Spring Blog • March 13, 2015

WHO PLAYS THE NCAA’S TOUGHEST 2015 SCHEDULE.

 

Let the discussions begin! I’ve taken all the 2015 schedules and have ranked them based on their opponent’s records last year. The returning National Champion Ohio St Buckeyes play 4 non-conference opponents in Virginia Tech, Hawaii, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan this year. These 4 teams finished last season 7-6, 4-9, 11-3, and 8-5 for a combined 30-23 record. Add that to the record of 56-46 which is the combined total for Ohio State’s  2015  Big 10 opponents from last year giving you a total of 86-69. In the chart below you will find that OSU ranks #42. Many call this the NCAA method for strength of schedule and it’s a good starting point when comparing how tough a road your favorite team will face this season.

 

 

My 2015 toughest schedule rankings will be released in May on a blog but here is one quick example from last year on why I started my own strength of schedule decades ago. I had TCU as my most improved team in the country for 2014 and they wound up getting to TWELVE wins and nearly made the first ever playoffs! I also had Memphis as one of my most improved teams and they not only made it to Miami Beach Bowl, but also won it and finished 10-3 ranked #25 in the AP Poll. However, if you used the NCAA method you only got credit for playing two teams who were a combined 7-17 in 2013 with TCU being 4-8 and Memphis 3-9. You can find more examples and a more detailed explanation here, as printed as an ESPN Insider article.

 

 

I want to reiterate that these rankings ARE NOT mine. Below you will find that the Washington Huskies have the NCAA’s #1 toughest schedule as the 12 opponents they face this season had a combined record last year of 101-56 (64.3%). On the flipside of the NCAA method, Marshall will play the easiest schedule as their 2015 opponents had a combined record of only 54-89 (37.8%). Which Power-5 teams has the easiest schedule and which Group-5 teams has the toughest? The Duke Blue Devils have the #103 schedule and Iowa has the #101 and on the flipside BYU has the #17 schedule, Connecticut the #22 and Western Michigan the #33. Please do check below on why 32 teams made my ranked list. Without further adieu here are the rankings for THE NCAA’S 2015 TOUGHEST SCHEDULE.

 

THE 2015 TOUGHEST SCHEDULES   MORE CRITEA      
(based on the NCAA win/loss %)   (not included in the NCAA method)    
    FOE FOE FOE   Tms W/ # vs Bowl # Ranked
Rank   WINS LOSS WIN%   Win Rec Eligible Tms Faced
1 Washington 101 56 64.33% Washington 9 8 7
2 Arkansas 99 57 63.46% Arkansas 10 10 7
3 Miami, Fl 97 58 62.58% Miami, Fl 8 9 5
4 Alabama 96 58 62.34% Alabama 10 10 7
5 Kentucky 95 58 62.09% Kentucky 10 9 5
6 Purdue 97 61 61.39% Purdue 9 9 4
7 California 95 61 60.90% California 9 9 6
8 Auburn 92 60 60.53% Auburn 9 8 7
9 Michigan St 95 62 60.51% Michigan St 9 9 3
10 Texas A&M 93 61 60.39% Texas A&M 10 9 6
10 Georgia 93 61 60.39% Georgia 9 8 4
12 Virginia 94 62 60.26% Virginia 8 10 6
13 Maryland 95 63 60.13% Maryland 9 8 3
14 Kansas 93 62 60.00% Kansas 9 9 5
14 Georgia Tech 93 62 60.00% Georgia Tech 7 9 5
16 Boston College 91 62 59.48% Boston College 8 8 5
17 Iowa St 92 63 59.35% Iowa St 9 9 4
17 BYU 92 63 59.35% BYU 8 8 4
19 Utah 93 65 58.86% Utah 7 8 5
20 Minnesota 90 63 58.82% Minnesota 6 8 4
21 USC 91 65 58.33% USC 9 9 7
22 South Carolina 89 64 58.17% South Carolina 8 9 5
22 Connecticut 89 64 58.17% Connecticut 8 8 1
24 Tennessee 89 65 57.79% Tennessee 9 8 4
25 Clemson 88 65 57.52% Clemson 9 9 4
26 Texas Tech 89 66 57.42% Texas Tech 9 9 4
26 Mississippi St 89 66 57.42% Mississippi St 8 8 6
28 LSU 87 65 57.24% LSU 10 9 5
29 Vanderbilt 87 66 56.86% Vanderbilt 9 10 4
29 West Virginia 87 66 56.86% West Virginia 8 8 4
31 Michigan 88 67 56.77% Michigan 8 8 3
31 Arizona St 88 67 56.77% Arizona St 8 7 6
33 Mississippi 87 67 56.49% Mississippi 8 9 6
33 Western Michigan 87 67 56.49% Western Michigan 7 8 2
35 Utah St 88 68 56.41% Utah St 8 9 2
36 SMU 85 66 56.29% SMU 7 7 3
37 Stanford 87 68 56.13% Stanford 7 7 5
37 UNLV 87 68 56.13% UNLV 7 7 2
39 Colorado 94 74 55.95% Colorado 8 8 7
40 Florida St 85 67 55.92% Florida St 8 8 3
41 Florida 86 68 55.84% Florida 8 8 5
42 Ohio St 86 69 55.48% Ohio St 8 9 1
42 Washington St 86 69 55.48% Washington St 7 7 5
44 UTSA 84 68 55.26% UTSA 7 9 2
44 Texas 84 68 55.26% Texas 8 8 5
46 Virginia Tech 86 70 55.13% Virginia Tech 6 9 3
47 Southern Miss 83 68 54.97% Southern Miss 7 8 3
47 Louisville 83 68 54.97% Louisville 7 7 3
49 Fresno St 85 70 54.84% Fresno St 8 8 2
50 Georgia St 82 69 54.30% Georgia St 7 7 1
50 Penn St 82 69 54.30% Penn St 5 7 2
52 Northwestern 83 70 54.25% Northwestern 7 8 4
52 Pittsburgh 83 70 54.25% Pittsburgh 7 8 4
52 Illinois 83 70 54.25% Illinois 6 8 3
52 North Carolina 83 70 54.25% North Carolina 6 8 2
52 Indiana 83 70 54.25% Indiana 7 7 2
57 San Jose St 84 71 54.19% San Jose St 7 7 2
58 Arizona 82 70 53.95% Arizona 8 7 5
58 Oregon 82 70 53.95% Oregon 7 6 5
60 Louisiana Tech 81 70 53.64% Louisiana Tech 7 7 2
61 Notre Dame 82 71 53.59% Notre Dame 6 9 4
61 Wake Forest 82 71 53.59% Wake Forest 7 8 5
61 Nc State 82 71 53.59% Nc State 6 8 3
61 Rutgers 82 71 53.59% Rutgers 6 6 4
65 Air Force 83 72 53.55% Air Force 6 6 2
66 FIU 80 70 53.33% FIU 6 7 1
67 Nebraska 82 72 53.25% Nebraska 6 9 2
68 Syracuse 81 72 52.94% Syracuse 7 8 4
69 Oklahoma St 79 72 52.32% Oklahoma St 6 7 4
69 Army 79 72 52.32% Army 8 6 1
71 Florida Atlantic 77 71 52.03% Florida Atlantic 5 8 1
72 USF 79 73 51.97% USF 7 8 2
73 Missouri 78 73 51.66% Missouri 8 8 2
74 Wyoming 79 74 51.63% Wyoming 7 7 1
75 Miami, Oh 76 72 51.35% Miami, Oh 6 6 1
76 Ohio 77 73 51.33% Ohio 6 5 1
77 Troy 76 73 51.01% Troy 7 7 2
78 Oregon St 78 76 50.65% Oregon St 6 6 5
79 Idaho 74 73 50.34% Idaho 7 8 2
79 Central Michigan 74 73 50.34% Central Michigan 6 5 1
81 Middle Tennessee 76 75 50.33% Middle Tennessee 4 5 2
82 Hawaii 84 84 50.00% Hawaii 6 7 3
82 Tulane 75 75 50.00% Tulane 6 7 3
82 UCLA 76 76 50.00% UCLA 6 6 5
82 New Mexico 76 76 50.00% New Mexico 6 6 2
87 North Texas 76 77 49.67% North Texas 7 8 1
87 Boise St 76 77 49.67% Boise St 6 5 0
89 Baylor 75 76 49.67% Baylor 7 7 3
89 Tulsa 75 76 49.67% Tulsa 7 7 2
89 Oklahoma 75 76 49.67% Oklahoma 6 7 3
92 Kansas St 75 77 49.34% Kansas St 6 7 3
93 Kent St 74 77 49.01% Kent St 5 7 1
94 TCU 74 78 48.68% TCU 7 7 3
95 South Alabama 72 76 48.65% South Alabama 8 8 1
96 Wisconsin 74 79 48.37% Wisconsin 6 7 2
97 Eastern Michigan 72 78 48.00% Eastern Michigan 5 6 1
98 Rice 71 77 47.97% Rice 5 5 1
99 Bowling Green 70 77 47.62% Bowling Green 5 6 1
100 Arkansas St 70 79 46.98% Arkansas St 6 7 2
101 Iowa 65 74 46.76% Iowa 4 6 2
102 WKU 70 80 46.67% WKU 4 6 2
103 Northern Illinois 70 81 46.36% Northern Illinois 5 6 1
103 Duke 70 81 46.36% Duke 4 6 1
105 Temple 69 80 46.31% Temple 6 6 2
106 New Mexico St 68 79 46.26% New Mexico St 7 7 1
106 Texas St 68 79 46.26% Texas St 5 6 1
108 Ball St 70 82 46.05% Ball St 6 7 1
109 Cincinnati 69 81 46.00% Cincinnati 5 7 1
110 Old Dominion 68 80 45.95% Old Dominion 5 5 1
111 Houston 68 81 45.64% Houston 6 6 2
112 ULM 73 88 45.34% ULM 7 7 2
113 Buffalo 68 82 45.33% Buffalo 6 6 0
114 San Diego St 64 78 45.07% San Diego St 4 6 0
115 East Carolina 67 82 44.97% East Carolina 6 7 0
116 Colorado St 69 85 44.81% Colorado St 5 6 1
117 Charlotte 65 81 44.52% Charlotte 5 6 1
118 Toledo 67 84 44.37% Toledo 6 6 0
119 Appalachian St 65 82 44.22% Appalachian St 4 6 1
120 Navy 65 84 43.62% Navy 5 5 2
121 Memphis 65 85 43.33% Memphis 5 6 1
122 UCF 64 85 42.95% UCF 5 6 1
123 Nevada 65 87 42.76% Nevada 4 5 2
124 UL Lafayette 62 86 41.89% UL Lafayette 4 5 0
125 Georgia Southern 61 86 41.50% Georgia Southern 5 6 1
126 UMass 58 88 39.73% UMass 3 4 1
127 Akron 58 90 39.19% Akron 4 6 1
128 UTEP 56 91 38.10% UTEP 3 4 0
129 Marshall 54 89 37.76% Marshall 1 4 0

 

One note about the last category. I took the final AP Top 25 poll from last year and then looked at two lists. The first list was “Others receiving votes” and then I looked at all teams that were not in the Final Top 25 but were in the AP Top 25 for 4 weeks or more during the year. If a team was on BOTH those lists I included them as being a ranked team for the year. Those teams were #26 Notre Dame (28 votes) and 10 weeks in the AP Top 25, #27 Stanford (27 votes, 7 weeks ranked), #28 Nebraska (22 votes, 11 weeks ranked), #30 Duke (18 votes, 4 weeks ranked), #31 LSU (12 votes, 10 weeks ranked), #35 Oklahoma (7 votes, 11 weeks ranked) and #36 Texas A&M (7 votes, 8 weeks ranked). I counted those 7 along with the other top 25. Those that just missed were South Carolina, Okla St and East Carolina who were each ranked for 4 weeks or more but did not receive ANY votes at the end of the year. Air Force, Utah St, Arkansas, Minnesota (ranked 1 week), Northern Illinois and Colorado St (ranked 2 weeks) all received some votes in the final poll but most were not ranked even once during the year.

 

Who plays the most of these 32 ranked teams this year? How about Colorado, USC, Washington, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas who each play SEVEN! (more than half of their opponents!) Who plays the fewest of these ranked teams? Well, there are 40 teams that play 1 ranked team or less and 38 of them are in non Power 5 conferences. The only two teams who play in a Power 5 conference that meet this criteria are Ohio State and Duke who play ONE each!

 

There are 5 teams that face TEN teams that finished with a winning record last year. Those teams are Alabama, Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and Kentucky. There are just 13 teams that face 4 or less teams that had a winning record last year and the only ones of those in the Power 5 conferences are Iowa and Duke who face 4 apiece. Marshall plays just 1.

 

There are just 4 teams that face TEN teams that were bowl eligible last year (6 or more wins) and those teams are Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Virginia. If a team finished 6-6 or 6-7 they would be on this list and not on the list of teams with a winning record. The teams that face the fewest teams that were bowl eligible last year are Marshall, UTEP and UMass who face 4 each.