Phil Steele Blog • August 10, 2015

 

 

Draft Day Party Hangover.

 

Unlike professional football, college football players are limited generally to 4 years of eligibility, which leads to frequent roster turnover at the collegiate level.  The elite programs in FBS football also tend to lose underclassmen early to the NFL draft.  This has been especially challenging for LSU, although the 2015 draft was less painful for Les Miles than the prior two years.

Logically, college programs with a high number of draftees, particularly those taken in the first few rounds, face the dilemma of replenishing elite level talent.  To gauge how this tends to affect teams in the upcoming year, I have researched this topic over the past 18 years to develop my “Draft Day Party Hangover” statistics.  Those of you who have purchased the magazine are likely aware that I have published my findings on page 10.

In this system, I award the following point totals to a team based upon the level of pick:

 

Two items of quick note regarding this methodology:

 

Over the past 18 years of research, this study has yielded the following findings:

Teams with 12 or more points - Weaker or same record 239 of 313 (76.4%)
Teams with 24 or more points - Weaker or same record 73 of 88 (83.0%)
Teams with 35 or more points - Weaker record 15 of 19 (78.9%)

Last year, there were 11 teams on the list of programs that had accumulated 12 or more points.  Unsurprisingly, 10 of the 11 teams had a weaker record and only one team, Ohio State, improved its record.  In 2015, the list has grown significantly to include a whopping 28 teams.

One thing I have pointed out in past seasons is that the National Champion always has a great shot at appearing on this lists, which complicates the task of defending the title.  In the past 18 years, 15 of the National Champions have earned 12 or more points in the draft the previous year. The exceptions were in 2006 (Florida, 7 pts), 2008 (Florida, 11 pts) and 2010 (Auburn, 7 pts).

Last year, Ohio State was perceived as a young team that was talented, but likely a year away from contending from the National Championship.  Although the Buckeyes were able to claim the title without suffering too much attrition to the NFL (14 players lost), they will not be as lucky next year, as the mock draft boards are already replete with names from the Ohio State roster.  Look for the Buckeyes to be at or near the top of this list in 2016.

Points Lost in the NFL Draft

TEAM

POINTS

Florida State

42

Miami (FL)

31

Florida

29

Louisville

27

Washington

26

Stanford

26

Alabama

25

Oregon

24

Missouri

24

USC

22

Clemson

19

Arizona State

17

Georgia

17

Utah

15

Texas

15

Iowa

14

Michigan State

14

Oklahoma

14

Auburn

14

Ohio State

14

Michigan

13

Mississippi State

13

West Virginia

13

LSU

13

Minnesota

12

Nebraska

12

Oregon State

12

Wisconsin

12

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