Daily Blog • December 11th

 


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS: 91-67 58% This Year!
OAKLAND AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAK 138
195
21
1.2
#10
JAX 173
213
23
2.0
#8

Both tms are off huge div wins with the run game setting the tempo which kept their opp’s off rythym. OAK is 2-6 vs non-div foe TY losing by 7 ppg and their QB’s have a 8-12 TD/INT ratio now they have to go to the East Coast where they are 5-17 in 1 pm est early games. JAX dominated the Titans LW with 24 rushes on the first 29 plays. They are 4-4 vs a non-div foe and have played a tougher sked overall on the year. The only problem for the Jaguars in this game is the potential look-ahead to a huge AFC South Champ game at IND next week. I will go with the Jags who have their 7th str home sellout this year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 30 OAKLAND 20

 

 NEW ENGLAND AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NE 91
223
26
1.0
#11
CHI 117
273
25
2.0
#7

The Patriots served notice that despite their #31 defense, they are best team in the AFC. This pass heavy team will have a tough time with a torn-up Soldier Field with wind gusts over 40 mph with a wind chill below zero. Brady is now 6-1 vs Top 10 defenses and has a 13-4 TD/INT ratio vs those tms. CHI has had the benefit of facing 2 3rd-string QB’s in the L/3 weeks but only have 1 INT to show for it. I’ll go with the Patriots as Belichick will have his defense prepared for Martz’ “land-mark” oriented offense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 24 CHICAGO 17

 

NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NYG 105
203
22
2.5
#25
MIN 124
215
21
2.7
#21

Eli has struggled vs the Vikings going 0-4 while avg 206 pass ypg 52% with a 2-9 ratio.  The Giants had a dominating get-right win and are also getting healthier as LT Diehl returns to reinforce a OL that hasn’t given up a sack in 5 weeks. The Giants also hope to get WR Hicks and Smith back. Favre and Harvin are game-time decisions and while the Vikings are 2-0 under Frazier they only beat WAS by 4 who the Giants beat by 24. I’ll go with the healthier road team that hasn’t locked up a playoff spot vs a Vikings team that is 0-6 vs a foe with a winning record this year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 MINNESOTA 20

 

ATLANTA AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATL 142
208
34
1.3
#12
CAR 107
205
14
2.1
#15

This is the 3rd road game in 4 weeks for the Falcons who own the top seed in the NFC and have a long trip to SEA on deck. They are getting a demoralized Panthers defense that will be without #2 CB Gamble, #2 Nickel Munnerlyn. Fox has disconnected himself from the front office and ownership who sent out a letter this week to season ticket holders apologizing for the 1-11 season. Fox dismissed the letter and blamed the lack of talent on the roster. Clausen is 0-6 as the starter and only has 1 passing TD while ATL is healthier has the most balanced offense in the NFC and is still playing for homefield advantage throughout.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 CAROLINA 14

 

ST LOUIS AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STL 89
195
16
1.7
#22
NO 119
315
30
1.1
#18

The Saints are a game and half behind the Falcons for the NFC South and have the obvious talent edges with the #2 and #17 units (+1 TO’s) vs a Rams #17 and #21 units the L/4 weeks. After Thursday’s practice HC Payton has declared his team to be its healthiest its been at any point late in the year in his tenure. LW vs CIN, they had a season-high penalties and a season-low 3rd downs (1 of 8) and Payton worked them hard in practice this week to fix that. NO is 4th in the NFL outgaining foes by 77 ypg at home but their -6 TO’s only have them with a 2.5 ppg edge. Bradford should already cash his bonus check for being the OFF ROY and has only 2 INT in his L/7 gms with 242 pass att’s while the rest of the NFL has 217. STL only has pulled 4 int’s on the rd TY and they lost starting weakside LB Diggs LW. The Saints have scored 30 or more in 4 str gms while the Rams have only done that twice TY and are 1-3 vs foes that are .500 or better TY. Look for the Saints to win by 2+ TD’s.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 34 ST LOUIS 14

 

MIAMI AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIA 91
136
12
2.0
#30
NYJ 125
225
21
1.0
#2

The Jets are one off one of the most embarrassing defeats in the history of the franchise which prompted Ryan to bury a game ball next to the practice field on Tuesday. Sanchez had 256 yds (54%) with 3 TD’s in the first meeting TY in a Jets win. Henne is 8-4 avg 211 ypg (61%) but with a 9-13 ratio on the road as a starter. The Dolphins expect WR Marshall to return after missing 3 gms with a hamstring sprain but #2 WR Hartline is expected to miss. I’ll call for the Jets to get the bounce back win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 20 MIAMI 17

 

KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KC 153
163
19
1.3
#16
SD 102
233
26
0.9
#32

The Chiefs are 2.5 games ahead of SD in the AFC West right now and a win here would eliminate the Chargers from winning the Div title. KC did win the prev meeting earlier TY when they had 219 KR/PR yds incl a 94 yd PR for a TD (outgained 389-197). With QB Cassel probably out for the Chiefs after surgery earlier this week, the Chargers get the must-win here and make the race interesting down the stretch.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 28 KANSAS CITY 13

 

 

 
CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CIN 42
220
15
2.5
#29
PIT 133
245
30
1.7
#1

The Steelers are very beat-up after they stole a win from the Ravens on Sunday night. While RT Adams is hopeful here, TE Miller is out with a concussion and #2 TE Spaeth who has missed the L/2 gms with a concussion himself. The Steelers are playing for the #2 seed in the AFC for the rest of the year while the Bengals have lost 9 str being outgained by 35 ypg and outscored by 8 ppg in the process. CIN’s defense is giving up 23 or more ppg in 8 of the 9 gms in the losing streak as their defense is crumbling from injury. Look for the Steelers to go up big early and run the ball at will half-way thru the 3Q to close out the game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 31 CINCINNATI 13

CLEVELAND AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLE 169
173
23
2.0
#4
BUF 128
215
19
3.0
#24

This is another game where weather will be a huge factor. With a rain/snow mix as the notoriously windy Ralph Wilson Stadium will host 20+ mph winds. BUF OL has been severely depleted the L/2 weeks, They will have their #3 Center, #4 RG and a very-beat up LT taking the field here. CLE’s DL had a field day with MIA’s weak interior OL holding them to 50% passing with 3 sks on the day. BUF has given up 15 gms of 150 yds or more rushing in the L/28 gms with an avg of 217 ypg rushing with a 5.3 ypc in those games. Look for Hillis to dominate this game and become the 3rd Browns RB in history with over 1,000 yd rushing and 11 TD’s.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND 34 BUFFALO 23

GREEN BAY AT DETROIT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GB 116
258
31
1.0
#28
DET 101
230
19
1.9
#5

Rodgers has 5 str gms with a QBR of 105.0 or more vs the Lions who have given up a QBR of 117.0 or more 3 str weeks (8-0 TD/Int ratio) and they have allowed 78% comp in that span. GB’s #4 offense found balance with RB Starks who had 73 yds (4.1). DET’s defense had two key losses with CB Smith who leads the team with 5 interceptions and DE Vanden Bosch landing on IR. Stanton will get another start and despite LW’s close gm only had 35 yds passing the 2H. Rodgers had 142 yds (90%) in the 2H vs the 49ers and 2 TD’s. Look for the Packers who despite their record are on the outside of the playoff chase looking in to log a huge win here vs an overmatched Lions defense.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 31 DETROIT 16

TAMPA BAY AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TB 145
185
23
1.7
#17
WAS 111
248
17
2.0
#14

Despite being always sold-out the Redskins are only 6-12 at home. Shanahan has had his hands full trying to rebuild a franchise hamstrung by bad free agency and draft picks. They actually have a clear-health edge here as TB only has 1 offensive starter left moving their G to C and both Guards ore on IR. McNabb who has looked uncomfortable TY for the majority is completing 58% of his passes with a 12-15 ratio and gets a Bucs defense that is #30 in sacks. TB has also lost its best CB and its starting SS in the last 2 weeks. With that being said, Tampa gets the speed edge here and QB Freeman has looked more comfortable and look for them to pull out a 4Q win like they have done so many times this year.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 23 WASHINGTON 13

SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEA 64
243
20
1.2
#3
SF 139
268
25
1.4
#19

This is a key matchup for the feeble NFC West as SEA has to keep pace with STL and SF is eliminated with a loss. SEA could be without #1 WR Williams (52 rec 654 yds), #2 WR Obimanu (22 rec 430 yds) and LG Pitts is expected to miss as well. SF is going to their 3rd different offensive system TY with the return of Alex Smith as w/out Gore they are going to run the spread which they ran LY at the end of the season. SEA was 5-2 vs the 49ers but are notoriously a bad road team. This is one of a few gms where weather is not supposed to be a factor and desperate teams have a tendency to surprise at the end of the year and I’ll call for the 49ers by 10.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRAN 24 SEATTLE 14

 

DENVER AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DEN 139
235
27
1.5
#26
ARZ 102
213
19
3.8
#6

DEN is off to their worst start since 1990 and their worst 22 game stretch since 1970-71. HC McDaniels was waived after losing the locker room. RB coach Studesville is the interim HC and is not yielding to public pressure to play Tebow here. DEN’s problems center around their #27 defense which is #29 in scoring. Orton has been a solid  QB TY avg 291 pass ypg (60%) with a 20-6 ratio. DEN lucks out by taking on ARZ here who have been outgained by 95 ypg (31st) -3 TO’s and losing by a 28-11 margin the L/4 weeks. ARZ is being forced to field rookie 1-AA John Skelton who has been the #3 QB all year. The Cardinals are paying dearly for not spending on their FA’s this past offseason and I have rarely seen a team implode losing one player (Warner) as badly as they have. I’ll call for Studesville to get his first win and probably only win as Bronco coach this year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 23 ARIZONA 17