Daily Blog • October 2, 2010

NFL Selections 22-18 (55%) So Far This Season

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 3RD
DENVER AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 77
230
16
2.3
#22
TENNESSEE 153
198
26
1.9
#18

RB Johnson got back in the groove with 125 yds (3.9) and the Titans got the win LW vs the Giants despite being outgained by 200 yds. The Broncos defense was disected by IND last week as DEN loss despite 476 yds passing by Orton. The Broncos made 5 trips into the Colts red zone but came away with just 6 pts. The key to beating TEN is to make QB Young beat you thru the air and the Broncos defense is not stout enough to control the run game as the Titans get the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 24 DENVER 16

CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CINCINNATI 125
213
18
1.8
#16
CLEVELAND 104
215
17
2.8
#24

Cleveland put up a valiant effort last week in the loss to the Ravens as RB Hillis 144 rush yds (6.5) became the first Cleveland RB to top 100 yds vs Baltimore. QB Wallace was effective despite playing without 5 starters but the Browns gave up a 2H lead again. While the Bengals got the win last week QB Palmer could have thrown 6 int’s and he is clearly not the elite QB he was 3 years ago. The Browns have been very close this year but have yet to play a complete game. They get it here vs a CIN that is not playing very sharp right now.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEVELAND 17 CINCINNATI 14

CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAROLINA 140
193
11
3.5
#7
NEW ORLEANS 155
265
35
1.3
#3

Last week the Saints were caught in a short week vs a division foe in Atlanta and missed a 29 yd FG in OT in the loss. The Saints brought in 46 year old K Carney to challenge Hartley this week but this game should not come down to a field goal as they take on an 0-3 Carolina team featuring a rookie QB who will be making his first career road start.  Last week Clausen only had 14 yds (20%) with an Int and a botched snap in the 1H before settling down. The Saints should get out to a quick start taking away the Carolina running threat as they “Brees” through this one.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 38 CAROLINA 7

SEATTLE AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEATTLE 115
213
20
2.6
#1
ST LOUIS 103
248
17
0.4
#20

Seattle continued to capitalize on their homefield edge and pulled in 2 long KR’s for TD’s to edge the Chargers last week. They did suffer another pair of injuries to CB Trufant and LB Curry LW. St Louis is off a big home win vs the Redskins and QB Bradford is showing positive returns very early. The Seahawks are a completely different team on the road and not in a good way and it would not surprise me to see the Rams get another home vs a beat up Seahawks team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ST LOUIS 20 SEATTLE 17

 

INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANAPOLIS 74
368
32

1.0
#29
JACKSONVILLE 117
203
9
2.4
#8

The Colts offense continues to improve as they have outgained foes by 108, 153, and 189 so far. Manning had 300 yds passing despite being without his #2 and #3 WR’s vs DEN LW and has a career 35-18 TD/Int ratio in 16 games vs JAX. On the other side is Jacksonville QB Garrard who is rapidly regressing with 139 ypg (53%) with a 1-5 ratio (8 sks) the last two weeks with Del Rio calling him “ineffective”. RB Jones is not 100% and look for the Colts to continue their solid play of the last two weeks.
PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 35 JACKSONVILLE 17

 

ARIZONA AT SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 91
165
16
3.1
#21
SAN DIEGO 102
358
35
2.3
#32

While Arizona got their 2nd win of the year LW, Anderson only hit for 122 yds (46%) with a 2-1 ratio. Now he has to go up against a San Diego team that dominated Seattle statistically last week but gave up 2 KR TD’s in the loss. The Chargers pass defense ranks #7 and has been pretty stout allowing Cassel to 68 yds, Garrard to 173 and Hasselbeck to 220 yds. QB Rivers torched Seattle for 455 yds and my computer calls for a 460-256 yd edge as San Diego rolls.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 42 ARIZONA 17
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALTIMORE 65
220
14
2.3
#28
PITTSBURGH 88
140
19
2.0
#6

The Steelers are a surprising 3-0 without QB Roethlisberger thanks to the best defense in football which is limiting opp’s to just 278 ypg and 2 TD’s. Baltimore has not been impressive this year on offense and after being held to 10 pts by the Jets and Bengals, their 24 pts last week vs the Browns was nothing to get excited about. The Steelers have a bye on deck and the natural reaction would be to exhale but with their division rival here,  the Steelers should play inspired.  With the momentum, homefield advantage along with the special teams and defensive edge, the Steelers move to a surprising 4-0.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 BALTIMORE 17

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 82
235
23
3.0
#10
GREEN BAY 109
308
35
1.8
#9

Green Bay is off the disappointing loss to the Bears where they had as many penalties (17) as they had points. QB Rodgers has shredded Detroit for 336 ypg (70%) with an 11-1 ratio in his four starts vs the Lions and this year DET continues to struggle in the secondary. On offense, Detroit QB Hill has been forced to air it out 88 times the last two weeks and RB Best is not 100%. The Packers beat a similarly talented Buffalo team earlier 34-10 and should have no problem here rebounding from the MNF loss.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GREEN BAY 35 DETROIT 10

SAN FRANCISCO AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN FRANCISCO 56
210
11
2.0
#26
ATLANTA 150
260
32
1.6
#23

The 49ers are off to a disappointing 0-3 start thanks to an inconsistent OL which hasn’t helped RB Gore 64 ypg (3.9) find his way. The OL pass protection issues are also forcing Smith to checkdown too much and not take advantage of Crabtree’s deep threat ability. Last week Atlanta snapped a 4 game losing streak in OT and beat the defending Super Bowl champs thanks to a missed 29 yd FG by the Saints. While the 49ers are dangerous here I’ll side with an Atlanta team that features QB Ryan who has only 1 int in 106 pass att’s this season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 24 SAN FRANCISCO 20

NY JETS AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 150
168
21
1.5
#2
BUFFALO 85
175
8
2.8
#19

The Bills played inspired football with QB Fitzpatrick (247 yds, 71%, 2-2) last week in the 38-30 loss to New England. The Jets meanwhile avenged LY’s 2 losses vs the Dolphins via the offense with a last second defensive hold. Sanchez has yet to throw an Int in 79 pass att’s. This is a definite flat spot for the Jets after 3 tough games already and they have Minnesota on deck for MNF. The Bills similar to last week keep it close against a division power but lose in the end.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 17 BUFFALO 14

HOUSTON AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 133
175
30
1.6
#13
OAKLAND 105
285
23
2.1
#15

Houston lost their big in-state rival game vs Dallas last week and may be a little flat here especially with WR Johnson (ankle) not being 100%. Oakland played inspired ball last week vs Arizona but still came up short. They did make the right decision in going to QB Gradkowski who threw for 255 yds (50%) with a 1-1 ratio. The Raiders are usually good for a surprise upset or two every year and this week get one of those against a Houston team still reeling from the disappointing loss last week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OAKLAND 16 HOUSTON 13

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WASHINGTON 70
223
21
1.7
#4
PHILADELPHIA 107
260
26
2.2
#12

Naturally the story here is the return of Donovan McNabb to Philadelphia where he played for 11 years. While McNabb is avg 278 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 Washington is off a very disappointing loss to St Louis last week as they were just 1 for 10 on 3rd downs while giving up 7 for 16. They also lost P Bidwell in the pregame warm-ups which hurt the field position battle. The media is giving Vick lots of press labeling him as an elite QB but keep in my mind in the last two games he has gone up against two very poor secondaries in Detroit and Jacksonville. The Skins were caught in a look ahead last week and I expect them and McNabb to play with a “chip” on their shoulders and get the upset road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WASHINGTON 28 PHILADELPHIA 24