Daily Blog • October 23rd

 


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS 8-4 Last Week!
PITTSBURGH VS MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PIT 80
185
23
1.4
#8
MIA 100
275
20
2.7
#31

Roethlisberger did well in his 2010 debut but the coaching staff kept it conservative with a 35 run/27 pass mix vs a tough but slow CLE defense.MIA was taken to OT vs a badly depleted GB squad & needed 3 40+ yd FG’s for the win. PIT’s defense is back to its bullying style while MIA is still trying to get LB’s Dansby/Crowder on the field for a full game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 24 MIAMI 13

 

JACKSONVILLE VS KANSAS CITY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JAX 138
180
18
1.8
#9
KC 173
240
29
1.4
#2

JAX is off a huge MNF game vs TEN they were hoping to use as a stepping stone for ticket sales but they were embarassed 30-3. KC is much improved thanks to the coaching staff who have greatly improved the OL play (1 sack every 34 att’s vs 12 allowed LY), cut down on penalties (23 - 2nd best) & streamlined the defense to play to the defenders speed & instincts. We aren’t sold on Cassel (1 250 yd passing game TY) yet but the Jaguars could be in trouble the rest of the season after the poor performance on Saturday.
PHIL’S FORECAST:  KANSAS CITY 28 JAX 13

 

WASHINGTON VS CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WAS 74
223
15
1.5
#4
CHI 120
208
19
2.4
#6

While WAS runs a bend but don’t break defense they are 14th in the red zone & ppg allowed. They allowed a surprising 170 yds (5.9) to the Colts LW & TE Cooley (concussion) may miss here. After finding a winning formula vs CAR with 218 yds (5.2), Martz regressed & exposed Cutler to another 6 sacks (1 every 6.1 att’s TY). The Redskins are primed for a letdown spot here after upsetting PHI, beating GB in OT and taking on the Colts on SNF and I'll call for the Bears by a FG.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CHICAGO 17 WASHINGTON 14

 

BUFFALO VS BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUF 90
118
9
2.1
#16
BALTIMORE 105
228
29
1.3
#25

The Ravens are off a tough loss to NE where they went 13 min into OT going 3 & out twice in the extra period. The Bills are making a serious case for the 1st pick in the 2011 Draft & have a real chance of going 0-16 TY. BUF has been outgained in all 5 games TY, are allowing 49% on 3rd Dns & are giving up an 11-1 TD/Int ratio. My computer calls for BAL to have a 333-208 yd edge & 20 pt win here and I agree as the Ravens roll.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 37 BUFFALO 13

 

ST LOUIS VS TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STL 141
170
14
1.3
#24
TB 111
218
17
1.6
#19

The Rams have equalled their win total from 2008 & 2009 with 3 home wins. Aside from WR the Rams have avoided the injury bug TY as 10 of 11 defenders have started all 6 games TY. TB showed its big defensive weakness LW as the Saints gashed them for 212 yds (6.6) targeting their young DT’s. With both teams clear surprises this year, I'll go with the home team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 21 ST LOUIS 18

 

NEW ENGLAND VS SAN DIEGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NE 104
218
34
1.5
#1
SD 84
353
27
2.2
#32

NE has to travel cross country after going an extra 13 min into OT vs the Ravens for the win. Belichick learned a lot from NE’s scrimmages with NO in the preseason. By trading away Moss he enabled Brady to spread the ball around with pass att’s to 8 different players LW. SD once again had a special teams blunder (blocked FG) wich cost them. TE Gates (ankle sprain) is banged up and NE is much healthier and has played a better quality of foes so far this season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 31 SAN DIEGO 27

 

 
CINCINNATI VS ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CIN 73
245
15
2.1
#25
ATL 117
248
25
1.7
#13

CIN’s lack of identity & inconsistent play by Palmer has been the big reason for CIN’s 2-3 start. The Bengals pass rush has struggled TY as well (1 every 29 vs 1 every 16 LY) & would be smart to trade for WAS DE/OLB Andre Carter. ATL was caught reading its own press clippings LW & were never in the PHI game. They gave up 3 TD plays of 30+ yds & the defense failed to take advantage of a beat up PHI OL without LT Peters.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ATLANTA 28 CINCINNATI 14

PHILADELPHIA VS TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHI 117
233
25
2.2
#20
TENNESSEE 145
205
26
2.1
#17

PHI rose up to the challenge LW vs ATL with Kolb being very aggressive in the passing game (79% 11.2 ypa). However they are likely to be without WR Jackson (81 rec 19.1 L21 gms) who is their best big play threat due to a serious concusion. TEN is off LW’s impressive MNF win over Jacksonville but has their own injury concerns and QB Young did not play yesterday and is ? for this one. while RB Johnson isn’t on a pace to hit 2000 yds again I think the Titans control the LOS on both sides and get the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENN 20 PHILADELPHIA 13

CLEVELAND VS NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLE 98
205
17
2.5
#12
NO 132
283
26
1.5
#10

On one hand McCoy handled himself fairly well vs PIT staring down PIT’s aggressive pass rush which looked to jump the snap count repeatedly & pushed the ball downfield. On the other hand a lot of good passing #’s come in losing efforts & he had 281 yds (70%) with a 1-2 ratio. NO flashed some 2009 form as the run game finally showed up (212 yds 6.6) which allowed Brees to push the ball downfield. CLE is a scrappy team but McCoy is travelling to the Superdome in his 2nd start with his WR's banged up from last week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NEW ORLEANS 31 CLEVELAND 6

SAN FRANCISCO VS CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SF 144
140
20
2.5
#23
CAR 127
173
13
2.8
#18

The good news is that SF got its 1st win of the year. The defense finally dominated a game (10 FD 179 yds for OAK) & Smith rebounded from a poor 1H. Now they travel to the EST where they are 2-23. CAR comes back off the bye & despite a woeful offense that has left the defense on the field way too long they have the #8 def the L4W. They should get Steve Smith (ankle) back here with SF travelling to London next week but the 49ers make it two in a row.
PHIL’S FORECAST: San francisco 20 carolina 14

ARIZONA VS SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARZ 68
195
17
2.3
#13
SEA 127
250
28
2.7
#5

SEA returns home with some momentum after upsetting the Bears on the road. The most impressive part about the Seahawks TY is that despite all the roster moves TY they are aren’t giving up sacks (8th) & are getting after the QB (5th). ARZ will start Max Hall in his 1st road start at Qwest Field which is accepted as the loudest venue in the NFL. The bye week will help ARZ’s OL & WR Fitzgerald heal up but its unknown if #2 WR Breaston will be available. ARZ will try to establish Wells/Hightower here but my computer calls for SEA to have a 327-263 yd edge at home & they get a key division win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: SEATTLE 27 ARIZONA 10

 

OAKLAND VS DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAK 122
168
17
1.7
#14
DEN 136
270
25
1.5
#22

Raiders QB Campbell was a disaster LW with 83 yds (38%) & 2 Int going 2 Qtrs without a completion at one point. 24% of their yards came on a WR end around play & the defense allowed SF to convert 5 of 9 3rd Dns in the 2H. DEN is off a tough loss vs the Jets which they were winning late in the 4Q. They gave up a 46 yd Def pass interference penalty on 4th & 6 which set up the Jets TD. DEN is very beat up right now defensively & 58 of their 145 rush yds were by non-RB’s LW. However, my computer calls for Denver to have a 406-290 yd edge and projects a 25-17 score and while I think it will be closer, the Broncos get the win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 24 oakland 21