Phil Steele Blog • May 13, 2017

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Toughest Opponent Records for 2017.

 

On March 1st, the Sun Belt released its 2017 football schedule.  Now that all the conference slates are out, the yearly debate can begin anew: Which team plays the toughest schedule?

 

There are many ways to assess schedule strength.  The most commonly used method is to combine opponents’ records from the previous season.  By this metric, the toughest 2017 schedule belongs to the UMass Minutemen, whose opponents won 65.2% of their games in 2016.  They are followed by LSU (62.8%) and East Carolina (62.4%).  According to this measure, the easiest schedule belongs to Miami, Ohio (34.0%).  Ohio (36.7%) and Hawaii (40.3%) follow the Redhawks along the path of least resistance.

 

I want to remind you that this is the NCAA’s method, not mine.  Prior to last year, this method said that Clemson was facing the 108th most challenging schedule as their opponents won only 45.3% of their 2015 games.  My method said otherwise.  I had Clemson’s schedule ranked 47 spots higher and 10 of the 12 Tigers’ opponents went on to play in bowl games.  It’s safe to say there weren’t 107 schedules tougher than Clemson’s.

 

There are other ways to approximate schedule strength.  Who plays the most teams that had winning records last year?  That honor belongs to the Duke Blue Devils, who will tussle with a whopping ELEVEN teams who won more games than they lost a year ago.  On the other side of that spectrum, Louisiana Tech, Miami (OH), and Ohio each face only two such teams in 2017.

 

How about who faces the most teams who made the postseason in 2016?  For purposes of this article, we’ll count the 80 FBS bowl participants, the 24 FCS playoff teams, and Grambling State and NC Central, who played in the Celebration Bowl.  Here, Duke is joined by Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Syracuse at facing 11 teams fresh off a postseason appearance.  Miami, Ohio is the ONLY team in the country who will face fewer than four such teams in 2017 (3).

 

Opponents who finished last year in the Top 25?  Arizona State wins this scheduling bragging right, boasting six teams that were ranked at the end of last year. Interestingly, they do not face any other teams that made it to a bowl. Florida State, Syracuse, UCLA, and Washington State are right behind the Sun Devils with five.

 

Combining methods can offer useful insight as well.  For example, Louisiana Tech played seven opponents who made the postseason.  However, only TWO of them finished the year with a winning record!

 

Here is the complete list of all 130 FBS teams including Coastal Carolina, which is eligible for the Sun Belt title this year, and UAB, which returns to CUSA after a two year hiatus from football.

FOE FOE FOE Ranked Tms W/ Foes
Rank Team WINS LOSS WIN% Tm's Win Rec in Bowl
1 Massachusetts 101 54 65.16% 2 9 9
2 LSU 98 58 62.82% 4 9 10
3 East Carolina 98 59 62.42% 3 8 9
4 South Carolina 98 61 61.64% 3 10 11
5 Tulane 94 59 61.44% 2 8 8
6 Syracuse 95 60 61.29% 5 10 11
7 Fresno St 96 61 61.15% 3 7 8
8 Georgia Tech 95 61 60.90% 4 9 10
9 Duke 94 61 60.65% 3 11 11
9 Vanderbilt 94 61 60.65% 3 8 9
11 Tulsa 93 62 60.00% 2 8 9
12 Notre Dame 94 63 59.87% 3 10 11
13 Mississippi St 92 62 59.74% 3 10 10
14 Illinois 92 63 59.35% 3 8 9
15 Florida 82 57 58.99% 4 8 9
16 Michigan St 91 64 58.71% 4 7 9
16 UCLA 91 64 58.71% 5 7 8
18 Clemson 90 64 58.44% 4 9 10
19 Texas Tech 89 64 58.17% 3 7 8
19 Auburn 89 64 58.17% 3 7 7
21 Utah 88 64 57.89% 4 7 7
22 Virginia Tech 88 65 57.52% 3 8 8
22 Virginia 88 65 57.52% 3 8 9
24 Georgia St 86 64 57.33% 1 7 6
25 Washington St 86 65 56.95% 5 6 6
26 Texas A&M 87 66 56.86% 4 6 9
26 ULM 87 66 56.86% 2 8 9
28 Florida St 88 67 56.77% 5 8 8
28 Mississippi 88 67 56.77% 3 7 10
28 Utah St 88 67 56.77% 1 8 9
31 Pittsburgh 89 68 56.69% 4 8 8
32 Oregon St 86 66 56.58% 4 7 7
33 Air Force 87 67 56.49% 2 8 8
34 Rice 80 62 56.34% 1 7 9
35 California 85 67 55.92% 4 7 7
36 Arizona St 85 68 55.56% 6 6 6
36 Maryland 85 68 55.56% 4 6 8
36 Georgia 85 68 55.56% 3 7 10
39 Purdue 86 69 55.48% 3 8 9
39 Colorado St 86 69 55.48% 2 6 7
41 Iowa St 83 67 55.33% 3 6 7
42 Michigan 85 69 55.19% 4 6 8
43 Oregon 83 68 54.97% 3 7 6
44 Rutgers 84 69 54.90% 4 6 8
44 Tennessee 84 69 54.90% 3 7 9
46 Kansas 83 69 54.61% 3 6 8
46 Texas 83 69 54.61% 4 6 8
46 Wake Forest 83 69 54.61% 3 7 7
49 Arkansas 82 69 54.30% 3 5 7
50 Nc State 83 70 54.25% 3 7 8
51 Oklahoma St 82 70 53.95% 2 6 8
51 Texas St 82 70 53.95% 1 6 7
53 Boise St 83 71 53.90% 1 8 8
54 Alabama 81 70 53.64% 4 8 9
55 Nebraska 82 71 53.59% 3 7 7
56 Iowa 83 72 53.55% 3 7 8
57 Miami, Fl 80 70 53.33% 2 7 7
58 UNLV 81 71 53.29% 2 6 7
58 Northern Illinois 81 71 53.29% 2 7 7
58 New Mexico St 81 71 53.29% 0 6 8
58 Navy 81 71 53.29% 0 6 7
62 Charlotte 74 65 53.24% 0 7 7
63 USC 80 71 52.98% 4 5 5
64 Ohio St 81 72 52.94% 3 6 8
65 Georgia Southern 80 72 52.63% 1 6 8
66 Boston College 81 73 52.60% 4 6 7
67 San Jose St 87 79 52.41% 3 7 8
68 Kansas St 79 72 52.32% 3 5 7
68 Stanford 79 72 52.32% 4 5 5
68 North Carolina 79 72 52.32% 3 7 7
71 Nevada 80 73 52.29% 1 7 8
71 Florida Atlantic 80 73 52.29% 1 6 7
73 UTEP 74 68 52.11% 1 6 8
74 Missouri 79 73 51.97% 3 7 9
74 Kentucky 79 73 51.97% 3 6 9
76 Ball St 72 67 51.80% 1 4 6
77 Baylor 77 72 51.68% 3 5 6
77 Arizona 77 72 51.68% 3 5 5
77 TCU 77 72 51.68% 3 6 6
77 Louisiana 77 72 51.68% 0 6 6
81 Toledo 78 73 51.66% 2 5 6
81 UCF 78 73 51.66% 1 6 6
83 Penn St 78 74 51.32% 2 6 8
83 Temple 78 74 51.32% 1 6 7
85 Army West Point 77 74 50.99% 1 6 6
86 Oklahoma 76 74 50.67% 3 5 6
86 South Alabama 76 74 50.67% 1 5 6
88 SMU 77 75 50.66% 0 5 8
88 New Mexico 77 75 50.66% 1 7 7
88 Houston 77 75 50.66% 1 5 6
91 Colorado 75 74 50.34% 3 6 5
91 Idaho 75 74 50.34% 1 4 5
93 Kent St 77 76 50.33% 3 4 6
94 Wisconsin 76 76 50.00% 1 6 8
94 Northwestern 76 76 50.00% 2 5 6
94 Louisville 76 76 50.00% 2 7 7
97 Eastern Michigan 76 77 49.67% 1 5 7
98 Troy 73 74 49.66% 1 5 5
99 Connecticut 74 76 49.33% 1 5 6
100 San Diego St 73 76 48.99% 1 4 5
100 Buffalo 73 76 48.99% 1 4 5
102 Minnesota 74 78 48.68% 2 6 7
102 Akron 74 78 48.68% 2 5 6
104 UAB 73 77 48.67% 1 5 6
105 Coastal Carolina 66 70 48.53% 0 6 5
106 Marshall 73 79 48.03% 0 5 7
107 North Texas 66 72 47.83% 0 5 6
108 West Virginia 71 79 47.33% 3 5 6
109 Arkansas St 70 78 47.30% 1 4 5
110 Indiana 71 80 47.02% 4 4 5
111 Wyoming 70 80 46.67% 0 5 6
112 Western Michigan 69 79 46.62% 1 5 5
113 Cincinnati 70 81 46.36% 2 4 6
113 Central Michigan 70 81 46.36% 1 5 6
115 FIU 69 81 46.00% 0 3 6
116 Washington 68 80 45.95% 3 5 4
117 Old Dominion 68 82 45.33% 1 5 5
118 Southern Miss 62 75 45.26% 1 4 5
119 Middle Tennessee 62 75 45.26% 0 3 4
120 Bowling Green 67 83 44.67% 0 5 6
121 UTSA 61 76 44.53% 0 5 5
122 BYU 71 91 43.83% 3 4 6
123 Memphis 64 84 43.24% 0 3 4
124 USF 63 85 42.57% 0 3 4
125 Appalachian St 62 84 42.47% 0 4 4
126 Louisiana Tech 58 81 41.73% 0 2 7
127 WKU 61 87 41.22% 0 3 4
128 Hawaii 60 89 40.27% 1 4 4
129 Ohio 54 93 36.73% 0 2 4
130 Miami, Oh 50 97 34.01% 0 2 3