Daily Blog •July 24, 2013

With an official 4-team seeded playoff beginning in 2014 and running for 12 years, I thought it would be a great day to take a step back in time and analyze which would have been the best system (BCS, 4-Team, 8-Team or 16-Team playoff) in the BCS Era (1998-2012).

In the first two years of the BCS, I thought that the best team in the country for that year (Ohio St ’98 and Nebraska ’99) did not get a chance to play in the national title game. This prompted me to come up with a solution to include all deserving teams of a chance at taking home the title. My proposed system was to include four teams and seed them #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3. The semi-finals would include the current bowls with those games being played on January 1st and the national championship game would be played at a later date.

Naturally the main reason I chose just four teams and not eight or 16 was to preserve what I think without question is the best regular season in all of sport! You cannot give me a single plausible argument as to why teams with two or more losses should be given a chance to play for a national title. I think you will find in most years there are three teams that are fighting for those top two spots and as long as you include those teams, I don’t think it really matters as to who is the #4 or #5 team as long as the true deserving teams are in the field.

Below is the complete chart of every year from 1998-2012 with a breakdown of how the teams were ranked heading into the bowl games and what each playoff format would have looked like. I used the AP Poll rankings and not the final BCS Rankings because we are heading into a direction where a selection committee will pick the teams and will be much more subjective (like the AP Poll) than a computer ranking.

Before, I get into a year-by-year analysis I do want to mention that last year prior to the National Title game, I thought the BCS got it right having an undefeated Notre Dame team play the defending national champ and current SEC champ Alabama for the title. However, in retrospect after watching Alabama destroy Notre Dame, a 4-team playoff may have been better served as you look back to Notre Dame’s season and look at all of their close calls including the Pittsburgh game. Naturally, AP #3 Ohio State could not be included since they were ineligible to play for the BCS championship.

I really believe #5 Oregon and #4 Florida would have given the Tide a better game and if you were arguing for #6 Georgia to be included, they had their shot against the Tide in the SEC championship and lost while #7 Kansas St was blown out in their only loss of the season to a 5-loss Baylor teams. #8 Stanford and #9 LSU each had 2 losses and didn’t deserve to play for the National Title as it would devalue the regular season.

Here is a year-by-year breakdown of what systems were best, good and worst for the last 15 years.

Which BCS/Playoff System Would Have
Worked Best in the BCS Era (1998-2012)

*All Rankings Used were Final Regular Season AP Poll

Key
Best System
Good System
Worst System
Year BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
1998 #1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#2 Florida St (11-1)
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#4 Kansas St (11-1)
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#8 Texas A&M (11-2)
#1 Tennessee (12-0) vs
#16 Air Force (11-1)
FSU was playing with
a backup QB
#2 Florida St (11-1) vs
#3 Ohio St (10-1)
#2 Florida St (11-1) vs
#7 Florida (9-2)
#2 Florida St (11-1) vs
#15 Michigan (9-3)
  OSU was arguably best
team at end of ssn.
#3 Ohio St (10-1) vs
#6 UCLA (10-1)
#3 Ohio St (10-1) vs
#14 Nebraska (9-3)
    #4 Kansas St (11-1) vs
#5 Arizona (11-1)
#4 Kansas St (11-1) vs
#13 Virginia (9-2)
    This system would have
gotten Zona/UCLA in
#5 Arizona (11-1) vs
#12 Georgia Tech (9-2)
    but both played in the
then weak Pac-10
#6 UCLA (10-1) vs
#11 Arkansas (9-2)
      #7 Florida (9-2) vs
#10 Tulane (11-0)
      #8 Texas A&M (11-2) vs
#9 Wisconsin (10-1)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
1999 #1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#2 Virginia Tech (11-0)
#1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#4 Wisconsin (9-2)
#1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#8 Michigan (9-2)
#1 Florida St (11-0) vs
#16 Southern Miss (8-3)
Only Top 2 needed to be in #2 Virginia Tech (11-0) vs
#3 Nebraska (11-1)
#2 Virginia Tech vs
#7 Kansas St (10-1)
#2 Virginia Tech (11-0) vs
#15 Miss St (9-2)
  Nebraska was arguably
best team at end of ssn.
#3 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#6 Tennessee (9-2)
#3 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#14 Texas (9-4)
  #5 Bama had 2 losses #4 Wisconsin (9-2) vs
#5 Alabama (10-2)
#4 Wisconsin (9-2) vs
#13 Penn St (9-3)
    With exception of KSt
who lost to Neb by 4 td's
#5 Alabama (10-2) vs
#12 Minnesota (8-3)
    #4-8 all had 2 losses #6 Tennessee vs
#11 Marshall (12-0)
      #7 Kansas St (10-1) vs
#10 Florida (9-3)
      #8 Michigan (9-2) vs
#9 Michigan St (9-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2000 #1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#3 Florida St (11-1)
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#4 Washington (10-1)
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#8 Oregon (9-2)
#1 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#16 Clemson (9-2)
  #2 Miami, Fl (10-1) vs
#3 Florida St (11-1)
#2 Miami, Fl (10-1) vs
#7 Florida (10-2)
#2 Miami, Fl (10-1) vs
#15 Georgia Tech (9-2)
  #5 Oregon St lost to
#4 Washington in reg ssn.
#3 Florida St (11-1) vs
#6 Virginia Tech (10-1)
#3 Florida St (11-1) vs
#14 Purdue (8-3)
  #6 Va Tech lost to
#2 Miami in reg ssn.
#4 Washington (10-1) vs
#5 Oregon St (10-1)
#4 Washington (10-1) vs
#13 TCU (10-1)
    OSU/VT would have
been included
#5 Oregon St (10-1) vs
#12 Texas (9-2)
      #6 Virginia Tech (10-1) vs
#11 Kansas St (10-3)
      #7 Florida (10-2) vs
#10 Notre Dame (9-2)
      #8 Oregon (9-2) vs
#9 Nebraska (9-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2001 #1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#4 Nebraska (11-1)
#1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#4 Nebraska (11-1)
#1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#8 Tennessee (10-2)
#1 Miami, Fl (11-0) vs
#16 Georgia (8-3)
  #2 Oregon (10-1) vs
#3 Colorado (10-2)
#2 Oregon (10-1) vs
#7 Illinois (10-1)
#2 Oregon (10-1) vs
#15 Virginia Tech (8-3)
  These matchups occurred
in the bowls
#3 Colorado (10-2) vs
#6 Maryland (10-1)
#3 Colorado (10-2) vs
#14 South Carolina (8-3)
  and would have given us
a Miami/Oreg Nat'l Title
#4 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#5 Florida (9-2)
#4 Nebraska (11-1) vs
#13 Washington St (9-2)
      #5 Florida (9-2) vs
#12 LSU (9-3)
  #5 UF had 2 losses and
lost at home to UT in
  #6 Maryland (10-1) vs
#11 Stanford (9-2)
  reg ssn finale.   #7 Illinois (10-1) vs
#10 Oklahoma (10-2)
      #8 Tennessee (10-2) vs
#9 Texas (10-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2002 #1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#2 Ohio St (13-0)
#1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#4 Georgia (12-1)
#1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#8 Oklahoma (11-2)
#1 Miami, Fl (12-0) vs
#16 Florida St (9-4)
Only the top 2 needed
to be in
#2 Ohio St (13-0) vs
#3 Iowa (11-1)
#2 Ohio St (13-0) vs
#7 Washington St (10-2)
#2 Ohio St (13-0) vs
#15 West Virginia (9-3)
Old system would have had
OSU play Wash St in Rose
#5 USC and #6 KSt both had
2 losses.

#3 Iowa (11-1) vs
#6 Kansas St (10-2)

#3 Iowa (11-1) vs
#14 Colorado (9-4)
  UGA was SEC Champ and
Iowa/OSU didn't play.
#4 Georgia (12-1) vs
#5 USC (10-2)
#4 Georgia (12-1) vs
#13 Alabama (10-3)
    While USC did crush Iowa
In Orange Bowl
#5 USC (10-2) vs
#12 Michigan (9-3)
    Trojans had 2 losses
already same as #5-8
#6 Kansas St (10-2) vs
#11 Notre Dame (10-2)
    while #1-4 had 1 loss
or less.
#7 Washington St (10-2) vs
#10 Penn St (9-3)
      #8 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#9 Texas (10-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2003 #2 LSU (12-1) vs
#3 Oklahoma (12-1)
#1 USC (11-1) vs
#4 Michigan (10-2)
#1 USC (11-1) vs
#8 Kansas St (11-3)
#1 USC 11-1) vs
#16 Missississippi (9-3)
  #2 LSU (12-1) vs
#3 Oklahoma (12-1)
#2 LSU (12-1) vs
#7 Ohio St (10-2)
#2 LSU (12-1) vs
#15 Washington St (9-3)
  These matchups occurred
in bowls and would have
#3 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#6 Tennessee (10-2)
#3 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#14 Miami, Oh (11-1)
  given us a USC/LSU
Nat'l Title game.
#4 Michigan (10-2) vs
#5 Texas (10-2)
#4 Michigan (10-2) vs
#13 Iowa (9-3)
    Tms 5-8 all had 2 or
more losses.
#5 Texas (10-2) vs
#12 Purdue (9-3)
  #5 TX had 2 losses and
lost to OU in reg ssn 65-13.
  #6 Tennessee (10-2) vs
#11 Georgia (10-3)
  Only Top 3 needed to be in   #7 Ohio St (10-2) vs
#10 Miami, Fl (10-2)
      #8 Kansas St (11-3) vs
#9 Florida St (10-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2004 #1 USC (12-0) vs
#2 Oklahoma (12-0)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#4 California (10-1)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#8 Georgia (9-2)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#16 Wisconsin (9-2)
  #2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#3 Auburn (12-0)
#2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#7 Louisville (10-1)
#2 Oklahoma (12-0) vs
#15 Tennessee (9-3)
OU/USC were 1-2 all year. One could argue that AP
#5 Utah would have been
#3 Auburn (12-0) vs
#6 Texas (10-1)
#3 Auburn (12-0) vs
#14 Miami, Fl (8-3)
  voted over Cal to avoid a
rematch in a 4-tm format
#4 California (10-1) vs
#5 Utah (11-0)
#4 California (10-1) vs
#13 Michigan (9-2)
      #5 Utah (11-0) vs
#12 LSU (9-2)
  Only Top 3 needed to be in   #6 Texas (10-1) vs
#11 Iowa (9-2)
      #7 Louisville (10-1) vs
#10 Boise St (11-0)
      #8 Georgia (9-2) vs
#9 Virginia Tech (10-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2005 #1 USC (12-0) vs
#2 Texas (12-0)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#4 Ohio St (9-2)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#8 Georgia (10-2)
#1 USC (12-0) vs
#16 Florida (8-3)
Only Top 2 Needed to be in #2 Texas (12-0) vs
#3 Penn St (10-1)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs
#7 Auburn (9-2)
#2 Texas (12-0) vs
#15 Louisville (9-2)
    #3 Penn St (10-1) vs
#6 Oregon (10-1)
#3 Penn St (10-1) vs
#14 TCU (10-1)
  The BCS worked out perfectly.
The semi-final gms would
#4 Ohio St (9-2) vs
#5 Notre Dame (9-2)
#4 Ohio St (9-2) vs
#13 Alabama (9-2)
  have risked an upset
and we might not have had

How could you make
USC and Texas go thru

#5 Notre Dame (9-2) vs
#12 Virginia Tech (10-2)
  the epic title gm
between USC/TX
two additional games just
to get to the title gm?
#6 Oregon (10-1) vs
#11 West Virginia (10-1)
      #7 Auburn (9-2) vs
#10 LSU (10-2)
      #8 Georgia (10-2) vs
#9 Miami, Fl (9-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2006 #1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#2 Florida (12-1)
#1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#4 LSU (10-2)
#1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#8 USC (10-2)
#1 Ohio St (12-0) vs
#16 Rutgers (10-2)
  #2 Florida (12-1) vs
#3 Michigan (11-1)
#2 Florida (12-1) vs
#7 Oklahoma (11-2)
#2 Florida (12-1) vs
#15 Wake Forest (11-2)
    #3 Michigan (11-1) vs
#6 Wisconsin (11-1)
#3 Michigan (11-1) vs
#14 Virginia Tech (10-2)
  USC lost to UCLA in final
gm or Trojans would have
#4 LSU (10-2) vs
#5 Louisville (11-1)
#4 LSU (10-2) vs
#13 West Virginia (10-2)
  been #2.   #5 Louisville (11-1) vs
#12 Arkansas (10-3)
  Only Top 3 needed to be in.   #6 Wisconsin (11-1) vs
#11 Notre Dame (10-2)
      #7 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#10 Auburn (10-2)
      #8 USC (10-2) vs
#9 Boise St (12-0)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2007 #1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#2 LSU (11-2)
#1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#4 Georgia (10-2)
#1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#8 Kansas (11-1)
#1 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#16 Tennessee (9-4)
  #2 LSU (11-2) vs
#3 Oklahoma (11-2)
#2 LSU (11-2) vs
#7 Missouri (11-2)
#2 LSU (11-2) vs
#15 Clemson (9-3)
  This was a wacky year and
no system could
#3 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#6 USC (10-2)
#3 Oklahoma (11-2) vs
#14 Boston College (10-3)
  have produced a true nat'l
champ as all the teams
#4 Georgia (10-2) vs
#5 Virginia Tech (11-2)
#4 Georgia (10-2) vs
#13 Illinois (9-3)
  lost key gms at the
end of the year.
This is not the type of
year would want to
#5 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs
#12 Arizona St (10-2)
    base a national tite
format on.
#6 USC (10-2) vs
#11 West Virginia (10-2)
      #7 Missouri (11-2) vs
#10 Hawaii (12-0)
      #8 Kansas (11-1) vs
#9 Florida (9-3)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2008 #1 Florida (12-1) vs
#2 Oklahoma (12-1)
#1 Florida (12-1) vs
#4 Alabama (12-1)
#1 Florida (12-1) vs
#8 Texas Tech (11-1)
#1 Florida (12-1) vs
#16 Georgia (9-3)
  #2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#3 Texas (11-1)
#2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#7 Utah (12-0) 
#2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs
#15 Oregon (9-3)
  Both these matchups
occurred at neutral sites
#3 Texas (11-1) vs
#6 Penn St (11-1)
#3 Texas (11-1) vs
#14 Georgia Tech (9-3)
  in reg ssn and one could
argue #5 USC might
#4 Alabama (12-1) vs
#5 USC (11-1)
#4 Alabama (12-1) vs
#13 Oklahoma St (9-3)
  have been voted higher
in a 4-tm playoff format
This would have allowed
Utah who beat
#5 USC (11-1) vs
#12 Cincinnatu (11-2)
    Bama in Sugar a chance
to play for Title
#6 Penn St (11-1) vs
#11 TCU (10-2)
      #7 Utah (12-0) vs
#10 Ohio St (10-2)
      #8 Texas Tech (11-1) vs
#9 Boise St (12-0)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2009 #1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#2 Texas (13-0)
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#4 Cincinnati (12-0)
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#8 Ohio St (10-2)
#1 Alabama (13-0) vs
#16 Oregon St (8-4)
  #2 Texas (13-0) vs
#3 TCU (12-0)
#2 Texas (13-0) vs
#7 Oregon (10-2)
#2 Texas (13-0) vs
#15 BYU (10-2)
Only Bama/Texas
Needed To Be In
Allowed for 2 more unbeatens
to get in
#3 TCU (12-0) vs
#6 Boise St (13-0)
#3 TCU (12-0) vs
#14 Miami, Fl (9-3)
    #4 Cincinnati (12-0) vs
#5 Florida (12-1)
#4 Cincinnati (12-0) vs
#13 LSU (9-3)
    #7-8 had no business
playing for Title
#5 Florida (12-1) vs
#12 Virginia Tech (9-3)
    One could argue a
6-tm playoff here
#6 Boise St (13-0) vs
#11 Penn St (10-2)
    w/Bama& TX w/byes. #7 Oregon (10-2) vs
#10 Iowa (10-2)
      #8 Ohio St (10-2) vs
#9 Georgia Tech (11-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2010 #1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#2 Oregon (12-0)
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#4 Wisconsin (11-1)
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#8 Arkansas (10-2)
#1 Auburn (13-0) vs
#16 Oklahoma St (10-2)
  #2 Oregon (12-0) vs
#3 TCU (12-0)
#2 Oregon (12-0) vs
#7 Michigan St (11-1)
#2 Oregon (12-0) vs
#15 Alabama (9-3)
  Only Top 3 needed to be in. #3 TCU (12-0) vs
#6 Ohio St (11-1)
#3 TCU (12-0) vs
#14 Missouri (10-2)
    #4 Wisconsin (11-1) vs
#5 Stanford (11-1)
#4 Wisconsin (11-1) vs
#13 Nevada (12-1)
      #5 Stanford (11-1) vs
#12 Virginia Tech (11-2)
      #6 Ohio St (11-1) vs
#11 LSU (10-2)
      #7 Michigan St (11-1) vs
#10 Boise St (11-1)
      #8 Arkansas (10-2) vs
#9 Oklahoma (11-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2011 #1 LSU (13-0) vs
#2 Alabama (11-1)
#1 LSU (13-0) vs
#4 Stanford (11-1)
#1 LSU (13-0) vs
#8 Boise St (11-1)
#1 LSU (13-0) vs
#16 TCU (10-2)
  #2 Alabama (11-1) vs
#3 Oklahoma St (11-1)
#2 Alabama (11-1) vs
#7 Arkansas (10-2)
#2 Alabama (11-1) vs
#15 Baylor (9-3)
  Only Top 4 needed to be in. #3 Oklahoma St (11-1) vs
#6 Oregon (11-2)
#3 Oklahoma St (11-1) vs
#14 Clemson (10-3)
    #4 Stanford (11-1) vs
#5 USC (10-2)
#4 Stanford (11-1) vs
#13 Michigan (10-2)
      #5 USC (10-2) vs
#12 Michigan St (10-2)
      #6 Oregon (11-2) vs
#11 Kansas St (10-2)
      #7 Arkansas (10-2) vs
#10 South Carolina (10-2)
      #8 Boise St (11-1) vs
#9 Wisconsin (11-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
2012 #1 Notre Dame (12-0) vs
#2 Alabama (12-1)
#1 Notre Dame (12-0) vs
#5 Oregon (11-1)
#1 Notre Dame (12-0) vs
#9 LSU (10-2)
#1 Notre Dame (12-0) vs
#17 UCLA (9-4)
Before Champ gm, this was
best system
#2 Alabama (12-1) vs
#4 Florida (11-1)
#2 Alabama (12-1) vs
#8 Stanford (11-2)
#2 Alabama (12-1) vs
#16 Northern Illinois (12-1)
  After Title gm, Oreg/UF
may have been better
#4 Florida (11-1) vs
#7 Kansas St (11-1)
#3 Florida (11-1) vs
#15 Oregon St (9-3)
  #3 Ohio St was ineligible #5 Oregon (11-1) vs
#6 Georgia (11-2)
#5 Oregon (11-1) vs
#14 Clemson (10-2)
      #6 Georgia (11-2) vs
#13 Florida St (11-2)
      #7 Kansas St (11-1) vs
#12 Oklahoma (10-2)
      #8 Stanford (11-2) vs
#11 South Carolina (10-2)
      #9 LSU (10-2) vs
#10 Texas A&M (10-2)
BCS 4-Team Playoff 8-Team Playoff 16-Team Playoff
Best System -
3 of 15 yrs 20%
Best System -
10 of 15 yrs 67%
Best System -
2 of 15 yrs 13%
Every Yr would have
allowed a 3 loss tm
Good System  -
8 of 15 yrs 53%
Good System  -
5 of 15 yrs 33%
Good System  -
2 of 15 yrs 13%
to play for national title
Worst System -
4 of 15 yrs 27%
Worst System -
0 of 15 yrs 0%
Worst System -
11 of 15 yrs 73%
Worst System
15 of 15 yrs 100%


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