Daily Blog • April 14th, 2010

In Monday’s Blog, I analyzed which method of determining who plays the toughest schedule is more accurate; mine or the NCAA. I compared the preseason predictions of both and concluded that my method is superior because it takes two major factors into account. The first is my 9 sets of Power Ratings. This ensures that an FCS team like William & Mary who was 11-3 last year is rated much lower than Oklahoma which was 8-5 in 2009. The second factor is the amount of home and away games played. As an example, this year some teams will have as many as 8 home games, while others play as many as 8 on the road.

Today’s blog will take a closer look at the toughest schedule debate by looking at this year’s opponents’ win/loss record from the 2009 season.

At the beginning of the season, the NCAA usually releases a rating of each team’s schedule based on their opponents’ win/loss record from the previous season. This is a good method but it does have its obvious flaws.

The first flaw is basing the ratings on opponents’ records from the previous season. Let’s look at a couple of examples. At the start of 2007 I had Illinois rated as one of the top teams in the Big Ten and they went on to knock off #1 Ohio St and play in the ROSE BOWL. My ratings had them as an above avg opponent at the start of the year and they finished the regular season #13 (AP). Using 2006’s record as the criteria for determining the strength of an opps’ schedule, however you would count them as a 2-10 team!

The second flaw is basing it on pure overall records. If a team plays a FCS (IAA) school that was 11-1 in 2007, that would have counted as a MUCH tougher game in the NCAA ratings than facing a team like Alabama who was 7-6 in ‘07 but #1 at the end of ‘08 regular season! My ratings had Bama ranked as a much tougher team than an FCS foe.

Below is a chart of all 120 teams and the combined 2009 opponents’ records from last year. It is ranked in order of highest % of opponent wins (or toughest schedule) to lowest % of opponent wins (or easiest schedule). This is the same chart that will be printed in this year's college preview magazine.

2010's Opponent Winning %

(Based on 2009 Records)

 
Foe
Foe
Foe
Tms W/
Rank
Wins
Losses
Win %
Win Rec
1
LSU
98
56
63.64%
9
2
Minnesota
96
55
63.58%
8
3
Iowa St
97
56
63.40%
9
4
S Carolina
98
58
62.82%
11
5
Miss St
96
57
62.75%
9
6
N Carolina
97
60
61.78%
9
7
Virginia Tech
95
59
61.69%
8
8
Duke
94
60
61.04%
8
9
San Jose St
100
65
60.61%
8
10
Pittsburgh
92
60
60.53%
8
11
Wyoming
91
60
60.26%
6
12
Miami, Fl
92
61
60.13%
9
12
Auburn
92
61
60.13%
9
14
Washington St
91
61
59.87%
10
15
Alabama
84
57
59.57%
8
16
Tennessee
91
62
59.48%
8
17
Texas A&M
91
63
59.09%
8
18
USF
89
62
58.94%
8
19
Illinois
90
63
58.82%
7
19
Oregon St
90
63
58.82%
8
21
NC State
91
64
58.71%
9
22
Syracuse
81
57
58.70%
7
23
Oklahoma
90
64
58.44%
8
23
UCLA
90
64
58.44%
8
25
UNLV
97
69
58.43%
9
26
Penn St
88
63
58.28%
6
27
Michigan
87
63
58.00%
6
28
Georgia Tech
87
64
57.62%
7
29
Vanderbilt
89
66
57.42%
10
30
Washington
88
66
57.14%
9
31
Louisville
86
65
56.95%
8
32
Iowa
86
66
56.58%
7
32
Notre Dame
86
66
56.58%
6
32
Florida St
86
66
56.58%
7
32
New Mexico
86
66
56.58%
7
36
Mississippi
85
66
56.29%
8
37
Temple
87
68
56.13%
7
38
Miami, Oh
86
68
55.84%
7
39
Connecticut
83
66
55.70%
7
40
Arkansas
84
67
55.63%
7
41
Florida
86
69
55.48%
9
42
Baylor
83
67
55.33%
5
42
West Virginia
83
67
55.33%
7
44
Texas Tech
84
70
54.55%
8
45
Rutgers
81
68
54.36%
7
46
Arizona St
81
69
54.00%
8
47
Oklahoma St
82
70
53.95%
5
47
Kansas St
82
70
53.95%
8
47
Virginia
82
70
53.95%
8
50
Louisiana Tech
83
71
53.90%
7
51
Colorado
82
71
53.59%
7
52
Arizona
80
70
53.33%
7
53
Marshall
82
72
53.25%
8
54
Tulane
80
71
52.98%
8
55
Memphis
81
72
52.94%
7
56
Michigan St
78
70
52.70%
4
57
Ohio St
80
72
52.63%
6
58
Toledo
81
73
52.60%
7
59
Maryland
79
72
52.32%
7
60
Texas
80
73
52.29%
7
61
Northwestern
78
72
52.00%
5
62
Nebraska
78
73
51.66%
6
62
Colorado St
78
73
51.66%
7
64
Rice
79
74
51.63%
6
65
California
77
73
51.33%
8
66
Georgia
78
74
51.32%
7
67
Nevada
84
80
51.22%
6
68
Stanford
76
73
51.01%
6
69
Fresno St
77
74
50.99%
5
69
Bowling Green
77
74
50.99%
5
71
Air Force
76
74
50.67%
6
71
Utah
76
74
50.67%
6
73
East Carolina
77
75
50.66%
7
73
Utah St
77
75
50.66%
6
75
TCU
75
74
50.34%
7
76
Kansas
77
76
50.33%
6
76
Wake Forest
77
76
50.33%
7
76
SMU
77
76
50.33%
6
79
San Diego St
75
75
50.00%
6
79
Cincinnati
75
75
50.00%
7
81
Southern Miss
74
75
49.66%
6
82
BYU
74
76
49.33%
6
82
WKU
74
76
49.33%
5
84
Indiana
73
75
49.32%
5
85
Louisiana
74
77
49.01%
6
86
Navy
73
76
48.99%
4
87
USC
80
84
48.78%
6
88
Hawaii
79
83
48.77%
6
89
UAB
73
79
48.03%
7
89
Boise St
73
79
48.03%
6
91
Kentucky
72
78
48.00%
7
91
Florida Atlantic
72
78
48.00%
4
93
Wisconsin
71
77
47.97%
3
94
Idaho
78
85
47.85%
5
95
Clemson
72
79
47.68%
7
96
Tulsa
72
80
47.37%
6
97
Missouri
71
79
47.33%
5
98
ULM
70
78
47.30%
6
99
Ball St
68
78
46.58%
4
100
FIU
69
80
46.31%
4
101
C Michigan
69
81
46.00%
6
102
Boston College
68
80
45.95%
4
103
Kent St
68
81
45.64%
5
104
Oregon
68
82
45.33%
7
104
New Mexico St
68
82
45.33%
4
106
Purdue
67
81
45.27%
3
106
Houston
67
81
45.27%
6
108
Arkansas St
67
82
44.97%
4
109
E Michigan
67
83
44.67%
4
110
UCF
66
82
44.59%
4
111
North Texas
65
83
43.92%
3
112
Army
65
84
43.62%
4
113
Akron
64
84
43.24%
5
113
Troy
64
84
43.24%
4
115
W Michigan
64
85
42.95%
4
116
N Illinois
63
85
42.57%
4
117
Ohio
62
85
42.18%
4
118
UTEP
59
89
39.86%
4
119
Middle Tenn
58
89
39.46%
2
120
Buffalo
59
91
39.33%
6

Using last year's records for their opponents, LSU plays the toughest schedule this year with their opponents having 63.64 win % last year. Overall LSU faces 9 teams that had a winning record in '09. The Tigers open up in the Georgia Dome against North Carolina and also play West Virginia in non-conf play. In SEC play they have to travel to Auburn, Florida and Arkansas who all won at least 8 games in '09.

Minnesota's 2010 opponents had a combined 63.58% win % in '09. The Gophers hsave to travel to Middle Tennessee (10-3 in '09) in the opener and also play USC in non-conferennce action. In conference play Minnesota gets Penn St, Ohio St and Iowa at home with road games at Wisconsin and Michigan St. The Gophers avoid Indiana and Michigan who were a combined 2-14 in conference play last year.

South Carolina plays 11 teams that had a winning record in 2009 while Middle Tennessee only plays two teams. According to their opponents win/loss record Purdue plays the easiest schedule (#106) among BCS schools while San Jose St (#9) plays the toughest schedule among non-BCS schools.

Again these are not my toughest schedule rankings so let’s pick out some teams to show you the flaws of just using last year’s overall opponent records. Based on 2009’s opponent records San Jose St plays the 9th toughest schedule. While they do play at Alabama, Wisconsin and Utah in non-conference, they also play two FCS foes in Southern Utah and UC Davis who were a combined 11-11 last year. The Spartans also play in the WAC conference, which will only have one Top 25 team at the start of the year. Does this sound like the #9 toughest schedule to you? Despite the three tough non-conference road games, I know a few BCS schools that would like to play 10 non-BCS teams this season.

According to their opponents win/loss record from 2009 Temple plays the 37th toughest schedule while Oregon takes on an easy #104 slate.  Oregon’s cupcake schedule has them facing all 9 Pac-10 foes including road games at Cal, USC and Oregon St and an early non-conf road game at Tennessee. Meanwhile the Owls in addition to their MAC schedule get Villanova and Connecticut at home in non-conference with road games at Army and Penn St.  Do you think Temple’s schedule is 67 spots tougher than Oregon’s?

Here are some other interesting tidbits when looking at who plays the toughest schedule…

Teams that faced the most ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked when played)

6-Alabama, Oklahoma and Oregon

5-Georgia Tech, Miami, Fl, Vanderbilt, Mississippi St, Michigan, Nebraska, Virginia, Oregon St, USC, Arkansas, South Carolina, Washington St, Indiana and USF

Teams that faced the fewest ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked when played) Bowl Teams

1-Akron, Toledo, North Texas, Hawaii, Eastern Michigan, Temple, Kansas St, Florida Atlantic, ULM, Marshall, Houston, Pittsburgh and Idaho

0-Buffalo, Ohio, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, UAB, Army, Ball St, Kent St, Middle Tennessee and WKU

Teams that faced the most ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked at season’s end)

6-Florida St
5-Alabama, Virginia, Oklahoma, Arizona, Georgia Tech. Michigan St and Mississippi St

Teams that faced the fewest ranked opponents in 2009 (ranked at season’s end)

1-Eastern Michigan, Temple, Florida Atlantic, ULM, Houston, Ohio, Idaho and North Texas

0-UAB, Army, Ball St, Central Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Kent St, Western Michigan, WKU and Southern Miss

There were three teams did not face a ranked opponent either at the time the game was played or at season’s end. (Army, Central Michigan and WKU)

Southern Miss faced two opponents (Kansas #20 and Houston #15) that were ranked when the game was played but none at season’s end.

Florida St played just three opponents that were ranked at the time of the game (BYU #7, Georgia Tech #22 and Florida #1) but ended up playing six teams that finished in the AP Top 25 (Florida #3, BYU #12, Georgia Tech #13, Miami, Fl #19, Clemson #24 and West Virginia #25).