Daily Blog - Tuesday August 11th

In some of my daily blogs this summer I have gone over the top team team indiviual game efforts for 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004.

I then went over the Top Ten in the AP poll and the Top Ten of my computers average of the season individual games rating. The results basicially showed that if a team was in the Top Ten of the AP but not in my computers Top Ten at the end of the year, they were overrated and almost everytime finished lower in the polls than they began the season with most teams opening the year ranked and finished outside the rankings.

It also showed that if a team was in my computers Top Ten, but not in the AP Top Ten at the end of the year, they were underrated and in most cases finished much higher than expected. After the 2006 season in which Florida beat Ohio State in the national title game, my computer had LSU the #1 team in the country and the next year the Tigers won the title!

Here is the final AP Top Ten from 2008
1. Florida
2. Utah
3. USC
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Penn St
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon

Here is my computers average team rating for 2008 Top 10
USC 105.13
Florida 104.65
Oklahoma 100.49
Texas 97.63
TCU 93.8
Penn St 93.27
Texas Tech 91.96
Alabama 90.55
Mississippi 89.5
Alabama 90.55

Here are the teams that were in the AP Top Ten but not in my Top Ten. These teams figure to be OVERRATED for this year and will likely finish lower than the polls at the beginning of the year.

Utah #2 in the country last year. #18 in the coaches poll this year (not in my Top 40)
Ohio St. #9 in the AP poll last year. #6 in the coaches poll this year
Oregon #10 AP Poll last year. #14 in coached poll this year.
I look for each of these teams to finish lower in the final poll than in the preseason.

That gives us 3 underrated teams for 2009.
TCU was #5 in my computers final poll last year. They open #17 in this years coaches poll.
Texas Tech #7 in my computers final poll last year. They open unranked and picked 4th in the Big 12 South
Mississippi #9 in my computers final poll last year. They open #10 in the coaches poll and picked 3rd in the SEC West.
Also note that my computer had USC #1 at the end of last year and they will be trying to do what LSU did in 2007.

Based on the results of the from 2004-08 5 of the 6 teams above will either go down or up as expected with 1 of them able to go against the grain.

23 DAYS UNTIL FOOTBALL SEASON!