Daily Blog •June 18, 2011

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the Pac-10 teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: Pac-10:

Arizona 2010 Best Case 10-3 Close Losses (3)

OREGON ST - ARZ made the top 10 AP for the first time since 1999. ARZ was int'd in the EZ at the start of the 2Q and missed a 37 yd FG at the end of the 1H. ARZ got a TD with 1:52 left to pull within 2 but OSU rec'd the onside kick. They punted with :02 left holding on for the win but ARZ did have a 541-486 yd edge.


ARIZONA ST - See Arizona St

Arizona 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (2)

IOWA - At the half Iowa had a 182-72 yd edge and 9-2 FD edge but somehow trailed 21-7 thanks to a 100 yd KR TD, 85 yd IR TD and a blocked punt. Thanks to a couple of TO's, Iowa got a pair of TD's to tie it at 27 but their xp was blk'd. AU went 72/9pl getting a TD with 3:57 left to retake the lead and Iowa did not cross midfield.

CALIFORNIA - ARZ was off a big win over top 10 ranked Iowa and Cal was off a loss. After a scoreless 1Q Cal took the lead early 2Q and led for all but the final 1:11 of the game. Leading 9-3, Cal had a chance to ice the game with 2:37 left but missed a 40 yd FG. ARZ got a 3 yd TD pass with 1:11 left for the lead and Cal was int'd at the 42 on their final drive. Cal also missed a 33 yd FG at the end of the 3Q.

Arizona St 2010 Best Case 10-2 Close Losses (4)

WISCONSIN - This was a game of near misses for Arizona St. Just before the half they ret'd the KO 95 yards but were tackled at the 1 and did not score. ASU appeared to tie the game withe 4:09 left but missed the xp so they were still down 1, 20-19. UW got 2 FD's and ran off the rest of the clock escaping home with a win.

OREGON ST - See Oregon St


STANFORD - See Stanford

Arizona St 2010 Worst Case 5-7 Close Wins (1)

ARIZONA - Tough loss for AZ. ASU led 6-0 at HT. AZ took their opening 3Q drive 91/8pl to take a 7-6 lead and then added a 52-yd TD pass at the end of the 3Q to extend it to 14-6. After a ASU FG, AZ fumbled at the ASU49 and the Sun Devils went 51/12pl to take a 17-14 lead. AZ decided to go for it on 4&1 at their own 29 and failed and ASU added another FG to make it 20-14 (2:59). AZ was able to get a TD with :27 left but the xp was blocked forcing the game to OT. Both teams got FG's in the first OT and TD's in the 2nd but AZ had their xp blocked again and lost by 1 pt.

California 2010 Best Case 8-4 Close Losses (3)

ARIZONA - See Arizona

OREGON - See Oregon

WASHINGTON - See Washington

California 2010 Worst Case 4-8 Close Wins (1)

- This game was 14-13 in the middle of the 4Q. Cal went 65/10pl for a 1 yd TD run with 5:29 left but missed an xp. WSU punted with 4:24 left and 2:09 left, their 2nd punt going for a TB. Cal got 2 FD's and took a knee.

Oregon 2010 Best Case 13-0 Close Losses (1)

AUBURN - Auburn had 28-23 FD abd 519-449 yd edges. Shockingly it was 0-0 after the 1Q but the teams would score on their next 3 drives with UO taking a 11-7 lead. Auburn went for it on 4&G at the 1 and failed but got a safety and added a TD to make it 16-11 with 1:47 left. AU would add a FG on their opening 2H drive to make it 19-11 and UO was stopped on 4&G at the AU1 late 3Q. After an AU fumble, Oregon took over at their own 45 with 4:50 left and drove 55/8pl to get a TD and 2pt conv to tie it at 19 with 2:33 left. RB Dyer had arguably the play of the game when he continued running on a play (several players thought the play was over) and went for 37 yds. AU kicked the game winning 19 yd FG on the last play of the game for the championship.

Oregon 2010 Worst Case 11-2 Close Wins (1)

CALIFORNIA - Cal held Oregon to a season low 317 yards and UO had just 1 offensive TD which came in the 3Q on a 29 yd pass 1pl after rec'ing a fumble. Cal recovered a fmbl for a TD to pull within 15-13 late 3Q. Cal then went on a 77/12pl drive. They made a 24 yd FG for the lead but the K was called for illegal motion and they missed a 29 yarder. Cal punted with 9:25 left and UO went on their longest drive of the year going 65/18pl getting FD's on 2&5, 3&6, 2&4, 3&6, 3&4 and 3&5 and took a knee at the Cal12.

Oregon St 2010 Best Case 7-5 Close Losses (2)

WASHINGTON - UW appeared on their way to a dominating rout leading 21-0 but the Beavers battled back to tie it at 21 in the 3Q and neither team scored in the 4Q. The teams each scored TD's in both OT poss but OSU went for 2 after their TD and came up short.

UCLA - OSU led 14-7 at the start of the 3Q after a TD. UCLA tied it late 3Q. UCLA got to the OSU25 but punted on 4&22 to the 2. After kick/catch interference on OSU's punt, UCLA started at the OSU31. Forbath missed a 46 yd FG with 1:17 left. OSU punted with :48 left but after it appeared time had run out, Neuheisel challenged it and they put :01 back on and Forbath nailed a 51 yd FG for the win.

Oregon St 2010 Worst Case 2-10 Close Wins (3)

LOUISVILLE - UL had 453-319 yd and 24-19 FD edges but came up 7 pts short. In the 1Q UL fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB and OSU used a 28 and 63 yd returns to set up 23 and 37 yd TD "drives". Trailing 35-28, UL punted with 10:36 left and punted on 4&10 with 2:45 left. They got it back with 1:33 left at their own 12 and got out to the OSU49 but was int'd at the OSU23 with 1:00 left.

ARIZONA ST - OSU got a 74 yd TD by Quizz with 14:36 left to lead 31-20. ASU went on a 13pl drive but was int'd at the 5. ASU got a 21 yd TD drive after a blk'd punt and the 2 pt conversion made it 31-28 with 2:51 left. ASU took over at its 12 with 2:42 left but was int'd at the OSU 47 and OSU took a knee.

ARIZONA - See Arizona

Stanford 2010 Best Case 12-1 Close Losses (0)

Stanford's only loss was by 21 pts, so they did achieve a best case scenario at 12-1

Stanford 2010 Worst Case 10-3 Close Wins (2)


ARIZONA ST - In the 2Q ASU QB Threet on 2&gl from the 3 reached the ball out for the EZ and was batted away for a fmbl into the EZ for a TB. ASU was leading 13-10 when a big play happened. On 2&5 SU gained 3 yds and LB Burfect was called for a face mask when he did not touch the face mask. Protesting, he was called for a personal foul giving SU a free 30 yds. A few plays later they got the TD for the lead, 17-13. SU had a shot at getting ahead by 2 scores as they got the ball back after a punt with 3:58 left and on 2&6, Wilkerson broke free but took a knee at the 4 so they could run out the clock.

UCLA 2010 Best Case 5-7 Close Losses (1)

KANSAS ST - At the end of the game UCLA got a TD with 1:19 left. Their 2 pt conversion was just tipped and knocked away or they would have tied it. KSU rec'd the onside kick at the UCLA44. On 3&1 RB Thomas broke through the line and raced 35 yards for a TD when if he was tkl'd the game would have been over for a misleading KSU 9 pt win. UCLA was also banged up playing without 3 OL and their QB was injured and they were without their K.

UCLA 2010 Worst Case 3-9 Close Wins (1)

OREGON ST - See Oregon St

USC 2010 Best Case 11-2 Close Losses (3)

WASHINGTON - The lead exchanged hands many times. USC, leading 31-29 had a chance to go up by more than a FG but a 40 yd FG clanked off the upright with 2:34 left. UW converted on 4&11 for 18 yds then got a 32 yd FG for the game winner.

STANFORD - There were 5 straight scoring drives in the 2H. SU got a TD but missed the xp and only led 34-28 with 9:27 left. USC got a TD with 1:08 left and the xp gave them the lead. The P10 office acknowledged the mistake the clock did not start at the correct time which gave SU more time on their final drive. SU got a 30 yd FG on the final play of the game to pull out the win.

NOTRE DAME - ND did have a 296-261 yd edge and at the end of the game and all 4 of their TO's were in their own territory which set up USC's 16 pts. USC had a wide open TD pass at the ND15 with no defenders within 10 yds but it was dropped and then USC was int'd at the goal line with :16 left and lost by 4. ND's go ahead TD came with 2:23 left.

USC 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (3)

VIRGINIA - While UVA trailed by 10 and got a 3 yd TD pass with :04 left for the final, they generally outplayed USC in the 1H and had a 340-329 yd edge and 22-18 FD edge for the game. In the 1H UVA called a successful fake punt for a 36 yd FD, a flag was thrown but according to the rules, the flag should not have been thrown and the Pac 10 officials later apologized to UVA. Those factors had me leaving this in the "close" category.

ARIZONA ST - USC appeared in control leading 22-7 and 29-14 in the 3Q but ASU got a 66 yd IR TD to pull within 29-27 (2ptng). ASU then went 71/9pl getting a 9 yd TD pass with 6:59 left to lead 33-29 but USC blk'd the xp and ret'd it for 2 so instead of trailing by 5, they were only down by 2. USC went 68/9pl for a 29 yd FG with 3:06 left. ASU got 2 FD's and lined up for the game winning 42 yd FG with 1:34 left but missed.

ARIZONA - ARZ had a 404-382 yd edge. ARZ missed a 34 yd FG in the 1Q and in the 3Q they fmbl'd at the USC15. ARZ converted on 4&3 at the USC31 but was called back by a penalty and they punted early 4Q. USC was SOD at the ARZ15 with 2:10 left and ARZ got an 11 yd TD pass to get within 24-21 with 1:01 left. USC rec'd the onside kick and took a knee.

Washington 2010 Best Case 8-5 Close Losses (1)

BYU - UW HC Sarkisian was a former BYU QB and was being honored at HT. Wash took their opening drive 73/7pl to take a 7-0 lead but after BYU missed a 40-yd FG were tackled in the EZ for a Safety and then BYU added a FG 7-5. The tms traded TD's and then UW made a 54-yd FG on the last play of the 1H to make it 17-13. BYU got a FG then a 48-yd TD pass in the 3Q to take the lead. After the tms traded punts UW drove 63/7pl but their 4&2 pass fell incomplete at the BYU23 with 12:24 left. After 3 punts UW drove 48/8pl but Locker's 4&7 pass at the BYU27 was incomplete with 1:51 left and BYU ran out the clock.

Washington 2010 Worst Case 3-10 Close Wins (4)


OREGON ST - See Oregon St

CALIFORNIA - Cal led 13-10. UW got a 47 yd pass to the 20. With :02 left on 4&1 they opted to go for the win. If Cal had stopped them they would have won but UW got the 1 yd TD run and won 16-13.

- See Washington St

Washington St 2010 Best Case 4-8 Close Losses (2)

CALIFORNIA - See California

WASHINGTON - WSU trailed 21-14 when they were SOD at the UW43. On the next play Polk got a 57 yd TD run, 28-14. WSU went 70/10pl and 73/6pl for TD's to tie it at 28. UW originally sent in the FG unit for a 49 yd FG but opted to go for it and got a 15 yd run by Polk then on 2&21, Locker hit a 27 yd TD pass with :44 left.

Washington St 2010 Worst Case 1-11 Close Wins (1)

MONTANA ST - Montana St had a 209-109 yd edge at the half and led 13-7. They got a 45 yd TD pass and 29 yd FG to make it 22-7 after 3Q's. WSU got a TD with 14:55 left then went 57/10pl for a 19 yd TD with 5:06 left but the 2 pt failed, 22-20. WSU got a 13 yd IR to the 2 and got an 18 yd FG with 2:13 left. MSt was int'd at the WSU22 and ret'd 62 yds and WSU took a knee. MSt took over with :16 left and got to the 44 on their last drive.