Daily Blog • June 16, 2014

Remember when Oklahoma won the National Title in 2000? Not a single OU starter lost a single start due to injury! My research has shown that teams that benefited from very few injuries, in this case 6 or less, usually have a weaker season the next year.

The bottom line is, teams that have suffered a lot of injuries the previous year will generally have a better year the next season. A lot of backups were forced to play during the injury-riddled year, gaining valuable experience and the team figures to not be so injury-prone the next year.

In a study over the last 10 years, my research shows that if a team had 32 or more starts lost to injury the prior season, they improved or had the same record the next year on 88 out of 114 occasions for an 77.2% success rate.

For 2013, 12 teams suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury in 2012 and 8 of the 12 teams either saw their record stay the same or improve. One of the best examples was Colorado St, which lost 53 starts in 2012 to injury (and suspension) and went 4-8. Last year, they were much healthier and would go 8-6 including getting their first bowl win since 2001.

Here are the teams that suffered 32 or more starts lost to injury last year, which is a record:

Most Starts Lost To Injury in 2013

Rank Team Total Starts Lost
1 Idaho 55
2 Maryland 53
3 Florida 51
3 California 51
5 Houston 50
6 Southern Miss 48
6 TCU 48
8 Bowling Green 46
9 Tulsa 44
10 Georgia St 43
11 Ole Miss 42
11 Navy 42
13 FIU 41
13 Texas 41
15 Appalachian St 40
15 Indiana 40
17 Auburn 39
17 Notre Dame 39
19 Utah St 38
19 Miami, Oh 38
19 Texas Tech 38
22 Troy 37
23 UAB 36
24 San Jose St 35
24 Ohio 35
24 Army 35
24 Rice 35
24 Connecticut 35
29 Misssissippi St 33
29 Boise St 33
29 Iowa St 33
32 USC 32
32 Purdue 32

Idaho, in Paul Petrino’s first season as head coach, had the most starts lost in the country with 55 which could have been a result of playing a very tough schedule as they were worn down playing the likes of Northern Illinois, Washington St, Fresno St, Ole Miss and Florida St. Maryland has been a hard luck team in the Randy Edsall era as they lost 37 starts to injury in 2012 and went just 4-8. Last year they improved their record to 7-6 but lost 53 starts to injury. Arguably no team in the country lost more key players to injury than the Florida Gators last year as they plummeted to a 4-8 record (11-2 in 2012) mostly due to their 51 starts lost to injury.

Now let’s look at the teams that had great fortune with very few injuries. With teams playing a 12-game schedule, I went for the magic number of 6 lost, figuring that is less than one half of one starter lost to injury during the year. Over the past 10 years only 23 of the 76 teams (30%) that had this good fortune managed to improve their record the next year.  Last year there were six teams that suffered 6 or less starts to injury in 2012 (good fortune). Four of those 6 teams of those teams saw their record get weaker including Louisiana Tech who went from 9-3 to 4-8 and Northwestern who went from 10-3 to 5-7.

Here are the teams that suffered 6 or less starts lost to injury last year:

Least Starts Lost To Injury in 2013

Rank
 Team Total Starts Lost
1
 North Texas 3
1
 Penn St 3
3
 Iowa 5
4
 Colorado 6
4
 Arizona St 6

North Texas had one of their best seasons in school history last year going 9-4 including grabbing their first bowl win since 2002. One of the main reasons for their success was they stayed remarkably healthy as they lost just 3 starts to injury.

Here is the complete list broken down by total starts lost and also by starts lost on offense and defense which can be indicators of one unit underachieving or overachieving last year.

    Off Def Total Starts
    Starts Starts Starts Lost
Rank Team Lost Lost Lost %
1 Idaho 36 19 55 20.80%
2 Maryland 27 26 53 18.50%
3 Florida 30 21 51 19.30%
3 California 12 39 51 19.30%
5 Houston 44 6 50 17.50%
6 Southern Miss 20 28 48 18.20%
6 TCU 25 23 48 18.20%
8 Bowling Green 20 26 46 14.90%
9 Tulsa 21 23 44 16.70%
10 Georgia St 27 16 43 16.30%
11 Ole Miss 25 17 42 14.70%
11 Navy 25 17 42 14.70%
13 FIU 25 16 41 15.50%
13 Texas 26 15 41 14.30%
15 Appalachian St 20 20 40 15.20%
15 Indiana 31 9 40 15.20%
17 Auburn 15 24 39 12.70%
17 Notre Dame 21 18 39 13.60%
19 Utah St 33 5 38 12.30%
19 Miami, Oh 32 6 38 14.40%
19 Texas Tech 15 23 38 13.30%
22 Troy 7 30 37 14.00%
23 UAB 13 23 36 13.60%
24 San Jose St 16 19 35 13.30%
24 Ohio 18 17 35 12.20%
24 Army 12 23 35 13.30%
24 Rice 6 29 35 11.40%
24 Connecticut 22 13 35 13.30%
29 Misssissippi St 10 23 33 8.00%
29 Boise St 19 14 33 11.50%
29 Iowa St 23 10 33 12.50%
32 USC 12 20 32 10.40%
32 Purdue 25 7 32 12.10%
34 Oregon St 11 20 31 10.80%
34 Utah 19 12 31 11.70%
34 BYU 13 18 31 10.80%
34 Cincinnati 26 5 31 10.80%
38 Air Force 14 16 30 11.40%
38 Boston College 11 19 30 10.50%
40 Texas A&M 3 26 29 10.10%
40 Rutgers 14 15 29 10.10%
42 Western Michigan 23 5 28 10.60%
42 Oklahoma 14 14 28 9.80%
44 Georgia 16 11 27 9.40%
44 Hawaii 17 10 27 10.20%
44 UTEP 17 10 27 10.20%
44 East Carolina 14 13 27 9.40%
44 Pittsburgh 20 7 27 9.40%
49 Arkansas 11 15 26 9.80%
49 UCLA 22 4 26 9.10%
49 Northwestern 10 16 26 9.80%
49 Virginia Tech 10 16 26 9.10%
49 NC State 18 8 26 9.80%
49 Georgia Tech 12 14 26 9.10%
55 Vanderbilt 14 10 24 8.40%
55 San Diego St 2 22 24 8.40%
55 UMass 12 12 24 9.10%
55 Nebraska 22 2 24 8.40%
59 UNLV 9 14 23 8.00%
59 Central Michigan 14 9 23 8.70%
59 Ohio St 6 17 23 7.50%
62 Fresno St 3 19 22 7.70%
62 Nevada 18 4 22 8.30%
62 Northern Illinois 13 9 22 7.10%
65 Alabama 8 13 21 7.30%
65 USF 10 11 21 8.00%
67 South Alabama 19 1 20 7.60%
67 LSU 11 9 20 7.00%
67 Michigan St 15 5 20 6.50%
67 Minnesota 19 1 20 7.00%
67 SMU 10 10 20 7.60%
72 Ball St 6 13 19 6.60%
72 Baylor 12 7 19 6.60%
72 Virginia 8 11 19 7.20%
75 Louisiana 1 17 18 6.30%
75 Washington St 12 6 18 6.30%
75 Oregon 18 0 18 6.30%
75 Wyoming 7 11 18 6.80%
75 Kent St 7 11 18 6.80%
75 Old Dominion 9 9 18 6.80%
75 FAU 8 10 18 6.80%
75 Miami, FL 16 2 18 6.30%
75 Wake Forest 10 8 18 6.80%
84 WKU 10 7 17 6.40%
84 Kentucky 9 8 17 6.40%
84 New Mexico 13 4 17 6.40%
84 Akron 9 8 17 6.40%
84 New Mexico St 8 9 17 6.40%
84 Georgia Southern 13 4 17 7.00%
90 Stanford 3 13 16 5.20%
91 Arizona 13 2 15 5.20%
91 Toledo 4 11 15 5.70%
91 Marshall 2 13 15 4.90%
91 UTSA 7 8 15 5.70%
95 Washington 10 4 14 4.90%
95 Buffalo 7 7 14 4.90%
95 Kansas 10 4 14 5.30%
95 Syracuse 5 9 14 4.90%
95 North Carolina 8 6 14 4.90%
100 Tennessee 6 7 13 4.90%
100 Eastern Michigan 7 6 13 4.90%
100 Wisconsin 9 4 13 4.50%
103 Louisiana Tech 8 4 12 4.50%
103 Michigan 4 8 12 4.20%
103 Memphis 1 11 12 4.50%
106 Arkansas St 8 3 11 3.80%
106 South Carolina 5 6 11 3.80%
106 Colorado St 5 6 11 3.60%
106 Temple 4 7 11 4.20%
106 Clemson 9 2 11 3.80%
111 ULM 8 2 10 3.80%
111 Texas St 8 2 10 3.80%
111 Tulane 6 4 10 3.50%
111 Middle Tenn 6 4 10 3.50%
111 Oklahoma St 7 3 10 3.50%
111 West Virginia 4 6 10 3.80%
111 UCF 3 7 10 3.50%
111 Duke 4 6 10 3.20%
111 Florida St 1 9 10 3.20%
120 Missouri 6 3 9 2.90%
120 Kansas St 7 2 9 3.10%
120 Illinois 7 2 9 3.40%
123 Louisville 6 1 7 2.40%
124 Colorado 0 6 6 2.30%
124 Arizona St 3 3 6 1.90%
126 Iowa 1 4 5 1.70%
127 North Texas 2 1 3 1.00%
127 Penn St 1 2 3 1.10%

PhilSteele.com will have a page updated weekly dedicated to starts lost again this year. We will track each team's starts lost for the 2014 season so you can see which teams are really banged up and those that have remained very healthy. We even include weekly updated start charts for each of the teams!

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