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This is the 5th year in a row for the London game. TB has a big edge in planning as while they lost to NE 35-7 in Morris’ rookie season in 2009. It was their 3rd road game in 4 Wks and Morris entered into the game with a defeatist attitude after NE had blown out TEN 59-0 prior. Both teams are beat up injury wise with TB expected to be without RB Blount (MCL) and DT McCoy (high ankle sprain) here. TB comes in off a tight physical game vs NO where they converted 4 TO’s into 10 pts. While they gave up 453 yds they held NO to 2 FG’s and an int on 4 drives inside their 20. CHI is off B2B primetime games and their level of interest is uncertain. Cutler has been sacked 70 times since Martz took over and has been behind 4 diff OL’s in 5 weeks prior to LW. The key to this game will be if TB can control Forte who is playing at an MVP level with 785 total yds (7.0) or 49% of the Bears total offense prior to MIN. I’ll call for CHI by a FG.

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Both teams are dramatically different from 2009 when CAR beat WAS 20-17. It’s strength vs strength here with CAR’s getting it done with their #5 offense (#16 defense -5 TO’s) while WAS is doing it with their #6 defense (#17 offense -3 TO’s). WAS has switched to Beck at QB after Grossman imploded with 4 ints giving PHI 10 pts. They also lost their starting LG and LT and they won't be 100%. The Redskins edge lies in their RB by committee approach generating the #12 rush attack (110 ypg 4.0) vs CAR’s #31 rush defense allowing 140 ypg (4.8). This is due to 2 rookie DT’s starting, a LB unit that has lost 2 of 3 starters and the Panthers are 24th with 9 sks earned so far. Newton’s athleticism, arm strength (8.1 ypa) and unpredictably have contributed to Steve Smith having a career level season (32 rec, 21.1). I’ll call for the home team by a FG as I want to see how Haslett and his 3-4 defense (ARZ/GB lacked game film) with plenty of game tape to break devise a plan for Newton.

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This is the 3rd meeting in 4 years but the 1st with SD travelling East. SD didn’t take a rookie HC/QB combo in its 2nd straight road game seriously in the last meeting losing 17-14 in the 2009 Div round. Afterwards former SD HC Marty Schottenheimer admitted that he helped OC Brian Schottenheimer scout the Chargers. This is SD’s 1st road game off a bye week in the Turner era and while 4-1 TY their wins have been vs foes a combined 4-15. Rivers has 6-7 ratio right now largely due to the fact his top 3 targets Jackson (23 rec 17.7), Floyd (12 rec 21.5) and Gates (8 rec 9.3) have all been slowed by injuries. All are expected to start here and SD has nice stat edges with the #6 and #4 units (-5 TO’s) vs the Jets #29 and #13 units (+ 1 TO’s). The Jets #5 pass defense is solid (7.2 ypa 3-7 ratio) but teams are having success rushing on the Jets giving up 135 ypg (4.2). I’ll go with a road team that has earned 375+ yds in each game TY vs a home team on a short week that has only reached that level once.

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SEA will be playing w/out QB Jackson here. Whitehurst was decent with 149 yds (58%) for a TD but despite winning the season finale vs STL to earn a playoff spot he didn’t get to compete for the #1 QB job in 2011. CLE is in a West Coast sandwich after OAK with SF on deck. This will be the 1st time TY that SEA expects to have its fully healthy set of receivers with Rice (shoulder) and Williams (concussion) missing time as defenses have unloaded on the their run game holding them to 83 ypg (3.8) rushing. They have been outgained 365-269 on the road TY and their win vs the Giants came off 5 TO’s including a 94 yd Int return at the end. For a team built for a power run game the Browns have put the offense on McCoy who has had to put the ball up 39 times in 4 of 5 games TY (GB’s Rodgers has only done it once). Hillis (hamstring) was KO’d of LW’s game and Hardesty only had 35 yds (3.2) LW. I’ll call for CLE in a lower scoring game here as the Browns should get CB Haden back with a crowd edge.

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The Titans certainly have the situational edge here off a bye while the Texans travel for a second straight after losing to the Ravens getting outgained 402-293. The early bye week may be a negative this season as teams try to make adjustments in their offenses and LW WAS, STL, DAL and CLE were coming off byes and were outscored in the 1H by a combined 71-23 while BAL was the only to have a HT lead (10-7). Hasselbeck has been the best FA pickup so far TY avg 283 ypg (65%) with a 9-4 ratio despite losing Britt (17 rec 17.0) and RB Johnson (50 ypg 3.0) stuck in neutral but now he faces the leagues #10 D. On the flip side LY HOU QB Schaub on the road had a higher comp% compared to at home (64.2-62.9) as well as a better ratio (14-5 to 10-7) and does so again TY (61.0-57.3, 6-1 to 4-4).

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This will be a homecoming game for Tebow as MIA honors the 2008 Florida national championship team. DEN is in full rebuild mode though and traded Lloyd to STL. Tebow’s mechanics and inexperience (730 total yds 48% 5-3 in 3.5 games) are his big issues right now but his intangibles and athleticism gave the Chargers fits before the bye. While DEN has the #26 and #24 units (-6 TO’s) they are expected to be as closer to 100% health than when they opened the season especially on defense. DEN’s pass rush is also much better than LY’s with 12 sks so far (17th) vs 23 (32nd) for all of LY. Despite being lead by a OL coach by trade MIA has given up 14 sks so far TY (23rd 1 every 10 att’s). MIA’s #31 pass defense has been awful TY allowing 316 ypg (63%) with a 9-2 ratio with just 6 sacks (30th, 1 every 24.5 att’s). Fox is a conservative coach by nature but I’ll go with DEN and a QB giving the offense a new wrinkle vs a Dolphins team that does not play well at home and on a short week.

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The Falcons beat DET 34-21 in Matt Ryan’s 1st career start in 2008. DET is in a prime situation in their 3rd straight home game with only DEN on deck vs ATL off a pair of tough losses at home vs GB on SNF and chasing Newton around LW. DET has the #13 and #11 units (+9 TO’s) vs ATL’s #20 and #22 units (+2 TO’s). A good pass rush improves coverage and the Lions are 12th in sacks (14 1 every 16 att’s) and are allowing just 206 ypg (65%) with a 7-8 ratio with a very impressive 5.9 ypa. SF turned the Lions aggressive DL play against them LW letting them over penetrate getting big plays in key spots as Gore gashed them for a 47 and 55 yd run. ATL stuck with the ground game (Turner 139 yds 5.1) vs CAR to wear down the young DL and keep Newton off the field. ATL forced 3 ints but only got 1 TD out of it. The defense has struggled to get off the field all year allowing 49% on 3rd Dns and have struggled with 2H adjustments getting outscored 68-13 in the 3Q. The Lions will be extremely angry here after being out muscled at home by the 49ers and the Falcons have been a shell of the 2010 version and will now face a very hostile road venue here.

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OAK is 5-2 vs the Chiefs taking both meetings LY. OAK snapped a 7 game home losing streak to KC with a 23-20 win in OT overcoming 13 penalties and 3 TO’s. Locked into a Wildcard spot, KC had little interest in the season finale which OAK won 31-14. OAK became the 1st team since the merger to go unbeaten vs their division but miss the playoffs. They are a stout 8-0 vs a DIV foe with a 32-18 avg score. OAK is off a pair of emotional games honoring Al Davis and lost QB Campbell (brkn collarbone) indefinitely. Boller (100 yds 57% LW) has experience in Jackson’s system but has very questionable pocket presence therfore the Raiders picked up Palmer this week and he will be a game-time decision if he starts. KC looks to have adjusted to injuries at the start of the season with 350 and 436 yds the L2 games albeit vs MIN and IND. In his L3 games Cassel has avg’d 220 ypg but with 68% completion and a 7-1 ratio. Haley has already said the team is going to continue to evolve the pass attack as Bowe (23 rec 18.3) McCluster (18 rec 3.4) and Breaston (14 rec 16.4) round into form and Baldwin (hand) finally gets involved. OAK may be too emotionally drained to pull out another win.

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ARZ has tons of coaching links to the Steelers as Whisenhunt used to be their OC, Grimm the OL coach and DC Horton came over TY after being their DB coach. ARZ is 1-1 SU vs the Steelers under Whisenhunt winning 21-14 but losing 27-23 in SB 43. PIT dominated the 1H vs JAX LW with a 315-68 yd edge but only had a 17-3 lead settling for 2 TD’s 1 FG and missed a FG inside the JAX 30. They were caught off guard by a spirited JAX 2H and punted on their final 5 drives earning just 3 FD and 55 yds. SS Polamalu sat out the 2H with concussion symptoms and PIT is likely to field their 7th different OL combo here. Minus the BAL game, Roethlisberger has avg’d 259 ypg (64%) with a 8-3 ratio and Mendenhall’s 146 yds (6.3) rushing LW is a good sign. ARZ has had problems in pass protection TY giving up 16 sacks (26th, 1 every 11 att’s) and despite the injuries PIT is 8th with 15 sks (1 every 13 att’s). ARZ also lost SS Rhodes (brkn foot) and are starting a rookie and 2nd year CB here. While Kolb isn’t fully settled into the offense I’ll call for the road team that is entrenched on both sides of the ball schematically in a higher scoring game.

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This is the biggest statistical mismatch of the week with DAL #7 and #5 units (-2 TO’s) vs the Rams #25 and #28 units (-1 TO’s). STL is 0-5 for the 2nd time in 3 years due to injuries at CB/WR and have only scored 4 offensive TD’s TY. They weren’t as bad as their game vs GB looked as they outgained the Packers 202-128 in the 2H. On 4 drives inside the Packers 30 they came away with just 3 points with a missed FG, int’d 7 yds in the EZ and were SOD on the GB 15. DAL did a great job of limiting the Patriots offense to just 371 yds LW and have won the yardage battle in all 5 games TY. DAL’s defense has already logged 16 sacks TY (6th 1 every 12 att’s) and gets a Rams OL that has given up 22 sks so far (32nd 1 every 9.1 att’s). After finishing 7th with 43 sacks LY the Rams only have 9 (32nd 1 every 19) so far TY. They are getting manhandled at the POA and are allowing 163 ypg (4.9) rushing. DAL’s defense played very well LW as they kept Brady off balance for most of the game (2 ints, 11 sks/QBH) and now they get a big step down here. The only question here is if the Cowboys can play a consistent game for an entire 60 minutes.

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GB won 28-24 win on SNF in the 1st meeting LY. Rodgers threw 2 ints deep in MIN territory in the 1H but the Vikings failed to do anything with them. MIN threw 3 Ints in the 2H which GB turned into 14 pts and escaped with the win. In the 2nd meeting GB throttled MIN 31-3 as Rodgers logged 301 yds (71%) with 4 TD’s with 9 of the Vikings 11 drives under 40 yds. GB has major edges statistically with the #4 and #23 units (+8 TO’s) vs the Vikings #23 and #15 units (+3 TO’s). Rodgers is the 1st QB since the merger with 6 straight games with a QBR over 110 and the last time they were the lone unbeaten team this deep in the year was 1965. He has logged 4 games with a 10+ ypa TY while McNabb only has 1 game over 8 ypa. MIN is off LW’s SNF game vs CHI and will be trying to get their #2 run game (160 ypg 5.4) on track so their #6 pass rush (16 sks 1 every 8.3 att’s) be rested. I’ll sgo with the road team big here with a clear cut edge at QB.