Daily Blog • November 11th
HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS:
BUFFALO AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 103
270
17
-7
#18
NEW ENGLAND 212
318
40
+136
#8
In their first meeting this year the Bills were destroyed 52-28 as they blew a 21-7 lead after scoring on their 1st drive in the 2H. From there NE rocked 22-7 FD and 330-145 yd edges with 6 straight td drives. The Pats #1 ranked offense is on a record setting pace avg 29 FD/gm and in comparison the league leaders the L3Y have avg’d 26, 23 & 23 FD/gm. The new balanced attack (54/46% pass/run) led by the league’s #4 rush off (150 ypg) has given Brady additional time with play action as evidenced by his 16-3 ratio. The Bills have been an equal opportunity defense allowing 337 ypg vs 4 teams whose avg off ranking is #28 while allowing 499 ypg vs the 4 best offenses they’ve faced. Give Belichick a throat to step on and he will. The Bills, in the meantime, after starting last year 5-2 and going 1-8 down the stretch could be in the same situation after starting 2-1 this year and currently on a 1-5 run into this game.
PHIL'S FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 37 BUFFALO 20
NY GIANTS AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY GIANTS 108
210
29
+14
#14
CINCINNATI 84
291
24
-5
#12

When you’re 3-5 you may think you can compete with most teams. CIN, however, has played the #29 schedule but the wins have come via teams with a combined 6-21 record. The Giants, meanwhile, are at 6-3 and off a loss vs PIT so they’ll be hungry and out to prove a point. Already this season the Giants have knocked off DAL, SF and CAR. The Bengals need to run the ball to keep pressure off Dalton and with them avg only 3.9 ypc their expectations for Green-Ellis (62 ypg, 3.5) to shoulder the load has fallen way short. CIN did play hard last week vs DEN but blew a 4Q lead giving them 4 straight losses. Different mind sets here as the Bengals have struggled down the stretch each of the L3Y going 7-19 while a hard nosed, old school disciplinarian is the perfect HC to ensure there’s no letdown prior to a bye.

PHIL'S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 27 CINCINNATI 17
SAN DIEGO AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SAN DIEGO 49
289
23
0
#11
TAMPA BAY 170
265
30
+9
#29

The Chargers saved Turner’s job with a 31-13 win over KC last week. The cross county trip this week is negated by being off a Thursday Nighter but they need to stay focused as they are one game behind DEN which is where they travel next week. The Chargers snapped a 3 game losing streak last week but what was just as important was that Rivers found his groove going 18-20 a week after his poor performance in the wind and rain (18-34 at CLE). The young Bucs squad has exceeded expectations under the “iron fist” of Greg Schiano and while a 4-4 record and B2B road upsets leads to excitement it also can make the players and fans over value them. Tampa’s offensive success comes when they can run the ball as they topped 100+ yds in their 4 wins and were kept under the century mark in their losses with SD’s #4 rush D allowing only 3.7 ypc. The Chargers won’t look past them and will start their normal second half season awakening.

PHIL'S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 28 TAMPA BAY 20
DENVER AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 84
235
23
-4
#9
CAROLINA 144
201
17
-5
#27

Despite this being the Broncos 2nd straight EST game this is an “A Game” for them. John Fox takes on his former team which made him suffer thru a 2-14 lame duck season in 2010 where ownership purged talent across the board. Both teams have played top 7 schedules this year so when you see that CAR is +2 ypg you wouldn’t expect a 2-6 record. You can call it a soph slump or not but Newton is throwing for only 57% with a 5-8 ratio compared to 60% with a 21-17 ratio last year while also fumbling 4 times this year compared to 3 in all of last year. That along with a rush attack that’s avg 111 ypg (4.3 ypc) the L4W is the reason their previous 4 losses were by a combined 12 pts. While there’s no question the Broncos #3 offense has benefited from this year’s comeback player of the year, Manning (300 ypg, 69%, 20-6) the D also has shown marked improvement (#20 last year vs #10 this year) with the offense #4 in the league extending drives (47% 3rd down conv #4). With a CAR secondary allowing 70% completions at home and an offense that is avg 30.5 ppg the L6W I’ll take the visitor whose only losses this season were against 3 div leaders with a combined 19-4 record.

PHIL'S FORECAST: DENVER 24 CAROLINA 17
TENNESSEE AT MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENNESSEE 94
291
16
-7
#3
MIAMI 111
289
34
-2
#24

The Dolphins had their 3 game win streak snapped at Indy last week. Miami was actually outgained by 139 ypg during that streak and after allowing St Louis to gain a season high they allowed 516 yds to Indy which is not only a season high but goes well back into the Manning years (week #13 of 2004)!! Now they return to South Beach as the hunted. The Dolphins D is getting exposed as into last week they were ranked #22 on defense but #5 in scoring D as teams now have a solid grasp on their redzone D. Playing on the road takes a solid rush attack (CJ 133 ypg & 6.3 when 16+ att’s) with a veteran QB (Hasselback 64% this year) and while you may say they’re 1-3 on the road this year, they did take on 3 Top 11 D’s (SD, HOU and MIN) before pulling an upset vs Buffalo. The Dolphins Tannehill is having a solid rookie season but one alarming note is that in their 3 close losses they’ve produced a total of 3 pts in those three 4Q’s and 2 OT’s. One team with nothing to lose versus the other off a disappointing loss.

PHIL'S FORECAST: MIAMI 24 TENNESSEE 20
OAKLAND AT BALTIMORE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 100
233
23
-1
#26
BALTIMORE 144
246
32
+7
#21
This should be easy, right? Baltimore is off a bye and a win at Cleveland and Oakland is off a home loss traveling across the county. The reality is that the Ravens are still getting looked at like yesteryears teams as they have the #26 D. Last week they were outgained vs CLE and while they did score 3 td’s, in their other 10 drives they avg’d 3.2 plays each (2 total FD’s). Cleveland meanwhile settled for 5 FG’s incl 4 from inside the 16 yd line. The Ravens have now gotten outgained by 40 ypg despite playing the #23 schedule. The Raiders were off B2B upset wins but after leading 10-3 at HT they were without McFadden (ankle, 7-17) and the one dimensional offense struggled and the D was worn out giving up 515 yds. If he’s heathy, he now faces a D that has allowed 156 ypg rushing the L/4. The Raiders have been a solid road team and in their L/15 away they only been beaten by more than 7 pts 4 times with the pair this year coming after traveling across the country off a Monday Night game and at Denver off an OT home upset. Baltimore always ramps up vs division foes and their other 3 wins this year have been by a total of 6 points.
PHIL'S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 31 OAKLAND 27
ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 139
298
28
+10
#28
NEW ORLEANS 96
303
25
0
#32

The Falcons have this game circled as they have lost 7 of the last 8 vs NO. Both teams are off prime time games and while both teams have faced bottom 5 schedules, ATL is +12 ypg (#10) while NO is -87 ypg (#30) with the Falcons being +10 in TO’s. Matt Ryan who has avg’d 275 ypg (60%) with a 6-1 ratio in his last 4 vs NO gets to take on the #31 pass def allowing 306 ypg (67%) with a 15-3 ratio vs 11 sacks. ATL by comparison was only allowing 217 ypg (67%) with a 7-10 ratio prior to DAL and they have pulled in 3 sacks in 6 of 7 games this year. NO is without RB Sproles (broken hand) again and there is now tape on how they adjusted the offense without him. It is noteworthy that ATL has only played 1 team with a winning record (DEN) but this is an excellent time for payback.

PHIL'S FORECAST: ATLANTA 27 NEW ORLEANS 23
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 135
290
29
-2
#1
MINNESOTA 179
149
22
-6
#4

The Lions dropped a home game, 20-13 vs MIN earlier this year. DET had the stat edge with 23-15 FD and 341-227 yd edges but they gave up a KR/PR for 14 pts as MIN ended an 11 game losing streak to NFC North foes. DET has outgained foes by 90 ypg so far this year (#21) thanks to the #2 and #7 units losing the yardage battle in only 1 game this year (SF). They did dominate last week as they held JAX to 36 or less yds on each of their 1st 6 drives (3 FD, 57 yds in 1H) but that was vs a team competing for the top pick in 2013. They now face a sterner test vs MIN thanks to RB Peterson who had 182 yds (10.7) vs the #5 defense on the road last week. Ponder has cooled off quite a bit in his last 3 games avg 124 ypg (51%) with a 2-4 ratio as teams lockdown Harvin (8 rec, 90 ypg first 6; 3 rec, 41 ypg last 3) who left last week’s game with an ankle injury. DET has the momentum with B2B wins while MIN comes in with B2B losses which means I’ll call for the road team by 1 in a higher scoring affair.

PHIL'S FORECAST: DETROIT 28 MINNESOTA 27
NY JETS AT SEATTLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 126
132
16
-1
#6
SEATTLE 152
171
24
0
#15
The Jets return from their bye having sustained 4 losses in their L/5 games and after a full 7 days off now have to take on SEA who is 4-0 at home this year. SEA withstood an impressive barrage by MIN to open the game but hammered them in the 2H with 14-4 FD and 187-59 yd edges. SEA’s #5 D has held foes to under 90 yds rushing in 7 of 9 games this year and at home they have allowed just 216 ypg (60%) with a 4-4 ratio vs Romo, Rodgers and Brady. Sanchez has struggled vs top 10 defenses with just 157 ypg (43%) and a 2-3 ratio vs PIT, SF and HOU as the Jets scored 17 or less in all 3. The Jets #16 defense has struggled vs the run allowing 141 ypg (4.4) which is a good matchup for RB Lynch who has 98 ypg (4.8) with five 100 yd games this year. The Jets aren’t an explosive team with a single 100 yd rushing effort by Greene (vs IND) with a single 100 yd receiving effort (TE Kerley vs NE) this year. I’m going to call for the home team but Rex had an extra week to gameplan for a rookie QB with a thin WR unit for now.
PHIL'S FORECAST: SEATTLE 21 NY JETS 14
DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DALLAS 120
276
18
-11
#19
PHILAELPHIA 105
245
19
-9
#22

A pair of desperate NFC East teams who both went into their prime time games last week at 3-4 and the Giants loss keeps the winner in striking distance. While Philly is off a Monday Night trip to NO, Dallas is in a situation disadvantage being on the road for the 4th time in 5 weeks off a trip to Atlanta. The Cowboys look for revenge after getting swept last year as they were outscored by a combined 54-14 and outgained by 376 yds. This season both teams are TO plagued with DAL at -11 and Philly at -9 but the Cowboys have outgained their foes by 91 ypg while Philly has been outgained by 104 ypg the L3W. Vick is now playing under extreme pressure with fans calling for Foles to get a chance and after tossing 6 int’s the first 2 games he has a 6-2 ratio since but has lost 5 fumbles and continues to not make the clutch throw. If there was a way both teams could find a way to lose, they would and I will call for the next closest thing....a tie.

PHIL'S FORECAST: PHILADELHPIA 20 DALLAS 20
ST LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 78
121
3
-2
#17
SAN FRANCISCO 154
252
25
+3
#20

With both teams off byes I clearly favor a winning, experienced team that is not happy with a 6-2 record versus a team that’s not used to winning and was 3-2 earlier this season but has now lost 3 straight. SF was held to under 100 yds rushing in both losses to Minnesota and the NY Giants which are teams with strong DL’s that can get sacks without blitzing. While St Louis’ D ranks #12 in sacks, 9 came against the sieve like Cardinals OL who has allowed 33 sks in their last 5 games. On the flip side the Rams have taken on 2 top 10 D’s on the road and have totaled a combined 411 yds!! SF has also been protective at home vs division foes especially on the defensive side of the ball allowing 214 ypg. The league leading rush attack (5.6 ypc) will feast on a Rams D that has allowed 169 ypg and 5.6 ypc to the top 3 rush teams they’ve faced.

PHIL'S FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 27 ST LOUIS 9
HOUSTON AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 91
206
19
+8
#19
CHICAGO 108
188
27
+16
#31

The best record in the AFC travels to face the second best record in the NFC. CHI has benefitted from playing the #30 schedule this year but you can call them a pretender as they’ve outgained those teams by only 6 ypg losing the yardage battle to 4 of them (+312 yds vs JAX). HOU’s combo of top 10 units (#10 off, #10 def, 5th best TO margin) has outgained the #18 schedule by 86 ypg losing the yardage battle only twice. Last week in scoring 51 pts on the road the Bears became the first NFL team to ever score td’s on a run, pass, int ret and a blocked kick ALL in 1Q! That final has been like many misleading CHI finals this year as Cutler is comp only 58%, has been sacked 14 times in the last 3 games and has thrown 8 int’s in 8 games after only having 7 last year. Their offense will also have to adjust to the one man wrecking crew known as JJ Watt (#1 w/10.5 sks) who demands double teaming. The Texans meanwhile slept through their 1H after their bye but in the 2H held BUF to 3 pts, 6 FD’s and 119 yards. That won’t happen here as the fired up Texans win in the Windy City.

PHIL'S FORECAST: HOUSTON 27 CHICAGO 24

BYES: ARIZONA, CLEVELAND, GREEN BAY, WASHINGTON