Daily Blog • September 8, 2010

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 21-1 95.5% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which last week had Maryland over Navy and the Terps came thru with a 17-14 win. Combined last week's record was 22-1 95.7%!!

Top 25 Forecasts

#1 ALABAMA VS #18 PENN ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PENN ST 142
158
20
2.2
ALABAMA
209
273
32
1.4
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

Saban is 2-3 vs Paterno with all of the meetings while Saban was HC of Mich St from ‘95-’99. These two last met in 1990 (PSU 9-0 road win). PSU is 1-5 vs Top 10 tms (last 4 yrs). The Tide has just 2 st’rs back on D and BCS Title Gm MVP DE Marcell Dareus will be out as he serves his 2 game suspension. Heisman winner RB Mark Ingram (knee) DNP in the 48-3 win over SJSt and is doubtful for this but backup Trent Richardson had 112 total yds and 2 TD in 1H of work vs the overmatched Spartans. Bama had 30-7 FD and 591-175 yd edges in the game. PSU actually trailed Youngstown St 7-6 with 2:00 left in the 1H before scoring 10 pts in 1:50 in a 44-14 win in which the Penguins hit an 80 yd 2Q TD pass and capped an 80 yd drive with a garbage time TD (:54 left). The run game struggled with star TB Evan Royster having just 40 (3.6). Robert Bolden became the 1st true frosh Lions QB to start the opener (20-29 for 239 with 2-1 ratio) but now takes a gigantic step up on the road vs the defending champs who have my #6 D.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 30 Penn ST 20

 

#4 TCU VS TENNESSEE TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENN TECH -20
80
1
1.7
TCU
330
275
49
2.4
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

Tennessee Tech is coming off a 44-3 loss to Arkansas last week where they were outgained 519-187. This week they take on the the Horned Frogs who have one of the top defenses in the country and held Oregon St last week to just 270 yds. HC Patterson is not afraid to put the hammer down on weaker opponents (avg score of 38-12 LY) and my computer projects just 60 total yards for the Golden Eagles.

PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 49 Tennessee Tech 0

 

 

#6 NEBRASKA VS IDAHO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IDAHO 67
183
13
3.1
NEBRASKA
234
288
40
1.9
••
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

First meeting. Idaho had 547-270 yd and 26-17 FD edges in a 45-0 win over vs FCS North Dakota in the opener. QB Nathan Enderle was an impressive 24-37 for 311 yds and a 2-1 ratio but was sacked 4 times behind a rebuilt OL (only 1 starter returning) and that unit will face a much stronger test here. Nebraska has huge edges on offense (#22-65), defense (#10-87) and Special Teams (#8-86). QB Taylor Martinez became the only Redshirt or true Frosh QB to start a season opener for the Huskers and passed for 136 yds and ran for 127 and 3 TD as he also became the first NU QB since 2003 to run for more than 100 yds in a game in the Huskers’ 49-10 win over WKU last week. HC Pellini is 7-0 vs non-BCS tms with the avg win coming by 35 ppg. The Huskers have a big road trip at Washington next week but Idaho is the only foe that was in a bowl last year which Nebraska plays in Sept so they should be focused here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : NEBRASKA 45 IDAHO 10

 

 

#7 OREGON VS TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON 272
163
36
2.2
••
TENNESSEE
124
193
21
3.7
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

This is Oregon's 1st trip to the heat and humidity of SEC country since 2003 (Miss St) not to mention the 1st road game for QB Darron Thomas (230 yds, 55%, 2-1 ratio in 1H vs New Mexico). Oregon did begin the season in fine form last week as they demolished the Lobos 72-0 outgaining them by a whopping 751-119. In ‘06 UT was at home vs #9 Cal and destroyed the Bears 35-17 despite being an underdog. That UT team was more talented and This year they have just 9 st’rs back with a lot of attrition due to their 3rd HC in 3 yrs. The Vols are fresh off their dominance of UT Martin earning their 1st shutout S/’03 (537-142 edge) but are just #119 in terms of experience This year while Oregon, after being inexperienced last year now has 17 ret st’rs with just a FCS team on deck. Despite their 10-3 record LY they were outgained away from home by an avg of 389-360 but this year being clearly more talented and with the return of RB LaMichael James from suspension to go with last week's star Kenjon Barner (206 ttl yds, 5 TD), the Ducks should be able to pull one out in Knoxville.

PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON 34 TENNESSEE 20


#9 IOWA VS IOWA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IOWA ST 120
155
15
3.0
IOWA
205
270
31
2.7
Iowa St is 7-5 in the battle for the Cy Hawk Trophy but Iowa won 35-3 last year as ISU had 6 TO’s including 5 int (all by starting S’s Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood who return) and were outgained 426-303. The Hawkeyes have now held ISU out of the End Zone the last 3 games (14Q’s). Last week Iowa St jumped out to a 17-0 HT lead (279-112 yd edge) over N Illinois en route to an impressive 27-10 win. RB Alexander Robinson had 97 yds and QB Austen Arnaud had 310 ttl yds but with 2 int and must be more careful after throwing 4 int vs the Hawkeyes last year. Iowa jumped out to a 21-0 1Q lead over E Illinois in a 37-7 win in which the they had 24-6 FD and 435-157 yd edges as E Illinois scored their lone TD after a 36 yd run on a fake punt. Iowa also had a blk’d punt TD and a safety in the win which is not surprisingly where they have big edges over the Cyclones (#11-75 D and #13-31 ST).
PHIL’S FORECAST : IOWA 34 IOWA ST 17

 

#11 WISCONSIN VS SAN JOSE ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN JOSE ST 65
105
9
3.0
WISCONSIN
330
270
47
2.1
••
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

The only previous meeting was in 2007 as UW won 56-10 with 579-278 yd and 23-12 FD edges. San Jose St returns 15 starters but with a new HC Mike MacIntyre switching up some positions, they aren’t as experienced as the numbers say. The Spartans were outgained 591-175 and outFD’d 30-7 as they managed to convert just 1 of 13 3rd downs vs Bama in a mismatch last week. Wisconsin had just 10 st’rs back last year but returns 16 this year and is a Top 10 contender. The Badgers have huge edges on offense (#8-113), defense (#28-108) and special teams (#62-120) here. QB Scott Tolzien was an efficient 15-20 (75%) for 197 yds and RB John Clay rushed for 123 yds (7.2) and 2 TD in the Badgers’ 41-21 win over UNLV last week. As usual, UW wants to establish the run and the Badgers will look to exploit a San Jose St's DL which avg’s 264 lbs and allowed 6.1 ypc (#119 NCAA) last year. The UW O-line avg’s 6’5” 323 lbs and churned out 204 ypg last year (#15 in FBS). Wisconsin has ASU on deck but SJSt has to make another lengthy trip here and may put the focus on keeping some players healthy for the winnable games.

PHIL’S FORECAST : WISCONSIN 52 SAN JOSE ST 3

 

 

#14 ARKANSAS VS ULM
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ULM 103
193
14
3.1
ARKANSAS
198
398
49
1.4
••

Arkansas escaped with a 28-27 win in ‘08 (ULM led 24-6 mid-3Q) but won the previous 7 meetings with ULM by 29 ppg. This is technically a Home Game for ULM but is played in Little Rock where the Hogs always play a couple of HG’s and the crowd will be mostly Arkansas fans. The Hogs have my #6 ranked offense led by QB Ryan Mallett and a super set of rec’s and only had Tennessee Tech last week but has Georgia and Bama the next 2 weeks. Last year in an SEC sandwich they jumped out to a big lead vs a woeful Eastern Michigan team and cruised 63-27 and this year’s Hogs team has better depth on D (#30). ULM has just 10 ret st’rs and is actually playing their first game of the year under new HC Todd Berry so Arkansas has a Game Under Belt edge. ULM has my #119 off, #120 def with just 41.8% of the tkls returning from ‘09 (7th worst FBS), so the only question is by how much the Razorbacks will win by.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARKANSAS 52 ULM 10

 

 

 

#16 USC VS VIRGINIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VIRGINIA 75
170
17
2.6
USC
235
285
34
2.1
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS
These two met in 2008 and USC rolled to a 52-7 road victory. The Trojans have won their L/6 home openers by a 46-7 avg score and will be introducing their 1st new HC in nearly a decade as Kiffin takes over in his 1st game at the Coliseum. While the offense appears to have the expected weapons (524 ttl yards), the defense appeared suspect as they surrendered 588 yds including 459 though the air last week vs Hawaii. The Cavs meanwhile ended a 4 year losing streak in season openers by beating a solid FCS opponent in Richmond 34-13 (488-333). With both teams having new HC’s the advantage goes to the team playing their only home game in September. While USC had to travel, they were embarrassed defensively and will right the ship against a Cavs squad making a very unusual cross-country trip.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 44 VIRGINIA 13

 

 

#20 UTAH VS UNLV
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UNLV 92
188
20
2.2
UTAH
229
278
38
1.8

Utah is 10-1 and in MWC play with their avg win over UNLV by 18 ppg. Last year despite being outFD’d 23-14 Utah was in control after an int led to a 8/2pl TD and on the next drive got a 64 yd IR TD. Last week Utah built a 24-13 lead mid-4Q before allowing Pittsburgh to battle back and take it to OT. Pittsburgh was int’d on the 1st pl of OT and Utah nailed a 21 yd FG for the 27-24 Thurs night win. The Utes finished with 405-266 yd edges behind QB Jordan Wynn who threw for 283 (58%, 3-1 ratio). The RB duo of Asiata/Wide took 25 of the tm’s 27 rush att’s (112, 4.5). UNLV hung around #12 Wisky LW thanks to a 19 yd IR TD and an 82 yd FR which set up a 16/1pl TD, 17-14 at half. Wisconsin blew it open in the 2H winning 41-21. To the surprise of many, new HC Bobby Hauck opted to start Mike Clausen (4-10-23, 1-0 ratio) over 23 gm st’r Omar Clayton, although he did see time (6-16-82, 1-0) and was the #1 rusher (59, 6.6). Last time here Utah trailed 14-7 late 1H (outgained 205-91) but rallied for the 42-21 win and the Utes know they have a bull’s-eye on their back after bolting for the P10, so they’ll take no foe lightl

PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 41 UNLV 17

 

#25 STANFORD VS UCLA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STANFORD 203
215
33
2.5
UCLA
157
255
29
2.7

The absence of QB Kevin Prince during most of fall camp proved to be too much for the Bruins to overcome last week vs Kansas St as he was constantly out of sync with his WR’s throughout the game (9-26 for 120 yds). Another scary stat in their loss to the Wildcats was the 313 yds (5.8) on the ground that they allowed (143 ypg, 4.0 ypc LY). UCLA has won 6 in a row at home vs Stanford by 12 ppg but did need a TD pass w/:12 left to pull out the win in the last meeting at the Rose Bowl. Stanford will be in its 1st true matchup of 2010 after blowing by Sacramento St as QB Andrew Luck threw for over 300 yds in the 1H (SU has a 529-167 yd edge). Harbaugh has struggled on the road in his 3 yr tenure with the Cardinal as they are just 5-11 but an inconsistent UCLA team with plenty of inj’s and question marks should make this another tight contest.

PHIL’S FORECAST : UCLA 30 Stanford 27

 

 

Upsets of the Week: 1-0!
HAWAII OVER ARMY
BYU +1 OVER AIR FORCE

 

#2 OHIO ST VS #12 MIAMI, FL
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI, FL 54
213
20
3.1
OHIO ST
212
238
30
1.8

These two last met in the 2002 National Champ Game in which heavily favored Miami lost 31-24 in 2OT on a controversial pass interference call. With a bye on deck this game was the focus of August for Miami who got their 1st shutout S/’06 over Fla A&M, 45-0 on Thursday with 23-8 FD and 405-110 yd edges and never punted. The Canes came out in a no huddle and racked up a 35-0 HT lead with QB Jacory Harris (210 yd and 3 TD) sitting out the 2H. OSU rolled over Marshall 45-7 with 23-11 FD and 529-199 yd edges as Marshall's TD was a 61 yd blocked FG return. The Herd also missed a 40 yd FG, fmbl’d at the OSU6 and had an int returned 30 yds for a TD. Both D’s are in the top 10 (#2-3 OSU) but the Bucks have my #2 offense vs Miami’s #32 led by Heisman candidate QB Terrelle Pryor (247 yds and 3 TD last week). OSU has lost its last two marque non-conference home games to Texas in '05 and USC last year but this year the Bucks are a more complete team on both sides.

PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO ST 30 MIAMI, FL 20

 

#5 TEXAS VS WYOMING
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WYOMING -2
128
5
2.9
TEXAS
227
268
37
2.0
Beginning this Saturday, all Wyoming football players will be wearing a helmet decal in honor of teammate Ruben Narcisse, who died in a car accident on Monday, Sept. 6. The decal will feature the initials “RN” in honor of their fallen teammate. Texas is 3-0 vs Wyoming but last year got off to a slow start trailing 10-6 late 2Q before “waking up” (UT held WY out of end zone). Last week Texas got off to a slow start again, only up on Rice 10-3 early 2Q. They got a 10 yd fumble return TD to go up by 14 and finally found their rhythm in the 1st gm without Colt McCoy. QB Garrett Gilbert, who threw 4 int in his last outing (Title gm), did not have a TO, throwing for 172 (61%). The Longhorns are 10-0 in home openers with the avg margin of victory 42 ppg. WY HC Dave Christensen is all-too-familiar with Texas and has been outscored 211-97 the L/5 times he’s faced them (OC at Mizzou ‘01-’08). The Pokes are 3-21 since 1994 vs ranked foes. For the 1st time in 4 wins, WY did not need a 4Q comeback to get past Southern Utah last week. Instead they fought one off building a 28-10 lead before S Utah rallied for 10 4Q pts. WY was actually outgained 384-355 and outFD’d 24-20. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels threw for a career high 319 (81%, 3-1 ratio), the 1st 300 yd pass gm at Wyoming since 2006. WR Zach Bolger also had a career day with 134 rec yds (26.8) and 5 TD’s. UT has large edges all around and although Texas is on deck, Wyoming has a big homecoming game vs incoming MWC foe Boise next week.
PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS 34 WYOMING 6

 

#8 FLORIDA VS USF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
USF 119
153
19
2.5
FLORIDA
187
298
38
2.5
••
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

1st meeting. USF figures to be much more excited for their battle with an established Florida school off of an FCS foe with a bye on deck. Florida has 5 SEC games on deck (incl Tennessee next week) and struggled last week vs Miami, Oh (outFD’d 16-12, ydg even 212-212). Last year USF was more excited than Florida St and in QB BJ Daniels’ 1st start they pulled the upset. The Bulls are the most experienced team in the Big East while Florida is one of the least experienced in the country (#111) and USF has the veteran QB while this is John Brantley’s (17-25-113, 2-0 ratio LW) 1st big game and he takes on a Holtz defense known for creating TO’s. Florida's offensive issues were masked by Tebow last year and they now continue to feel the effects of losing OC Dan Mullen. Florida gets the win but Gator fans will be on the edge of their seat into the 4Q.

PHIL’S FORECAST : FLORIDA 27 USF 17


#10 OKLAHOMA VS #17 FLORIDA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA ST 129
243
30
2.8
OKLAHOMA
197
353
35
2.7
In their last meeting, #1 Oklahoma beat #3 FSU in the ‘00 Orange Bowl, 13-2, to claim its last National Title. The Sooners should be well prepared for Florida St who is one of the ACC preseason favorites. Last year FSU was an underdog at #7 BYU and not only won they rolled to a 54-28 win. They did lose to #1 Florida on the road 37-10. OU was caught in a lookahead last week but scored its 800th program win, in ugly fashion, barely getting past Utah St. OU only outgained Utah St by 1 yd (422-421) with just 2 more FD’s (23-21). QB Landry Jones hit 17-36 for 217 with a 2-2 ratio but RB DeMarco Murray did have a career high 218 (6.2) including a crucial 4th down conversion in the 3Q which led to his 63 yd score and an OU 28-17 lead. OU got a foot-dragging int with 4:12 left to preserve the 31-24 win. FSU got new HC Jimbo Fisher his first win in a 59-6 stomping of Samford. Both QB’s Christian Ponder (12-14-167, 4-1 ratio) and EJ Manuel (10-13-129, 0-1) saw action as FSU finished with 481-300 yd and 27-19 FD edges. The offense and ST’s are close but OU has my #7 D while FSU’s is #39. The Sooners have something to prove after last week's closer-than-expected final.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OKLAHOMA 38 FLORIDA ST 24

 

#13 VA TECH VS JAMES MADISON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JAMES MADISON 147
40
12
3.3
VIRGINIA TECH
273
265
41
1.0
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS

Virginia Tech has just five days to prepare for this game after Monday's disappointing loss to Boise St. Surprisingly the Hokies special teams and defense (usual strengths) struggled and you can bet HC Beamer and DC Foster will have them better prepared this week. James Madison is a solid FCS team who has made the playoffs in 3 of the last four seasons. Last year the Dukes nearly beat ACC Maryland but gave up a late score in the 38-35 loss. Last week they beat Morehead St 48-7 and currently are ranked #12 in the FCS. While my computer calls for a 538-187 yd edge for the Hokies, I think there will be some hangover effect early from the Boise game before the Hokies pull away late.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Virginia Tech 41 James Madison 17

 

#15 GEORGIA TECH VS KANSAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA TECH 287
98
29
1.8
••
KANSAS
154
218
21
3.1
LAST 13 YEAR MATCHUPS
The Jackets are 9-3 in road openers and Kansas HC Turner Gill’s debut was spoiled by FCS North Dakota St 6-3 as the Jayhawks had a 293-168 yd edge but lost 3 crucial TO’s including an int in the end zone in the 3Q and missed 2 FG’s. New QB Kale Pick struggled (13-22 for 138) and was benched for Jordan Webb (6-11 for 59) who played most of the 4Q. Gill was an option QB and assistant at Nebraksa so he should have some ideas how to defend it. GT beat South Carolina St 41-10 thanks to QB Joshua Nesbitt’s 130 yds and 3 TD (just 1-6 pass for 8 yds) in a misleading final as the Jackets had just a 384-272 yd edge and the teams traded long drives in the 1H but the Bulldogs settled for FG’s while Nesbitt scored 2 TD’s on 4th down. GT allowed 4.9 ypc rush last year and even with new DC Groh’s 3-4 scheme allowed SC St’s Jordan 125 yds (7.4) which surprised even South Carolina St’s HC.
PHIL’S FORECAST : GEORGIA TECH 30 KANSAS 23

 

#19 LSU VS VANDERBILT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LSU 198
213
32
1.8
VANDERBILT
118
203
13
1.9
LSU had a 479-138 yd edge lat year at home but only won 23-9. LSU has not traveled here since ‘05 when they won 34-6. The Tigers have big edges in all 3 areas with my #23 offense, #18 defense and #16 special teams vs Vandy’s #90, #84 and #82 units. LSU (up 30-10 at half) survived a last second comeback try vs suspension riddled North Carolina and the Tigers were outgained 436-313 repeating ‘09’s pattern (outgained by 300 yds LY). Vanderbilt's comeback try vs Northwestern was thwarted by a missed 2 pt conversion with 2:25 left due to a bad snap in HC Caldwell’s debut. The near blown lead vs NC should have the Tigers more focused here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : LSU 30 VANDERBILT 16

 

 

#21 AUBURN VS MISS ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AUBURN 166
240
29
3.0
MISS ST
179
250
33
2.6
Auburn gained 589 yards (390 rush) and had two 100+ yd rushers for the 2nd consecutive game for the first time in school history in LY's win. Miss St is 0-10 and Auburn is 16-1 in SEC openers. Both coaches enter their 2nd year and both are off impressive wins with new starting QB's and this will be Auburn QB's Cameron Newton's first road start (5 TD, 357 total offense LW). Meanwhile Miss St QB's Russell and Relf combined for 372 yds and 5 TD's last week. My computer has Miss St 33-29 with a 429-406 advantage but I think Auburn wins a close one that could come down to the final possession.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Auburn 31 Miss St 28

 

#22 GEORGIA VS #24 S CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GEORGIA 153
200
28
2.6
••
SOUTH CAROLINA
137
280
29
2.2
Georgia has won 7 of the last 8 meetings including 4 straight in Columbia by an avg of 16-8. The winner has scored 20 pts or less in 7 of the last 9 yrs (but LY UGA had 41). SC had only allowed one offensive TD to UGA in ‘07 and ‘08 before allowing 4 in LY’s 41-37 shootout loss. SC is just 5-13 vs Georgia since joining the SEC (‘92) but seven of the last nine in this series have been decided by a TD or less. LY these two were at the bottom of the SEC in experience but both are at the top this year with SC having 16 st’rs back and GA having 15. GA QB Aaron Murray is making his 1st road start but Mark Richt is 33-6 on the road. Both are off blowout wins in their openers, but SC had extra time to prep for this. South Carolina and Georgia had suspensions last week including Georgia's top WR AJ Green and top RB Ealey (expected to play) and SC TE Saunders, CB Culliver and OT King (all ?). This game could go either way, so I will go with the home team.
PHIL’S FORECAST : s carolina 23 georgia 21

 

#23 WEST VIRGINIA VS MARSHALL
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WEST VIRGINIA 180
198
29
2.1
MARSHALL
126
198
15
2.7

West Virginia is 9-0 (avg win by 33 ppg) in this Friends of Coal Bowl instate rivalry that is played for the Governor's Cup. Last year WV QB Brown was injured in the 1Q and WV trailed 7-3 at halftime with 11-2 FD and 139-84 yd edges, but Marshall gained just 53 yds in the 2H on 29 plays and WV escaped with a 24-7 win. Marshall HC Doc Holliday is a WV alum (LB from '76-'78 on coaching staff the last two years). The only recent time Marshall has hosted the series was in 2007 and they trailed 27-23 but WV got a couple of late TD's and won 48-23. Marshall does have a few extra days to prepare (played OSU LW on Thurs) and this will be emotional for Holliday but the Mountaineers are clearly better on both sides of the ball.

PHIL’S FORECAST: W Virginia 30 Marshall 13