Ten years ago I did an article on ypp and every year there are some solid charts for you to review. First of all, let’s explain what ypp is exactly. A ypp is simply yards per point. An offense is more efficient when their ypp is a lower number like in golf. If a team had an offensive ypp of 10.0, that would mean for every 200 yards they gained, they scored 20 points. Meanwhile, if they had an offensive ypp of 20.0, then for every 200 yards they gained, they only scored 10 points. On the other side of the ball, defenses want to have a higher ypp. Inverting the same thought, if a team allowed 200 yards and had a 20.0 ypp, that means they would allow just 10 points for every 200 yards the opposition traveled, whereas a 10.0 ypp would be 20 points for every 200 yards allowed. When I started this research in 1990, the average ypp for a team was 15.44 and the median was 15.49. It surprises me how much the median has dropped inside this decade. Last year the avg was just 14.42 and the median was 13.77.

I found teams that have a high offensive ypp (move the ball but do not score) the previous year generally have a stronger record the next season. Let’s look at teams that had an unusually high ypp the previous year (an inefficient offense). If you look at the chart above you will see that 28 teams have had a ypp greater than 22.3 since 1990 and ALL 28 have had a stronger or identical record the next year. Last year New Mexico topped the chart at 24.68 and went from 1-11 to 4-9. In fact, the Lobos won more games last year (4) than they did the previous 3 years combined (3)! As you can see, the chart goes to 17.5, which still has a solid success record, as teams will either have the same or a stronger record 75.5% of the time. Last year 7 teams received mention in this box and 5 of the 7 went on to have a stronger or same record in 2012.

Teams that had an extremely low ypp the previous year usually have a weaker record the next season. The statistics are not as dominant as the high ypp, probably because there are some teams that benefit from turnovers on a yearly basis, keeping their ypp low. Still, according to the chart above, teams whose ypp were less than 11.57 the previous year had either a weaker or the same record 73.2% of the time the next year. There are a lot of teams that fit into the category of 11.57-13.57, so make sure you check out the complete list below. Looking at the history of offensive ypp, these teams have a 67.2% chance of a weaker or same record this season.

2012 Offensive YPP

Now let’s take a look at the teams under the defensive ypp that were not so fortunate last year. As the chart below shows, if a team allows a defensive ypp of 12.53 or lower, (meaning they gave up a lot of points but not a lot of yds), their record improves or is the same the next year 72.6% of the time.  Last year there were 12 teams that fit this category and 9 of those teams (75%) had a better or same record in 2012. Overall, teams that have a 13.29 defensive ypp or lower since 1990 have either had a stronger or same record 69.3% of the time.

Teams that allowed a lot of yards but not a lot of points are generally considered bend but don't break D’s. However as shown below, teams whose defensive ypp was 17.35 or greater the previous year have a weaker or the same record the following year 65.3% of the time. Last year 5 teams were coming off seasons with a 18.53 def ypp or higher and 4 of those teams would go on to have weaker records.  The exception to this rule as of late has been Alabama who has been featured in the article the last several years and has improved its record each of the last 2 years despite having a 21.0 defensive ypp or greater each year!

2012 Defensive YPP

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