Daily Blog •June 11, 2011

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the WAC teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: WAC:

Boise St 2010 Best Case 13-0 Close Losses (1)

NEVADA - BS led this one 24-7 at the half and appeared in control but NV battled back. BS still led 31-24 with 4:53 left but gave up a TD with :13 left. BS got a deep pass down the middle and Brotzman trotted on for basically an xp which would have given them the win and a berth in a BCS bowl but he missed a 26 yd FG. Brotzman then missed a 29 yd FG in OT and NV got a 34 yd FG for the uspet.

Boise St 2010 Worst Case 11-2 Close Wins (1)

VIRGINIA TECH - Boise jumped out to an early 17-0 lead and looked like they were going to run away with it but the Hokies battled back to make it 20-14 at HT and then took 21-20 and 27-26 leads. VT then added a 34 yd FG to make it 30-26 with 7:38 left. After a couple of punts, Boise took over at its own 44 with 1:47 left and drove 56/5pl and got a 13-yd TD pass with 1:09 left to make it 33-30. VT was unable to even get a FD on its last drive.

Fresno St 2010 Best Case 9-4 Close Losses (1)

NEVADA - See Nevada

Fresno St 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (3)

LOUISIANA TECH - LT jumped out to a 14-0 lead but struggled to gain any yards in the 2Q and 3Q. They pulled within 33-28 when they were int'd with 2:28 left and FS got a 51-yd TD run 1 pl later and LT got the ball back with 2:20 left. LT got a TD with 1:12 left but FS rec'd the onside kick.

IDAHO - FS dominated in the 1H with a 219-(-15) yd edge but only led 6-0 thanks to some costly fumbles. ID actually led this one 20-16 and FS with :14 left got a 1 yd TD run to pull out the win in a game where they had a 371-210 yd edge.

ILLINOIS - Illinois got a TD but missed the 2 pt conv and trailed 25-23 in the 4Q. Ill got 3 FD's to the FS 37 but on 4&16 punted 33 yards to the 10 with 9:31 left. FS went on a 9:13 drive incl a gutsy 4&1 conversion in their own terr and didn't punt until :18 were left in the game.

Hawai'i 2010 Best Case 10-4 Close Losses (0)

With no losses by 7 points or lower, UH did indeed achieve their best case scenario at 10-4

Hawai'i 2010 Worst Case 8-6 Close Wins (2)

ARMY - While UH jumped out to a 21-0 lead they trailed 28-21. In the 4Q, with the game tied at 28, Army appeared to hold all the cards. They got a FD to the UH20 and were setting up for the game winning FG when on 3&9 QB Jenkins fmbl'd and UH rec'd at the 27 with :24 left. UH got 13 & 31 yd passes and a 15 yd pers foul and nailed a 31 yd FG on the final play to escape with the win.

NEVADA - See Nevada

Idaho 2010 Best Case 8-5 Close Losses (2)

COLORADO ST - ID actually had a lead of 27-17 late in the 3Q. CSU appeared to tie it with 6:24 left after scoring a TD but missed the all important xp. ID punted with 2:38 left. CSU went 66/12pl and on 4&4 got a 35 yd FG on the last play of the game for the win.

- See Fresno St

Idaho 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (1)

SAN JOSE ST - Early 2Q SJS had a 2&gl from the 6 but was int'd in the EZ. With :43 left in the 1H and SJS at the 14, they were int'd at the 5. SJS had a 259-171 yd edge at the half. SJS also missed an xp which was crucial. With the game tied at 20, SJS got a FD at the 8 but on 3&gl from the 7, took a knee in the middle of the field for a chip shot 26 yd FG and it was blk'd on the final play. In OT, after SJS got a 39 yd FG, ID on 3&8 got a 23 yd TD pass for the win. SJS had a 496-421 yd edge.

Louisiana Tech 2010 Best Case 7-5 Close Losses (2)

- Trailing 13-10, LT blk'd a punt and had the opportunity to recover for a TD but it squirted away from Porter and SM batted it out of the EZ for a safety to cling to their 13-12 lead with 10:01 left. LT fmbl'd at the SM31 (8:43). LT got to the 50 but was int'd at the SM27 with 2:31 left. SM on 3&14 opted to pass with 2:21 left and got a 56 yd pass down to the LT 21 and took a knee.

- See Fresno St

Louisiana Tech 2010 Worst Case 4-8 Close Wins (1)

SAN JOSE ST - LT led 31-14 but SJS got an int with 1:07 left in the half and drove 34 yds for a TD to pull within 31-21. SJS got to 38-31 with 7:32 left and LT got a 6 yd TD run with 3:17 left. SJS got a TD with 2:09 left. LT rec'd the onside kick and punted with :27 left and SJS was int'd at the LT48 with :12 left.

Nevada 2010 Best Case 14-0 Close Losses (1)

HAWAII - This was NV's only loss of the year. They were outgained 346-293, a season low in yards (226 below their season avg). UH jumped out to a 17-0 lead at the half and NV battled back. NV still trailed 20-7 early in the 4Q and closed it to 20-14 but was down 27-14 with 5:27 left. NV got a TD with 3:06 left then rec'd the onside kick and got 2 FD's to the UH35 but was int'd at the 18 and UH ran out the clock.

Nevada 2010 Worst Case 9-4 Close Wins (3)

- The lead changed hands many times in this game. NV led 28-24 with 9:28 left but FS got a TD with 6:27 left. FS then went 63/11pl for a 34 yd FG at the start of the 4Q to lead 34-28. NV appeared done when they were SOD on 4&1 at the FS8 with 8:37 left but got it back and got a 24 yd TD run by Taua with 4:51 left and a 1 pt lead. FS was SOD at their own 45.

BOISE ST - See Boise St

BOSTON COLLEGE - A key factor here was BC RB Montel Harris who was supposed to return to the lineup, injured himself in pregame and DNP so BC was missing an important part of their offense. BC got a 32 yd FG with 3:52 left. BC forced a punt with 3:06 left and got out to their 42 but on 2&13 was int'd at their own 47.

New Mexico St 2010 Best Case 3-9 Close Losses (1)

UTAH ST - NMS led 17-10 and USt finally tied it with 2:50 left in the 3Q. NMS went ahead again on a 48 yd FG with 9:29 left. USt got a TD with 9:07 left and a FG with 2:44 left to lead by 7. NMS was SOD at the USt27 and US took a knee 3x then took an intentional safety on 4th down on the final play.

New Mexico St 2010 Worst Case 0-12 Close Wins (2)

- This was a battle of winless teams and trailing 14-13 NM fmbl'd with 5:11 left and NMSt took over at the NM44 and got a 22 yd FG with 1:56 left. NM's last drive ended on an int at the NMSt24.

SAN JOSE ST - NMSt did jump out to an early 17-3 lead but SJSt led 27-23 and missed a 38 yd FG with :52 left. NMSt got 34, 19 and 18 yd passes. They dropped a TD but then Rogers caught an 8 yd TD pass on the last play to pull out a 29-27 win.

San Jose St 2010 Best Case 6-7 Close Losses (5)

UC DAVIS - SJSt had a 15-12 FD and 339-260 yd edges. At half SJSt led 13-0 and had a 231-89 yd edge. UCD rec'd a fmbl setting up a 9 yd TD drive and got another TD for the lead. and SJSt was int'd at the UCD22 on the last play of the 3Q and missed a 52 yd FG with 3:31 left and came up a point short.

- See New Mexico St

UTAH ST - US had 31-20 FD and 520-449 yd edges. SJSt got a TD with 5:25 left to lead 34-31. USt on 4&12 got an 18 yd QB run to the 19 and then a 15 yd TD put them up with :34 left. SJSt got to the US22 but was int'd in the EZ with :09 left.

LOUISIANA TECH - See Louisiana Tech

IDAHO - See Idaho

San Jose St 2010 Worst Case 0-13 Close Wins (1)

SOUTHERN UTAH - SU QB Brad Sorensen is a BYU transfer and he hit 23-39 and left with an ankle injury in the 3Q and SU ahead 11-10. Leading 11-10 SU rec'd a fmbl at the SJSt24 but with backup QB Olsen in, they settled for a 26 yd FG and missed it. SU was SOD at the SJSt34 with 7:06 left. Things appeared over for SJSt as on 4&1 they were SOD at the SU30 with 3:56 left but after forcing a punt with 2:16 left, the punt went just 28 yds and SJSt went 48/5pl and got a 6 yd TD run with 1:10 left for the win. SU got a 16 yd pass down to the SJSt33 wiped out by a hold then on 2&20, was int'd with :18 left.

Utah St 2010 Best Case 5-7 Close Losses (1)

OKLAHOMA - OU had a pattern all season of jumping out to a big lead and letting their opponents stay in the game. The Sooners led this one 21-0 with 6:21 left in the half. They allowed a FG and then allowed USt to drive in the final minute of the 1H for a TD 21-10. Leading 31-24, OU was int'd at the USt9 but USt did get to the OU31 down 7 and missed a 50 yd FG with 8:18 left. USt was int'd at their own 41 with 4:12 left and OU took a knee at the USt6.

Utah St 2010 Worst Case 2-10 Close Wins (2)

NEW MEXICO ST - See New Mexico St

SAN JOSE ST - See San Jose St