Daily Blog •June 28, 2011

One of the more popular sections of the regional magazines was the Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios where I take a look at the 2010 season and what teams records could have been in the Best Case and the Worst Case scenarios. Sometimes teams with solid winning records caught some breaks and were actually just a few plays away from a losing record. Some teams with losing records may have been just a handful of plays away from a winning record. Listed below are the Big 12 teams. The Best Case scenario record shows them winning all the games they lost by a TD or less. The Worst Case scenario shows what their record would have been if they had lost all the games they won by a TD or less.

Best Case/Worst Case Scenarios: Big 12:

Baylor 2010 Best Case 8-5 Close Losses (1)

TEXAS TECH - The two teams nearly traded score for score in the 1H as the Red Raiders took a 35-28 lead into the break. They extended it to 45-28 after their first two drives of the 2H but BU cut it to 45-38 early 4Q. BU got down to the TT16 with 3:47 left but their 4&15 attempt came short. They got the ball back with :57 left and got to the TT31 but ran out of time.

Baylor 2010 Worst Case 5-8 Close Wins (2)

COLORADO - CU lost their top RB to injury and with their depleted RB's was forced to use WR Jefferson in that role. CU led 15-13 in the 3Q and was threatening to add more as Jefferson raced 23 yards to the EZ but fumbled it away for a TB which turned out to be the play of the game. CU got to the BU19 but their final pass was batted down by Chance Casey.

KANSAS ST - I almost did not put this one in. It was a somewhat even game early but BU opened up a 47-28 lead and KSU got a TD with :07 left to get within 5 and BU recovered the onside kick.

Colorado 2010 Best Case 8-4 Close Losses (3)

- See Baylor

TEXAS TECH - CU led 24-14 after 3Q's. CU missed a 35 yd FG with 12:49 left. TT tied it with 10:54 left. TT got its first lead on a 36 yd FG with 2:08 left. CU fired incomplete at their own 22 with 1:44 left and were stopped on their last drive as well.

KANSAS - See Kansas

Colorado 2010 Worst Case 4-8 Close Wins (1)

GEORGIA - UGA led 24-22 and CU got a 38 yd FG but roughing the K gave CU a FD and the Buffs got a 11 yd TD run on the next play to take the lead, 29-24 with 4:39 left in the 3Q. UGA went 80/10pl but on 4&gl from the 2 opted for a 20 yd FG with 12:30 to go, 29-27. UGA got to the CU27 with in distance for a 44 yard game winning FG. CU blitzed from the outside, forced a fumble and rec'd at the 30 and held on for the win.

Iowa St 2010 Best Case 7-5 Close Losses (2)

- ISU led 20-17 in the 4Q. KSU got a TD with 6:47 left then rec'd a fumble with 1:58 left and got a 42 yd FG with 1:38 left to go up by 7. ISU got to the KSU36 but on 4&6 fired incomplete.

NEBRASKA - See Nebraska

Iowa St 2010 Worst Case 4-8 Close Wins (1)

TEXAS - See Texas

Kansas 2010 Best Case 4-8 Close Losses (1)

NORTH DAKOTA ST - KU had a 293-168 yd edge. With KU punting from its own EZ, they had a personal foul on the PR, ND started at the KU32 and got a 44 yd FG in the 2Q. In the 3Q KU fmbl'd at their own 45 and ND went on a 30 yd "drive" for a 32 yd FG to lead 6-3. KU got to the ND7 but was int'd in the EZ for a TB. KU's 42 yd FG with 6:50 left was wide left. KU fmbl'd at their own 36 with 3:10 left and then on 4&6 fired incomplete from its own 24 with :29 left. The last time KU allowed only 6 pts and lost was back in 1962.

Kansas 2010 Worst Case 1-11 Close Wins (2)

GEORGIA TECH - GT came in a double digit favorite and had a 407-320 yd edge. KU led 28-17 and GT pulled to 28-25 and got the ball down to the KU40 but were SOD.

COLORADO - This was a ridiculous loss for CU as they actually led 45-17 with 14:52 left in the 4Q. KU's points in the 4Q were the 2nd most scored in NCAA history with Washington getting 36 back in 1990. The comeback was ignited after a KU TD on a controversial onside kick which looked like CU recovered but was given to KU. On 1&gl CU appeared to have a TD but it was ruled incomplete and with :08 left, QB Hawkins floated a pass to the back of the EZ from the 8 and the ball fell incomplete. CU Coach Hawkins was fired days after the game.

Kansas St 2010 Best Case 9-4 Close Losses (2)

BAYLOR - See Baylor

SYRACUSE - Syracuse did have 23-19 FD and 498-379 yd edges. The game was tied at 14 at the half and the tms traded TD's but the Cuse missed an xp as KSt led 28-27 with 11:03 left. SU got a TD with 7:52 left then a FG with 3:08 left to go up by 8. KSt got a 30-yd TD pass with 1:13 left but a very questionable unsportsmanlike conduct was called on the KSt WR and KSt's 2pt conv try from the 18 failed.

Kansas St 2010 Worst Case 4-9 Close Wins (3)

UCLA - At the end of the game UCLA got a TD with 1:19 left. Their 2 pt conversion was just tipped and knocked away or they would have tied it. KSU rec'd the onside kick at the UCLA44. On 3&1 RB Thomas broke through the line and raced 35 yards for a TD when if he was tkl'd the game would have been over for a misleading KSU 9 pt win. UCLA was also banged up playing without 3 OL and their QB was injured and they were without their K.

IOWA ST - See Iowa St

UCF - UCF outplayed KSU in this one with a 20-11 FD edge and 344-272 yd edge. UCF also led the majority of the game and at the half had a 170-43 yd edge. KSU tied it at 10 early 4Q and then trailing 13-10 got a TD with :24 let to pull out the win. It was their first lead of the game. UCF also missed 2 FG's during the game.

Missouri 2010 Best Case 12-1 Close Losses (2)

TEXAS TECH - TT actually had 29-14 FD and 485-355 yd edges but were trailing 17-3 in middle of 2Q. TT went up 24-17 with 6:46 left 3Q and the Raiders actually missed a couple of opportunities to add to the score but MO got no further than the TT33 in the last 1 1/2 qtrs.

IOWA - While IU did lead 17-3 in the 2Q, MO had the lead and the ball. They were at the IU29 up 24-20 when IU got a 72 yd IR TD with 5:32 left. MO's last drive was SOD.

Missouri 2010 Worst Case 9-4 Close Wins (1)

SAN DIEGO ST - SDSt led 21-20. MO punted with 9:51 left. They were int'd at the SDSt32 and ret'd 23 yards with just 4:54 left. SDSt got a 31 yd pass down to the 14 but settled for a 25 yd FG with 2:03 left to put them ahead by 4. MO on 2&10 was int'd with just 1:47 left and the game appeared over. SDSt punted 23 yards to the 12 with 1:22 left. MO got a short 20 yard pass to Jackson and then a short pass to Moe which he took 68 yards for a TD. DB Davis slipped trying to make the tackle. WR Jackson blocked SDSt CB Perez into the LB Burris who was in pursuit of Moe. Both Aztecs were taken out of the game. After the game Hoke said it was pretty evident that it was a clip and later received confirmation that the officials did indeed miss the block in the back.

Nebraska 2010 Best Case 13-1 Close Losses (3)

TEXAS - The Huskers came in 5-0 and ranked #5 while the Horns were B2B losses. TX jumped on NU early and led 17-3 at the half. TX extended it to 20-3 before NU got a FG then a 95 yd PR to cut it to 20-13 with 3:02 left. TX recovered the onside kick and was able to run out the clock with 2 FD's.

TEXAS A&M - The story of this game was the discrepancy in the number of penalties as NU was called for 16 (145 yds) while A&M was only called for 2 (10 yds). NU HC Pelini was visibly upset during the game not only at the referees but also his QB. The game was tied 3-3 at the end of 3Q's before A&M got a 28-yd FG with 14:33 left. NU tied it at 6 with a 29 yd FG with 8:31 left then A&M got a critical 3&11 roughing the passer penalty on the ensuing drive that led to a 19-yd FG with 3:02 left and the lead and NU was unable to reach A&M territory on their final drive.

OKLAHOMA - See Oklahoma

Nebraska 2010 Worst Case 9-5 Close Wins (1)

- NU was playing with legitimate revenge for the previous year's loss and also without QB Martinez. ISU actually came within inches of victory as they scored a TD at the end of the game then opted a fake FG for 2. NU was actually down to their 3rd string QB Lee. With the game tied a 24, ISU had missed a 55 yd FG with 3:23 left and the game went to OT. The pass was floated just behind the receiver. Had it been thrown ahead of him, it would have been 2 pts and a win.

Oklahoma 2010 Best Case 12-2 Close Losses (0)

The Sooners losses were by 9 and 14 pts so they did indeed achieve a best case scenario at 12-2

Oklahoma 2010 Worst Case 7-7 Close Wins (5)

UTAH ST - OU had a pattern all season of jumping out to a big lead and letting their opponents stay in the game. The Sooners led this one 21-0 with 6:21 left in the half. They allowed a FG and then allowed USt to drive in the final minute of the 1H for a TD 21-10. Leading 31-24, OU was int'd at the USt9 but USt did get to the OU31 down 7 and missed a 50 yd FG with 8:18 left. USt was int'd at their own 41 with 4:12 left and OU took a knee at the USt6.

AIR FORCE - This was another game OU got out to a big lead and let their opponent back in it. OU led 27-10 after 3Q's. AF got a pair of TD's in the 4Q, the later with 3:39 left. AF had all 3 time-outs left so opted to kick deep after their TD. OU got 2 FD's and took a knee.

CINCINNATI - This was another game OU let their opponent back in it after a big lead. OU led this one 31-22 when they went to the prevent defense and UC drove 80/8pl for a TD with :58 left but OU rec'd the onside kick.

OKLAHOMA ST - OSU had an 89 yd KR TD, 52 yd IR TD and OU had a 28-19 FD edge and 588-379 yd edge. OU led 40-31 with 3:03 left when OSU got an 89 yd KR TD. OU led 47-38 and OSU got 2 FD's and nailed a 34 yd FG with :36 left but OU rec'd the onside kick.

NEBRASKA - OU had a commanding 454-293 yd edge and 19-13 FD edge but trailed 17-0 2Q. The Sooners roared back to tie it at 17 with 1:37 left 2Q before NU added a 42-yd FG with :06 left to take a 20-17 HT lead. The game was tied at 20 at the end of the 3Q and OU added a 27-yd FG with 8:28 left. NU punted twice on their next 2 poss then were SOD on their final poss at their own47 with 1:03 left.

Oklahoma St 2010 Best Case 12-1 Close Losses (1)

- See Oklahoma

Oklahoma St 2010 Worst Case 9-4 Close Wins (2)

TROY - At the half OSU had a 279-153yd edge but Troy led 27-20 after the 2 teams scored 41 pts in the 2Q. Troy fumbled 3 times in OSU territory incl inside the OSU7. Troy closed the gap 41-38 with 4:00 left. OSU QB Weeden fumbled while trying to take a knee w/:54 left but Troy fumbled on the next play.

TEXAS A&M - Jared Johnson was responsible for 5 TO's for A&M. A&M still dominated the 1H and led 21-7 with a commanding 222-68 yd edge. Johnson's TO's kept OSU in the game. A&M got it with 1:16 left and the game tied 35-35. They got out to the 46 yd line but on 2&7 Johnson was int'd and ret'd 28 yards and OSU got 1 FD and nailed a 40 yd FG for the win.

Texas 2010 Best Case 7-5 Close Losses (2)

IOWA ST - This one was a stunner. ISU got their first ever win over Texas and the Governor called the win "historic". Turnovers fueled it as UT had a 440-335 yd edge. ISU led 14-3 at the half and 28-6 in the 4Q. UT got a TD with 11:16 left and another with 3:15 left to pull within 7. ISU punted with 1:02 left but UT was SOD on 4&15 at its own 5 with :22 left.

TEXAS A&M - See Texas A&M

Texas 2010 Worst Case 4-8 Close Wins (1)

NEBRASKA - See Nebraska

Texas A&M 2010 Best Case 11-2 Close Losses (2)

OKLAHOMA ST - See Oklahoma St

ARKANSAS - AU got a 39 yd FG with 5:04 left 3Q to go up by 7. A&M got 3 FD's to the AU37 but after a 4&17, punted. A&M punted again on 4&13 with 3:06 left. A&M got it back at their 20 with 1:18 left. They converted on 3&10 and 4&13 to the AU39 but their Hail Mary pass was int'd.

Texas A&M 2010 Worst Case 6-7 Close Wins (3)

FIU - A&M had 5 TO's and trailed 20-6 3Q. A&M went 87/8 & 59/5pl to tie it up with 7:07 left. A&M went 72/3pl highlighted by a 31 yd pass & Gray's 40yd TD run (27-20). FIU took over with 4:29 left and got down to the 7 but were SOD after a 60/11pl drive.

NEBRASKA - See Texas A&M

TEXAS - Texas had a 19-15 FD edge and probably the key play of the game happened when UT was up 7-0 in the 2Q and at the A&M10. They fumbled and 2 plays later A&M got an 84 yd TD run to get back in it at 7-7. UT fumbled at their own 22 setting up an A&M TD. UT had a 1st & gl at the 9 but settled for a FG with 9:46 left and then went 68/8pl. They had a FD at the 17 when on 3&5 a pass was tipped and int'd at the 8. A&M on 3&4 appeared tackled in the backfield but Gray got away for a FD and A&M did not punt until the final play of the game.

Texas Tech 2010 Best Case 8-5 Close Losses (0)

Texas Tech's 5 losses came by 10, 14, 17, 18 and 38 so they did indeed achieve a best case scenario.

Texas Tech 2010 Worst Case 4-9 Close Wins (4)

BAYLOR - See Baylor

COLORADO - See Colorado

MISSOURI - See Missouri

NORTHWESTERN - TT actually controlled this game throughout with 34-23 FD and 552-375 yd edges. They led 38-17 late 3Q before the Wildcats mounted a comeback. After the NW cut it to 38-31 with 10:33 left, TT went 69/10 pl to extend it back to 14. NW got a TD with 5:37 left but didnt get it back until :25 left and were int'd on the final play.