Daily Blog - September 23rd

Alabama has won 17 consecutive SEC openers. Last year Bama got two long IR TD’s in the 1H and while Arkansas had a 232-227 yd edge Bama led 35-7 and Ark was also SOD at the 1. Bama rolled up 328 rush in the 49-14 win. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS. Bama’s opening win over Virginia Tech is more impressive than the 34-24 score indicates as Alabama outgained VT 498-155. Bama is off 2 Sun Belt teams while Ark just lost a 52-41 shootout with Georgia. QB Mallett set an Ark record with 408 pass yards. Three weeks into the season Alabama has the highest average game in my individual game grades and is that computer’s #1 team in the country.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 37 Arkansas 20

There have been five outright upsets in this series the last 10 years (CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS).  Penn St is playing with legit revenge as they led 23-14 after 3Q’s but Iowa got a FG on the last play to knock PSU out of the BCS Title game last year and  won their last home game vs Iowa 27-7 in ‘07 with a 489-194 yard edge. QB Clark avg 253 (67%) with an 8-3 ratio. RB Royster (236, 5.2) had his first 100 yd gm this year vs the Owls. Iowa beat Arizona 27-17 with an impressive 19-8 FD edge limiting the NCAA’s leading rusher Grigsby to 75 yd (58 on 1 carry) and the Cats QB tandem to 10-25 for 105. It will be a raucous nighttime crowd at Beaver Stadium but Penn St’s star LB’s Bowman and Lee are both injured which could hamper their defense.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 24 Iowa 10

LSU has outscored Miss St by an avg of 42-12 over the last 9 and is 16-1 in the series. LSU RB Charles Scott had 141 rush, 2 TD vs MSU last year. LSU is off an easy 31-3 win over Louisiana (though just 330-272 yd edge) but does have big games vs Georgia and Florida on deck. LW MSU held Vandy to just 157 yds total off in a 15-3 win that ended an 8 game road losing streak. LSU has gone thru the motions the first 3 games but start to play to their talent level this week.  

CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEAR MATCHUPS

UM is 2-4 vs VT and has topped 16 pts just once since 2003. Last year was a defensive struggle in Miami with VT having a 250-247 yd edge. It was tied 7-7 at the half and Miami did lead 16-7 mid-4Q in a 16-14 win. Miami has opened with back to back wins over ranked opponentss for the first time since 1988. QB Harris is averaging 328 ypg (70) with a 5-2 ratio. The Canes D held GT to just 228 ttl yds. VT was held to just 155 total yds vs Bama in the opener and 11 FD's vs Neb last week. VT needed an 88 yd drive with 1:51 left to defeat Neb last week. QB Taylor is avg 148 (48%) with a 3-1 ratio. RB Williams has rushed for 342 yds (6.8). That Miami win over Florida St looks a little more impressive right now and using the average individual game rankings, Miami has been the #2 team in the country and are capable of winning in a tough environment.
CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEAR MATCHUPS

PHIL'S FORECAST: Miami 23 VIRGINIA TECH 17

The visitor is  8-1 with Illinois winning 4 of 5 in Columbus including ‘07 when they KO’d the #1 Bucks 28-21. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS.  IL outgained OSU 455-354 in last year’s 30-20 home loss as the Bucks allowed their season high in yards. Illinois did lose their top D player LB Wilson (neck surg) for the ssn. Last week QB Pryor had his best performance of the ssn (372 ttl yd and 4 TD) but the Bucks running gm is still a concern as the top performance by a RB thus far is Herron’s 72 yd vs Navy in the opener. OSU has a large edge on D (#6-69) and ST (#9-97).

  PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 34 Illinois 24

TCU just traveled to the East Coast and dispatched UVA 30-14 (but Clemson is a much tougher team than Virginia). Both teams have excellent D’s (TCU #7 vs CU #9). CU QB Parker is avg 174 ypg (47%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Spiller, who sat out the 4Q last week with a recurring toe injury and was only at 85% to start the game, is avg 210 all-purpose yards per game. TCU QB Dalton is avg 207 ypg (74%) with a 3-2 ratio. RB Turner has rushed for 324 yds (9.0!). I feel Clemson is still underrated as they have a dominating defensive front 7 (Boston College 2 yards TOTAL offense with 5 minutes left in 3Q) and they have two of the fastest players in the country in RB Spiller and WR Ford who can hurt you on offense and in the return game.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 20 Tcu 13

ASU was sky high for last year’s HG in the desert but Georgia was never challenged winning 27-10 (-7). This time Georgia gets the large edge of ASU making their first trip to the deep South this decade. ASU is off of 2 creampuffs and has QB Sullivan (193 ypg, 57%, 1-0 ratio) making his 1st career road start. Georgia actually almost gained as many yards last week (530) as they did in the first 2 wks (565) combined. Stats lie here due to the strength of schedule (UGA #6, ASU #119) Georgia has been outgained by a 406-365 clip while ASU has dominated the yardage category with a 373-150 average edge. Georgia faces their easiest opponent of the season and this is the Sun Devils first test and the Bulldogs will show they are the much stronger team.    LAST 12 YEARS         

PHIL'S FORECAST: georgia 37 arizona st 13

Louisiana just played a physical LSU tm on the road, holding their own (only outgained by 58 yds) and makes another tough trip but also has a bye on deck. QB Masson is avg 209 ypg (56%) with a 3-3 ratio. RB Sails has 240 yds (4.3). Neb QB Lee is avg 230 ypg (61%) with a 6-3 ratio. RB Helu has 381 yds (6.6). Nebraska has already beaten 2 stronger SBC teams in Ark St and Florida Atlantic by an average of 44-6 and off a loss should have no troubles here.

While Texas is off their big revenge win vs Texas Tech, they have a bye on deck and will remember UTEP only trailed them 28-13 in the 4Q last year. UTEP did have a 412-404 yard edge in the Horns 42-13 road win. UTEP QB Vittatoe has not looked as good as I expected and is averaging  201 ypg (55%) with a 1-1 ratio. QB McCoy is avg 286 ypg (68%) with a 6-4 ratio but still hasn’t had a Heisman type game (just 205 yds last week and a 1-2 ratio).CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS

PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 52 Utep 17

Cal’s offense has been dominant avg 48.7 points per game led by Heisman hopeful RB Best (137 rush ypg, 7.8, 8 TD). Last week OU QB Masoli completed just 4-16 for 95 yds (3 TO’s). This one will be won in the trenches. Oregon is inexperienced along both the Offensive and defensive lines and I rate Cal in the top ten of the country on both the offensive and defensive lines. Cal has won 4 of the last 5 (CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEARS MATCHUPS) .

Phil's FORECAST: California 31 OREGON 17

Wash St  benefitted last week  from 4 SMU int’s (2 ret for TD) in the 2H and OT for the comeback win in QB Lobbestael’s 1st start of ‘09 (239 yds, 46%, 2-2 ratio). USC is off a loss and beat Wash St 69-0 last year and the backups got plenty of playing time. They have a huge game against Cal on deck but this one is no contest. CLICK HERE FOR LAST 12 YEAR MATCHUPS

PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 55 Wash St 3

First meeting. Oklahoma St got back on track last week vs Rice, the week after being shocked by Houston. Surprisingly they were outgained 301-227 but many of Rice’s yards came after OSU was up 28-3 in the 3Q and the Cowboys were without RB Hunter. While OSU will want to get their passing game on track, last year they called the dogs off after scoring 57 by the end of the 3Q. Grambling St is off a 27-17 win over Jackson St, where the defense recorded 2 safeties and a pick 6. They have a big game vs divisional foe Prarie View A&M, their priority will be to get out of this game healthy.

PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 42 Grambling 7

1st meeting. Last week the Noles crushed #7 BYU 54-28. It was the most pts they scored on the road since ‘03 and most rush yds (313) since the ‘05 Gator Bowl. FSU’s offense has been impressive facing our #17 (Miami, FL) and #41 (BYU) defenses and now faces our #33 (allowing 228 ypg). Florida St has faced the much tougher schedule (#14-120) with USF basically facing 3 FCS opponents. USF lost QB Grothe (BE all-time total yards leader) for the season to a torn ACL. RFr Daniels (PS#76) will make his first start here (check out my Tuesday blog for details on him). FSU will be wearing all white jerseys for the 1st “White Out” in program history. I look for Daniels to have a solid year but first road starts are always tough and USF is taking a big step up in strength of opponent.

PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 34 Usf 14