Daily Blog •June 10, 2011

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the MAC teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: MAC:

Akron 2010 Best Case 4-8 Close Losses (3)

GARDNER-WEBB - AU led 31-17 but GW tied it with 5:05 left. AU fmbl'd at the GW4 with 2:46 left and then missed a 34 yd FG on the final play of regulation. AU got a TD to open OT but missed the xp. GW got a TD and the xp for the win.

BALL ST - Ball St led 23-16 and AU got a tying TD with 1:36 left to force OT. Each team scored a TD in the first OT. BSU got a TD in the 2nd OT and AU on 3&10 was int'd at the 17.

- See Miami, Oh

Akron 2010 Worst Case 1-11 Close Wins (0)

Akron's only win was by 8 points in a game they led 22-7 with BUF getting a TD with 1:55 left. BUF did get to the AU17 but were still 2 plays away from tying it so I did not count it as a close win.

Ball St 2010 Best Case 7-5 Close Losses (3)

LIBERTY - LIB led this one 14-3 and Ball St had just 1 TD on 5 trips inside the redzone. BS was SOD on 4&2 at the LIB15 and later missed a 44 yd FG in the 1H blowing a couple of opportunities. BSU had a 1st & gl at the 5 but settled for a 22 yd FG in the 3Q. They had a 1st & gl at the 2 but settled for a 21 yd FG and a 23-21 lead in the 4Q. LIB got a 1 yd TD run with 4:55 left for the lead. BS got to the LIB34 and Wenning hit Gibson in stride at the 3 for a sure TD but he dropped it. On 4&2 Wenning was sk'd & fmbl'd with :38 left. BSU was called for 8 pen's and LIB just 3.

EASTERN MICHIGAN - BSU led this one 28-7 with 2:54 left in the 2Q but blew it losing in OT. BSU had a FG in OT and EM on 3&14 got a FD run and then on 3&8 a 12 yd TD pass for the win.

TOLEDO - BSU led 17-0 after 1Q but blew their big lead. BSU had a 2nd & gl from the 2 late 3Q but fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB and TU went 80/16pl and got a TD with 7:56 left to go up by 14. BSU did get a TD pass with :12 left to get within 31-24 then rec'd the onside kick but on 2&10 was int'd at the 6.

Ball St 2010 Worst Case 3-9 Close Wins (1)

AKRON - See Akron

Bowling Green 2010 Best Case 6-6 Close Losses (4)

TROY - With the game tied, BG got to the Troy 40 but was int'd at the 34 on 2&5. Troy got 3 FD's, the 3rd a personal foul got them down to the 14 and they got a 34 yd FG on 2&13 on the final play to pull out 3 point win.

BUFFALO - BUF had a dominating 441-176 yd edge and 27-10 FD edge but amazingly after BUF fmbl'd at the BG2, allowed BG a 5 yd TD drive after a TO, missed a 35 yd FG, were int'd in the EZ, and then an 82 yd IR TD with 10:14 left. BG pulled within 28-26 and after recovering a fumble, lined up for the game winning 40 yd FG but after 3 time-outs they missed it.

TEMPLE - See Temple

MIAMI, OH - The weather dominated this one as it was played in a dense fog and there were many times where you could not see the field. MU led 21-7 after 3Q's and were driving for more when they missed a 41-yd FG and then BG would score TD's on its next 2 poss to tie it at 21 with 6:59 left. After an int that gave them th ball at the BG37 with 2:03 left MU was able to get a couple FD's and kick a 33-yd FG on the final play for the win.

Bowling Green 2010 Worst Case 1-11 Close Wins (1)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN - See Central Michigan

Buffalo 2010 Best Case 3-9 Close Losses (1)

EASTERN MICHIGAN - BUF trailed 21-17 and EM missed a 30 yd FG with 6:30 left. BUF punted with 5:37 (4&2) left and punted again with 2:16 left (4&15). BUF got it back with 1:14 left and got 3 FD's to the EM39 but their Hail Mary was incomplete.

Buffalo 2010 Worst Case 1-11 Close Wins (1)

BOWLING GREEN - See Bowling Green

Central Michigan 2010 Best Case 8-4 Close Losses (5)

TEMPLE - See Temple

- NU led this one 30-13 in the 4Q. The game was tied 13-13 at the half. NU fumbled and CM went 64/8pl for a TD with 7:36 left. CM went 86/11pl for a TD with 1:11 left. The drive included a 4th & 15 conversion. NU rec'd the onside kick and took a knee.

MIAMI, OH - See Miami, Oh.

BOWLING GREEN - CM did get a 63 yd IR TD early 4Q to take a 14-10 lead. Their next drive, CM was SOD on 4&6 from the BG25. CM fmbl'd at the BG41 with 2:26 left on 2&7. BG converted on 4&1 at the 50 and went on a 59/7pl drive getting a 1 yd TD run with :21 left. CM only got to the BG40 on their final play.

NAVY - QB Proctor started for Navy as Dobbs was out with a concussion and Proctor did rush for 201 yards. CM led 24-21 at the half. Navy led 38-24 and CM got a TD with 3:04 left. Navy rec'd the onside kick back at their 20 and punted with 1:04 left. CM went 80/8pl and on 4&2 got a TD pass but went for 2 with :04 left and their 2 pt fell incomplete.

Central Michigan 2010 Worst Case 2-10 Close Wins (1)

WESTERN MICHIGAN - WMU led this 22-13 entering the 4Q. CMU went 75/9pl and got a TD to make it 22-20 with 12:54 left. After WMU missed a FG CMU went 72/8pl and got another TD to make it 26-22 (2pt conv no good). WMU went 61/11pl but fumbled at the CMU 5 with just 1:37 left and CMU ran out the clock.

Eastern Michigan 2010 Best Case 4-8 Close Losses (2)

ARMY - EM took the lead 27-24 with 2:59 left. Army got 16, 13 and 11 yd plays on its first 3 and continued on for a 7 yd TD run with :38 left. EM got a Def pass interference to the Army32 with :03 left but their Hail Mary pass was incomplete.

MIAMI, OH - EM led 21-14 in the 3Q. UM finally retook the lead with 9:03 left in the game on a 9 yd TD run. EM got to the MU33 but was int'd at the 6 with 6:40 left. EM took over with 4:09 left and got 2 FD's to the 21 but on 4&11 fired incomplete.

Eastern Michigan 2010 Worst Case 0-12 Close Wins (2)

BALL ST - See Ball St

BUFFALO - See Buffalo

Kent St 2010 Best Case 6-6 Close Losses (1)

MIAMI, OH - UM had a 206-81 yd edge at the half but KSU led 14-10. UM took its first lead at the start of the 4Q, 17-14, 8pl after a KSU int. UM blk'd a punt and ret'd it for TD with 13:50 left to get ahead by 10. KSU got a TD with 10:25 left to pull within 3, 24-21. UM went on a 61/14pl drive for a 21 yd FG to lead 27-21 with 3:32 left. KSU went 49/9pl and had a 2nd & gl at the 7 but were int'd in the EZ with :56 left.

Kent St 2010 Worst Case 5-7 Close Wins (0)

Kent's wins were by 31, 11, 24, 19 and 22 so they did indeed achieve a worst case scenario.

Miami 2010 Best Case 10-4 Close Losses (0)

Miami's losses were by 22, 38, 42 and 21 points so they did indeed achieve a best case scenario.

Miami 2010 Worst Case 4-10 Close Wins (6)

EASTERN MICHIGAN - See Eastern Michigan

KENT ST - See Kent St

CENTRAL MICHIGAN - MU did lead 17-7. CM closed it to 17-14 after 3Q's. Trailing 20-14, CM got a 28 yd FG with 9:40 left then went on a 63/9pl drive and settled for a 23 yd FG to tie it with 4:33 left. With the game tied on 3&14 UM got a 71 yd TD pass with :19 left for the win.

BOWLING GREEN - See Bowling Green

AKRON - Akron, thanks to a 91 yd TD run, led 14-10. Trailing 19-14 AU got to the UM13 but on 3&9 fmbl'd with 1:46 left.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS - NI appeared to have this one wrapped up. They were within 1 play of the MAC Championship. UM was down to a 4&20 and they threw a pass that was under thrown and turned into a 31 yd gain with 1:30 left. After a sack they got a 33 yd TD pass with :33 left. NI did get to the UM32 but on 3&8 was sk'd and that turned out to be the final play.

N Illinois 2010 Best Case 13-1 Close Losses (2)

ILLINOIS - I was close to not counting this as Illinois did lead by 9 and NI got a 48 yd FG with :19 left and Illinois rec'd the onside kick but Ill lead just 21-19 with 6:00 left and the yards were almost identical at 390-389. Illinois' biggest lead until the 4Q was just 7 points.

- See Miami, Oh

N Illinois 2010 Worst Case 9-5 Close Wins (2)

- NI led 13-0 with 5:47 left 1Q but only 23-14 with 14:53 (4Q). ND got a 40 yd FG with 2:17 left, 23-17 and were int'd on their last play of the game.

- See Western Michigan

Ohio 2010 Best Case 10-3 Close Losses (2)

TOLEDO - See Toledo

MARSHALL - MU led 13-3 at the half with a 233-105 yd edge but at the end of the game OU with :08 left got a 36 yd TD pass but the 2 pt conversion saw WR Dunlop fall down and the 2 pt was ng as OU went for the win and lost by 1 point.

Ohio 2010 Worst Case 7-6 Close Wins (1)

LOUISIANA - ULL led 17-10 but OU used a fake punt to set up a TD and took the lead 24-17 early 4Q. OU extended it to a 14 pt lead but UL closed to 38-31 with 1:36 left. UL did recover the onside kick and got 2 FD's to the 22 but was sacked for an 8 yd loss.

Temple 2010 Best Case 8-4 Close Losses (0)

All of Temple's losses were by 8 points or more so 8-4 was their best case scenario although that should have got them to a bowl game.

Temple 2010 Worst Case 4-8 Close Wins (4)

- TU actually trailed this one with :04 left by 2 pts yet won by 7. TU got a 43 yd FG with just :04 left for the apparent 1 pt win but on the KO Villanova tried the lateral play and TU picked one of those off and returned it 26 yards for a TD and a very misleading final.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN - TU had 2 long drives in the 1H that resulted in a pair of missed FG's, the 2nd of the drives even had a TD called back because a penalty. It was tied at 10 at the end of regulation. CM was int'd in the EZ and TU got a 30 yd FG to pull out the win.
ARMY - Army actually led this 28-13 mid 3Q. TU scored TD's on their next 3 drives to take the lead, 35-28 and then drove 50 yds for another TD with 4:20 left to go up by 14. Army got a TD with 1:13 left to pull back within 7 but TU rec'd the onside kick and got a 5 yd run on 4&3 on the last play.

BOWLING GREEN - TU led this one 28-14 after 3Q's and it was 28-21 when BG took over with 1:47 left and went 69/13pl. They converted on 4&16 with a 33 yd pass and then with no time left on the clock, got a 4 yd TD. They opted to go for 2 and came up short. While BG had a 24-12 FD edge, they only had a 323-307 yd edge.

Toledo 2010 Best Case 10-3 Close Losses (2)

WYOMING - Toledo trailed 20-0 at one point by rallied back to 20-15. They got to the WY33 but on 4&8 with 5:24 left were SOD. They were also SOD at their own 49 with 2:25 left on 4&5.

FIU - Toledo appeared in charge at the half leading 21-7 but FIU took their first lead with 7:34 left in the game on a 10 yd pass. FIU blk'd a punt setting up a 31 yd FG to lead 31-24. TU got a TD with 1:14 left and went for the win and got the 2 pt conv to lead 32-21. The squib kick was ret'd to the 48 and on 4&17 a hook and ladder play was ruled OOB at the marker short but a replay gave them a FD to overturn it. FIU got a 20 yd pass and a 34 yd FG on the final play.

Toledo 2010 Worst Case 6-7 Close Wins (2)

OHIO - Toledo scored TD's on "drives" of 2 yards and 5 yards, which were both after TO's. UT put together its first long scoring drive of the game going 84/14pl for a TD with 13:48 left to lead by 7. OU was int'd on their next drive with 12:21 left, punted with 8:23 left, were SOD on 4&7 at their TU44 with 2:10 left and did not cross midfield on their final drive.

BALL ST - See Ball St

Western Michigan 2010 Best Case 8-4 Close Losses (2)

- WMU blew a couple of scoring chances in the 4Q. Trailing 20-14 they had a 4&4 pass fall incomplete at the NIU8. WMU did score a TD to make it 21-20 with 5:56 left but NIU went 79/7pl to get a 21 yd TD pass with 3:42 left and a 2 pt conver made it 28-21. WMU drove 64/14pl but was int at the NIU14 with :39 left and NIU took a knee,

CENTRAL MICHIGAN - See Central Michigan

Western Michigan 2010 Worst Case 6-6 Close Wins (0)

Western Michigan's 6 wins were by 35, 29, 46, 15, 35 and 34 points so they did indeed achieve a worst case scenario.