Daily Blog • February 26, 2010

In my 2009 College Preview Magazine on pgs 324 and 327 I included my computer's projected stats in 2009 for all 120 FBS teams. There were several different categories including rush offense/defense, pass offense/defense, offensive pts and defensive pts.

On the right hand side of the page I listed the teams that my computer projected to be most improved in '09 compared to '08 season in 6 different categories. I had them ranked in order from Most Improved all the way down to the Least Improved and included the top 15 in each category along with the bottom 5.

In today's blog I have included my projections of the teams I thought would be most improved in rush defense heading into the 2009 season and how they finished in the final NCAA rankings.

In the coming days I will feature a different category in each blog and I think you will be impressed with the results of the accuracy of my projections.

Most Improved Rush Defense 2009

Pre-Season Projection
Final Rankings
Rank
Team
1
San Diego St
2
Kansas St
3
Washington
4
UNLV
5
Oklahoma
6
Florida
7
ULM
8
Rutgers
9
Marshall
10
Louisiana
11
Oklahoma St
12
BYU
13
North Texas
14
Arkansas
15
Fresno St
116
Louisiana Tech
117
Hawaii
118
Bowling Green
119
Maryland
120
WKU
Rank
Team
09 Rush Def YPG
08 Rush Def YPG
Diff
5
San Diego St.
165.5
247.5
-82
1
Kansas St.
105.42
217.67
-112.25
3
Washington
148.83
240.58
-91.75
76
UNLV
220.58
213.08
7.5
26
Oklahoma
92.92
116.21
-23.29
54
Florida
99.79
105.43
-5.64
2
ULM
110.08
212.67
-102.59
17
Rutgers
103.23
135.62
-32.39
20
Marshall
134.85
164.42
-29.57
18
Louisiana
181.92
213.25
-31.33
13
Oklahoma St.
95.77
137.85
-42.08
19
BYU
110.15
140.31
-30.16
44
North Texas
195.58
207.08
-11.5
29
Arkansas
152.69
170.75
-18.06
72
Fresno St.
214.08
210
4.08
114
Louisiana Tech
162.83
103.85
58.98
115
Hawaii
201.85
142.07
59.78
94
Bowling Green
194.23
162.58
31.65
73
Maryland
150.83
146.69
4.14
119
Western Ky.
244.83
162.42
82.41

As you can see my projections were pretty close. I nailed 4 of the top 5 most improved teams and 11 of my top 15 teams finished #29 or better! 13 of my 15 teams (86.7%) saw their rush defense ypg decrease and on avg my top 15 improved by 40 ypg in '09!

My bottom 5 results were just as accurate. All 5 of my projected bottom teams in rush defense saw their ypg increase in '09 and all 5 of the teams finished 73rd or worse! 3 of my projected preseason teams finished in the bottom 7 and on average the 5 teams had a rush defense increase of 47.4 ypg in '09!

Going into the season I thought San Diego St would have the most improved rush defense thanks to an amazing hire in Rocky Long as their DC. Long knew the MWC inside and out and produced top notch D's every year as the Lobos HC. In 2009 under the tutelage of Long, the Aztecs saw their rush defense decrease by 82 ypg which was good enough for #5 in the country.

Kansas St had 8 starters back on defense and welcomed back Bill Snyder who accomplished the greatest rebuilding job in college football history in his 1st stint in Manhattan. I thought the Wildcats would be the 2nd most improved team in rush defense and the Wildcats didn't disapoint allowing 112.3 ypg less in '09 which ranked #1.

In 2009 new Washington HC Steve Sarkisian was surprisingly able to hire Nick Holt as the DC. Holt was the HC at Idaho from 2004-'05 and left to return to USC as the DC the last two years. In the magazine I predicted that the Huskies were arguably the Most Improved Team in the country but their tough schedule would probably prevent them from going to a bowl. One of the areas I thought the Huskies would be most improved in was rush defense where I had them ranked #3 and that projection turned out to be dead on as Washington finished #3 with a 91.8 ypg improvement in 09.

Western Kentucky returned only 4 starters on defense and I thought the 2009 season would be a true transition year into the SBC for the Hilltoppers as they finished 0-12. Coming into the season I thought WKU would have the least improved rush defense and unfortunately for them my projection was very close as they finished #119 allowing 82.4 ypg more in '09.

Overall 18 of the 20 teams (90%) that were featured in my magazine finished with either a higher ypg or lower ypg just as I projected!

Here is a complete list of all 120 teams and how they fared from 2008 to 2009. The teams highlighted in yellow were the teams I had projected in my top 15 and the teams highlighted in green are those I projected to be in the bottom 5.

Most Improved Rush Defense 2009

Rank
Team
09 Rush Def YPG
08 Rush Def YPG
Diff
1
Kansas St
105.42
217.67
-112.25
2
ULM
110.08
212.67
-102.59
3
Washington
148.83
240.58
-91.75
4
Syracuse
101.83
189.42
-87.59
5
San Diego St
165.5
247.5
-82
6
SMU
166.69
225.58
-58.89
7
Temple
107.62
166.33
-58.71
8
Idaho
155.15
209.58
-54.43
9
Texas A&M
171.62
219.25
-47.63
10
Wisconsin
88.23
133.31
-45.08
11
North Carolina
95.62
139.38
-43.76
12
UCF
82.77
126.08
-43.31
13
Oklahoma St
95.77
137.85
-42.08
14
Kent St
137.08
178.67
-41.59
15
Buffalo
131.75
173
-41.25
16
Colorado St
152.08
190.08
-38
17
Rutgers
103.23
135.62
-32.39
18
Louisiana
181.92
213.25
-31.33
19
BYU
110.15
140.31
-30.16
20
Marshall
134.85
164.42
-29.57
21
Miami, FL
122.31
151.85
-29.54
22
Michigan St
113.23
142.46
-29.23
23
UCLA
142.77
169.75
-26.98
24
UAB
143.67
167
-23.33
25
Nebraska
93.14
116.46
-23.32
26
Oklahoma
92.92
116.21
-23.29
27
Miami, OH
186.92
208.33
-21.41
28
Ohio St
90.77
110.23
-19.46
29
Arkansas
152.69
170.75
-18.06
30
Arizona St
108.58
126.5
-17.92
31
Pittsburgh
106.31
124.15
-17.84
32
Oregon St
114.38
131.23
-16.85
33
Middle Tenn
136.77
153.5
-16.73
34
East Carolina
120.29
135.79
-15.5
35
Akron
171.92
187.17
-15.25
36
Stanford
137.92
152.92
-15
37
Central Michigan
122.86
136.54
-13.68
38
Texas Tech
126.77
140.38
-13.61
39
Tulane
204.83
218.42
-13.59
40
Navy
122.14
134.85
-12.71
41
Northern Illinois
124.77
137.38
-12.61
42
Indiana
159.08
171.67
-12.59
43
Toledo
166
178.33
-12.33
44
North Texas
195.58
207.08
-11.5
45
Washington St
236.42
247.62
-11.2
46
Texas
72.36
83.54
-11.18
47
Ball St
152.33
163
-10.67
48
Arizona
120.46
131.08
-10.62
49
Iowa St
165.69
176.17
-10.48
50
California
112
122.23
-10.23
51
Southern Miss
130.85
139.77
-8.92
52
Air Force
134
141.54
-7.54
53
Missouri
118.62
124.86
-6.24
54
Florida
99.79
105.43
-5.64
55
Colorado
161.17
166.25
-5.08
56
West Virginia
126.69
131.62
-4.93
57
Mississippi St
146
150.92
-4.92
58
Ohio
153.71
157.58
-3.87
59
Penn St
89.85
93.23
-3.38
60
Arkansas St
122
125.17
-3.17
61
North Carolina St
139.08
142.23
-3.15
62
Troy
137.77
139.69
-1.92
63
Purdue
173.42
174.83
-1.41
64
New Mexico St
220.69
220.17
0.52
65
Duke
152.83
151.5
1.33
66
UTEP
200.83
199.5
1.33
67
Illinois
154.42
152.92
1.5
68
Northwestern
128.62
126.38
2.24
69
Boise St
120.36
118
2.36
70
Georgia
126.15
122.31
3.84
71
Alabama
78.14
74.14
4
72
Fresno St
214.08
210
4.08
73
Maryland
150.83
146.69
4.14
74
South Carolina
137.69
132.69
5
75
Army
151.83
145.08
6.75
76
UNLV
220.58
213.08
7.5
77
Rice
190.58
182.77
7.81
78
Minnesota
151.69
143.31
8.38
79
Oregon
128.69
119.38
9.31
80
Boston College
103.15
91.21
11.94
81
Kansas
138.25
123.08
15.17
82
Auburn
156.08
138.92
17.16
83
Tulsa
147
129.5
17.5
84
Memphis
174.08
152.85
21.23
85
Nevada
111.54
88.62
22.92
86
Connecticut
132.85
109.77
23.08
87
LSU
133.38
110.15
23.23
88
Virginia Tech
128.38
104.43
23.95
89
Clemson
151.5
127.38
24.12
90
Virginia
173.83
149.58
24.25
91
Cincinnati
143.77
115
28.77
92
Iowa
123.62
94
29.62
93
Georgia Tech
151.64
120.31
31.33
94
Bowling Green
194.23
162.58
31.65
95
Wyoming
172.54
140.17
32.37
96
TCU
80.23
47.08
33.15
97
Michigan
171.92
136.92
35
98
Louisville
165.08
129.5
35.58
99
Notre Dame
170.25
134.15
36.1
100
Western Michigan
178.33
140.46
37.87
101
Utah
137.85
99.15
38.7
102
Wake Forest
164.33
124.15
40.18
103
South Florida
135.46
95.23
40.23
104
USC
128.15
87.38
40.77
105
Baylor
178.75
137.92
40.83
106
Florida Atlantic
220.58
178.69
41.89
107
New Mexico
165
122.25
42.75
108
Kentucky
182.92
139.23
43.69
109
Utah St
205.5
161.58
43.92
110
Tennessee
149.54
103.08
46.46
111
Houston
226.57
175.15
51.42
112
Vanderbilt
197.83
144.69
53.14
113
Mississippi
140.31
85.54
54.77
114
Louisiana Tech
162.83
103.85
58.98
115
Hawaii
201.85
142.07
59.78
116
Florida St
204.62
132.54
72.08
117
FIU
232.83
156.17
76.66
118
Eastern Michigan
276.75
196.33
80.42
119
WKU
244.83
162.42
82.41
120
San Jose St
259.17
141.42
117.75