Daily Blog •July 17, 2012

With the recent announcement of an official 4-team seeded playoff that will begin in 2014 and run for 12 years, I thought it would be a great day to take a step back in time and analyze which would have been the best system (BCS, 4-Team, 8-Team or 16-Team playoff) in the BCS Era (1998-2011).

In the first two years of the BCS, I thought that the best team in the country for that year (Ohio St ’98 and Nebraska ’99) did not get a chance to play in the national title game. This prompted me to come up with a solution to include all deserving teams of a chance at taking home the title. My proposed system was to include four teams and seed them #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3. The semi-finals would include the current bowls with those games being played on January 1st and the national championship game would be played at a later date.

Naturally the main reason I chose just four teams and not eight or 16 was to preserve what I think without question is the best regular season in all of sport! You cannot give me a single plausible argument as to why teams with two or more losses should be given a chance to play for a national title. I think you will find in most years there are three teams that are fighting for those top two spots and as long as you include those teams, I don’t think it really matters as to who is the #4 or #5 team as long as the true deserving teams are in the field.

Below is the complete chart of every year from 1998-2011 with a breakdown of how the teams were ranked heading into the bowl games and what each playoff format would have looked like. I used the AP Poll rankings and not the final BCS Rankings because we are heading into a direction where a selection committee will pick the teams and will be much more subjective (like the AP Poll) than a computer ranking. Make sure you are checking out my May 30 Blog which includes what I wrote in this year’s magazine about a Determining a National Championship and also my June 27 Blog which included my original 4-Team playoff argument from 2000.

Which BCS/Playoff System Would Have
Worked Best in the BCS Era (1998-2011)

*All Rankings Used were Final Regular Season AP Poll

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Key
Best System
Good System
Worst System
Yr
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
1998
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#2 Florida St (11-1)
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#4 Kansas St (11-1)
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#8 Texas A&M (11-2)
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#16 Air Force (11-1)
#2 Florida St (11-1) vs
#3 Ohio St (10-1)
#2 Florida St (11-1) vs
#7 Florida (9-2)
#2 Florida St (11-1) vs
#15 Michigan (9-3)
FSU was playing with a backup QB
#3 Ohio St (10-1) vs
#6 UCLA (10-1)

#3 Ohio St (10-1) vs
#14 Nebraska (9-3)

Ohio St was arguably best tm in country
#4 Kansas St (11-1) vs
#5 Arizona (11-1)
#4 Kansas St (11-1) vs
#13 Virginia (9-2)
at end of ssn
#5 Arizona (11-1) vs
#12 Georgia Tech (9-2)
This system would have gotten UCLA/Zona in
#6 UCLA (10-1) vs
#11 Arkansas (9-2)
but both played in a then weak Pac 10
#7 Florida (9-2) vs
#10 Tulane (11-0)
#8 Texas A&M (11-2) vs
#9 Wisconsin (10-1)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
1999
#1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#2 Virginia Tech (11-0)
#1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#4 Wisconsin (9-2)
#1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#8 Michigan (9-2)
#1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#16 Southern Miss (8-3)
#2 Virginia Tech (11-0) vs
#3 Nebraska (11-1)
#2 Virginia Tech vs
#7 Kansas St (10-1)
#2 Virginia Tech (11-0) vs #15 Miss St (9-2)
Only Top 2 needed to be in
#3 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#6 Tennessee (9-2)
#3 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#14 Texas (9-4)
Nebraska was arguably best tm in country
#4 Wisconsin (9-2) vs
#5 Alabama (10-2)
#4 Wisconsin (9-2) vs
#13 Penn St (9-3)
at end of ssn
#5 Alabama (10-2) vs
#12 Minnesota (8-3)
#5 Bama had 2 losses
With exception of K-St who lost
#6 Tennessee vs
#11 Marshall (12-0)
to Neb by 4 TD's

#7 Kansas St (10-1) vs
#10 Florida (9-3)

#4-8 all had 2 losses
#8 Michigan (9-2) vs
#9 Michigan St (9-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2000
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#3 Florida St (11-1)
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#4 Washington (10-1)
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#8 Oregon (9-2)
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#16 Clemson (9-2)
#2 Miami, Fl (10-1) vs
#3 Florida St (11-1)
#2 Miami, Fl (10-1) vs
#7 Florida (10-2)
#2 Miami, Fl (10-1) vs
#15 Georgia Tech (9-2)
#3 Florida St (11-1) vs
#6 Virginia Tech (10-1)
#3 Florida St (11-1) vs
#14 Purdue (8-3)
#5 Oregon St lost to
#4 Washington in reg ssn
#4 Washington (10-1) vs #5 Oregon St (10-1)
#4 Washington (10-1) vs #13 TCU (10-1)
#6 Virginia Tech lost to
#2 Miami, Fl in reg ssn
#5 Oregon St (10-1) vs
#12 Texas (9-2)
OSU/VT would have been included
#6 Virginia Tech (10-1) vs Kansas St (10-3)
#7 Florida (10-2) vs
#10 Notre Dame (9-2)
#8 Oregon (9-2) vs
#9 Nebraska (9-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2001
#1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#4 Nebraska (11-1)
#1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#4 Nebraska (11-1)
#1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#8 Tennessee (10-2)
#1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#16 Georgia (8-3)
#2 Oregon (10-1) vs
#3 Colorado (10-2)
#2 Oregon (10-1) vs
#7 Illinois (10-1)
#2 Oregon (10-1) vs
#15 Virginia Tech (8-3)
#3 Colorado (10-2) vs
#6 Maryland (10-1)
#3 Colorado (10-2) vs
#14 South Carolina (8-3)
These matchups occurred in the bowls and would
#4 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#5 Florida (9-2)
#4 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#13 Washington St (9-2)
have given us a UM/Oreg
National Champ Gm
#5 Florida (9-2) vs
#12 LSU (9-3)
#6 Maryland (10-1) vs
#11 Stanford (9-2)
#5 Florida had 2 losses &
lost to UT at home in
#7 Illinois (10-1) vs
#10 Oklahoma (10-2)
reg ssn finale
#8 Tennessee (10-2) vs
#9 Texas (10-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2002
#1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#2 Ohio St (13-0)
#1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#4 Georgia (12-1)
#1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#8 Oklahoma (11-2)
#1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#16 Florida St (9-4)
#2 Ohio St (13-0) vs
#3 Iowa (11-1)
#2 Ohio St (13-0) vs
#7 Washington St (10-2)
#2 Ohio St (13-0) vs
#15 West Virginia (9-3)
Only Top 2 Needed to be in
#5 USC and #6 Kansas St both had two losses
#3 Iowa (11-1) vs
#6 Kansas St (10-2)
#3 Iowa (11-1) vs
#14 Colorado (9-4)
BCS got it right as in old system OSU
UGA was SEC Champ and
#4 Georgia (12-1) vs
#5 USC (10-2)
#4 Georgia (12-1) vs
#13 Alabama (10-3)
would have played WSU in Rose Bowl
OSU/Iowa didn't play each other in reg ssn.
#5 USC (10-2) vs
#12 Michigan (9-3)
While USC did crush Iowa in Orange Bowl

#6 Kansas St (10-2) vs
#11 Notre Dame (10-2)

Trojans had 2 losses already same as
#7 Washington St (10-2) vs #10 Penn St (9-3)
#5-8 while #1-4 had 1 loss or less.
#8 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#9 Texas (10-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2003
#2 LSU (12-1) vs
#3 Oklahoma (12-1)
#1 USC (11-1) vs
#4 Michigan (10-2)
#1 USC (11-1) vs
#8 Kansas St (11-3)
#1 USC 11-1) vs
#16 Missississippi (9-3)
#2 LSU (12-1) vs
#3 Oklahoma (12-1)
#2 LSU (12-1) vs
#7 Ohio St (10-2)
#2 LSU (12-1) vs
#15 Washington St (9-3)
These matchups occurred in the bowls and would
#3 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#6 Tennessee (10-2)
#3 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#14 Miami, Oh (11-1)
have given us a USC/LSU
#4 Michigan (10-2) vs
#5 Texas (10-2)
#4 Michigan (10-2) vs
#13 Iowa (9-3)
National Champ Gm.
#5 Texas (10-2) vs
#12 Purdue (9-3)
#5 TX had 2 losses and lost to OU 65-13 in the reg ssn.
Tms 5-8 all had 2 or more losses
#6 Tennessee (10-2) vs
#11 Georgia (10-3)
Only Top 3 Needed to be in
#7 Ohio St (10-2) vs
#10 Miami, Fl (10-2)
#8 Kansas St (11-3) vs
#9 Florida St (10-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2004
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#2 Oklahoma (12-0)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#4 California (10-1)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#8 Georgia (9-2)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#16 Wisconsin (9-2)
#2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#3 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#7 Louisville (10-1)
#2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#15 Tennessee (9-3)
USC/Oklahoma were #1-2 all yr
#3 Auburn (12-0) vs
#6 Texas (10-1)
#3 Auburn (12-0) vs
#14 Miami, Fl (8-3)
One could argue that AP #5 Utah would have
#4 California (10-1) vs
#5 Utah (11-0)
#4 California (10-1) vs
#13 Michigan (9-2)
probably been voted over Cal to avoid a rematch
#5 Utah (11-0) vs
#12 LSU (9-2)
in a 4-tm format
#6 Texas (10-1) vs
#11 Iowa (9-2)
Only Top 3 needed to be in
#7 Louisville (10-1) vs
#10 Boise St (11-0)
#8 Georgia (9-2) vs
#9 Virginia Tech (10-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2005
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#2 Texas (12-0)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#4 Ohio St (9-2)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#8 Georgia (10-2)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#16 Florida (8-3)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs
#3 Penn St (10-1)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs
#7 Auburn (9-2)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs
#15 Louisville (9-2)
Only Top 2 needed to be in
#3 Penn St (10-1) vs
#6 Oregon (10-1)
#3 Penn St (10-1) vs
#14 TCU (10-1)
The BCS worked out perfectly. The semi-final
#4 Ohio St (9-2) vs
#5 Notre Dame (9-2)
#4 Ohio St (9-2) vs
#13 Alabama (9-2)
gms would have risked an upset and we
#5 Notre Dame (9-2) vs
#12 Virginia Tech (10-2)
could not had this great gm
How could you make USC and Texas go thru
#6 Oregon (10-1) vs
#11 West Virginia (10-1)
thru TWO additional games just to get
#7 Auburn (9-2) vs
#10 LSU (10-2)
to the national title game?
#8 Georgia (10-2) vs
#9 Miami, Fl (9-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2006
#1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#2 Florida (12-1)
#1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#4 LSU (10-2)
#1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#8 USC (10-2)
#1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#16 Rutgers (10-2)
#2 Florida (12-1) vs
#3 Michigan (11-1)
#2 Florida (12-1) vs
#7 Oklahoma (11-2)
#2 Florida (12-1) vs
#15 Wake Forest (11-2)
#3 Michigan (11-1) vs
#6 Wisconsin (11-1)
#3 Michigan (11-1) vs
#14 Virginia Tech (10-2)
USC lost to UCLA in their final gm or the Trojans
#4 LSU (10-2) vs
#5 Louisville (11-1)
#4 LSU (10-2) vs
#13 West Virginia (10-2)
would have been #2.
#5 Louisville (11-1) vs
#12 Arkansas (10-3)
Only Top 3 needed to be in
#6 Wisconsin (11-1) vs
#11 Notre Dame (10-2)
#7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#10 Auburn (10-2)
#8 USC (10-2) vs
#9 Boise St (12-0)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2007
#1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#2 LSU (11-2)
#1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#4 Georgia (10-2)
#1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#8 Kansas (11-1)
#1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#16 Tennessee (9-4)
#2 LSU (11-2) vs
#3 Oklahoma (11-2)
#2 LSU (11-2) vs
#7 Missouri (11-2)
#2 LSU (11-2) vs
#15 Clemson (9-3)
#3 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#6 USC (10-2)
#3 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#14 Boston Coll (10-3)
This was a wacky year and no system could have
#4 Georgia (10-2) vs
#5 Virginia Tech (11-2)
#4 Georgia (10-2) vs
#13 Illinois (9-3)
produced a true national champ as all the teams
#5 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs #12 Arizona St (10-2)
lost key games at the end of the year.
This is not the type of year you want to base
#6 USC (10-2) vs
#11 West Virginia (10-2)
a national title format on.
#7 Missouri (11-2) vs
#10 Hawaii (12-0)
#8 Kansas (11-1) vs
#9 Florida (9-3)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2008
#1 Florida (12-1) vs
#2 Oklahoma (12-1)
#1 Florida (12-1) vs
#4 Alabama (12-1)
#1 Florida (12-1) vs
#8 Texas Tech (11-1)
#1 Florida (12-1) vs
#16 Georgia (9-3)
#2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#3 Texas (11-1)
#2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#7 Utah (12-0) 
#2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#15 Oregon (9-3)
#3 Texas (11-1) vs
#6 Penn St (11-1)
#3 Texas (11-1) vs
#14 Georgia Tech (9-3)
Both these matchups occurred in reg ssn
#4 Alabama (12-1) vs
#5 USC (11-1)
#4 Alabama (12-1) vs
#13 Oklahoma St (9-3)
at neutral sites and it could be argued #5 USC might
#5 USC (11-1) vs
#12 Cincinnatu (11-2)
have been voted higher in a 4-tm playoff format
This would have allowed Utah who beat
#6 Penn St (11-1) vs
#11 TCU (10-2)
Bama in Sugar Bowl a chance to play for title
#7 Utah (12-0) vs
#10 Ohio St (10-2)
#8 Texas Tech (11-1) vs
#9 Boise St (12-0)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2009
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#2 Texas (13-0)
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#4 Cincinnati (12-0)
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#8 Ohio St (10-2)
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#16 Oregon St (8-4)
#2 Texas (13-0) vs
#3 TCU (12-0)
#2 Texas (13-0) vs
#7 Oregon (10-2)
#2 Texas (13-0) vs
#15 BYU (10-2)
Bama/Texas Clear
Best 2 Tms
#3 TCU (12-0) vs
#6 Boise St (13-0)
#3 TCU (12-0) vs
#14 Miami, Fl (9-3)
Allowed for 2 more unbeatens to get in
#4 Cincinnati (12-0) vs
#5 Florida (12-1)
#4 Cincinnati (12-0) vs
#13 LSU (9-3)
#5 Florida (12-1) vs
#12 Virginia Tech (9-3)
#7-8 had no business playing for title
#6 Boise St (13-0) vs
#11 Penn St (10-2)
One could argue 6-tm playoff here
#7 Oregon (10-2) vs
#10 Iowa (10-2)
with Bama & TX w/byes
#8 Ohio St (10-2) vs
#9 Georgia Tech (11-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2010
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#2 Oregon (12-0)
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#4 Wisconsin (11-1)
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#8 Arkansas (10-2)
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#16 Oklahoma St (10-2)
#2 Oregon (12-0) vs
#3 TCU (12-0)
#2 Oregon (12-0) vs
#7 Michigan St (11-1)
#2 Oregon (12-0) vs
#15 Alabama (9-3)
#3 TCU (12-0) vs
#6 Ohio St (11-1)
#3 TCU (12-0) vs
#14 Missouri (10-2)
Only Top 3 Needed To Be In
#4 Wisconsin (11-1) vs
#5 Stanford (11-1)
#4 Wisconsin (11-1) vs
#13 Nevada (12-1)
#5 Stanford (11-1) vs
#12 Virginia Tech (11-2)
#6 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#11 LSU (10-2)
#7 Michigan St (11-1) vs #10 Boise St (11-1)
#8 Arkansas (10-2) vs
#9 Oklahoma (11-2)
BCS
4-Team Playoff
8-Team Playoff
16-Team Playoff
2011
#1 LSU (13-0) vs
#2 Alabama (11-1)
#1 LSU (13-0) vs
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#1 LSU (13-0) vs
#8 Boise St (11-1)
#1 LSU (13-0) vs
#16 TCU (10-2)
#2 Alabama (11-1) vs
#3 Oklahoma St (11-1)
#2 Alabama (11-1) vs
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#2 Alabama (11-1) vs
#15 Baylor (9-3)
#3 Oklahoma St (11-1) vs #6 Oregon (11-2)
#3 Oklahoma St (11-1) vs #14 Clemson (10-3)
Only Top 3-4 Needed To Be In
#4 Stanford (11-1) vs
#5 USC (10-2)

#4 Stanford (11-1) vs
#13 Michigan (10-2)

#5 USC (10-2) vs
#12 Michigan St (10-2)
#6 Oregon (11-2) vs
#11 Kansas St (10-2)
#7 Arkansas (10-2) vs
#10 S Carolina (10-2)
#8 Boise St (11-1) vs
#9 Wisconsin (11-2)
BCS
1998-2011
4-Team Playoff
1998-2011
8-Team Playoff
1998-2011
16-Team Playoff
1998-2011
Best System -
3 of 14 yrs 21%
Best System -
9 of 14 yrs 64%
Best System -
2 of 14 yrs 14%
Every Yr would have allowed a 3 loss tm a
Good System  -
7 of 14 yrs 50%
Good System  -
5 of 14 yrs 36%
Good System  -
2 of 14 yrs 14%
chance to play for the national title
Worst System -
4 of 14 yrs 29%
Worst System -
0 of 14 yrs 0%
Worst System -
10 of 14 yrs 71%
Worst System 14 of 14 yrs 100%


This chart shows clearly that the 4-Team Playoff System is the far superior system than what a 8-Team or 16-Team Playoff System would produce. In every one of the 14 years, the 4-Team playoff would have been at least a good system to determine a national champ. In my opinion the BCS got it right 3 years and was a good system for 7 additional years which made it in my opinion a better system than an 8-Team playoff. Many teams included in a 8-Team format would be undeserving of a chance to play for the national title and I think the above chart shows this in 10 of the 14 years (71%). A 16-Team playoff is fun to look at the different matchups but certainly 3-4 loss teams do not deserve to play for a national title and also it's unfair to unbeaten teams to have to win three extra games to play for the title like everyone else.

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