Daily Blog •June 16, 2011

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the Big East teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: Big East:

Cincinnati 2010 Best Case 5-7 Close Losses (1)

OKLAHOMA - This was another game OU let their opponent back in it after a big lead. OU led this one 31-22 when they went to the prevent defense and UC drove 80/8pl for a TD with :58 left but OU rec'd the onside kick.

Cincinnati 2010 Worst Case 4-8 Close Wins (0)

With no close wins, Cincinnati achieved a worst case scenario

Connecticut 2010 Best Case 9-4 Close Losses (1)

RUTGERS - Rutgers had 19-11 FD and 453-284 yd edges and led 17-7 mid 2Q before the Huskies exploded for 17 pts. Todman got a 66-yd TD run to make 17-14 with 6:36 left then after a 33 yd PR UC went 28/3pl to take the lead 21-17 with 4:13 left. After a RU punt, UConn went 53/10pl and could not punch it from the 1 and got a 17-yd FG with no time left to take a 24-17 lead. Neither team scored in the 3Q and RU had a 4&2 pass fall incomplete at the UC13 with 6:07 left. RU got the ball back with 4:02 left and got a 52 yd TD pass on its first play to tie it at 24. After 3 punts RU took over with 1:31 left and got a 45-yd pass to the UC17 and kicked a 34-yd FG with :13 left for the win.

Connecticut 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (3)

- See West Virginia

PITTSBURGH - See Pittsburgh

USF - BJ Daniels was out for USF and Eveld got his first start. He did have 3 int's included one that was ret'd 55 yds for a TD with 1:11 left in the half. USF had a 16-13 FD and 333-232 yd edges. With the game tied, UC on 3&3 threw a pass which Raymond had a clear pick-6 in front of him but he dropped the ball. UC K Taggert then hit a career long 52 yd FG with :17 left and UC got the win.

Louisville 2010 Best Case 11-2 Close Losses (4)

KENTUCKY - UK led this one 20-6 and at the half had a 271-103 yd edge. An 80 yd TD run by Powell got UL back in the game. UK missed a 25 yd FG with 10:24 left and UL got a short 27 yd FG with 3:16 left after a late hit on 4&17 had given them a FD. That got them within 7 but UK took the KO at their 20 and got 3 FD's and were able to run out the clock.

OREGON STATE - UL had 453-319 yd and 24-19 FD edges but came up 7 pts short. In the 1Q UL fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB and OSU used a 28 and 63 yd returns to set up 23 and 37 yd TD "drives". Trailing 35-28, UL punted with 10:36 left and punted on 4&10 with 2:45 left. They got it back with 1:33 left at their own 12 and got out to the OSU49 but was int'd at the OSU23 with 1:00 left.

USF - UL had a 328-259 yd and 21-10 FD edges. UL got a TD with 1:21 left to tie it and they went to OT. UL was SOD on 4&1 and USF got a 37 yd FG for the win.

WEST VIRGINIA - See West Virginia

Louisville 2010 Worst Case 6-7 Close Wins (1)

SOUTHERN MISS - SM jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the 2Q but it was tied at 21 at the half. SM had a 29 yd FG blk'd to open the 3Q. After a fake punt, SM got an 8 yd TD pass a few plays later to lead 28-21 in the 4Q. UL KR Wright got a bowl game record 95 yd KR to tie it. UL went on a 68/12pl drive and got a 36 yd FG with 6:30 left. SM punted with 4:41 left and UL got 2 FD's including a 3&7 conversion and punted with :08 left.

Pittsburgh 2010 Best Case 11-2 Close Losses (3)

UTAH - Utah did get a 61 yd TD pass with 7:59 left and finished with a 405-266 yd edge but Pitt pulled to 24-21 with 7:11 left and after a 25 yd punt, Pitt had a 30 yd TD pass called back on an illegal shift. They made a FG but after a time-out had to rekick and this time missed but another time-out had them kick again and it just snuck inside the upright for a 24-24 score for OT. Pitt was int'd in OT and Utah got the 21 yd FG for the win.

NOTRE DAME - In the 1H Pitt missed a 27 yd FG, dropped a snap on a 36 yd FG and had a 188-179 yd edge but trailed 17-3. ND extended it to 20-3 and Pitt converted on 4&1 at its own 32 for a FD and got a TD with 3:12 left in the 3Q. Pitt got a 56 yd TD pass by Baldwin to make it 23-17 with 7:23 left. ND had a 50 yd TD pass called back for offensive pass interf and punted. Pitt punted with 3:15 left and got it back with 1:37 left at its own 6. Their 4&4 pass was knocked down from their own 13.

CONNECTICUT - Pitt led 21-13 but gave up a 98 yd KR TD on the last play of the 3Q, 21-20. After a 29 yd punt, UC drove 52/8pl for a 25 yd FG and the lead, 23-21. Graham fmbl'd the KO at his own 21 and UC added a TD, 30-21 (6:19). Pitt drove 70/5pl for a TD with 4:35 left. UC opted to go for it on 4&1 from its own 19 and converted to avoid giving the ball back to Pitt. A face mask on 2&8 gave them another FD. On 4&1 Edsall opted to go for it again and Todman got 9 yds for another FD to the Pitt32 on the last play.

Pittsburgh 2010 Worst Case 7-6 Close Wins (1)

USF - These two were tied at 10 after 3Q's. Pitt got a TD with 14:53 left. USF punted on 4&1 with 12:57 left and on 4&5 with 7:24 left. Pitt missed a 43 yd FG after a 64/12pl drive with 1:31 left. USF got to midfield but was int'd at the Pitt20 on the last play.

Rutgers 2010 Best Case 8-4 Close Losses (4)

NORTH CAROLINA - NC was w/o 12 inelig players incl 7 starters. Trailing 14-13, RU got a 4&12, 14 yd pass to Sanu to the 13 but on 2&6 were int'd at the 7 with 2:42 left. RU got it back at the NC34 but on 4&14 fired incomplete.

TULANE - RU had a 353-245 yd edge. The game was 17-14 after 3Q's. RU punted with 12:06 left and then on 4&6 with 7:07 left. RU on 4&6 was SOD at the TU36 with 1:38 left. TU only got off an 18 yd punt and RU took over at their 45 and got to the 27 but after a hold on 3&20 Dodd was int'd with :48 left and TU took a knee.


SYRACUSE - RU led this 10-7 late 3Q. SU got a 48 yd FG to tie. RU had a FD at the SU17 but after a sk, on 4&20 a bad snap led to a missed 45 yd FG. SU went 66/11pl for a FG with 1:07 left for the win.

Rutgers 2010 Worst Case 1-11 Close Wins (3)

FIU - FIU had a 371-172 yd edge and 15-8 FD edge and Joe Lefeged who was the Jim Thorpe Player of the Week was the key. He had 2 FF, an int and 2 blk'd punts. RU trailed 14-13 heading into the 4Q and blk'd a punt to set up a 24/1pl TD drive for the lead. FIU punted with 12:05 left on 4&23 they punted with 7:29 left and missed a 36 yd FG with 5:03 left and on 4&4 had a false start force a 4&9 and gained 8 yds out to the 30 and were SOD with 1:57 left.

CONNECTICUT - See Connecticut

ARMY - Army missed a 1Q 40 yd FG but still led 14-3. Army went on a 94/13pl drive but settled for a 21 yd FG and led at the half 17-3 and had a 287-65 yd edge. Army was SOD at the RU23 in the 3Q on 4&3. RU got a FD on a 3&23 horse collar which overturned a 1 yd sack and converted on 4&2 and 4&8 (def holding) and on 4&2 got a 3 yd TD pass to pull within 17-10. RU was int'd on their next drive but a roughing the QB call gave them a FD. On 3&13 they converted and then got a 16 yd TD pass with 5:16 left to tie it. Army settled for a FG and RU got a TD for the 3 pt win in OT.

Syracuse 2010 Best Case 8-5 Close Losses (0)

Syracuse did not have any close losses (7 pts or less) so they indeed achieved their best case scenario.

Syracuse 2010 Worst Case 4-9 Close Wins (4)

USF - USF led 9-6 at the half and were deep in SU terr when a pair of pen's forced a punt. SU went on an amazing 98/14pl drive mostly running the ball up the gut and got a TD with 7:15 left to lead by 4. USF punted with 6:02 left and then got out to their own 40 but on 4&5 fired incomplete.

WEST VIRGINIA - See West Virginia

RUTGERS - See Rutgers

KANSAS ST - Syracuse did have 23-19 FD and 498-379 yd edges. The game was tied at 14 at the half and the tms traded TD's but the Cuse missed an xp as KSt led 28-27 with 11:03 left. SU got a TD with 7:52 left then a FG with 3:08 left to go up by 8. KSt got a 30-yd TD pass with 1:13 left but a very questionable unsportsmanlike conduct was called on the KSt WR and KSt's 2pt conv try from the 18 failed.

USF 2010 Best Case 11-2 Close Losses (3)

SYRACUSE - See Syracuse

PITTSBURGH - See Pittsburgh

CONNECTICUT - See Connecticut

USF 2009 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (3)

RUTGERS - A crucial play happened early when BJ Daniels had a wide open receiver over the middle with nobody within 20 yds but threw to the man on the left sideline and it was int'd in the EZ for a TB. RU led 27-22 in the 4Q. USF did drive to the 2 but fmbl'd into the EZ, however, OL Sims fell on it for the TD and a 28-27 lead with 9:33 left. RU took over at the USF48 after a 29 yd punt and went for it on 4&3 but was sk'd for an 8 yd loss with 3:47 left. USF punted with :36 left. RU only got out to their 15 and used a lateral play on the last play out to the 31.

LOUISVILLE - See Louisville

MIAMI, FL - Miami had a 353-294 yd edge. In the 1H MIA fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB on 3&gl at the 1. In the 2H, up 4, MIA got a 37 yd pass to the 4 and could have gone up by 2 scores but settled for an 18 yd FG to only lead 17-10. USF got a TD with 2:00 left to tie it and UM passed up a 58 yd FG and was int'd at the 12 with :05 left. In OT, after MIA 28 yd FG, USF got a TD for the win.

West Virginia 2010 Best Case 12-1 Close Losses (3)

LSU - WV was down 17-0 mid-2Q before going 53/10 pl to get a TD with :48 left in the half. After an int WV went 30/2 pl to make it 17-14 with 12:19 left 3Q. LSU went on a 72/14 pl at the end of the 3Q that ate up 7:13 and ended with a 23-yd FG to make it 20-14. WV would miss a 48-yd FG and would have poor field position the rest of the game and did not get any further than their own 15 the rest of the game.

SYRACUSE - WV led 14-13 in the 2Q and had an int overturned by penalty. SU got a 33 yd FG for the lead, 16-14 with 3:54 left in the half. Geno Smith came in with an outstanding 14-2 ratio but imploded with int's. He was int'd and ret'd 9 yds to their 26 setting up a SU FG, he was int'd in the EZ on 1&gl from the 8. With :57 left in the half he was int'd and ret'd 49 yds to the 12 giving SU a 22 yd FG, 19-14. SU had just 68 yds in the 2H but WV had just 98. WV got to the SU20 but Smith took a sk with :40 left then on 4&22 fired incomplete. WV finished with an 20-12 FD edge.

CONNECTICUT - WV had 414-278 yd and 24-16 FD edges but fmbl'd 7 times and lost 4 of them. WV had a 9pl drive in the 1Q where they had a 9 yd TD run called back by a chop blk and a 12 yd pass called back on illegal formation and they settled for a 36 yd FG. UConn did not get their first FD until under 11:00 remained in the 2Q. UC took advantage of the prevent taking over with 3:23 left and went 63/10pl and a 39 yd FG snuck inside the upright with :01 left in the half. Geno Smith made a crucial mistake when he had a FD on 3&7 but opted to slide a yd short on 3rd down even though the defender was 4 yds away. On 4th down they fmbl'd at the UC29. UC went 71/14pl and converted on 4&3 and got a TD with 6:17 left in the 3Q to actually tie the game. WV fmbl'd at the UC44 and WV punted 31 yds to the 1 with 1:20 left and UC got 1 FD and took it to OT. WV had a 1st & gl at the 1 but fmbl'd and CT got a 27 yd FG for the win.

West Virginia 2010 Worst Case 7-6 Close Wins (2)

- Tough loss for The Herd. They led 21-6 in the 4Q and MU fmbl'd at the 4 with 8:28 left in the game and WV went 96/9pl including a 3&11 conversion and got a TD with just 5:12 left. WV took over at their own 2 with 3:09 left and went 98/15pl getting a TD with :12 left and the 2 pt conversion forced OT. WV made a 20 yd'r in OT while MU missed a 47 yd FG.

LOUISVILLE - UL start RB Powell was banged up and had just 4 carries for zero yds. WV had a 15-9 FD edge and 261-171 yd edge but after they took a 17-10 lead UL had 6 more poss with a chance to tie but their final 2 ended on an SOD and an int.