Phil Steele Blog • August 1, 2015



How did my Projected AP Top 10 & Top 25 fare vs Coaches vote?


I have had great success with my Surprise team throughout the years. That is a list of non Top 10 teams I thought were capable of winning the national title. About 10 years ago to help on this article I started trying to forecast what the AP Top 10 would be. Seven years ago I put out my first Projected AP Top 10 in February, SIX MONTHS in advance of the poll and even before spring started. In the first 6 years I have hit 56 of the 60 teams or 93.3%!! This year I projected my AP Top 10 on ESPN Insider way back on February 13th. Here is that projection from February and the coaches poll that was just released this past week.

My Projected AP Top 10 Coaches AP Top 10
1. Ohio St 1. Ohio St
2. TCU 2. TCU
3. Alabama 3. Alabama
4. Baylor 4. Baylor
5. Oregon 5. Oregon
6. Michigan St 6. Michigan St
7. USC 7. Auburn
8. Florida St 8. Florida St
9. Auburn 9. Georgia
10. Georgia 10. USC
• PERFECT 10 FOR 10 IN 2015!

I also have predicted the AP Top 25 in advance each year as well. I did that this past year on April 15th. Here is my projected teams 11-25 and what the coaches 11-25 teams are.

My Projected AP 11-25 Coaches AP 11-25
11. UCLA 11. Notre Dame
12. Ole Miss 12. Clemson
13. Notre Dame 13. LSU
14. LSU 14. UCLA
15. Clemson 15. Ole Miss
16. Arizona State 16. Arizona State
17. Georgia Tech 17. Georgia Tech
18. Wisconsin 18. Wisconsin
19. Missouri 18. Oklahoma
20. Arkansas 20. Arkansas
21. Mississippi State 21. Stanford
22. Oklahoma 22. Arizona
23. Boise State 23. Missouri
24. Tennessee 24. Boise State
25. Stanford 25. Tennessee

I am pleased to say I hit on 24 of 25 teams!!! The only miss this year is I had Miss St in the top 25 and they were #26 while I did not have Arizona in the top 25 and they were in it. I will take predicting 24 of 25 teams FOUR MONTHS in advance any time as that is a solid 96%!


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