that had them ranked at the start of the year and I had them in my Top 15. That was a very experienced team and this year they return just 12 starters including just 5 on the offense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 34 Utah St 17

#22 IOWA vs NORTHERN IOWA

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

N Iowa
56
105
8
1.8
#22 Iowa
199
305
35
2.7

Want to become an instant expert on Panthers football? Just CLICK HERE for a complete half page on Northern Iowa. As you just read Northern is the two time defending Missouri Valley Champ and their playoff loss last year was to eventual National Champ Richmond by a single point. They beat Iowa St two years ago but my computer shows Iowa having a fairly easy game. Iowa does have rival Iowa St on deck.  If you like the type of coverage that I give the FCS then please purchase my 136 page FCS preview which is included in the 300 pages ACC/Big East magazine and sells for just $6.99 (plus S&H) which is less then the price of a beer in some ballparks CLICK HERE.
PHIL’S FORECAST: IOWA 35 Northern Iowa 10

#24 NEBRASKA vs FAU

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

FLORIDA ATLANTIC
68
230
16
3.2
#24 NEBRASKA
252
270
43
2.5

Last year prior to the opener FAU coach Schnellenberger called out Texas and he paid the price in a 52-10 loss. For the most part Howie gives all his players a lot of time in games like this to better prepare his team for the upcoming conference schedule. The Huskers have some question marks at RB heading into the year and have a first time starter at QB. FAU has just 3 starters back on defense and in their last 12 games on the road vs BCS conference schools the Owls have lost by an AVERAGE of 46-8.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEBRASKA 45 Fau 17

 

#2 TEXAS vs ULM

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

ULM
70
105
4/20
3.2
#2 TEXAS
265
345
51/59
1.9

ULM is a team that could be bowl eligible this year but Texas rolls over non-conference foes and I have them projected to be in the title game at year’s end. My computer shows them with a 610-175 yard edge.                  
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 51 Ulm 6

#4 USC vs SAN JOSE ST

Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
SAN JOSE STATE
62
123
4
3.3
#4 USC
279
278
44
3.1

USC has a true frosh QB starting its opening game for the first time ever. They also are a very banged up team and have a HUGE game on deck vs Ohio State. That should keep the Spartans in this for a little while. These two have met twice in the last 12 years and you can view the box scores of each game by clicking HERE. As you can see USC only won by 11 and 10 but that was prior to Pete Carroll.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 41 San Jose St 10

#6 OHIO STATE vs NAVY

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

NAVY
201
10
10/27
3
#6 OHIO ST
199
260
33/31
2.5

My computer call for a 23 point Buckeye win but Navy should keep it tighter than that. I am concerned that Navy was dominated by both Pitt and Notre Dame (until some late garbage yds and pts) but they are at full strength and will be sky high for this rare trip to Columbus. Last year the week prior to playing USC the Buckeyes RB Wells was injured so Tressel should be cautious the week prior to the make-or-break game of OSU’s season. These two last met way back in 1981 in the Liberty Bowl.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Navy 17 (+) OHIO ST 31

#8 MISSISSIPPI at MEMPHIS

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

#8 MISSISSIPPI
214
230
38
2.4
MEMPHIS
121
235
18
2.6

Ole Miss has not been ranked in the preseason Top 10 since 1970 when Archie Manning was their QB. They have an unusual amount of pressure on them, one year after entering the season with no hype coming off a 3-9 season in 2007. In last year’s meeting Memphis rushed for 188 yards which was a season high for rush yards allowed by Ole Miss. Memphis actually had a 453-438 yard edge with Ole Miss still winning 41-24. Memphis has a top-notch RB in Curtis Steele but has just one starter back on the offensive line and they take on my #4 rated defensive line. Ole Miss has a bye next week and my computer calls for them to have a 20 point road win. There will be plenty of Ole Miss support as these 2 schools are less than 85 miles apart.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Mississippi 34 MEMPHIS 20

#9 PENN STATE vs AKRON

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

AKRON
60
215
16
2.9
#9 PENN STATE
275
270
44
2.4

Akron has their first game in their brand new home stadium next week and they have to be excited about that. These teams have met three times in the last 12 years and Penn St has won by an average of 47-17. For a complete box score from all three games all you have to do is CLICK HERE. Remember if the teams met in the last 12 years you can go right now to any of this year’s matchups (in any week) and get the last 12 years breakdown. Penn St won their non-conference games by an average of 53-10 last year and that included playing Oregon St! Akron has some weapons including QB Jacquemain but the Lions roll here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 48 Akron 17

#12 CALIFORNIA vs MARYLAND

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

MARYLAND
95
125
14
3
#12 CALIFORNIA
260
285
39
2.2

For two teams that finished with almost identical records last year and each winning their bowl game, you might be surprised to see my computer calling for a 23 point Cal win especially with Maryland having won last year’s meeting. I am not surprised. Maryland caught Cal in a great situation last year as the Bears were feeling pretty full of themselves after a 66-3 wipeout of Wash St and they had also beaten Mich St at home in the opener. They were traveling cross country and Maryland made sure the game started at 12 noon eastern which of course made it 9 am to Cal players’ body clocks. Not surprisingly Cal officials have set this game for 7:00 at night which is 10:00 body clock time for the Terp players. If Cal has a strength this year it is their line play. They have my #10 rated offensive line and #10 rated defensive line. If Maryland has a weakness it is experience along the lines. The Terps have just 27 career starts back on the offensive line and 10 career starts back on the defensive line with just 14 career starts back at LB. Inexperienced teams usually struggle the most in their first road game and this is a long and unusual trip for them. With a huge edge along the line of scrimmage, my computer shows Cal with a dominating 260-95 rush edge. RB Jahvid Best should have a big day and last year Cal, with a less experienced Oline, averaged 5.9 ypc rush (221 ypg) at home while the Terps, with a more experienced front 7, yielded 184 ypg rush and 4.44 ypc on the road. Maryland does have a solid backfield with QB Turner, RB Scott and some other talented RB’s and my 1st Team All-ACC LB Alex Wujciak. Last year they played great against ranked teams as they upset Cal, Clemson, Wake Forest and North Carolina and only lost to BC by 5 in their 5 matches vs ranked foes. Wrapping it all up, I look for a much different game than last year with Cal playing with legitimate revenge, controlling the line of scrimmage and having a great scheduling advantage while Maryland is traveling from one coast to the other and playing at an unusual time.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 41 Maryland 13

#18 FLORIDA STATE
vs MIAMI FLORIDA

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

MIAMI, FL
153
205
29
3.3
#18 FLORIDA ST
157
220
27
2.7

Last year’s game was not as close as the final as Florida St led 31-10 in the 3Q with a 286-52 yard edge at the half and that was on the road! My computer actually gives Miami a slight edge on offense and defense and a good size edge on special teams. Miami was a Freshmen/Sophomore team last year and is now a year older and to me they may have the most athletic talent in the ACC as they are a big and fast group. Miami does have some injuries along the DL but I will call for an upset on this National TV game. Keep in mind on the team page when you click on an opponent you can get the last 12 years results.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI, FL 24 Florida St 23

#21 NORTH CAROLINA vs
THE CITADEL

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

The Citadel
6
190
12
2.1
#21 North Carolina
224
270
43
2.4

CLICK HERE to become an instant expert on the Bulldogs. I pick them 6th in the Southern Conference. North Carolina does have 4 big games on deck. These teams have not met since 1986 and the Tar Heels should have no problems here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 43 The Citadel 10

#23 NOTRE DAME vs NEVADA

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

NEVADA
208
180
22
3
#23 NOTRE DAME
157
375
39
2.6

If Notre Dame looks ahead to Michigan next week they would be in trouble as this is the best Nevada team in quite some time. The Wolfpack has dangerous QB Colin Kaepernick and a tough D. My computer shows ND rolling up a 532-388 yard edge and winning by 17 and I agree.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NOTRE DAME 40 Nevada 23

#25 KANSAS vs
NORTHERN COLORADO

 
Yds
Rush

Yds
Pass

PTS

TO's

N Colorado
51
175
6.5
3
#25 Kansas
204
390
46
1.9

Become an instant expert on Northern Colorado by CLICKING HERE. How would you like this exact amount of information on all 125 FCS teams for just $6.99 (plus S&H)?? CLICK HERE TO ORDER a magazine with 136 pages on the FCS! My computer shows Kansas with 594 yards and Northern with just 226.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS 49 Northern Colorado 6

PHIL’S UPSET PICKS OF THE WEEK:
Baylor 27 WAKE FOREST 24
OHIO 23 Connecticut 20
Idaho 24 NEW MEXICO ST 23

BRAND NEW THIS YEAR!  PHIL FORECASTS EVERY GAME ON THE SCHEDULE ON FRIDAY! CHECK OUT MY DAILY BLOG ON FRIDAY FOR A FORECASTED SCORE ON EVERY GAME FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEING PLAYED THAT SATURDAY!!