Daily Blog •August 8, 2012

The other day I was asked an intriguing question on facebook about my Homefield Edges in college football and how they would compare to my NFL homefield edges. This got me thinking about how much of an edge an NFL team has compared to that of a college team. My guess prior to doing the research would be that NFL teams win far less frequently at home than college teams and there is less of a difference between home/away at the Pro level. First, the talent level in the NFL is more evenly distributed than college and also you have to factor in that many college teams load up on cupcakes at home. I also believe that professional athletes are used to getting on a plane, are used to playing in hostile environments while some college freshman and sophomores are experiencing cross-country trips for the first time in their lives.

I went back to take a look at the last 10 years in the NFL and first here are the overall records of NFL teams.

NFL Overall Records 2002-2011

Rk
 Team W L T %
1 New England 123 37 0 76.88%
2 Indianapolis 111 49 0 69.38%
3 Pittsburgh 105 54 1 66.04%
4 Philadelphia 99 60 1 62.26%
5 Green Bay 99 61 0 61.88%
6 San Diego 96 64 0 60.00%
7 Baltimore 94 66 0 58.75%
8 New Orleans 90 70 0 56.25%
9 NY Giants 88 72 0 55.00%
10 Atlanta 87 72 1 54.72%
11 Tennessee 86 74 0 53.75%
11 Denver 86 74 0 53.75%
11 Dallas 86 74 0 53.75%
14 Chicago 82 78 0 51.25%
15 Seattle 81 79 0 50.63%
16 NY Jets 80 80 0 50.00%
17 Carolina 79 81 0 49.38%
18 Minnesota 77 83 0 48.13%
19 Jacksonville 76 84 0 47.50%
20 Kansas City 74 86 0 46.25%
20 Tampa Bay 74 86 0 46.25%
22 Cincinnati 71 88 1 44.65%
23 Miami 70 90 0 43.75%
24 San Francisco 69 91 0 43.13%
25 Buffalo 65 95 0 40.63%
25 Houston 65 95 0 40.63%
25 Washington 65 95 0 40.63%
25 Arizona 65 95 0 40.63%
29 Cleveland 56 104 0 35.00%
29 Oakland 56 104 0 35.00%
29 St Louis 56 104 0 35.00%
32 Detroit 47 113 0 29.38%

To no real surprise the Patriots come out on top with an overall record of 123-37 for an outstanding 76.9% with the lowly Lions a dismal 47-113 which was 53.5% lower that the Patriots. I do think this upcoming decade will see some changes as the Lions will probably move up this list while Indianapolis in the next couple of years may move down.

Next, let’s take a look at the best home records in the past 10 years. My guess before doing the data would be that NFL teams win 55% of their home games.

NFL Home Records 2002-2011

Rk
 Team W L T %
1 New England 67 13 0 83.75%
2 Baltimore 61 19 0 76.25%
3 Indianapolis 59 21 0 73.75%
4 Pittsburgh 58 21 1 73.42%
5 Green Bay 55 25 0 68.75%
5 San Diego 55 25 0 68.75%
7 Seattle 51 29 0 63.75%
8 Philadelphia 50 30 0 62.50%
8 Atlanta 50 30 0 62.50%
10 Chicago 49 31 0 61.25%
11 Denver 48 32 0 60.00%
11 Dallas 48 32 0 60.00%
11 Minnesota 48 32 0 60.00%
14 Tennessee 47 33 0 58.75%
15 NY Jets 46 34 0 57.50%
15 Jacksonville 46 34 0 57.50%
17 New Orleans 44 34 0 56.41%
18 Kansas City 45 35 0 56.25%
19 Arizona 44 36 0 55.00%
20 San Francisco 43 36 0 54.43%
21 Tampa Bay 42 37 0 53.16%
22 NY Giants 43 38 0 53.09%
23 Carolina 42 38 0 52.50%
24 Cincinnati 41 38 1 51.90%
25 Buffalo 39 40 0 49.37%
26 Houston 39 41 0 48.75%
27 Miami 38 41 0 48.10%
28 Washington 36 44 0 45.00%
29 St Louis 35 45 0 43.75%
30 Detroit 32 48 0 40.00%
31 Cleveland 31 49 0 38.75%
31 Oakland 31 49 0 38.75%
Total 1463 1090 2 57.31%

The Patriots again come out on top but this time Cleveland/Oakland are at the very bottom with the Lions having one more home win. Baltimore who was #7 in overall win %, was actually #2 in home win % and Seattle who was #15 in overall win % moves up to #7 here while the Philadelphia Eagles and NY Giants are lower than their overall win % rankings. The overall total came to 57.3% which is a bit higher than what I expected.

Now, let’s take a look at the best away records in the past 10 years.

NFL Away Records 2002-2011

Rk Team W L T %
1 New England 56 24 0 70.00%
2 Indianapolis 52 28 0 65.00%
3 Philadelphia 49 30 1 62.03%
4 Pittsburgh 47 33 0 58.75%
5 NY Giants 45 34 0 56.96%
6 New Orleans 46 36 0 56.10%
7 Green Bay 44 36 0 55.00%
8 San Diego 41 39 0 51.25%
9 Tennessee 39 41 0 48.75%
10 Denver 38 42 0 47.50%
10 Dallas 38 42 0 47.50%
12 Atlanta 37 42 1 46.84%
13 Carolina 37 43 0 46.25%
14 NY Jets 34 46 0 42.50%
15 Baltimore 33 47 0 41.25%
15 Chicago 33 47 0 41.25%
17 Tampa Bay 32 49 0 39.51%
17 Miami 32 49 0 39.51%
19 Seattle 30 50 0 37.50%
19 Jacksonville 30 50 0 37.50%
19 Cincinnati 30 50 0 37.50%
22 Minnesota 29 51 0 36.25%
22 Kansas City 29 51 0 36.25%
22 Washington 29 51 0 36.25%
25 Houston 26 54 0 32.50%
26 San Francisco 26 55 0 32.10%
26 Buffalo 26 55 0 32.10%
28 Cleveland 25 55 0 31.25%
28 Oakland 25 55 0 31.25%
30 Arizona 21 59 0 26.25%
30 St Louis 21 59 0 26.25%
32 Detroit 15 65 0 18.75%
Total 1095 1468 2 42.72%

Again the Pats come out on top with the Lions clearly at the bottom. It is here where you see perennial playoff teams Philadelphia, NY Giants and New Orleans all perform at high levels.  

Finally let’s look at which teams have the greatest disparity between their home and away record. My original guess before doing the data was that Seattle would come out on top as they are such a better home team than road team.

Here are the results.

NFL Home/Away Differences 2002-2011

Home
Away
Diff
Rk
Team
W
L
T
%
W
L
T
%
Diff
Diff
1
 Baltimore
61
19
0
76.25%
33
47
0
41.25%
28
35.00%
2
 Arizona
44
36
0
55.00%
21
59
0
26.25%
23
28.75%
3
 Seattle
51
29
0
63.75%
30
50
0
37.50%
21
26.25%
4
 Minnesota
48
32
0
60.00%
29
51
0
36.25%
19
23.75%
5
 San Francisco
43
36
0
54.43%
26
55
0
32.10%
17
22.33%
6
 Detroit
32
48
0
40.00%
15
65
0
18.75%
17
21.25%
7
 Chicago
49
31
0
61.25%
33
47
0
41.25%
16
20.00%
8
 Kansas City
45
35
0
56.25%
29
51
0
36.25%
16
20.00%
9
 Jacksonville
46
34
0
57.50%
30
50
0
37.50%
16
20.00%
10
 San Diego
55
25
0
68.75%
41
39
0
51.25%
14
17.50%
11
 St Louis
35
45
0
43.75%
21
59
0
26.25%
14
17.50%
12
 Buffalo
39
40
0
49.37%
26
55
0
32.10%
13
17.27%
13
 Houston
39
41
0
48.75%
26
54
0
32.50%
13
16.25%
14
 Atlanta
50
30
0
62.50%
37
42
1
46.84%
13
15.66%
15
 NY Jets
46
34
0
57.50%
34
46
0
42.50%
12
15.00%
16
 Pittsburgh
58
21
1
73.42%
47
33
0
58.75%
11
14.67%
17
 Cincinnati
41
38
1
51.90%
30
50
0
37.50%
11
14.40%
18
 New England
67
13
0
83.75%
56
24
0
70.00%
11
13.75%
19
 Green Bay
55
25
0
68.75%
44
36
0
55.00%
11
13.75%
20
 Tampa Bay
42
37
0
53.16%
32
49
0
39.51%
10
13.66%
21
 Denver
48
32
0
60.00%
38
42
0
47.50%
10
12.50%
21
 Dallas
48
32
0
60.00%
38
42
0
47.50%
10
12.50%
23
 Tennessee
47
33
0
58.75%
39
41
0
48.75%
8
10.00%
24
 Indianapolis
59
21
0
73.75%
52
28
0
65.00%
7
8.75%
24
 Washington
36
44
0
45.00%
29
51
0
36.25%
7
8.75%
26
 Miami
38
41
0
48.10%
32
49
0
39.51%
6
8.60%
27
 Cleveland
31
49
0
38.75%
25
55
0
31.25%
6
7.50%
27
 Oakland
31
49
0
38.75%
25
55
0
31.25%
6
7.50%
29
 Carolina
42
38
0
52.50%
37
43
0
46.25%
5
6.25%
30
 Philadelphia
50
30
0
62.50%
49
30
1
62.03%
1
0.47%
31
 New Orleans
44
34
0
56.41%
46
36
0
56.10%
-2
0.31%
32
 NY Giants
43
38
0
53.09%
45
34
0
56.96%
-2
-3.88%
Total
1463
1090
2
57.31%
1095
1468
2
42.72%
368
14.58%

I was kind of surprised that the Baltimore Ravens clearly came out on top of this list as they have won 28 more games at home than away in the past decade (+28). Seattle was actually #3 at +21. Equally as surprising at the bottom at least to me was that the New Orleans Saints who have such a great homefield edge at the Superdome have two more wins on the road than they do at home (played more road games because of Katrina). Also the NY Giants are the only team in the NFL that has a better road win % than home win % in the last decade while the Eagles are just plus one at homw. On average teams have won about 11.5 more games at home in the past 10 years than what they have on the road which naturally equals to about a little over one game a season.

Tomorrow’s blog will take a look at the College Home/Away Records in the past 10 years and then I can do a comparison between NFL and College on homefield edges. 

Only 22 Days Until the First College Football Game!