Finally the College Football season starts tonight with 18 games on the schedule. Last year I started a weekly blog that included my surprise fantasy picks for each week of the college football season. Each week I picked the players that were flying under the radar and I am pleased that I finished the year at a very successful 83-29-7 (74%).

This year I will again be giving you the surprise fantasy picks each and every week in my Thursday daily blog and here are my picks for Week 1.

QUARTERBACKS:

My QB’s of the Week: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, Dayne Crist, Notre Dame and G.J. Kinne, Tulsa

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri-Gabbert is coming off a great year where he threw for 3,593 yds (58.9%, 24-9) and most of these yds came after he suffered an ankle injury in the 1Q of the Nebraska game. Prior to the injury Gabbert had thrown for 1,161 yds with an 11-0 ratio but after being less than 100%, he threw 7 int in the next 4 games. This year Gabbert is one of the best QB’s in the Big 12 and despite losing his top 2 WR’s from a year ago, he should continue to improve. Last year Gabbert threw for 319 yds and 3 TD in his first start as an inexperienced Missouri team thrashed the experienced Illini 37-9. This year my computer projects the Tigers to have 310 yards and recently Missouri suspended their leading rusher Derrick Washington so expect coach Pinkel to rely on his experienced QB more against an Illinois defense that gave up 249 ypg and were just #90 in my pass defense rankings.

Dayne Crist, Notre Dame-The talented Crist (PS#5) is making his first start but Kelly is a great QB developer and won the Big East title at Cincinnati playing 5 different QB’s in 2008. Crist will have my #7 set of WR’s to throw to including All-American candidate Floyd. He will be facing a Purdue secondary that is my biggest question mark on the squad and my computer projects 335 yards passing in his debut which would eclipse Quinn’s and Clausen’s debuts. Crist also played significantly in last year’s Purdue game as Clausen was struggling with his toe and led the Irish on a couple of scoring drives.

GJ Kinne, Tulsa-Kinne had a solid year last year throwing for 2,732 yds (60.9%, 22-10) and this year he is one of the top QB’s in CUSA and Tulsa is my #1 Most Improved Team in the country. Kinne will have my #19 set of WR’s to throw which includes one of the nation’s best in Damaris Johnson. Last year Kinne threw for 236 yds against East Carolina but this year he goes up against a Pirate defense that returns just 2 starters and will be changing to a different scheme. My computer projects 298 yds passing and Tulsa should get the win over the 2-time defending champs.

Top Honorable Mention:

Kirk Cousins, Michigan St-ast year Kirk Cousins was in a heated competition with Keith Nichol and the 2 alternated snaps early until Nichol injured his elbow in the Illinois game. Cousins took command and finished the season with 2,680 yds (60.4%, 19-9) which included a monster game vs Western Michigan where completed 88% of his passes for 353 yds and a 2-0 ratio as the Spartans had season highs in points, FD’s and yds. This year Cousins has taken most of the snaps through spring and fall as Nichol moved to WR and he has a talented set of WR’s to throw to in BJ Cunningham and Mark Dell. Western Michigan gave up 241 pass ypg a year ago and while the Broncos D is improved this year my computer is calling for the Spartans to have 288 pass yds and Cousins should have another big day.

Steven Ensminger, Louisiana Tech-Ensminger definitely fits into the surprise category as he beat out returning starter Ross Jenkins for the starting QB job. Ensminger had been the backup TE last year but has thrived in Sonny Dykes new spread offense in the spring and fall camp and my computer projects 333 yds passing for Ensminger in his first career start against a Grambling defense that lost its dominant pass rusher in All-American DE Christian Anthony.

Darron Thomas, Oregon-I expected Thomas to beat out Costa when the magazine was published in May and he did just that after being named the starter recently. Thomas has 4.5 speed and they will rely on his legs a little more in this game as RB James is suspended. Thomas also should have no problem through the air against a Lobo defense that gave up 254 pass ypg (62.9%) a year ago.

No Brainers:

Case Keenum, Houston-Keenum leads one of the most prolific passing attacks in the entire country against FCS Texas St. My computer projects 485 yds passing as Keenum should get his Heisman candidacy off to a great start.

Colin Kaepernick, Nevada-Kaepernick is one of the most dangerous players in the NCAA and he needs just 94 rush yds to become the 2^nd QB in WAC history to have 3,000 rush/3,000 pass yds in his career (Beau Morgan, AF ’94-’96). He has a great chance to do it this week against FCS Eastern Washington as my computer projects 327 yds rushing and 295 yds passing against an Eagle defense that gave up 429 ypg a year ago.

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas-QB Ryan Mallett returns for another year after throwing for 3,624 yds (55.8%, 30-7) and he has my #1 set of WR’s to throw to. My computer projects a 657-120 yd edge for the Razorbacks here as Mallett and Co put up huge numbers.

Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M-Johnson threw for 3,579 yds (59.6%, 30-8) a year ago and has plenty of weapons surrounding him including my #4 set of WRs and they will be going up against FCS Stephen F Austin.

Andrew Luck, Stanford-Luck according to many NFL scouts is one of top 2 QB’s for next year’s NFL draft and expect him to carve up a Sacramento St secondary that gave up 287 pass ypg and 66.9% a year ago.

Landry Jones, Oklahoma-The Sooners are my pick to win the national title and a lot of it has to do with Jones who gained valuable experience last year starting 10 games for the injured Bradford. Last year he led the NCAA frosh in pass yds and TD’s as he threw for 3,198 yds (58%) with a 26-14 ratio and this year he should be even better. This week he goes up against a Utah St defense that allowed 250 pass ypg last year and I expect him to get off to a great start here.

RUNNING BACKS:

My RB’s of the week are: John Clay, Wisconsin, Delone Carter, Syracuse and Daniel Thomas, Kansas St, Derrick Locke, Kentucky and DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma

John Clay, Wisconsin-Clay ran for 1,517 yds (5.7) a year ago and was the Big Ten OPOY. This year he will be going up against a UNLV D that allowed 5.7 rush ypc in 2009. Wisconsin has my #2 rated OL and my computer is predicting 305 yds rushing for the Badgers. I think Clay has a great shot at getting 150 yds + in this game.

Delone Carter, Syracuse-Carter ran for 1,021 yds (4.3) a year ago and had a great game against Akron with 170 yds (5.7) and 3 TD’s. This year expect the Orange to rely more on the running game with a new QB and Carter could have another big game against the Zips in the opener.

Daniel Thomas, Kansas St-Thomas ran for 1,265 yds (5.1) a year ago and the Wildcats return 8 of their top 10 offensive lineman. They will be going up against a Bruin DL that is far less experienced than last year and lost DT Price early to the NFL (#2DC TB). My computer predicts 232 yds rushing for the Wildcats and if they reach that number I have to believe Thomas will have big game.

Derrick Locke, Kentucky-Last year Locke ran for nearly 907 yds and added another 1,000 yds in receiving and KR. Against the Cardinals last year, Locke ran for 72 yds but had 191 yds in KR including a 100 yd TD that keyed the 31-27 win. Look for more of the same this year as my computer forecasts 194 yds rushing for the Wildcats.

DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma-Murray is one of the top RB’s in the country and this year the Sooners OL is in much better shape. I expect Murray to run for more than 1,000 yds this year like he did in 2008 and will get off to a great start here against an overmatched Utah St defense.

Top Honorable Mentions:

Kenjon Barner, Oregon-Barner will be starting in place of the suspended James but I do not expect to see much of a drop-off. Barner is a great KR who had 1,020 yds (24.9, 1 TD) a year ago and will use his speed to break off several big runs against an overmatched Lobo defense.

Trent Richardson, Alabama-With the injury to Ingram, Richardson will get his chance to prove why is quite possibly the best back-up RB in the country. Some people at Alabama even think that he is better than Ingram after rushing for 751 yds (5.2) a year ago. He will be going up against a San Jose St defense that allowed 259 ypg LY and will be learning new schemes in HC MacIntyre’s first year. Expect Richardson to have a great game and maybe a few extra carries to get him ready for the Penn St game next week.

Bernard Pierce, Temple-Pierce ran for 1,361 yds (5.8) as a true frosh and Temple welcomes back 4 starters on the MAC’s best OL that averages 317 lbs. Expect the Owls to come out fired up against a Villanova team that beat them a year ago and they will lean heavily on Pierce to get the win.

No Brainer:

Noel Devine, West Virginia-Devine turned down an early trip to the NFL, and will try to improve upon his 1,465 yds (6.1) from a year ago that he achieved despite having multiple injuries (ankle, hammy, hip). He should have a great game here against FCS Coastal Carolina as my computer projects 314 yds rushing for the Mountaineers.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

My WR’s of the week are: Damaris Johnson, Tulsa and Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

Damaris Johnson, Tulsa-Johnson led the nation in All-purpose yards a year ago as he topped 1,000 yds receiving and 1,000 yds on KR’s. This year Tulsa has one of the top offenses in the country and a big reason is Johnson. He will be matched up against a East Carolina defense that gave up 258 pass ypg (60.9%) and returns just 2 starters. Last year Johnson had 135 yds and 1 TD against a much more experienced D and with the Pirates losing their entire front 7, Tulsa QB Kinne should have ample to find Johnson in the open field as he could top 200 all-purpose yds in the opener.

Michael Floyd, Notre Dame-Last year Floyd had to sit out 5 games but still finished with 795 yds (18.1).  This year with Tate leaving early to the NFL, Floyd will become the #1 option for the Irish and he should top 1,000 yds. He will be matched up against a Purdue secondary that has several question marks and if the Irish get near the 335 pass yard mark like my computer predicts, Floyd will have 100+ yds.

Top Honorable Mentions:

Randall Cobb, Kentucky-Cobb is a great all-purpose player with 500+ yds rush and 400+ yds rec a year ago to go along with 600+ yds in returns. With Louisville returning just 4 starters on defense and breaking in new schemes, Cobb should have a big day.

Uzoma Nwachukwu, Texas A&M-Nwachukwu was a 1^st Tm Frosh AA LY and led the Aggies in rec yds 708. This year they have one of the best WR corps in the country and Nwachukwu should have a great day with my computer projecting 408 pass yds vs Stephen F Austin.

Ahmad Paige, Louisiana Tech-Paige is a Tennessee transfer (PS#9) and has the opportunity to catch several passes in the new pass-happy offense. According the coaches Paige has looked good in offseason workouts and expect Paige to have a career day against FCS Grambling St especially with 3 other Louisiana Tech players out for the game.

No Brainers:

AJ Green, Georgia-According to several NFL scouts, Green is clearly the #1 WR for next year’s draft and will be going up against a Louisiana defense that finished #91 in my PDR a year ago. Even with a new QB, Green is back to full health this year and he should top 1,000 yds by getting off to a great start in the opener.

Julio Jones, Alabama-Last year Jones was injured early and had just 13 rec’s in the first 7 games but had 27 over the last 5 regular season games. This year look for Jones to get more passes thrown his way especially with the loss to RB Ingram to injury in the opener and he should easily top last year’s numbers.

DEFENSES:

My Top Defenses of the Week: Oregon and Ohio St

Oregon vs New Mexico-Last year the Ducks had just 5 returning starters from a defense that allowed 390 ypg and 28.2 ppg in ’08 but improved to 336 ypg and 23.8 ppg. This year the Ducks welcome back 8 starters and rank in my top 25 in all three of my defensive units. They will be facing an experienced QB making his first start in a hostile environment and my computer projects the Lobos to have just 8 points and 172 total yards.

Ohio St vs Marshall-The Buckeyes have my #3 rated defense and my computer projects them to hold Marshall to just 180 total yards The Herd lose RB Darius Marshall who ran for 1,131 yds and 11 TD’s last year and their all-time leading rec at TE in Cody Slate.  The Horseshoe should be rocking on a rare Thursday night home game which should make it difficult on the Herd offense.

Top Honorable Mentions:

Air Force vs Northwestern St-The Falcons gave up just 15.7 ppg and 288 ypg last year and have 4 All-MWC players returning. Air Force has opened up against a FCS opp in each of the L/3 yrs and have outscored them by a 49-3 avg including LY’s 72-0 win over Nicholls St (held them to 151 yds).  My computer predicts similar results here with Air Force holding Northwestern St to 138 total yards and 2 points.

Alabama vs San Jose St-Alabama returns just 2 starters on defense but have VHT’s all over the field who are ready to fill in at several positions. Saban spends most of his time with the defense and I expect the Tide to have another top notch unit and my computer agrees here as they hold San Jose St to 153 total yards.

Nebraska vs WKU-While the Huskers lose their star in DT Suh to the NFL, they have plenty of capable players coming back including DT Crick and CB Amukamara who have 1^st round potential. The Huskers have my #5 rated defense and HC Pelini has gone on record saying he feels this year’s defense could be even better than last year’s which allowed just 10.4 ppg. The Huskers should get off to a good start here as my computer predicts just 155 yds and 5 points for WKU.

No Brainers:

Iowa vs Eastern Illinois-Iowa is a legitimate Big Ten and national title contender with 8 starters back from a D that allowed just 277 ypg and allowed Georgia Tech just 155 yards in the bowl. Last year Iowa opened with FCS Northern Iowa but needed TWO blocked FG's at the end to escape with a 17-16 win and were actually outgained 329-354. After last years scare they should be more focused for and Iowa fans won’t be sweating out the opener as my computer projects them to hold Eastern Illinois to just 75 total yds including -10 rush yds.

Penn St vs Youngstown St-The Lions return just 5 starters on defense and lose their top 3 tacklers from a year ago. However, they don’t call them “Linebacker U” for nothing as the Lions have ten players in the projected starting lineups who are VHT’s. Youngstown St does return 13 starters from last year’s 6-5 team but will be breaking in a new QB and RB. Expect to see plenty of new faces as new HC Wolford has said that if it comes down to 2 players at a position, he will go with the younger one as they try to build for the future. My computer predicts the Penguins to have just 52 total yds so expect the young Lion defense put up impressive numbers here.

Upset of the Week:

Maryland over Navy

This game will be played in Baltimore and surprisingly these schools that are just 30 miles apart have met only once since 1965. Maryland has the large edge of having the entire month of August to prep for the Navy option and I rate their defense at #59 while Navy’s is just #84. Navy does have 12 returning starters including QB Dobbs but Maryland has a huge edge on special teams (#14-73). While they were just 2-10 a year ago, I project this year’s Maryland team to be back in a bowl as they start the season off with an upset.

A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFantasyFootballInsider.com for providing us with their Week 1 Rankings

A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their Sneaky Plays for Week 1

Sneaky Plays - Week 1
By Kevin Mount, CollegeFootballGeek.com


Now that your college fantasy football draft is over and you have poured over your roster, it is time to make your opening week lineup decisions. While some owners may have struck gold on draft day, others may be looking for a sneaky play that could pay big dividends in the first week of the season. Here is a look at a group of players that many fantasy owners would not necessarily think about in their starting lineup, but these guys should have fine opening games.

Quarterbacks

Steve Ensminger QB La Tech vs. Grambling:
His value sky rocketed immediately after being named the starting quarterback in mid August. He will be in command of a new pass heavy offense that should put up some nice numbers especially against weaker opponents. With Grambling on tap for the first week, Ensminger should come out of the gates full bore. I would think 300 yards and 2 to 3 scores would fit the bill.

Darron Thomas QB Oregon vs. New Mexico:
After a long drawn out battle, Thomas was named the starter and should be a nice fit for the offense. He is very athletic and many are saying that he is a Dennis Dixon clone, which is not a bad thing fantasy wise. Thomas should show case his talents in a big way against the severely over matched Lobos. He has a big upside and should make a nice option to start off the season.

Dan Persa QB Northwestern @ Vanderbilt:
The Wildcats usually produce quality fantasy quarterbacks and Persa looks to be the next in line. He is a very athletic guy who can really runs hard and also throws a decent ball. The Commodores play good defense but we believe that Persa can exploit them especially with his running ability.

Kirk Cousins QB Michigan State vs. Western Michigan:
This looks to be a break out year for the Spartans unquestioned starting signal caller. He has a loaded group of receivers at his disposal and should exploit a weak Western Michigan defense which ranked 92nd against the pass in 2009. A game with 250 yards plus and 2 or 3 scores is entirely possible.

Ryan Lindley QB San Diego State vs. Nicholls State:
This junior appears to be on the verge of fantasy relevance and should start off his 2010 campaign nicely against a cream puff in Nicholls State. Lindley has two spectacular receivers in Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson to work with and an improving offense overall. The Aztec offense should be in for a big day in the opener and Lindley will be a major part of that attack.

Running Backs

Caleb King RB Georgia vs. Louisiana Lafayette:
The suspension of fellow Dawg Washaun Ealey kicked open the door for King to be the feature back the first week against the Ragin Cajuns. The Bulldogs return perhaps the best offensive line in all of college football and should have no problems opening huge holes for King to scamper through. Anything less than 100 yards rushing and 2 scores would be disappointing in our eyes. King should post RB1 numbers in the opening weekend.

Josh Adams RB Wake Forest vs. Presbyterian:
This senior will look to be the lead Deacon in 2010. The coaching staff has been hinting that Adams will be given a heavy work load this fall and a game against a church should be a nice start to the season. He may only play a half, but could put up a nice stat line in limited duty.

Tauren Poole RB Tennessee vs. Tennessee Martin:
The Vols may not have a potent offense in 2010, but Poole might be their ray of sunshine. He had a great spring and should be the main man in the backfield. He should have no problem racking some nice stats against a weak opponent in Tennessee Martin. Look for 100 yards and 2 scores at the minimum in the opening game.

Kenjon Barner RB Oregon vs. New Mexico:
The suspension of starting running back LaMicheal James for the opener has paved the way for Barner to light up the Lobos. This speedster has been very impressive all spring and summer long and should thrive being the lead guy in Week 1. A couple of long runs should be in his future as well as 125 yards and 2 scores. Look for a big effort out of Barner and the Ducks in the opening game.

Adam Robinson RB Iowa vs. Eastern Illinois:
What looked to be a three man rotation has thinned down to just Robinson for the first week as Brandon Wegher is not currently with the team and Jewel Hampton is suspended for the opener. With the bulk of the carries, Robinson should have an easy time gashing Eastern Illinois all day long. A 100 yard effort and 1 or 2 touchdowns seem extremely possible.


Wide Receiver

Damarlo Belcher WR Indiana vs. Towson:
The recent news of an injury to Tandon Doss should mean more balls being thrown in the direction of Belcher in the first game. He is a big receiver who should make a couple of big plays against a weaker opponent in Towson. A 100 yard effort with at least 1 score could be in the cards for this Hoosier in Week 1.

TJ Moe WR Missouri vs. Illinois:
With all the turn over and injuries to the Tigers receiving corps, Moe might just wind up being the go to guy in the first weekend. The Tigers will throw the ball all around the field and someone needs to catch all of those passes from Blaine Gabbert. The Illini pass defense is not very good as they finished last year ranked 100th in the country, so Mizzou should slice them up through the air.

Tracy Moore/Josh Cooper WR Oklahoma State vs. Washington State:
These two guys have been impressive this summer and seem to be the leading candidates to break out in the Pokes new pass heavy offense. Fantasy owners know what this Houston type offense is capable of producing and both of these players look like prominent members in what could be a prolific passing offense. Add to that the fact that they face a terrible pass defense in Washington State, and the potential for big stat lines is high.

DeMarco Sampson WR San Diego State vs. Nicholls State:
See above for Ryan Lindley. The Aztecs should pass at will against Nicholls State and Sampson should have a nice day. He has been very impressive this summer and will for a dynamic duo with Vincent Brown. Sampson could easily hit the century mark and a score in this contest.

Ahmad Paige WR La Tech vs. Grambling:
The former Tennessee transfer has looked good this summer and should benefit from the pass-happy offense that La Tech will be implementing this year. Grambling should not provide much resistance and Paige could really have a nice day.

Michael Egnew TE Missouri vs. Illinois:
Egnew had a good fall camp and appears to be one of the favorite targets of quarterback Blaine Gabbert. The Missouri TE has a history of producing quality numbers and Egnew could be the next in line. He could have a field day against a porous Illinois pass defense in the first game.

Week 1 Sneaky Defenses:

The first weekend of action usually has many cupcake games and this opening slate of games is no different. There will be plenty of nice options for Week 1 and here is a list of some particularly appealing match ups.

Boston College vs. Weber State
Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina State
Wake Forest vs. Presbyterian
Texas A&M vs. Stephen F. Austin
Rutgers vs. Norfolk State
South Florida vs. Stony Brook
West Virginia vs. Coastal Carolina
Air Force vs. Northwestern State
Arizona State vs. Portland State
Cal vs. UC Davis
Oregon vs. New Mexico
Stanford vs. Sacramento State
Arkansas vs. Tennessee Tech
Georgia vs. La Lafayette
Ole Miss vs. Jacksonville State
Tennessee vs. Tennessee Martin


While it may take some guts to throw some of these players into your opening week lineup, it could also pay off very nicely for your fantasy team. These early season games against weaker competition are often the proving grounds for new players to emerge and these players all have the ability to shine. If you feel like rolling the dice, you could do a lot worse than this list. Good luck in Week 1 everyone!

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A special thanks to our friends at CollegeFootballGeek.com for providing us with their for Week 1 Player Rankings