Daily Blog • January 1st, 2010

First I want to wish everyone a Happy and Safe New Year! I also would like to thank everyone who has been using and reading PhilSteele.com this year. Your support and comments have helped us improve the site tenfold the past couple of years and with your help we will make PhilSteele.com even better in the upcoming year!

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

OUTBACK BOWL
NORTHWESTERN VS AUBURN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NORTHWESTERN 102
240
20
1.6
–
AUBURN
218
235
36
2.8
–

Gametime Projected Weather: 63° Light Rain Wind: WNW 20 mph

It will be rainy and Auburn does have some depth problems on defense. Northwestern is a constant overachiever under Fitzgerald as the Wildcats have 8 upsets in 13 roles as an underdog. Northwestern QB Mike Kafka is underrated at QB and the Wildcats will take it down to the final gun.
PHIL’S FORECAST: AUBURN 28 NORTHWESTERN 25

 

GATOR BOWL
FLORIDA ST VS WEST VIRGINIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA ST 137
305
29
3.1
•
WEST VIRGINIA
223
185
27
2.3
–
Gametime Projected Weather: 50° Few Showers early then Partly Cloudy Wind: NNW 15 mph
On paper West Virginia should win by 14 as they have the much better defense (#26-79). However Florida St QB EJ Manuel is healthier and expect the Seminoles to be motivated to send out coach Bobby Bowden on a winning note like Wisconsin did for Barry Alavarez and Alabama for Bear Bryant. I'll call for the Seminoles to play their best game of the year and rise up and knock off the Moutaineers.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 35 WEST VIRGINIA 28

 

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
LSU VS PENN ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LSU 82
170
15
1.6
•••••
PENN ST
143
215
18
1.4
–
Gametime Projected Weather: 64° Thunderstorms early then Cloudy Wind: WNW 9 mph

LSU has actually been outgained by 17 ypg this season and the Tigers are in the bottom of the NCAA in total offense despite their 9-3 record. The Tigers do have a big special teams edge but Penn St has the edges where it counts on offense (#26-57) and defense (#8-12). Nittany Lion LBs Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee are both healthy which hasnt been the case for most of the season. Paterno knows a thing or two on how win bowl games with a 23-11-1 record as I'll call for the Nittany Lions to win by 10.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 24 LSU 14

 

ROSE BOWL
OREGON VS OHIO ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON 157
170
26
2.8
•
OHIO ST
178
150
25
1.7
–
Gametime Projected Weather: 70° Mostly Cloudy Wind: NW 4 mph

Ohio St has an excellent athletic defense and they did have time to prepare for Oregon's spread offense. The Ducks have not been great away from Autzen this season and have actually been outgained 382-380 on average. Ohio St is thrilled to be playing in the Rose Bowl and are motivated to end their 3 game bowl losing streak. The Buckeyes will embrace the underdog role and pull the upset here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 31 OREGON 24

 

SUGAR BOWL
CINCINNATI VS FLORIDA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CINCINNATI 79
240
23
2.0
–
FLORIDA
221
235
33
1.3
–
Gametime Projected Weather: Played in the Super Dome.

First Brian Kelly left and then interim coach Jeff Quinn took the head job at Buffalo but the Cincinnati players are well motivated to have a good showing here. Florida is clearly the more talented team and will give an all out effort similar to the Florida St game which was Tebow's final home game. Urban Meyer's situation made this game a little tougher to look at with him first resigning then deciding to take just a leave of absence after the bowl. Bottom line is both teams are motivated but expect the Gators to come out with a win in Tebow's final game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 40 CINCINNATI 20

 

Conference Bowl Standings

Bowl Conference VS ConFerence Records
OVERALL
vs BCS CONF
W
L
%
W
L
%
MWC
4
0
100%
2
0
100%
BIG EAST
2
0
100%
1
0
100%
INDEP
1
0
100%
1
0
100%
SUN BELT
1
0
100%
0
0
0
BIG 12
3
2
60%
3
1
75%
BIG 10
1
1
50%
1
1
50%
WAC
1
1
50%
0
0
0
ACC
2
3
40%
2
3
40%
C USA
2
3
40%
0
1
0%
SEC
1
2
33%
1
2
33%
PAC 10
2
4
33%
1
2
33%
MAC
0
3
0%
0
1
0%

The MWC picked up another win yesterday with Air Force beating Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl. TCU is the only MWC team yet to play and if they can beat Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl the conference will finish the postseason a perfect 5-0! The Big East is 2-0 so far but that record will be tested today as Cincinnati plays heavily favored Florida in the Sugar Bowl and West Virginia plays Florida St in the Gator Bowl in Bobby Bowden's last game as coach. Missouri was disappointing in the loss to Navy yesterday but the Big 12 won their other two bowl games with Oklahoma beating Stanford and Iowa St upsetting Minnesota.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

After 20 bowl games William Meleski continues to lead the contest for the ninth day in a row with 315 points won and a 69% win %. Ben Brin had a great day yesterday and moved up to 2nd with 283 points while Michael Mancini is in 3rd with 281 points. Don Seebold is 1st in win % with 79%.

I now have 179 points and there are still 14 bowl games left including 10 in the next two days! Remember 1st place wins $250, 2nd place gets $100 and a set of regionals and 3rd gets $50 and a set of regionals.

Thanks again to the near 1200 people that have entered. If you have any questions concerning your points or do not see your name in the Top 50 and think it should be please email Brandon@philsteele.com.

Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

Rank
 Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
1
 William Meleski
315
139
69%
23
2
 Ben Brin
283
124
70%
21
3
 Michael Mancini
281
175
62%
85
4
 Gary Cotton
278
121
70%
19
5
 Richie Thomas
275
126
69%
25
6
 Lyell Marks
272
218
56%
236
7
 Patrick Hilt
270
91
75%
4
8
 Jason Bellinger
267
106
72%
11
8
 Pete Mackin
267
157
63%
66
10
 Don Seebold
266
70
79%
1
10
 Mitchell Sanpei
266
150
64%
57
12
 Jerry applegate
256
108
70%
15
13
 John Roberts
255
108
70%
16
14
 Marc Ostrom
251
101
71%
12
14
 Sherry Shoup
251
233
52%
407
14
 Bruce Drennan
251
239
51%
451
17
 Gary Grodin
250
140
64%
54
18
 Bobby Welles
247
84
75%
5
18
 Tony Orioli
247
148
63%
71
18
 Goran Mili
247
173
59%
141
21
 Marsha Realgood
246
114
68%
26
22
 Jeff Hamilton
245
68
78%
2
22
 Rusty Moreno
245
118
67%
34
22
 Dick Rosser
245
145
63%
68
25
 Jeremy Zinn
244
136
64%
52
26
 Adam Muscat
243
125
66%
43
26
 David Fingado
243
150
62%
82
28
 Steve MacDonald
242
81
75%
3
28
 Gene Winters
242
214
53%
344
30
 Dave Klaehn
241
196
55%
252
31
 Chuck Kreiner
240
134
64%
53
32
 Frances Ward
239
114
68%
31
32
 Craig Zeroski
239
141
63%
67
34
 Jerry Chieffalo
236
121
66%
42
35
 Gary McQuain
235
85
73%
8
35
 Nick McKloskey
235
152
61%
103
37
 Matt Schupp
234
103
69%
22
37
 Bob Siciliano
234
126
65%
48
39
 Dan Maurer
233
83
74%
7
39
 Rick Perk
233
112
68%
33
39
 Scott Boyce
233
139
63%
70
39
 Lance Ivy
233
190
55%
255
39
 Carroll Bragg
233
240
49%
536
44
 Jeremy Ackerman
232
115
67%
37
44
 Joe Smatana
232
134
63%
60
44
 Michael Ward
232
148
61%
96
44
 James Bigley
232
175
57%
185
48
 Mike Guzzo
229
100
70%
20
48
 Carl Ciaramitaro
229
175
57%
195
50
 Brian Dereng
228
147
61%
101
50
 Andy  Mickley
228
180
56%
220
50
 Larry Goodwin
228
186
55%
256

The Top 50 in Win %

Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Don Seebold
266
70
79%
1
Jeff Hamilton
245
68
78%
2
Steve MacDonald
242
81
75%
3
Patrick Hilt
270
91
75%
4
Bobby Welles
247
84
75%
5
Jim Martindale
185
64
74%
6
Dan Maurer
233
83
74%
7
Gary McQuain
235
85
73%
8
Donnie Holmann
213
79
73%
9
Anthony Marcello
204
79
72%
10
Jason Bellinger
267
106
72%
11
Marc Ostrom
251
101
71%
12
Gary Osborne
210
86
71%
13
Austin Huggins
205
84
71%
14
Jerry Applegate
256
108
70%
15
John Roberts
255
108
70%
16
Jeffrey Gans
179
77
70%
17
Jonathan Willard
151
65
70%
18
Gary Cotton
278
121
70%
19
Mike Guzzo
229
100
70%
20
Ben Brin
283
124
70%
21
Matt Schupp
234
103
69%
22
William Meleski
315
139
69%
23
Mike Magee
214
98
69%
24
Richie Thomas
275
126
69%
25
Marsha Realgood
246
114
68%
26
Gregory Ewers
143
67
68%
27
Jason Fry
177
83
68%
28
Bernie Lin
226
107
68%
29
Richard Bidnick
223
106
68%
30
Frances Ward
239
114
68%
31
Bob Knight
215
103
68%
32
Rick Perk
233
112
68%
33
Rusty Moreno
245
118
67%
34
Rob Vanier
183
89
67%
35
Timothy Zelek
184
91
67%
36
Jeremy Ackerman
232
115
67%
37
Ray Wenrich
160
80
67%
38
Matthew Anderson
223
112
67%
39
Don Armstrong
222
113
66%
40
Mike Connors
227
116
66%
41
Jerry Chieffalo
236
121
66%
42
Adam Muscat
243
125
66%
43
Tom Guertin
139
72
66%
44
Jerry Holcombe
198
103
66%
45
Blake Ali
220
115
66%
46
Donald Huggins
181
97
65%
47
Bob Siciliano
234
126
65%
48
K. McAbier
205
111
65%
49
Jim Merriman
217
120
64%
50

Radio Contest Leaderboards

WKNR Cleveland, OH with Michael Reghi
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Dave Klaehn
241
196
55%
15
Jason Dubeans
225
149
60%
5
Mike Hay
212
146
59%
10
Brad Morgan
211
180
54%
19
Gary Osborne
210
86
71%
2
Paul Becker
208
186
53%
24
Nathan Whitaker
206
140
60%
9
Kurt Latarski
206
178
54%
22
K. McAbier
205
111
65%
3
Anthony Marcello
204
79
72%
1
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Anthony Marcello
204
79
72%
1
Gary Osborne
210
86
71%
2
K. McAbier
205
111
65%
3
Ernie Sabo
199
126
61%
4
Jason Dubeans
225
149
60%
5
David D'Amore
177
118
60%
6
Frank Elia
177
119
60%
7
Chris Haynes
182
123
60%
8
Nathan Whitaker
206
140
60%
9
Mike Hay
212
146
59%
10

Not much changed in the KNR group yesterday as Dave Klaehn still leads with 241 points. Jason Dubeans is 2nd and Mike Hay is 3rd. Anthony Marcello is 1st in win % again with 72%.

"All Bets Are Off" Sports Time Ohio Cleveland, OH
with Bruce Drennan
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Bruce Drennan
251
239
51%
10
Gene Winters
242
214
53%
8
Matthew Goodman
205
161
56%
6
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
202
147
58%
4
Tim Johnston
201
113
64%
1
Scott (wox11)
193
122
61%
2
Frank Cellura
189
141
57%
5
Jim Nalle
185
148
56%
7
TODD RUMMINS
185
192
49%
12
John McFarlane
178
190
48%
15
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Tim Johnston
201
113
64%
1
Scott (wox11)
193
122
61%
2
Frank Elia
174
116
60%
3
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
202
147
58%
4
Frank Cellura
189
141
57%
5
Matthew Goodman
205
161
56%
6
Jim Nalle
185
148
56%
7
Gene Winters
242
214
53%
8
Karl Burtnett
165
152
52%
9
Bruce Drennan
251
239
51%
10

Bruce Drennan has taken the lead in the Sports Time Ohio group from Gene Winters who had led since day 1. Bruce has 251 points while Gene has 242. Tim Johnston is the leader in win % with 64%.

ESPN Radio 94.1 Virginia Beach, VA with Tony Mercurio
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Scott Boyce
233
139
63%
3
Richard Bidnick
223
106
68%
1
Don Lloyd
213
177
55%
8
Tony Mercurio
208
158
57%
7
David Crews
202
268
43%
17
Beau Boughamer
200
148
57%
6
Nick Mataragas
188
135
58%
4
Phillip Todd
188
179
51%
9
Rob Vanier
183
89
67%
2
Dan Wagoner
183
132
58%
5
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Richard Bidnick
223
106
68%
1
Rob Vanier
183
89
67%
2
Scott Boyce
233
139
63%
3
Nick Mataragas
188
135
58%
4
Dan Wagoner
183
132
58%
5
Beau Boughamer
200
148
57%
6
Tony Mercurio
208
158
57%
7
Don Lloyd
213
177
55%
8
Phillip Todd
188
179
51%
9
Willy Hrachovina
142
151
48%
10

Scott Boyce is #1 in the 94.1 group for the second day in a row with 233 points while Richard Bidnick is 2nd with 223 points and #1 in win % with 68%.

The Sports Animal 790 AM Houston, TX
with Charlie Pallilo

Adam Muscat conitnues to lead the 790 group with 243 points won and a 66% win %. Kevin Parham is in 2nd with 217 points.