Phil Steele Blog • November 19, 2015

 

CollegeFootballGeek.com’s Daily Fantasy Value Plays of the Week: DraftKings, Week 12

By Todd DeVries & Kevin Mount, CollegeFootballGeek.com


DraftKings has released their Daily Fantasy college football salaries for the week, and the experts at CollegeFootballGeek.com have hunkered down and scoured all of the data to find the best Value Plays on the docket. 

These Value Plays are comprised of players poised to out-produce their DraftKings salaries this week.  These are the “diamonds in the rough” that your DFS competitors may overlook.  They are the difference-makers you need in your lineup to win one of the big DFS contests!

For your convenience, we have broken the picks down by DraftKings contest game set. Best of luck this week!

(For more detailed Daily Fantasy analysis, picks, player news, player rankings, and stat breakdowns, check out CollegeFootballGeek.com.  Learn how to SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE!)



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VALUE PLAYS: SATURDAY EARLY SLATE


QUARTERBACKS


Perry Hills, Maryland QB ($6500) vs. Indiana:
Let’s start this off by saying that Hills is not a very good QB and can’t throw very well at all. He is basically a running back playing under center. Hills does hold value this week as he will be facing the worst pass defense in all of college football. The Hoosiers are allowing 341 yards passing per game and can make the worst QB look like Joe Montana. Hills has big upside and appears to be a solid #2 QB option this week. Expect this Terrapin to run and throw all over the Hoosiers in Week Twelve.


Alex McGough, FIU QB ($5400) vs. Western Kentucky:
McGough is coming off a miserable performance against Marshall last week and may be over looked by DFS because of it. He has actually been pretty good this year and has the ability to drop 25 DK points this week against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers pass defense is ranked 97th in the country and could yield some big plays to McGough this week. Look for this Golden Panther to hit value this week and make for a sneaky punt play against Western Kentucky.


RUNNING BACKS


LeShun Daniels Jr, Iowa RB ($5400) vs. Purdue:
DFS players were amped to see Jordan Canzeri return from injury last week against Minnesota, but Daniels stole the show with 195 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns. The most impressive aspect of his stat line was the 26 carries he received with Canzeri back in the fold. The Hawkeyes have fed their top back this season and Daniels could carry that distinction again this week versus Purdue. Daniels could post another huge stat line with a similar workload of the last two games. This bruiser appears to be a good bet to top the 100-yard mark and find the end zone a couple of times against Purdue.


Kalen Ballage, Arizona State RB ($5200) vs. Arizona:
Ballage has become much more involved in the Arizona State offense over the last three games and is averaging 20 DK points per game over that time frame. He could easily clear the 20 point mark this week against a bad Arizona rush defense that ranks 86th in the country this season. There could be a ton of points scored in this rivalry game and Ballage could be an excellent value play. Look for Ballage to be a rock solid GPP option this week. He could be a key part of some winning lineups this week.


Alex Gardner, FIU RB ($4700) vs. Western Kentucky:
Gardner is coming off a horrific performance last week against Marshall, but has been remarkably consistent this season. He was averaging 24.33 DK points per game over the previous six games before last week’s debacle. He has a nice matchup against a Western Kentucky rush defense that ranks 80th in the country. Expect Gardner to find plenty of holes to run through and likely top the 100-yard mark this week. He could easily reach 4X to 5X value this week and afford DFS players some much needed salary relief.



WIDE RECEIVERS


Thomas Owens, FIU WR ($4000) vs. Western Kentucky:
There is a trend developing here with the top FIU skill players. They are all priced very low and all could be great value plays this week versus Western Kentucky. Owens is averaging 18.3 DK points per game on the season and has shown the ability to post monster stat lines against weak defenses. He has 10 catch potential this week and could easily reach 3-4X value against the Hilltoppers. Expect Owens to be a very nice punt play in Week Twelve.


Michael Thomas, Ohio State WR ($5000) vs. Michigan State:
Thomas has scored a receiving touchdown in the last four games and could easily make it five in a row against Michigan State this week. The Spartans pass defense has struggled mightily this season and comes in ranked 86th in the country. Thomas looks to be the favorite target of JT Barrett and that should continue this week in this Big 10 showdown. Look for Thomas to be targeted often this week and likely hit the 100-yard mark. He looks like a great play in both cash and GPP play this week.


Robby Anderson, Temple WR ($4500) vs. Memphis:
Anderson is the top receiver for Temple this year and could have one of his better fantasy games this week against Memphis. The Tigers pass defense has been abysmal this season, ranking 118th in the country and allowing 290 yards passing per game. This Owl could soar this week and possibly find the end zone once or twice. He looks to be a good bet to exceed value and make for a sneaky GPP option. Don’t sleep on this Owl in Week Twelve.  


Malachi Dupre, LSU WR ($4300) vs. Ole Miss:
Dupre is averaging 20.07 DK points per game over the last four games and is developing into a solid fantasy option. He could have another big outing against an Ole Miss pass defense that ranks 92nd in the country and has given up plenty of big plays this season. Dupre could beat the Rebels secondary for a deep bomb or two this week and easily reach 3 or 4X value. This Tiger could be a great value play this week and could make for a nice GPP option. Expect Dupre to remain hot this week and torch the Rebels.




VALUE PLAYS: SATURDAY LATE SLATE


QUARTERBACKS


Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State QB ($6600) vs. Baylor:
Rudolph has thrown for over 300 yards in three of the last four games and will likely make it four of five against Baylor. This is a huge game for the Cowboys and they will likely have to throw the ball early and often to keep pace with the vaunted Baylor offense. There should be tons of points scored in this Big 12 showdown and Rudolph could account for a bunch of those yards and points. Expect this Cowboy to approach 400 yards passing and likely add three or four touchdown throws against the Bears.


Kenny Potter, San Jose State QB ($5700) vs. Hawaii:
Potter ran for 116 yards and dropped 34.04 DK points on Nevada last week. He could duplicate those numbers this week against Hawaii. While the huge rushing total may have been an aberration, Potter could still put up big numbers against a Hawaii squad that ranks 105th in total defense. Look for Potter to make enough plays to easily pay off on his low price this week. This Spartan could be a solid GPP target and a #2 QB on DK in Week Twelve.


RUNNING BACKS


Chris Swain, Navy RB ($5300) vs. Tulsa:
Swain is averaging 19 carries per game over the last three contests and could do plenty of damage against Tulsa with that type of workload. The Tulsa rush defense is ranked 116th in the country and has surrendered 27 rushing touchdowns on the season. The high powered Navy rushing attack could run all over Tulsa this week and Swain is a good bet to be heavily involved. He does lose touchdown opportunities to QB Keenan Reynolds, but there could be more than enough to go around versus the Golden Hurricane. Swain is in the perfect spot to be a great GPP option this week.


Devin Chafin, Baylor RB ($4400) vs. Oklahoma State:
The TD vulture is back! Chafin had three rushing touchdowns last week versus Oklahoma and looks to be the main option in the red zone. He has received double digit carries in the last two games and could see another steady workload against the Cowboys. Chafin could be a sneaky GPP option this week with nice upside considering his nose for the end zone. Expect this Bear to cross the goal line this week against Oklahoma State.


Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt RB ($4400) vs. Texas A&M:
Webb is one of the few true work horse running backs left in college football, averaging 23 carries per game this season. He could role up big numbers this week against a Texas A&M defense that ranks 113th in the country against the run. Expect Webb to see all the carries that he can handle and likely crack the 100-yard mark against the Aggies. He appears to be way under priced this week and DFS players should take advantage of the price snafu.


Chase Price, San Diego State RB ($4300) vs. UNLV:
Price is overshadowed by fellow RB Donnel Pumphrey, but he has been very productive over the last four games. He has scored five rushing touchdowns over the time period and is also averaging 15 carries per game. The matchup with UNLV is very attractive with the Rebels ranking 107th against the run and having allowed 25 rushing touchdowns on the year. Price could be an under the radar play that could go a long way to taking down a GPP in Week Twelve.


WIDE RECEIVERS


Dominique Reed, Arkansas WR ($3800) vs. Mississippi State:
Reed has snagged five receiving touchdowns in the last four games and has developed into a legitimate deep threat for Arkansas. He is averaging 20.27 DK points per game over the last four contests and is still only priced $3800 this week.  DFS players might be wise to ride the hot hand in Reed until he cools off. Look for this Razorback to find the end zone again this week and pay off nicely on his price.


Fred Ross, Mississippi State WR ($4600) vs. Arkansas:
Ross has gone over 100 yard receiving in each of the last two games and also has 19 receptions. He has a great matchup with an Arkansas defense that ranks 114th against the pass and may have no answer for Ross and Dak Prescott. He could make for a solid GPP option on the late slate. Expect this Bulldog to top the 100-yard mark and possibly add a score against the Razorbacks.


Teddy Veal, Tulane WR ($4100) vs. SMU:
Veal went over 100 yards receiving for the first time this season against Army last week and could make it two in a row this week versus SMU. The Mustangs defense is horrible and could allow Veal to find plenty of open space. He is somewhat constrained by the bad offense that he plays in, but Veal could still easily reach value and be a nice punt play on the late slate.  


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