Daily Blog • February 24, 2010

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer's projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in '09 compared to '08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today's blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in pass offense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be happy with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Pass Offense 2009

Pre-Season Projection
Final Rankings
Rank Team
1
New Mexico
2
Syracuse
3
Notre Dame
4
Auburn
5
UCF
6
Hawaii
7
Wyoming
8
Michigan
9
Pittsburgh
10
California
11
Tennessee
12
Kentucky
13
Air Force
14
Stanford
15
SMU
116
Ball St
117
Kansas St
118
Missouri
119
New Mexico St
120
Rice
Rank
Team
09 Pass Off
08 Pass Def
Diff
9
New Mexico
215.08
131.33
83.75
10
Syracuse
203.83
121.5
82.33
13
Notre Dame
323.5
245.38
78.12
28
Auburn
219.77
165.42
54.35
3
UCF
210.31
116.25
94.06
7
Hawaii
337
251.29
85.71
24
Wyoming
173.23
117.67
55.56
26
Michigan
198.33
143.17
55.16
59
Pittsburgh
211.31
203.38
7.93
36
California
222.69
189.77
32.92
11
Tennessee
226.31
145.83
80.48
96
Kentucky
140.31
171.85
-31.54
60
Air Force
88.38
82.15
6.23
21
Stanford
209.38
152.17
57.21
58
SMU
282
272.92
9.08
118
Ball St.
134.42
258
-123.58
115
Kansas St
169.42
269.58
-100.16
104
Missouri
285.46
330.36
-44.9
120
New Mexico St
87.77
301.33
-213.56
119
Rice
195.33
327.23
-131.9

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 6 of the top 13 most improved teams and 10 of my top 15 teams finished #28 or better! 14 of my 15 teams (93.3%) saw their pass offense ypg improve and on avg my top 15 improved their pass offense by 50 ypg in 09!

My bottom 5 results were even more accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in pass offense ypg saw their ppg decrease at least 44.9 ypg in 09 and all 5 of the teams finished 104th or worse! 4 of my projected preseason teams finished in the bottom 6 and on average the 5 teams had a pass offense decrease of 122.82 ypg in 09!

Heading into the season I thought New Mexico would have the most improved pass offense as they were switching to a no-huddle, high tempo, wide open spread offense under new HC Locksley. Despite the 1-11 overall record, the Lobos passing game was a bright spot avg 215.1 ypg in 09 a 83.75 ypg increase!

When my magazine was published in May I had Syracuse as the #2 most improved pass offense and that was before they acquired Duke transfer Greg Paulus in the summer. The Orange would go on to avg 203.8 ypg a 83.75 ypg improvement despite losing WR Williams mid year.

In my bottom 5 all of the teams were either losing a veteran QB or going thru a coaching change. Just like I predicted all of the teams saw their pass offense ypg drop in '09 and with the exception of Missouri who still finished with a 44.9 ypg decrease, my bottom teams all had their pass offense ypg drop at least 100 ypg in 09!

Overall 19 of the 20 teams (95%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ypg or lower ypg just as I projected!

Here is a complete list of all 120 teams and how they fared from 2008 to 2009. The teams highlighted in yellow were the teams I had projected in my top 15 and the teams highlighted in green are those I projected to be in the bottom 5.

Most Improved Pass Offense 2009

Rank
Team
09 Pass Off YPG
08 Pass Off YPG
Diff
1
Duke
305
197.67
107.33
2
Idaho
286.69
187.75
98.94
3
UCF
210.31
116.25
94.06
4
Toledo
278.5
187.83
90.67
5
Bowling Green
316.15
225.75
90.4
6
Troy
336.54
246.62
89.92
7
Hawaii
337
251.29
85.71
8
Wake Forest
271.58
186.92
84.66
9
New Mexico
215.08
131.33
83.75
10
Syracuse
203.83
121.5
82.33
11
Tennessee
226.31
145.83
80.48
12
Florida St
271.85
192.77
79.08
13
Notre Dame
323.5
245.38
78.12
14
Connecticut
216.54
139.69
76.85
15
Washington
236.5
163.83
72.67
16
Northwestern
286.54
216.69
69.85
17
North Carolina St
272.92
206
66.92
18
Indiana
247.92
181.25
66.67
19
Miami FL
261.92
196.77
65.15
20
Baylor
242.33
180.67
61.66
21
Stanford
209.38
152.17
57.21
22
Michigan St
269.38
213.31
56.07
23
Cincinnati
308.77
253
55.77
24
Wyoming
173.23
117.67
55.56
25
Miami OH
273.42
217.92
55.5
26
Michigan
198.33
143.17
55.16
27
Virginia Tech
183.92
129.07
54.85
28
Auburn
219.77
165.42
54.35
29
Utah St.
246.75
196.5
50.25
30
Kent St.
213.08
169.67
43.41
31
West Virginia
191.08
150.46
40.62
32
Iowa
222.08
181.69
40.39
33
Louisiana
224.83
185.5
39.33
34
Arkansas
295.54
259.58
35.96
35
Marshall
206.38
172.67
33.71
36
California
222.69
189.77
32.92
37
Colorado
226.42
194
32.42
38
Houston
433.71
401.62
32.09
39
Louisiana Tech
188.08
156
32.08
40
Washington St
177.92
146
31.92
41
Texas A&M
281.62
252.42
29.2
42
Georgia Tech
126.71
99.23
27.48
43
Army
71.75
46.25
25.5
44
Wisconsin
213.08
188.08
25
45
Florida Atlantic
279.67
254.77
24.9
46
San Diego St
263.58
239.25
24.33
47
ULM
208.42
184.58
23.84
48
Vanderbilt
146.33
122.62
23.71
49
Ohio St.
173.62
150.23
23.39
50
UCLA
222.77
200.5
22.27
51
Florida
236.07
213.93
22.14
52
Oregon St
270.77
249
21.77
53
Alabama
187.93
171.14
16.79
54
TCU
217.15
201.08
16.07
55
Navy
75.57
60.92
14.65
56
San Jose St
207.33
196.17
11.16
57
Boston College
187
176.5
10.5
58
SMU
282
272.92
9.08
59
Pittsburgh
211.31
203.38
7.93
60
Air Force
88.38
82.15
6.23
61
Western Ky
147.92
142.17
5.75
62
Purdue
255.25
249.58
5.67
63
Kansas
310.33
305.62
4.71
64
Buffalo
241.92
237.57
4.35
65
Maryland
210.67
206.69
3.98
66
South Carolina
226.15
222.46
3.69
67
East Carolina
217.36
214
3.36
68
UNLV
224.42
223.33
1.09
69
UAB
196
197.25
-1.25
70
FIU
216.67
218.25
-1.58
71
Arkansas St
193.58
195.5
-1.92
72
Mississippi
218.77
221.15
-2.38
73
Louisville
208.92
212.17
-3.25
74
Fresno St
201.62
204.92
-3.3
75
Arizona St
215.17
220.33
-5.16
76
Penn St
237.15
243.08
-5.93
77
Middle Tenn
235.69
241.67
-5.98
78
Southern Miss
235
241.08
-6.08
79
UTEP
277.58
284.17
-6.59
80
Memphis
214.83
222.38
-7.55
81
Minnesota
207
219.08
-12.08
82
North Texas
223.42
235.67
-12.25
83
Northern Ill
150
163.85
-13.85
84
Tulane
207.17
221.25
-14.08
85
Utah
229.23
244.46
-15.23
86
Arizona
225.15
244
-18.85
87
Western Mich.
275.5
294.69
-19.19
88
LSU
181.77
201.31
-19.54
89
North Carolina
174.92
198.77
-23.85
90
Boise St.
264.14
288.54
-24.4
91
Oregon
180.31
204.77
-24.46
92
Clemson
192
217.85
-25.85
93
Texas Tech
386.77
413.15
-26.38
94
BYU
281.46
310.38
-28.92
95
Mississippi St
144.33
174.33
-30
96
Kentucky
140.31
171.85
-31.54
97
Virginia
170.5
203.17
-32.67
98
Central Michigan
255.5
289.77
-34.27
99
Texas
273.64
308.31
-34.67
100
Ohio
198.14
232.92
-34.78
101
USC
222.31
259.85
-37.54
102
Colorado St
206.92
248.23
-41.31
103
Tulsa
259.33
301.86
-42.53
104
Missouri
285.46
330.36
-44.9
105
South Florida
194.69
239.62
-44.93
106
Akron
182.5
231.5
-49
107
Temple
146.46
202.92
-56.46
108
Oklahoma
289.23
349.36
-60.13
109
Oklahoma St
179.46
242.23
-62.77
110
Iowa St
184.69
248.42
-63.73
111
Nevada
160.69
230.77
-70.08
112
Illinois
193.08
269.33
-76.25
113
Georgia
201.15
277.69
-76.54
114
Rutgers
191.92
270.38
-78.46
115
Kansas St
169.42
269.58
-100.16
116
Nebraska
175.71
281
-105.29
117
Eastern Michigan
152.08
269.33
-117.25
118
Ball St.
134.42
258
-123.58
119
Rice
195.33
327.23
-131.9
120
New Mexico St
87.77
301.33
-213.56