Daily Blog • July 28, 2010

Today’s blog will continue with my series of analyzing the most/least improved units over the last 20 years. Each day this week I will have a new offensive or defensive statistical category to examine and today I will breakdown offensive ppg.

There are many factors that contribute to a significant change in offensive ppg. First, a team may see a significant improvement if they return a bunch of experienced starters from a team that was relatively inexperienced the year before. Naturally a team that loses a bunch of starters especially their quarterback from an experienced team will usually see a drop off in offensive ppg.

Another factor may be a coaching change. Usually a coach is more experienced at one side of the ball than the other (especially if they were just a coordinator in their previous job) and this could lead to a change in ppg. An “offensive” minded coach could come in and improve the offense by possibly instituting a more wide-open spread offense while a “defensive” minded coach may be more conservative on the offensive side of the ball and the ppg could suffer.

Whatever the case may be here are all the teams that improved by at least 14 ppg on offense compared to the priorseason. Quick note for many of the smaller schools in the WAC, MAC and Sun Belt: my data only goes back to 1995 for those teams so it would include the last 15 years instead of the last 20.

Most Improved Offensive PPG L/20 years

Rk
School
Year
PPG More
1
Northwestern
2000
24
2
BYU
2001
20.8
3
Oklahoma
1999
19.1
4
Kentucky
1997
19
5
Illinois
1999
18.8
6
Nebraska
1995
17.8
7
Kansas St
2002
17.3
7
California
2002
17.3
9
Fresno St
2004
17.2
10
Louisville
1998
17.1
11
Penn St
2005
16.7
12
Utah
2004
16.6
12
Utah St
2004
16.6
12
UCF
2007
16.6
15
Hawaii
2006
16.2
16
Florida ATL
2007
16.1
16
Hawaii
1999
16.1
18
Arkansas
1998
16
18
Auburn
2009
16
20
Hawaii
2001
15.8
21
S Carolina
2000
15.7
21
Iowa
2001
15.7
23
Florida
1993
15.6
24
Purdue
1997
15.4
25
Cincinnati
2007
15.2
25
Louisville
2004
15.2
27
Oklahoma St
2006
15
28
Texas
2005
14.9
29
Tulane
1997
14.7
29
Penn St
1994
14.7
31
Bowling Green   
2001
14.5
31
Air Force
1998
14.5
33
Arizona
1996
14.2
34
Arkansas
2009
14.1
35
Maryland
1992
14
35
UNLV
2000
14

A couple of quick notes first. In this most improved list on avg these teams returned more than 7 starters on offense and 79% of them returned their starting quarterback from the previous year. The #1 Most improved offensive ppg is the 2000 Northwestern Wildcats who went to a spread formation in head coach Randy Walker’s 2nd season. Led by QB Zak Kustok and RB Damien Anderson, the Wildcats avg an incredible 24 more ppg in 2000 and improved from 3-8 to 8-4 while sharing the Big 10 championship.

The #2 most improved offensive ppg is the 2001 BYU Cougars who in Gary Crowton’s first season as head coach avg 44.1 ppg (+20.8) which keyed their 12-0 start to the season before dropping their final two games.

The #3 most improved team is the 1999 Oklahoma Sooners who ironically brought in “defensive” minded coach Bob Stoops who installed a more wide-open shotgun offense led by OC Mike Leach and QB Josh Heupel. The transition from a run-oriented team was surprisingly easy for the Sooners as they avg 35.8 ppg which was 19.1 ppg more than the previous year.

Now here is a look at all of the teams who gave up at least 14 ppg more than the prior year. Keep in mind again that my data only goes back to 1995 for some of the smaller schools.

Least Improved Offensive PPG L/20 Years

Rk
School
Year
PPG Less
1
Rice
2009
-23
2
BYU
2002
-21.4
3
Washington St
1998
-20
3
Oklahoma
2009
-20
5
Tulane
1999
-19.6
6
UCF
2008
-19.3
7
Florida
2002
-19
8
Houston
1993
-18.9
9
UCLA
1999
-18.8
9
Hawaii
2008
-18.8
11
Iowa
1998
-18.7
12
USC
2006
-18.6
13
Tulsa
2009
-17.9
14
San  Diego St
1997
-17.5
15
Buffalo
1999
-17.2
16
Kent St
1998
-17.1
17
BYU
1997
-16.6
18
Louisville
1991
-16.5
19
UCLA
2006
-16.1
19
Toledo
1996
-16.1
21
Washington
2008
-15.9
22
Northwestern
2006
-15.8
23
Westen Kentucky
2008
-15.7
23
Nebraska
1998
-15.7
23
Ball St
2009
-15.7
26
Arkansas
2008
-15.4
27
Utah
2005
-15.3
27
Utah St
2005
-15.3
29
Miami (OH)
2006
-15.2
29
Tennessee
2008
-15.2
31
W Virginia
2008
-15.1
32
Penn St
2003
-14.9
33
Syracuse
1999
-14.8
33
Fresno St
2006
-14.8
35
Mississippi St
2001
-14.7
35
Stanford
2002
-14.7
37
Notre Dame
2007
-14.6
37
Rutgers
1996
-14.6
39
Mississippi
2004
-14.5
39
Iowa St
2003
-14.5
41
Houston
1991
-14.4
42
Bowling Green   
2006
-14.3
42
Texas
2006
-14.3
44
S Carolina
1996
-14.2
45
Kent St
2005
-14.1
45
South Florida
1999
-14.1

The #1 Least Improved offensive ppg team of the last 20 years happened last year with the Rice Owls. Rice returned just four starters from a unit that avg 41.3 ppg in 2008. The ‘08 team featured QB Chase Clement who had a 44-7 ratio but last year the Owls lost Clement as well as their top rushers and receivers and their ppg plummeted to just 18.3.

The #2 Least improved team is 2002 BYU Cougars who came down to earth after their record-breaking offensive ppg performance in 2001 which avg 44.1 ppg. In ’02 the Cougars lost their starting QB and returned just 3 starters and avg just 22.7 ppg.

Finally at #3 is the 1998 Washington St Cougars who like the top 2 teams lost most of their starters including a record-breaking QB in Ryan Leaf. The Cougars who avg 40.3 ppg in their Rose Bowl season in ’97 avg just 20.3 ppg the following year.

Make sure you visit the PhilSteele.com homepage and check out several of the new features added in the past week including Phil Steele Videos, Players Lost for the Season, Facebook Forecasts and a Week-by-Week Schedule complete with up-to-date TV times.

I will be back tomorrow with a look at the most/least improved defensive ppg of the last 20 years.

Only 36 Days Until the First College Football Game!!