Daily Blog •June 15, 2011

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the Big East teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: MWC:

Air Force 2010 Best Case 12-1 Close Losses (3)

OKLAHOMA - This was another game OU got out to a big lead and let their opponent back in it. OU led 27-10 after 3Q's. AF got a pair of TD's in the 4Q, the later with 3:39 left. AF had all 3 time-outs left so opted to kick deep after their TD. OU got 2 FD's and took a knee.

SAN DIEGO ST - See Air Force

UTAH - Utah did lead this game with a commanding 28-10 lead and had a big game vs TCU on deck so perhaps started to look ahead but AF pulled within 28-23 with 10:22 left and AF was SOD at their own 35 with 1:25 left.

Air Force 2010 Worst Case 7-6 Close Wins (2)

WYOMING - AF did have a 27-12 FD and 445-240 yd edges but AF did not take the lead until they got a 6 yd TD run with 3:41 left to go up 20-14 (xpng). WY fmbl'd at their own 47 with 2:50 left and AF converted on 4&1 for a FD to the WY35.

GEORGIA TECH - GT fmbl'd a pair of punts which were key. GT had a 320-287 yd edge and 18-17 FD edge. GT was without starting QB Josh Nesbitt and had 4 players susp'd and 3 more susp'd the 1H. After a 77/18pl drive, GT fmbl'd at the AF5 (6:26 3Q). GT then fmbl'd 2 punts, the 2nd at their own 14 and AF "drove" 14 yds for the TD to lead 14-7. AF did miss a 37 yd FG with 1:48 left and GT went 59/13pl to the AF21 but were int'd at the 2 with :11 left.

BYU 2010 Best Case 8-5 Close Losses (1)

UTAH - See Utah

BYU 2010 Worst Case 4-9 Close Wins (3)

- UW HC Sarkisian was a former BYU QB and was being honored at HT. Wash took their opening drive 73/7pl to take a 7-0 lead but after BYU missed a 40-yd FG were tackled in the EZ for a Safety and then BYU added a FG 7-5. The tms traded TD's and then UW made a 54-yd FG on the last play of the 1H to make it 17-13. BYU got a FG then a 48-yd TD pass in the 3Q to take the lead. After the tms traded punts UW drove 63/7pl but their 4&2 pass fell incomplete at the BYU23 with 12:24 left. After 3 punts UW drove 48/8pl but Locker's 4&7 pass at the BYU27 was incomplete with 1:51 left and BYU ran out the clock.

SAN DIEGO ST - BYU had 24-12 FD and 413-273 yd edges but the game would be best remembered for a potential BYU fumble that was recovered by SDSt late 3Q . The replay clearly showed that the runner's knee was not down but the call on the field was upheld. Multiple officials were suspended after the game. BYU on the same drive would go on to take a 24-14 lead. SDSt was able to close to 24-21 (6:21 left) and got the ball back with 3:26 left but were unable to get a FD.

- See Wyoming

Colorado St 2010 Best Case 4-8 Close Losses (1)

SAN DIEGO ST -The Rams benefitted from a +4 TO margin and had a 88 FR TD. CSU took their opening drive 68/13pl for a FG and added another one before SDSt scored a TD with :34 left at the half to lead 7-6. The Aztecs added another FG to make it 10-6 and the teams traded TD's into the 4Q with SDSt leading 17-13 and they extended it to 24-13 with 8:05 left. After another SDSt fumble CSU went 68/9pl to cut it to 24-19 (2:43) and got the ball back with 1:42 left at their own 20 but could not muster a FD.

Colorado St 2010 Worst Case 2-10 Close Wins (1)

IDAHO - ID actually had a lead of 27-17 late in the 3Q. CSU appeared to tie it with 6:24 left after scoring a TD but missed the all important xp. ID punted with 2:38 left. CSU went 66/12pl and on 4&4 got a 35 yd FG on the last play of the game for the win.

New Mexico 2010 Best Case 2-10 Close Losses (1)

NEW MEXICO ST - This was a battle of winless teams and leading 14-13 NM fmbl'd with 5:11 left and NMSt took over at the NM44 and got a 22 yd FG with 1:56 left. NM's last drive ended on an int at the NMSt24.

New Mexico 2010 Worst Case 0-12 Close Wins (1)

WYOMING - WY had a 4-0 TO deficit with 3 of their TO's coming inside the NM10 blowing scoring opportunities while the 4th set NM up for an 11-yd drive. The first TO was an int at the NM2 right before the end of the 2Q with WY up 21-14. WY took the opening 3Q drive 80/5pl but fumbled into the EZ and NM got a FG 21-17 (9:30). WY again drove inside the NM10 but fumbled at the 9 on their next drive. WY would extend their lead to 24-17 but NM went 70/8pl to tie it at 24. Carta-Samuels then was sacked and fumbled and NM recovered it at the WY11 to set up a TD and took the lead 31-24. WY then went 67/8pl to tie it at 31 but NM took over with 5:33 left and drove 47/11 pl and got a 38 yd FG on the final play for the win.

San Diego St 2010 Best Case 13-0 Close Losses (4)

The Aztecs losses last year were by 3, 3, 5 and 4 points so they were basically 4 plays away from an undefeated season.

MISSOURI - SDSt led 21-20. MO punted with 9:51 left. They were int'd at the SDSt32 and ret'd 23 yards with just 4:54 left. SDSt got a 31 yd pass down to the 14 but settled for a 25 yd FG with 2:03 left to put them ahead by 4. MO on 2&10 was int'd with just 1:47 left and the game appeared over. SDSt punted 23 yards to the 12 with 1:22 left. MO got a short 20 yard pass to Jackson and then a short pass to Moe which he took 68 yards for a TD. DB Davis slipped trying to make the tackle. WR Jackson blocked SDSt CB Perez into the LB Burris who was in pursuit of Moe. Both Aztecs were taken out of the game. After the game Hoke said it was pretty evident that it was a clip and later received confirmation that the officials did indeed miss the block in the back.


UTAH - SDSt led 27-10 and up 27-17, they had a pass go off the WR's hands and was int'd at the 3 with just :47 left in the half. Utah went 85/5pl and threw up a Hail Mary pass, which off a deflection was caught in the EZ for an amazing 47 yard TD and a 14 pt swing as Utah only trailed 27-24. Utah blocked a punt and recovered at the 3 and got the go-ahead TD to lead 38-34 with 10:21 left. SDS was int'd at the 12 with 6:04 left and then had a FD at the Utah38 but was int'd in the EZ with 1:22 left.

TCU - The Frogs were in control of this game leading 37-14 and it was 40-21 with 13:06 left but SDS got a 33 yd TD pass with 6:43 left then a 29 yd PR set up a 35 yd TD pass to pull them within 40-35 with 4:50 left in the game. TCU ret'd the KO to their 45 but got 3 FD's to the Aztecs 19 where they took a knee.

San Diego St 2010 Worst Case 7-6 Close Wins (2)

AIR FORCE - SDSt did lead this game 17-6 and 20-12 and missed a 19 yd FG which would have put them up by 2 scores. AF went 80/16pl and got a TD and 2 pt conv to tie but the 2 pt was overturned after a lengthy review. SDSt did get a TD with 2:00 left to go up by 9. AF got a TD with :18 left but were still down 2 and SDSt rec'd the onside kick.

- See Colorado St

TCU 2010 Best Case 13-0 Close Losses (0)

With no close losses, at 13-0 TCU did indeed achieve a best case scenario

TCU 2010 Worst Case 11-2 Close Wins (2)

SAN DIEGO ST - See San Diego St

WISCONSIN - It was 14-10 TCU after the 1Q and looked like it was going to be a high scoring affair. UW did get a 37-yd FG on the final play of the 1H to make it 14-13. TCU took the opening 2H KO and drove 71/6pl to take a 21-13 lead and then the two defenses dominated. After 6 punts, UW got the ball with 7:32 left and drove 77/10pl and got a TD with 2:00 left but their 2pt conv was broken up by Tank Carder. TCU recovered the onside kick was able to get a FD and run out the clock to cap their perfect season.

UNLV 2010 Best Case 2-11 Close Losses (0)

UNLV's closest loss was by 15 points so they did indeed achieve their best case scenario

UNLV 2010 Worst Case 2-11 Close Wins (0

UNLV's 2 wins were by 35 and 26 points so they did indeed achieve their worst case scenario

Utah 2010 Best Case 10-3 Close Losses (0)

Utah's 3 losses were by 40, 25 and 23 points so they did indeed achieve a best case scenario

Utah 2010 Worst Case 6-7 Close Wins (4)

PITTSBURGH - Utah did get a 61 yd TD pass with 7:59 left and finished with a 405-266 yd edge but Pitt pulled to 24-21 with 7:11 left and after a 25 yd punt, Pitt had a 30 yd TD pass called back on an illegal shift. They made a FG but after a time-out had to rekick and this time missed but another time-out had them kick again and it just snuck inside the upright for a 24-24 score for OT. Pitt was int'd in OT and Utah got the 21 yd FG for the win.

AIR FORCE - See Air Force

SAN DIEGO ST - See San Diego St

BYU - BYU had a lead of 13-0 late 3Q and was still up 16-10 with 7:38 left. BYU had a punt hit the upman and Utah rec'd at the BYU46. Wynn was then int'd but the DB was stripped and Utah rec'd at the 38. They got a 3 yd TD run with 4:24 left for the lead. BYU went 54/11pl but their 42 yd FG on the final play was blk'd.

Wyoming 2010 Best Case 6-6 Close Losses (3)

AIR FORCE - See Air Force

BYU - It's hard to believe that WY was in this one as at the half they had just 3 positive plays on offense and were outgained 178-(-18) at the half but thanks to an IR TD and a fmbl which set up a 44 yd FG, they only trailed 16-10! WY got a TD with 6:50 left to pull within 25-20 and then had a 4&9 FD to the BYU37 but BYU had 3 straight pbu's to end the drive.

NEW MEXICO - See New Mexico

Wyoming 2010 Worst Case 2-10 Close Wins (1)

TOLEDO - Toledo trailed 20-0 at one point by rallied back to 20-15. They got to the WY33 but on 4&8 with 5:24 left were SOD. They were also SOD at their own 49 with 2:25 left on 4&5.