| Daily Blog •June 25, 2013 |
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My 2013 College Football Preview Magazine has so much information in it that it would take months to go thru it all. It is like 126 media guides rolled into one.
Magazine is a loose term for it as the Preview is more like a book with over 100 pages more than any other college football magazine. Not only does it have more pages, but the magazine has 2 to 3 times the amount of information on each page! That gives my magazine 3 to 4 times the amount of information of any other magazine!
I mention all of this because there are even parts of the magazine that I myself forget about during the year. Every spring once I have finished my conference write-ups, Top 40, All-American and All-Conference Teams I wrap up the “other” pages in the magazine. One of those pages that I find a lot of fun is the projected stats which is on page 23.
I have in-depth power ratings which rates each team’s rush offense, pass offense and points scored as well as all three categories for the defense. I have my computer match up each team vs all of their opponents and play the games out during the year. These projected statistics are not some random number I throw into the the magazine to fill up space (I never have ANYTHING in the magazine that is used for filler!). They take into account this year’s team vs this year’s schedule and they are remarkably accurate.
Let me give you a few examples from the last couple of years:
In 2009, Rice returned only 3 starters from a unit that avg’d 41.3 ppg in 2008 and the Owls went on to score a pedestrian 18.3 ppg. Three years ago they returned 9 starters and in my 2010 Preview I declared that they would have the Most Improved Offensive Points in the country and my computer predicted they would avg 28.6 ppg. Amazingly Rice would go on to score 28.7 ppg a 10.4 ppg improvement and my computer was just .1 PPG off!
On the defensive side in 2010, Miami, Oh was my #2 Most Improved Defensive Points allowed team in the country as they returned nine starters from a unit that allowed 34.2 ppg in 2009. My computer projected they would give up 28.0 ppg a 6.2 ppg improvement but even the RedHawks exceeded my expectations and allowed just 23.2 ppg a 11 ppg improvement last year!
I could go on and on with the examples because I find projecting statistics as fascinating as projecting wins and losses.
Today ’s blog takes at look at my computer’s projected stats for the Sun Belt, MAC, Independents and CUSA! Each team has their rush off/def, pass off/def, and points off/def projected averages for the season as well as their ppg and ypg differences. Each conference is sorted by the ppg difference for the entire season and not just for conference games.
Sun Belt
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Arkansas St | 228.3 | 245.7 | 34.8 | 128.2 | 231.5 | 26 | 114.3 (25) | 8.8 (32) |
| Louisiana | 205.6 | 270.9 | 35.9 | 143 | 243.6 | 27.8 | 90.0 (35) | 8.1 (34) |
| ULM | 151.1 | 297 | 31.9 | 140.9 | 243.3 | 29.6 | 63.8 (46) | 2.3 (62) |
| WKU | 133.4 | 255.8 | 27.4 | 174.7 | 177.5 | 26.4 | 37.0 (58) | 1.0 (70) |
| South Alabama | 152.5 | 232.7 | 26.6 | 176.1 | 221 | 29.2 | -11.9 (82) | -2.6 (86) |
| Troy | 113.6 | 302.8 | 29.3 | 181.7 | 259.1 | 33.5 | -24.4 (87) | -4.3 (91) |
| Texas St | 166.2 | 182.2 | 25.4 | 168.8 | 251 | 31.2 | -71.5 (107) | -5.8 (99) |
| Georgia St | 90.4 | 166.3 | 18.9 | 228 | 292.9 | 38 | -264.2 (126) | -19.1 (124) |
The Sun Belt has been one of the tougher conferences to predict in the past couple of years. Arkansas St has been the best team in the conference the last two years and my computer thinks statistically that the Red Wolves will be the best again in 2013. It projects that they will out-gain their foes by an average of 114.3 ypg and outscore them by 8.8 ppg. Louisiana, which is my pick to win the Sun Belt this year is closely behind them as my computer projects them to out-gain their foes by 90.0 ypg and outscore them by 8.1 ppg.
MAC
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Northern Illinois | 261.6 | 260.6 | 41.1 | 147.7 | 233.6 | 25.9 | 141.0 (17) | 15.2 (13) |
| Bowling Green | 177.9 | 265 | 29.8 | 138.3 | 206.6 | 23.1 | 98.0 (31) | 6.7 (40) |
| Ohio | 209.9 | 281.6 | 32.9 | 175.6 | 219.9 | 29.4 | 95.9 (32) | 3.5 (55) |
| Buffalo | 185.5 | 241 | 30 | 175.6 | 212.6 | 28.5 | 38.3 (55) | 1.4 (69) |
| Ball St | 189.4 | 286 | 34.5 | 203.8 | 251.3 | 32.4 | 20.3 (65) | 2.0 (64) |
| Toledo | 197.8 | 292 | 36.3 | 192.7 | 281.9 | 33.3 | 15.3 (69) | 3.0 (56) |
| Western Michigan | 125.7 | 284.8 | 30.3 | 179.7 | 228.3 | 29.6 | 2.5 (76) | 0.7 (71) |
| Akron | 138.8 | 259.5 | 27.9 | 207.2 | 254.6 | 33.4 | -63.6 (102) | -5.5 (97) |
| Central Michigan | 168.7 | 231.2 | 27.9 | 186.2 | 288.9 | 38 | -75.2 (110) | -10.1 (117) |
| Kent St | 214.4 | 159.8 | 25.6 | 169.9 | 284.4 | 33.3 | -80.2 (112) | -7.7 (109) |
| Miami, Ohio | 114.4 | 269.7 | 28 | 217.3 | 259.4 | 33.5 | -92.5 (115) | -5.5 (95) |
| Eastern Michigan | 169.2 | 173.8 | 23.9 | 256.5 | 246.5 | 37.7 | -160.0 (121) | -13.8 (122) |
| Massachusetts | 100 | 189 | 17.2 | 246.1 | 252.6 | 39.4 | -209.7 (124) | -22.1 (126) |
Northern Illinois has been the class of the MAC the last couple of years and according to my computer 2013 looks no different. Last year the Huskies averaged 38.6 ppg and 470 ypg on offense and this year with 8 starters back including quarterback Jordan Lynch, my computer is projecting that they will top that with 41.1 ppg and 522 ypg. Overall, the Huskies are projected to outgain their opponents by 141 ypg and outscore them by 15.2 ppg. There is a significant drop off after them as Bowling Green is projected to outscore their opponents by 6.7 ppg and outgain them by 98 ypg.
Independents
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Notre Dame | 152.8 | 294.1 | 28.9 | 118.5 | 186 | 16.5 | 142.3 (16) | 12.4 (20) |
| BYU | 149.4 | 274.6 | 29.8 | 150.7 | 213.4 | 22.2 | 59.9 (49) | 7.6 (37) |
| Old Dominion | 178 | 282.1 | 35.6 | 154.5 | 246.2 | 31 | 59.4 (50) | 4.6 (50) |
| Army | 349.4 | 81.7 | 29.3 | 193.8 | 217.8 | 31.5 | 19.5 (66) | -2.1 (84) |
| Navy | 288.9 | 118.8 | 27.6 | 200 | 237.5 | 30.2 | -29.8 (89) | -2.6 (87) |
| New Mexico St | 104.7 | 226.8 | 21.5 | 194.7 | 237.8 | 32.2 | -101.0 (117) | -10.8 (118) |
| Idaho | 109.9 | 198.9 | 20.9 | 223.8 | 302.5 | 41.4 | -217.6 (125) | -20.5 (125) |
In last year’s National Title run for Notre Dame they outscored their opponents by an avg of 25.8-12.8 and outgained them by 412-305. This year my computer projects that they will outscore their opponents by an average of 28.9-16.5 while outgaining them 447-305. Old Dominion might surprise many that they statistically are ahead of Army and Navy but keep in mind the Monarchs are playing only 5 FBS teams this year.
CUSA
| OFF | OFF | OFF | DEF | DEF | DEF | YPG DIFF | PPG DIFF | |
| RUSH | PASS | PTS | RUSH | PASS | PTS | (Nat'l Rank) | (Nat'l Rank) | |
| Marshall | 206.9 | 352.7 | 42.6 | 154.5 | 229.7 | 30.5 | 175.4 (7) | 12.1 (21) |
| East Carolina | 134.6 | 330.6 | 37 | 128.3 | 259.2 | 28.8 | 77.8 (42) | 8.2 (33) |
| Tulsa | 225.3 | 259.6 | 35.7 | 146.5 | 261 | 30.8 | 77.3 (43) | 4.9 (47) |
| Rice | 199.8 | 244.9 | 33.7 | 159.8 | 246.9 | 29 | 38.0 (56) | 4.7 (49) |
| North Texas | 159.3 | 281.3 | 30.7 | 176.6 | 249.9 | 30.2 | 14.1 (70) | 0.5 (72) |
| Louisiana Tech | 158.1 | 315.9 | 36.7 | 198.1 | 279.3 | 38.3 | -3.4 (78) | -1.6 (80) |
| UAB | 157.6 | 258.2 | 32.3 | 185.4 | 259.9 | 35.7 | -29.6 (88) | -3.4 (89) |
| Middle Tennessee | 191.2 | 214.6 | 27 | 164.3 | 277.9 | 32.8 | -36.4 (93) | -5.7 (98) |
| Tulane | 127.3 | 276 | 33.2 | 180 | 260.3 | 32.8 | -37.0 (94) | 0.4 (73) |
| UTEP | 150.2 | 243.5 | 25.6 | 200.9 | 262.4 | 32.5 | -69.7 (105) | -6.9 (106) |
| Southern Miss | 136.9 | 213 | 27.5 | 182.9 | 244 | 32.7 | -77.0 (111) | -5.2 (94) |
| FIU | 143.6 | 237.1 | 26.3 | 180.1 | 282.9 | 35.9 | -82.3 (114) | -9.6 (115) |
| Florida Atlantic | 107.6 | 214.7 | 21.8 | 186 | 260.1 | 34.5 | -123.8 (119) | -12.7 (120) |
| UTSA | 137.4 | 220.4 | 25.9 | 175.8 | 319.6 | 39.5 | -137.5 (120) | -13.5 (121) |
Marshall is my #1 most improved team in the country this year and my computer agrees. The Herd were actually outscored last year by an avg of 43.1-40.9 ppg but this year my computer is calling for them to outscore their opp’s by an avg of 42.6-30.5 (+12.1 ppg). Last year they outgained foes by an avg of 77 ypg but this year my computer is calling for them to outgain foes by 175 ypg. East Carolina and Tulsa are closely behind while CUSA newcomer North Texas might be a surprise to come in at #5 as far as outgaining their foes (+14.1 ypg) and outscoring them (+0.5 ppg).
Tomorrow, I will give you my computer projected stats for the Mountain West, American Athletic, Pac-12 and ACC.