Phil Steele Blog • March 31, 2016

 

How did teams fare in 2015 against Las Vegas expectations?

 

Notes:

• Only Two teams were not a underdog in any of their games this year: Boise St (13)
& Ohio St (12).

• Only one team was an underdog in every one of their FBS games this year: Charlotte (11)

• The biggest overachievers (won more games than they were favored to win) were: Northwestern (favored to win 6 games, won 10), USF (favored to win 4 games, won 8).

• The biggest underachievers were (lost more games than they were favored to win) were: Georgia Tech (favored to win 9 games, won 3), UCF (favored to win 4 games, won 0), Boise St (favored to win 13 games, won 9).

Team-By-Team Listing

  2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 Fav-Wins
  Games Wins as Upset Games Upset Lost as Actual Actual Net
Team Favored Favorite Losses Underdog Wins Underdog Wins Losses Diff
Air Force 8 4 3 6 4 2 8 6 0
Akron 5 4 1 8 4 4 8 5 3
Alabama 14 7 7 1 1 0 14 1 0
Appalachian St 12 6 6 1 0 1 11 2 -1
Arizona 7 3 4 6 2 4 7 6 0
Arizona St 6 3 3 7 3 4 6 7 0
Arkansas 8 4 4 4 4 0 8 5 0
Arkansas St 8 6 2 5 2 3 9 4 1
Army 3 0 3 7 5 2 2 10 -1
Auburn 8 2 6 5 1 4 7 6 -1
Ball St 4 2 2 8 2 6 3 9 -1
Baylor 10 4 6 2 1 1 10 3 0
Boise St 13 7 6 0 0 0 9 4 -4
Boston College 5 1 4 7 3 3 3 9 -2
Bowling Green   11 8 3 3 1 1 10 4 -1
Buffalo 5 1 4 7 4 3 5 7 0
BYU 8 5 3 5 3 2 9 4 1
California 8 5 3 5 1 4 8 5 0
Central Michigan 6 4 2 7 5 2 7 6 1
Charlotte 0 0 0 11 3 6 2 10 2
Cincinnati 7 2 5 6 4 2 7 6 0
Clemson 13 6 6 2 2 0 14 1 1
Colorado 3 2 1 9 5 4 4 9 1
Colorado St 7 4 3 6 2 3 7 6 0
Connecticut 3 0 3 10 5 5 6 7 3
Duke 8 4 4 5 3 2 8 5 0
East Carolina 8 2 6 4 3 1 5 7 -3
Eastern Michigan 1 0 1 11 4 7 1 11 0
FAU 5 0 4 7 4 3 3 9 -2
FIU 5 2 1 7 3 4 5 7 0
Florida 8 5 3 4 2 2 10 4 2
Florida St 12 7 5 1 1 0 10 3 -2
Fresno St 1 1 0 11 3 8 3 9 2
Georgia 10 4 6 2 1 1 10 3 0
Georgia Southern 8 6 2 5 3 2 9 4 1
Georgia St 3 1 2 10 7 2 6 7 3
Georgia Tech 9 2 7 3 1 2 3 9 -6
Hawaii 4 0 4 9 3 6 3 10 -1
Houston 11 6 5 3 3 0 13 1 2
Idaho 3 1 2 9 5 4 4 8 1
Illinois 4 3 1 8 2 6 5 7 1
Indiana 7 4 3 6 3 3 6 7 -1
Iowa 11 6 5 3 2 1 12 2 1
Iowa St 2 2 0 10 5 5 3 9 1
Kansas 1 0 1 11 3 8 0 12 -1
Kansas St 5 2 3 8 4 4 6 7 1
Kent St 2 1 1 10 3 6 3 9 1
Kentucky 4 2 2 8 1 7 5 7 1
Louisiana 7 2 4 5 2 3 4 8 -3
Louisiana Tech 11 6 5 2 1 1 9 4 -2
Louisville 8 4 4 5 3 2 8 5 0
LSU 9 5 4 2 0 2 9 3 0
Marshall 11 7 3 2 0 1 10 3 -1
Maryland 4 2 2 8 5 3 3 9 -1
Massachusetts 5 2 3 7 2 5 3 9 -2
Memphis 10 4 5 3 2 1 9 4 -1
Miami, Fl 6 4 1 7 4 3 8 5 2
Miami, Oh 2 2 0 10 5 5 3 9 1
Michigan 11 7 4 1 0 1 10 3 -1
Michigan St 11 3 8 3 2 1 12 2 1
Middle Tennessee 8 5 2 5 2 3 7 6 -1
Minnesota 7 3 4 6 4 2 6 7 -1
Mississippi St 7 5 2 6 3 3 9 4 2
Missouri 5 1 4 7 2 5 5 7 0
Navy 11 8 3 2 1 1 11 2 0
NC State 8 6 2 5 0 5 7 6 -1
Nebraska 8 2 6 4 3 1 6 7 -2
Nevada 7 4 3 6 5 1 7 6 0
New Mexico 5 2 3 8 5 3 7 6 2
New Mexico St 2 0 2 10 5 4 3 9 1
North Carolina 11 7 4 3 1 2 11 3 0
North Texas 1 0 1 11 4 7 1 11 0
Northern Illinois 9 6 3 5 3 2 8 6 -1
Northwestern 6 4 2 7 4 3 10 3 4
Notre Dame 9 5 4 4 3 1 10 3 1
Ohio 8 5 3 5 4 1 8 5 0
Ohio St 12 5 7 0 0 0 12 1 0
Oklahoma 11 7 4 1 1 0 11 2 0
Oklahoma St 8 3 5 3 2 1 10 3 2
Old Dominion 4 1 3 8 2 6 5 7 1
Ole Miss 12 8 4 1 1 0 10 3 -2
Oregon 9 3 6 4 4 0 9 4 0
Oregon St 3 1 2 9 2 7 2 10 -1
Penn St 8 4 4 5 0 5 7 6 -1
Pittsburgh 6 2 4 7 4 3 8 5 2
Purdue 1 1 0 11 5 6 2 10 1
Rice 5 3 1 7 1 5 5 7 0
Rutgers 5 2 3 7 2 5 4 8 -1
San Diego St 9 5 4 5 3 2 11 3 2
San Jose St 7 6 1 6 2 4 6 7 -1
SMU 3 2 1 9 3 6 2 10 -1
South Alabama 3 1 2 9 3 6 5 7 2
South Carolina 5 3 2 7 3 4 3 9 -2
Southern Miss 7 6 1 7 4 3 9 5 2
Stanford 13 9 4 1 1 0 12 2 -1
Syracuse 3 2 1 9 6 3 4 8 1
TCU 11 5 6 2 2 0 11 2 0
Temple 8 4 4 6 5 1 10 4 2
Tennessee 9 6 3 2 2 0 9 4 0
Texas 4 2 2 6 3 3 5 7 1
Texas A&M 8 4 4 4 0 4 8 5 0
Texas St 6 3 3 6 0 6 3 9 -3
Texas Tech 5 3 2 8 4 4 7 6 2
Toledo 9 6 3 3 3 0 10 2 1
Troy 6 3 3 6 4 2 4 8 -2
Tulane 1 1 0 11 5 6 3 9 2
Tulsa 5 3 2 8 5 3 6 7 1
UCF 4 0 4 8 2 6 0 12 -4
UCLA 10 4 6 2 0 2 8 5 -2
ULM 2 1 1 10 4 6 2 11 0
UNLV 4 2 2 8 3 5 3 9 -1
USC 11 6 5 3 0 3 8 6 -3
USF 4 4 0 9 6 3 8 5 4
Utah 9 4 5 3 2 1 10 3 1
Utah St 9 3 6 4 2 2 6 7 -3
UTEP 2 0 1 10 5 5 5 7 3
UTSA 5 2 3 7 3 4 3 9 -2
Vanderbilt 2 1 1 10 6 4 4 8 2
Virginia 3 1 2 9 7 2 4 8 1
Virginia Tech 9 4 5 4 2 2 7 6 -2
Wake Forest 2 1 1 10 5 5 3 9 1
Washington 8 6 2 5 2 3 7 6 -1
Washington St 6 4 2 7 6 1 9 4 3
West Virginia 10 5 5 3 0 3 8 5 -2
Western Michigan 7 3 4 6 4 2 8 5 1
Wisconsin 10 5 5 3 2 1 10 3 0
WKU 11 8 3 3 1 2 12 2 1
Wyoming 2 0 2 10 6 4 2 10 0

Sorted By Net (Number of Games Won-Number of Times Favored)

  2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 Fav-Wins
  Games Wins as Upset Games Upset Lost as Actual Actual Net
Team Favored Favorite Losses Underdog Wins Underdog Wins Losses Diff
Northwestern 6 4 2 7 4 3 10 3 4
USF 4 4 0 9 6 3 8 5 4
Washington St 6 4 2 7 6 1 9 4 3
Akron 5 4 1 8 4 4 8 5 3
Connecticut 3 0 3 10 5 5 6 7 3
Georgia St 3 1 2 10 7 2 6 7 3
UTEP 2 0 1 10 5 5 5 7 3
Houston 11 6 5 3 3 0 13 1 2
San Diego St 9 5 4 5 3 2 11 3 2
Florida 8 5 3 4 2 2 10 4 2
Oklahoma St 8 3 5 3 2 1 10 3 2
Temple 8 4 4 6 5 1 10 4 2
Mississippi St 7 5 2 6 3 3 9 4 2
Southern Miss 7 6 1 7 4 3 9 5 2
Miami, Fl 6 4 1 7 4 3 8 5 2
Pittsburgh 6 2 4 7 4 3 8 5 2
New Mexico 5 2 3 8 5 3 7 6 2
Texas Tech 5 3 2 8 4 4 7 6 2
South Alabama 3 1 2 9 3 6 5 7 2
Vanderbilt 2 1 1 10 6 4 4 8 2
Fresno St 1 1 0 11 3 8 3 9 2
Tulane 1 1 0 11 5 6 3 9 2
Charlotte 0 0 0 11 3 6 2 10 2
Clemson 13 6 6 2 2 0 14 1 1
Iowa 11 6 5 3 2 1 12 2 1
Michigan St 11 3 8 3 2 1 12 2 1
WKU 11 8 3 3 1 2 12 2 1
Notre Dame 9 5 4 4 3 1 10 3 1
Toledo 9 6 3 3 3 0 10 2 1
Utah 9 4 5 3 2 1 10 3 1
Arkansas St 8 6 2 5 2 3 9 4 1
BYU 8 5 3 5 3 2 9 4 1
Georgia Southern 8 6 2 5 3 2 9 4 1
Western Michigan 7 3 4 6 4 2 8 5 1
Central Michigan 6 4 2 7 5 2 7 6 1
Kansas St 5 2 3 8 4 4 6 7 1
Tulsa 5 3 2 8 5 3 6 7 1
Illinois 4 3 1 8 2 6 5 7 1
Kentucky 4 2 2 8 1 7 5 7 1
Old Dominion 4 1 3 8 2 6 5 7 1
Texas 4 2 2 6 3 3 5 7 1
Colorado 3 2 1 9 5 4 4 9 1
Idaho 3 1 2 9 5 4 4 8 1
Syracuse 3 2 1 9 6 3 4 8 1
Virginia 3 1 2 9 7 2 4 8 1
Iowa St 2 2 0 10 5 5 3 9 1
Kent St 2 1 1 10 3 6 3 9 1
Miami, Oh 2 2 0 10 5 5 3 9 1
New Mexico St 2 0 2 10 5 4 3 9 1
Wake Forest 2 1 1 10 5 5 3 9 1
Purdue 1 1 0 11 5 6 2 10 1
Alabama 14 7 7 1 1 0 14 1 0
Ohio St 12 5 7 0 0 0 12 1 0
Navy 11 8 3 2 1 1 11 2 0
North Carolina 11 7 4 3 1 2 11 3 0
Oklahoma 11 7 4 1 1 0 11 2 0
TCU 11 5 6 2 2 0 11 2 0
Baylor 10 4 6 2 1 1 10 3 0
Georgia 10 4 6 2 1 1 10 3 0
Wisconsin 10 5 5 3 2 1 10 3 0
LSU 9 5 4 2 0 2 9 3 0
Oregon 9 3 6 4 4 0 9 4 0
Tennessee 9 6 3 2 2 0 9 4 0
Air Force 8 4 3 6 4 2 8 6 0
Arkansas 8 4 4 4 4 0 8 5 0
California 8 5 3 5 1 4 8 5 0
Duke 8 4 4 5 3 2 8 5 0
Louisville 8 4 4 5 3 2 8 5 0
Ohio 8 5 3 5 4 1 8 5 0
Texas A&M 8 4 4 4 0 4 8 5 0
Arizona 7 3 4 6 2 4 7 6 0
Cincinnati 7 2 5 6 4 2 7 6 0
Colorado St 7 4 3 6 2 3 7 6 0
Nevada 7 4 3 6 5 1 7 6 0
Arizona St 6 3 3 7 3 4 6 7 0
Buffalo 5 1 4 7 4 3 5 7 0
FIU 5 2 1 7 3 4 5 7 0
Missouri 5 1 4 7 2 5 5 7 0
Rice 5 3 1 7 1 5 5 7 0
ULM 2 1 1 10 4 6 2 11 0
Wyoming 2 0 2 10 6 4 2 10 0
Eastern Michigan 1 0 1 11 4 7 1 11 0
North Texas 1 0 1 11 4 7 1 11 0
Stanford 13 9 4 1 1 0 12 2 -1
Appalachian St 12 6 6 1 0 1 11 2 -1
Bowling Green   11 8 3 3 1 1 10 4 -1
Marshall 11 7 3 2 0 1 10 3 -1
Michigan 11 7 4 1 0 1 10 3 -1
Memphis 10 4 5 3 2 1 9 4 -1
Northern Illinois 9 6 3 5 3 2 8 6 -1
Auburn 8 2 6 5 1 4 7 6 -1
Middle Tennessee 8 5 2 5 2 3 7 6 -1
NC State 8 6 2 5 0 5 7 6 -1
Penn St 8 4 4 5 0 5 7 6 -1
Washington 8 6 2 5 2 3 7 6 -1
Indiana 7 4 3 6 3 3 6 7 -1
Minnesota 7 3 4 6 4 2 6 7 -1
San Jose St 7 6 1 6 2 4 6 7 -1
Rutgers 5 2 3 7 2 5 4 8 -1
Ball St 4 2 2 8 2 6 3 9 -1
Hawaii 4 0 4 9 3 6 3 10 -1
Maryland 4 2 2 8 5 3 3 9 -1
UNLV 4 2 2 8 3 5 3 9 -1
Army 3 0 3 7 5 2 2 10 -1
Oregon St 3 1 2 9 2 7 2 10 -1
SMU 3 2 1 9 3 6 2 10 -1
Kansas 1 0 1 11 3 8 0 12 -1
Florida St 12 7 5 1 1 0 10 3 -2
Ole Miss 12 8 4 1 1 0 10 3 -2
Louisiana Tech 11 6 5 2 1 1 9 4 -2
UCLA 10 4 6 2 0 2 8 5 -2
West Virginia 10 5 5 3 0 3 8 5 -2
Virginia Tech 9 4 5 4 2 2 7 6 -2
Nebraska 8 2 6 4 3 1 6 7 -2
Troy 6 3 3 6 4 2 4 8 -2
Boston College 5 1 4 7 3 3 3 9 -2
FAU 5 0 4 7 4 3 3 9 -2
Massachusetts 5 2 3 7 2 5 3 9 -2
South Carolina 5 3 2 7 3 4 3 9 -2
UTSA 5 2 3 7 3 4 3 9 -2
USC 11 6 5 3 0 3 8 6 -3
Utah St 9 3 6 4 2 2 6 7 -3
East Carolina 8 2 6 4 3 1 5 7 -3
Louisiana 7 2 4 5 2 3 4 8 -3
Texas St 6 3 3 6 0 6 3 9 -3
Boise St 13 7 6 0 0 0 9 4 -4
UCF 4 0 4 8 2 6 0 12 -4
Georgia Tech 9 2 7 3 1 2 3 9 -6