Daily Blog • September 25th

 

Welcome back to my Top 25 Forecasts. In the past several years, I have given you my complete forecasts for every game involving Top 25 teams. This year I am going to give you my forecasts that include just the Top 5 teams as you need to become a Inside the Pressbox subscriber to get all of my forecasts for not only the games involving the Top 25 teams but also any FBS vs FBS game.

 

#1 Alabama vs #21 Ole Miss
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OLE MISS 135
226
20
+1
-
ALABAMA
119
292
39
+1
••••

Bama has won 9 in a row. LY Ole Miss was only outFD’d 17-16 and outgained 305-218. They ended the Tide’s streak of not trailing in a game for 603 min and 46 sec. That lead (7-6) lasted for :15 as Bama got a 99 yd KR td but Bama only won 33-14. Miss has to travel to Tuscaloosa for a 2nd straight season and 3rd time in 4 years. In what was a clear flat spot for the Tide LW off their 49-42 win over A&M, they sat several st’rs and only led CSt 17-6 in the 4Q before putting it away. Players afterward described the post-gm locker room as “somber,” which means they could be playing w/a chip on their shoulders here. Ole Miss is 3-0 after their 44-23 win over TX 2 wks ago. The Rebs are even better than LY’s team that hung w/the Tide for awhile, however, that effort should have the Tide focused here in what should be another double digit win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 40 OLE MISS 20
#2 Oregon vs California
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CALIFORNIA 61
303
15
+1
-
OREGON
329
386
60
+7
The Ducks have now won 4 in a row. The L2Y UO has rolled up 563 and 575 yds and won by an avg of 51-16. LY trailing just 24-17, Cal was int’d at their own 35 and the Ducks hit a 35 yd td pass on the next play and the rout was on. Both tms are fresh off a bye. The Ducks clearly deserve their lofty #2 ranking as they have outscored their opp by an avg of 61-9 even thought they have played 2 BCS tms. Unlike past yrs, new HC Helfrich is not letting up in the 2H as they are avg 27 ppg after the break. Cal is playing their 3rd ranked foe already TY and despite true frosh QB Goff’s record setting numbers (435 pass ypg, 61%, 7-4 ratio), the D continues to be an issue all’g 556 ypg (#120), which doesn’t bode well vs a UO off avg 672 ypg.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OREGON 63 CALIFORNIA 21
#3 Clemson vs Wake Forest
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WAKE FOREST 94
162
10
+3
-
CLEMSON
190
310
37
+5
••

CU is 15-4 and have outgained WF by over 200 yds in each of the L4Y. LY CU WR Watkins set a schl rec 202 yds and QB Boyd threw for a schl rec 428 yds and 5 td’s. LW Clem beat NCSt 26-14 but were fortunate as a huge swing play in the 3Q had NCSt getting an 80-yd td called back due to an inadvertent whistle, and 4 pl (after an NCSt fmbl) Clem had a td and instead of trailing 14-13 led 20-7. NCSt did conv 4 4th Dns on a record 23pl drive late in the 4Q. Wake after a disappointing 1-2 start incl losses vs BC/ULM, found themselves down 11-10 in the 2H vs Army LW but pulled out a 25-11 win as the ground gm finally got on track w/228 yds. Clem is in uncharted waters being ranked in the Top 3 and will be getting everyone’s best shot but clearly they should roll here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 41 WAKE FOREST 14
#4 Ohio St vs #23 Wisconsin
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 242
146
24
+3
-
OHIO ST
267
219
39
+10
LY OSU led 14-0 mid-2Q but on their next 8 drives only could muster 4 FD & 47 ttl yds and OSU won by 7 in OT. The Badgers are averaging 350 yards per game rushing and 8.1 yards per attempt but it was versus a FCS team and 3 rush defenses which rank #125, #78 and #87 this season. Ohio State doesn’t have a senior in their front 7 and haven’t really been tested, but they still rank #9 in the country in rush defense. In the last 3 Buckeye home games versus the Badgers, OSU has held UW to 73 yards per game under their season average with co-DC Luke Fickell being the constant. On the flip side Kenny Guiton has led OSU in the last 3 games for an inj’d Miller and has lit it up throwing for 68% with a 12-2 ratio. The concern may be the reps that Miller has taken or if Meyer is playing it coy as there’s a possibility to see both QB’s on the field at the same time. Since 2002, Ohio St is 68-5 at home they take care of business.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 37 WISCONSIN 24
#5 Stanford at Washington St
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STANFORD 201
139
25
0
••
WASHINGTON ST
-21
308
21
-3
-
Seattle. WSt was 5-1 SU in this series from ‘01-’07 but Stanford has won the L/5. LY WSt had a 385-256 yd edge. Stan got a 25 yd IR td in the 4Q but at the end WSt got to the SU9 but was sk’d on the final 2pl (24-17 loss). The Cardinal are off ASU and have Wash on deck while Wazzu is off 3 str wins and playing in their home-state for 3rd str week. The Cougs are one of the MIP tms in the country TY especially on D all’g 22 ppg and 161 ypg less than they did a yr ago. LW HC Leach put the D st’rs back in on ID’s final drive to preserve the Cougs 1st shutout s/’03 and ID HC Petrino was not happy about it. The Cardinal are off a misleading 42-28 win over ASU as they led 39-7 into the 4Q. After pulling his st’rs, HC Shaw had to put Hogan and the rest of the off st’rs back in the gm late. Dating back to LY’s Apple Cup win, WSt is 4-1 and are playing w/a lot of confidence. The Cardinal have their hands full here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: STANFORD 27 WASHINGTON ST 23