Daily Blog •June 25, 2011

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the ACC teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: ACC:

Boston College 2010 Best Case 10-3 Close Losses (3)

FLORIDA ST - Montel Harris rushed for 191 yards and BC led this one 19-17 in the 4Q. Harris got 72 and 48 yd runs but they settled for 33 and 37 yd FG's and led 6-0. FSU had just 51 yds offense until their final drive of the half where a TD with 1:03 left put them up 14-6. BC had a 198-147 yd edge at the half. BC had a 53 yd IR TD called back on an offsides. FSU got a TD with 10:50 left to take the lead. BC punted with 8:04 left and FSU got 3 FD's incl a 4&1 at the BC33 and were able to run out the clock.

MARYLAND - MD led 24-7 at the end of 3Q. BC got a TD with 11:20 left then after a deflected pass was caught for a 63 yd gain to the 3, they got a TD with 7:10 left, 24-21. BC got to the MD41 but dropped a slant pass on 4&3 (4:12). BC's last drive they were SOD at their own 44 with 1:13 left.

NEVADA - A key factor here was BC RB Montel Harris who was supposed to return to the lineup, injured himself in pregame and DNP so BC was missing an important part of their offense. BC got a 32 yd FG with 3:52 left. BC forced a punt with 3:06 left and got out to their 42 but on 2&13 was int'd at their own 47.

Boston College 2010 Worst Case 4-9 Close Wins (3)

CLEMSON - CU led 10-3 early thanks to a 52 yd IR TD. CU fmbl'd and on the next play, BC got a 36 yd TD pass to lead 13-10. It was 16-10 at the half. CU, trailing by 6, missed a 36 yd FG late 3Q then was int'd at the BC13 with 14:03 left. On 4&7 they gained 6 yds to the BC32 with 5:17 left, were int'd at the BC45 with 1:42 left and got to their own 43 where a Hail Mary was incomplete.

DUKE - See Duke

VIRGINIA - At the half UVA had a 236-158 yd edge and led 13-10. BC got a TD with 2:51 left 3Q to take the lead, 17-13. UVA was int'd at the BC26 (12:10). On 3&gl from the 8 there was a review to see if the pass was int but it was ruled incomplete and UVA missed a 25 yd FG. UVA's last drive got to the BC41 with :09 left but their Hail Mary was incomplete.

Clemson 2010 Best Case 11-2 Close Losses (5)

AUBURN - CU was in complete control leading 17-0 and had a 276-56 yd edge when AU drove 65 yds for a 35 yd FG on the final play of the half. AU would actually roll up 258 yards in the 3Q to stunningly take a 24-17 lead. CU tied it early 4Q and the game went to OT. On 3&8 Parker had an open receiver but just missed him in the EZ on what would have been a TD. They got the game tying 27 yd FG but the C had moved and this time they missed a 32 yd FG and AU won.

NORTH CAROLINA - See North Carolina

BOSTON COLLEGE - See Boston College

- See Florida St

USF - USF led this one 17-3 thanks to an big IR and a blk'd P. CU roared back to make it 17-13 at HT. USF extended it to 31-13 in the 4Q. CU took over with 3:46 and drove 59/7 pl and got a TD with 1:47 left to make it 31-19 (2 pt conv no good). CU recovered the onside kick and a personal foul on USF all'd them to take over at the USF28 and they got another TD with :43 left to cut it to 31-26 but this time USF rec'd the ensuing onside kick and ran out the clock.

Clemson 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (1)

NC STATE - CU was outgained 275-260. Both teams blew numerous chances. NCSt led 10-0 early and 13-7 in the 4Q. CU got a TD with 6:18 left for the lead. P Zimmerman made a leaping 1-handed grab of an arrant punt snap and got off a punt with 2:56 left and NCSt on 4&10 were SOD at their own 27 on the last drive.

Duke 2010 Best Case 7-5 Close Losses (4)

WAKE FOREST - See Wake Forest

MARYLAND - See Maryland

BOSTON COLLEGE - This one appeared over. BC led 21-9 and on 3&4 from the Duke 9, about to go up by 19 pts, BC not only fmbl'd but it was ret'd 95 yds for a TD, the longest FR in Duke history with 12:09 left to make it 21-16. Duke punted with 7:00 left and then on 4&gl Renfree's potential game winning pass was batted down by DE Holloway.

NORTH CAROLINA - See North Carolina

Duke 2010 Worst Case 1-11 Close Wins (2)

NAVY -Navy was off their big win over Notre Dame. Duke led this one 24-0 with a 268-67 yd edge. On 4&10 roughing the passer gave Navy a FD and they got a TD with 2:34 left. Duke rec'd the onside kick but Navy got it back with :57 left. On 4&3 they were SOD at their own 43. Duke took a knee.

VIRGINIA - The lead changed often in the 2H and UVA led 48-47 with 2:26 left. Duke got a 35 yd TD run with :40 left to lead 55-48. UVA got to the Duke39 but their final 3 passes were incomplete.

Florida St 2010 Best Case 12-2 Close Losses (2)

NC STATE - Tough loss for FSU. At the half FSU led 21-7 and had a commanding 208-116 yd edge. Ponder threw incomplete but it was ruled a fmbl and replays did not overturn it, a tough break for FSU. On 3&8 NCSt got a 20 yd TD run to tie it at 21. On 3&3 Ponder had a FD if he cut it straight up field but decided to string it out and was tkl'd 1 yd short and they settled for a 31 yd FG with 9:07 left, 24-21. NCSt had a 4&gl at the 1 and sent the FG unit on but after calling time-out opted to go for it and got a 1 yd TD pass with 2:40 left. FSU went 62/10pl and had a 1st & gl at the 8 but on 2&gl from the 4 Ponder and his RB had a miscommunication and fmbl'd. Their TE was wide open or it would have been a TD.

NORTH CAROLINA - See North Carolina

Florida St 2010 Worst Case 8-6 Close Wins (2)

BOSTON COLLEGE - See Boston College

CLEMSON - EJ Manuel started for FSU. CU actually dominated most of the game. At the half CU had a 209-79 yd edge and led 10-3. CU had a 34 yd FG blk'd in the 1Q and missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q. CU was int'd in the EZ on 2&7 and FSU went 85/12pl for a TD and the lead, 13-10. CU got a 29 yd FG on 4&4 to tie it with :53 left but FSU got a 55 yd FG on 3&10 for the win.

Georgia Tech 2010 Best Case 9-4 Close Losses (3)

KANSAS - GT came in a double digit favorite and had a 407-320 yd edge. KU led 28-17 and GT pulled to 28-25 and gotthe ball down to the KU40 but were SOD.

VIRGINIA TECH - GT was in control of the game leading 14-0 early but lost QB Nesbitt late 2Q to injury and backup QB Washington hit just 2-7 for 80 yds. With GT struggling behind their new QB, VT took the lead, 21-14 but GT got a TD with 2:34 left to tie it 21-21. VT got a 90 yd KR TD with 2:23 left. GT got to the VT16 but on 2&1 was int'd with :08 left.

- GT fmbl'd a pair of punts which were key. GT had a 320-287 yd edge and 18-17 FD edge. GT was without starting QB Josh Nesbitt and had 4 players susp'd and 3 more susp'd the 1H. After a 77/18pl drive, GT fmbl'd at the AF5 (6:26 3Q). GT then fmbl'd 2 punts, the 2nd at their own 14 and AF "drove" 14 yds for the TD to lead 14-7. AF did miss a 37 yd FG with 1:48 left and GT went 59/13pl to the AF21 but were int'd at the 2 with :11 left.

Georgia Tech 2010 Worst Case 4-9 Close Wins (2)

WAKE FOREST - See Wake Forest

NORTH CAROLINA - See North Carolina

Maryland 2010 Best Case 10-3 Close Losses (1)

MIAMI - UM had a 25-15 FD and 504-254 yd edges. MD, however, led 20-18 in the 4Q. On 3&11 UM got a 16 yd scramble by Morris for a FD then a 35 yd TD pass with :37 left which gave them a 26-20 lead (2ptng). MD got to the UM30 but their final pass was dropped.

Maryland 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (4)

NAVY -MD did jump out to a 14-0 lead vs Navy but were outgained 485-272 and Navy had a 39:26 to 20:34 TOP. Navy had a 32 yd FG hit the upright in the 1Q. On 3&gl from the 1 in the 2Q they fmbl'd. On 3&gl from the 6 with :12 left they ran out of time and could not get the FG off. In the 3Q they fmbl'd at the 1. At the end of the game on 4&gl from the 1 they went for the win and were stopped.

- Duke did have a 399-294 yd edge and 21-14 FD edge. After a 1st & gl at the 6, Duke settled for a 20 yd FG in the 1Q. They would add 40 and 34 yd FG's and led 9-0 late 2Q. Duke had a FD at the MD19 but on 3&8 was int'd in the EZ for a TB with 4:38 left in the quarter on the game's key play. Roughing the passer gave MD a FD on 3rd & 11 and they went on an 80/8pl drive for a TD with 1:12 left in the half. At the half Duke had a 227-132 yd edge but only led 9-7. MD got an 84 yd PR TD and 71 yd run for a TD to lead 21-9. Duke got a TD with 7:20 left to pull within 5 and then had a pass over the middle bounce off the WR's hands and on 4&15, fired incomplete with 1:55 left and MD got 1 FD and took a knee.

- See Boston College

NC STATE - NCSt had 32-18 FD and 434-408 yd edges but trailed 38-17 after a 71-yd MD TD pass with 6:26 left. NCSt went 65/13 pl for a 1-yd TD on 4&goal with 2:39 left then recovered the onside kick and went 40/10 pl converting 4&10 and 4&3 for another TD with 1:16 left. MD recovered the onside kick and were able to get a controversial FD on 4&1 to run out the clock.

Miami, Fl 2010 Best Case 9-4 Close Losses (2)

VIRGINIA - Miami QB Harris was inj after throwing 1 int. They brought in a 2nd string QB who threw 2 ints then where down to their 4th string QB who threw 2 more int. UM had a 210-176 yd edge at the half but trailed 14-0. Despite trailing 24-0, the Hurricane rallied to pull within 24-19 with 4:39 left and just needed 1 stop. UVA converted on 3&8 and were able to run out the clock and pull out a 5 pt win.

USF - Miami had a 353-294 yd edge. In the 1H MIA fmbl'd into the EZ for a TB on 3&gl at the 1. In the 2H, up 4, MIA got a 37 yd pass to the 4 and could have gone up by 2 scores but settled for an 18 yd FG to only lead 17-10. USF got a TD with 2:00 left to tie it and UM passed up a 58 yd FG and was int'd at the 12 with :05 left. In OT, after MIA 28 yd FG, USF got a TD for the win.

Miami, Fl 2010 Worst Case 6-7 Close Wins (1)

MARYLAND - See Maryland.

North Carolina 2010 Best Case 11-2 Close Losses (3)

LSU - LSU had a big edge as NC was without 13 key players and Davis had 55 to 60 kids including some walk-ons seeing their first game action. The lack of depth hurt the return game as Patrick Peterson had 257 yards in PR/KR's. LSU jumped out to a 30-10 lead at the half but NC battled back. At the end of the game, trailing by 6, Penalto dropped a TD pass in the EZ. On 4&1 and LB grabbed Penalto from behind but pass interference was not called and he dropped another TD pass and LSU escaped. NC had a 20-11 FD edge and 436-313 yd edge.

GEORGIA TECH - NC was playing without 12 susp'd players and led by 7 and had the ball in the 3Q but fmbl'd. GT rallied to lead 30-24. NC only got to the GT39 with 1:16 left when they were SOD.

NC STATE - Tough loss for NC. NC led 19-10 in the 3Q when the key play of the game happened. QB Wilson was under heavy pressure on a 4&2 play and basically threw it out of the back of the EZ. Amazingly the ball was thrown into 3 players (2NC, 1NCSt) was batted back towards the field and caught by a trailing NCSt player for a TD. NCSt added an 87 yd PR TD to stunningly take the lead and would go on to a 4 pt win.

North Carolina 2010 Worst Case 2-11 Close Wins (6)

RUTGERS - NC was w/o 12 inelig players incl 7 starters. Trailing 14-13, RU got a 4&12, 14 yd pass to Sanu to the 13 but on 2&6 were int'd at the 7 with 2:42 left. RU got it back at the NC34 but on 4&14 fired incomplete.

CLEMSON - NC led 21-10 vs Clemson but were outgained 305-255. CU threw a pass where the defenders jumped in front of the ball and WR Brown got a 74 yd TD with 5:31 left but NC got 3 FD's and not punt until :13 remained.

WILLIAM & MARY - NC was fortunate to escape with the win despite a 421-286 yd edge. W&M missed a 23 yd FG in the 1Q but still led 17-7 at the half after getting a TD and a FG in the final :23. At half WM actually had a 204-133 yd edge. NC finally took the lead with 5:21 to go on a 67 yd run by White. WM on 4&17 fired incomplete from the NC45 with 2:48 left and got to their 45 again but on 3&27 was int'd at the 28.

FLORIDA ST - NC had a 473-374 yd edge. FSU missed a 40 yd FG with :07 left WR to deal Jimbo Fisher his first loss at home. NC trailed 28-24 when they went 92/5pl for a TD with 5:05 left 3Q. NC did have a bad snap go over their P's head and FSU rec'd at the 1 getting a gift TD with 5:54 left for the lead. NC had a 1st & gl at the 9 but settled for a 22 yd FG with :55 left. FSU got a 50 yd KR to the NC45 prior to missing a chipshot 40 yd FG.

DUKE - NC led 24-10 when they got an int on 4&10 which pinned them at their own 2 and had they dropped the ball, they would have had it back at the 41. After recording a safety, Duke drove for a TD with 3:22 left to pull within 5. NC punted with :43 left and Duke only got to their own 41.

TENNESSEE - For the 2nd time this year the refs announced the game was over and UT had won but once again ended up losing. UT missed a crucial xp when taking a 20-17 lead with 5:16 left. UT got the ball back after NC was SOD at their own 44 with 1:36 left. UT punted on 4&11 with :31 left and it went for a TB. NC got a 28 yd pass and a late hit moved them ahead. On 2nd & 10 from the UT25 they gained 7 yds and the clock kept running with NC not having a time-out. With :05 left NC sent the FG unit on the field. There were 16 players on the field when NC spiked the ball with :01 left. They were only accessed a 5 yd penalty, allowed to regroup, set the FG unit up and when the play was blown in play the C snapped the ball and they got a 40 yd FG to force OT. UT's DL Williams threw his helmet in disgust after they had ruled there was :01 left about :05 after the game was officially ruled over. That allowed NC to start at the 12 yd line in OT. Each team scored a TD but then UT was int'd at the NC7 and NC got a 23 yd FG for the win.

NC State 2010 Best Case 12-1 Close Losses (3)

EAST CAROLINA - EC had a record home crowd and jumped out to a 21-0 lead but NCSt pulled within 24-21 at the half. NCSt led after a 31 yd FG with 2:59 left but EC tied it with 1:04 left. NCSt was int'd at the EC6 with :07 left and EC took a knee. In OT EC scored a TD but missed the xp however NCSt Wilson was int'd in the EZ on 3&12.

CLEMSON -See Clemson.

MARYLAND - See Maryland

NC State 2010 Worst Case 6-7 Close Wins (3)

UCF - The Wolfpack jumped out to a 21-0 lead thanks in part to a 20 yard drive after a fumbled PR. NCSt also benefitted from a 5-0 TO edge. UCF inserted true frosh Godfrey at QB in the 2H and rolled to a 308-239 yd edge for the game. UCF got within 1 score with 4:29 left and then got a 20 yd pass down to the NCSt11 with :51 left but fmbl'd at the end of it.

FLORIDA ST - See Florida St

N CAROLINA - See North Carolina

Virginia 2010 Best Case 6-6 Close Losses (2)

USC - While UVA trailed by 10 and got a 3 yd TD pass with :04 left for the final, they generally outplayed USC in the 1H and had a 340-329 yd edge and 22-18 FD edge for the game. In the 1H UVA called a successful fake punt for a 36 yd FD, a flag was thrown but according to the rules, the flag should not have been thrown and the Pac 10 officials later apologized to UVA. Those factors had me leaving this in the "close" category.

DUKE - See Duke

BOSTON COLLEGE - See Boston College

Virginia 2010 Worst Case 3-9 Close Wins (1)

MIAMI - See Miami.

Virginia Tech 2010 Best Case 13-1 Close Losses (2)

BOISE ST - Boise jumped out to an early 17-0 lead and looked like they were going to run away with it but the Hokies battled back to make it 20-14 at HT and then took 21-20 and 27-26 leads. VT then added a 34 yd FG to make it 30-26 with 7:38 left. After a couple of punts, Boise took over at its own 44 with 1:47 left and drove 56/5pl and got a 13-yd TD pass with 1:09 left to make it 33-30. VT was unable to even get a FD on its last drive.

JAMES MADISON - VT was coming off the disappointing loss to Boise and had just 5 days to prepare and clearly were in a flat spot. The Hokies did have 23-14 FD and 362-235 yd edges but a 3-0 TO deficit. VT led 10-0 2Q before JMU ot a 77 yd TD pass on 3&17. VT added two more FG's to lead 16-7 3Q but JMU scored a TD got an int and scored another TD to take the lead 21-16 with 13:45 left. VT fired incomplete on 4&2 at the JMU17, then fumbled at the JMU19 and JMU was able to get 3 FD's and run out the clock.

Virginia Tech 2010 Worst Case 10-4 Close Wins (1)

GEORGIA TECH - See Georgia Tech

Wake Forest 2010 Best Case 5-7 Close Losses (2)

GEORGIA TECH - WF was w/o their starting QB then lost their #2 and #3 QB's to injury and finished the game with #4 Tanner Price. WF held GT to 209 yards rushing. WF led 17-6 and after a 10 yd GT punt, started a drive at the GT36 but went 3 & out. GT got a 42 yd FG with 10:23 left. They converted on 4&5 with a 20 yd TD pass with 6:50 left (2pt tied it). WF had a 1st&gl at the 10 but settled for a 26 yd FG with 2:21 left and the lead, 20-17. GT on 3&gl got a 9 yd TD pass with :15 left to escape with the win.

NAVY - WF went 84/11pl and got an 11 yd TD pass with :12 left in the half to lead 17-14. WF had a 251-165 yd edge. WF got a 12 yd TD pass with 1:08 left in the 3Q to lead 24-21 then went on a 59/14pl drive settling for a 31 yd FG with 8:34 left in the game, 27-21. Navy appeared done when on 4&11 they were SOD at the WF38 with 3:13 left but got it back with 2:08 left and converted on 4&1 and 3&10 and then a 6 yd TD pass with :26 left. WF needed just a FG but their final 3 passes from the 49 fell incomplete.

Wake Forest 2010 Worst Case 2-10 Close Wins (1)

DUKE - It was tied at 35 at the half and Duke not only had 8 dropped passes, but 2 went off the hands of the WR's and was int'd. Duke's P also did not handle a snap and WF ret'd it 18 yds for a TD. WF got a TD with 2:53 left to lead 54-41. Duke was int'd but then got a 51 yd TD pass with 1:39 left to get within 6 but WF recovered the onside kick and took a knee.