Daily Blog • October 16th


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 17
SAN DIEGO AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 99
343
27
1.6
#32
ST LOUIS 104
143
17
2.9
#25

The Chargers continue to have the #1 offense and defense statistically in the NFL but very poor special teams play has cost them in 3 games. Also injuries at LB have pushed special teamers into the starting lineup further weakening those units. The Rams played well in their first four games but last week were blown out by the Lions and lost their best WR Clayton (patella) for the year. My computer calls for a 442-247 yd edge and the Chargers should roll here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 35 ST LOUIS 10

 

BALTIMORE AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALTIMORE 113
243
23
1.7
#26
NEW ENGLAND 106
255
30
1.0
#4

The Patriots are off a bye week and while the trade of WR Moss does lessen the deep threat for NE, they have been using a heavy amount of 2-TE sets and are emphasizing more route running. Baltimore had its first victory of the season last week by double digits as they have had a tough schedule to date with road games against the Jets, Steelers and Bengals and have to go on the road again here. NE has a huge ST's edge and more defensive speed than what took the field in LY's playoff loss to Baltimore. With the extra rest I'll call for the Pats to avenge LY's loss.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 20 BALTIMORE 10

 

ATLANTA AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 138
208
25
1.9
#14
PHILADELPHIA 93
233
17
2.1
#18

The Eagles escaped with a SNF win last week by turning 5 49ers TO's into 10 pts. QB Kolb played within the system as HC Reid called a very balanced game with 125 yds rushing (4.6). Atlanta has had this game circled as the Eagles beat them 34-7 last year and QB Vick scored 2 TD's to rub it in a little and ATL was playing without Ryan and Turner. The Falcons are coming off 3 straight tough wins and have showed a lot of resilency to date. I'll call for them to keep their impressive streak going as they get another road win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 23 PHILADELPHIA 13

 

SEATTLE AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEATTLE 69
134
11
3.0
#1
CHICAGO 109
253
23
2.5
#12

The Seahawks are just 1-8 on the road and several weeks ago I predicted that they would probably be a Jekyll and Hyde team when it comes to playing at home and on the road this season. This week they travel to Chicago and take on a Bears team that held the Panthers to just 147 yds as they forced 8 3 & out drives. While SEA picked up RB Lynch from the Bills last week to bolster their #29 run game, the Bears ran for 218 yds (5.2) last week. I think this is the best Bears defense since their Super Bowl team of 2006 and they move to 5-1.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 31 SEATTLE 17

 

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEVELAND 65
208
12
3.2
#19
PITTSBURGH 120
208
21
1.8
#9

The 3-1 Steelers with one of the best defenses in football (#5) return from the bye with their franchise QB Roethlisberger back from suspension. The Browns come in beat up at the QB pot as both Delhomme & Wallace have ankle sprains and rookie McCoy will get his first start here. Last week Browns RB Hillis was held to just 28 yds (2.8) and this is a mismatch here as the Steelers will want to atone for the embarassing loss to the Browns last year which pretty much ended their playoff hopes. The Steelers win comfortably.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 CLEVELAND 10

 

OAKLAND AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 97
198
20
1.8
#11
SAN FRANCISCO 133
255
25
2.2
#27

The Raiders ended a 13 game losing streak to the Chargers thanks to solid special teams play. QB Campbell was efficient off the bench (159 yds, 72%) with 1 TD and didn't make any mistakes to let the game slip away. Now they travel across the Bay to take on the best 0-5 team in the NFL. 5 TO's and 10 penalties did SF in LW with QB Smith being one of the biggest "hot & cold" QB's in the league. SF owner York put his confidence in the team saying they were going to win the division even after the loss. I'll call for the 49ers to play with a sense of urgency and get their first win of the season here over their cross-bay rivals.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 23 OAKLAND 17

 

 

 
KANSAS CITY AT HOUSTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 128
225
26
1.7
#2
HOUSTON 138
275
23
1.4
#20

Houston's #32 pass defense was shredded last week vs the Giants and the Texans have given up at least 360 yds and 24 ppg in each game this season. The Chiefs have given up just 360 yds once this year in the opener against San Diego as DC Crennel runs a very basic scheme that plays to the athleticism and speed of his defense. KC hung tough with IND last week before giving up a late drive that put the game out of reach. While the Chiefs are gaining confidence each week, they are not ready yet to go on the road and beat a solid AFC team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 30 KANSAS CITY 24

NEW ORLEANS AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 111
230
24
1.5
#7
TAMPA BAY 108
235
23
2.6
#19

The Saints are off two embarassing games where they struggled vs rookie QB's despite outgaining them by 132 and 179 yds respectively. Their lack of a run game (#31) allows defenses to play the deep routes to limit their down field vertical threat. The Saints are also not getting the lucky breaks that they had LY as the Cardinals had four fumbles but none were turned into takeaways. On the other hand the Bucs were gifted 3 int's LW vs Cincinnati (2 in the final 2:30) which they turned into 17 pts as they got the improbable win. While NO has disappointed and TB has surprised to date, I'll call for the Saints to finally get it going here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 23 TAMPA BAY 13

DETROIT AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 67
156
23
2.8
#3
NY GIANTS 126
298
27
2.4
#27

The Giants should have lots of confidence coming off 2 big wins with a dominating defensive performance vs the Bears two weeks ago and an explosive offensive performance last week vs Houston. The Lions are also off a big win as they ended their 10 game losing streak with a 44-6 win over St Louis which is their largest MOV since beating the expansion Jaguars in 1995. My computer calls for the Giants with a large 424-223 yd edge despite the close score projection. I'll lean with the yards projection as the Giants should roll in this one.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 41 DETROIT 13

MIAMI AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI 113
245
23
2.1
#30
GREEN BAY 124
258
30
1.8
#25

The Packers were already playing without 3 starters in the Washington game and had 5 more leave the game including QB Rodgers (concussion) and OLB Matthews (hamstring). The Dolphins are coming off a bye after their emabarassing home loss to NE on MNF which cost their ST's coach his job. The Dolphins should be very focused here and they do have the talent to make the AFC East race interesting. If not for all the injuries I would have sided with the home Packers but now I'll call for the Dolphins to win on the road.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 24 GREEN BAY 21

NY JETS AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 170
120
27
0.8
#3
DENVER 45
318
16
2.4
#20

Denver QB Orton has already passed for more than 1,600 yds and for the first time in NFL history 3 QB's have passed that mark in the first five games (P Manning & Rivers). While many consider the Jets to be the best team in the league at this point, the Broncos are catching them at a good time as they travel on a short week for the 3rd time in 4 weeks after 3 primetime games to open the season. The Jets also have a bye on deck & will be happy to just leave with a win. I'll call for the upset here as the Broncos take advantage of the altitude and the right arm of Orton.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 21 NY JETS 17

 

DALLAS AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DALLAS 63
278
12
2.1
#22
MINNESOTA 114
203
20
2.2
#23

A must-win for both teams here as they have gotten off to disappointing 1-3 starts. Last year the Vikings destroyed the Cowboys 34-3 in the divisional playoffs as they held them to just 5 FD and 103 yds in the 2H. QB Favre has still not gotten into rhythm and last week threw a "pick-six" that ended their comeback chances. Dallas dominated statisically LW with a 511-321 yd edge (13:28 TOP edge) but 3 TO's and 133 yds of penalties doomed them against the Titans. One of these teams playoff chances will take a serious blow with a loss. I'll go with the home team playing in front of rabid crowd who will be welcoming back WR Moss.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 34 DALLAS 24