Phil Steele

The start of the season is less than 3 weeks away so I will begin my breakdown of some of this year’s top non-conference games for the 2009 season. Today I will look at 2 games and give you a glimpse of what you can expect to see on my Top 25 Forecasts each week during the season.

Maryland at California
The Storyline: Two teams that each won a bowl game last year and Maryland beat Cal 35-27 in the 3rd game of the 2008 season.
Phil’s Computer Projection

Phil’s analysis – For two teams that finished with almost identical records last year and each winning their bowl game, you might be surprised to see my computer calling for a 23 point Cal win especially with Maryland having won last year’s meeting. I am not surprised. Maryland caught Cal in a great situation last year as the Bears were feeling pretty full of themselves after a 66-3 wipeout of Wash St and they had also beaten Mich St at home in the opener. They were traveling cross country and Maryland made sure the game started at 12 noon eastern which of course made it 9 am to Cal players’ body clocks. Not surprisingly Cal officials have set this game for 7:00 at night which is 10:00 body clock time for the Terp players. If Cal has a strength this year it is their line play. They have my #10 rated offensive line and #10 rated defensive line. If Maryland has a weakness it is experience along the lines. The Terps have just 27 career starts back on the offensive line and 10 career starts back on the defensive line with just 14 career starts back at LB. Inexperienced teams usually struggle the most in their first road game and this is a long and unusual trip for them. With a huge edge along the line of scrimmage, my computer shows Cal with a dominating 260-95 rush edge. RB Jahvid Best should have a big day and last year Cal, with a less experienced Oline, averaged 5.9 ypc rush (221 ypg) at home while the Terps, with a more experienced front 7, yielded 184 ypg rush and 4.44 ypc on the road. Maryland does have a solid backfield with QB Turner, RB Scott and some other talented RB’s and my 1st Team All-ACC LB Alex Wujciak. Last year they played great against ranked teams as they upset Cal, Clemson, Wake Forest and North Carolina and only lost to BC by 5 in their 5 matches vs ranked foes. Wrapping it all up, I look for a much different game than last year with Cal playing with legitimate revenge, controlling the line of scrimmage and having a great scheduling advantage while Maryland is traveling from one coast to the other and playing at an unusual time.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CALIFORNIA 41 Maryland 13

Here is a look at the Maryland side of the Last 12 Years Matchups for the game. There is only one meeting and that was last year. By the way you can get the last 12 years matchups for EVERY game for this upcoming year at your fingertips right here on PhilSteele.com. Just go to the Team Page schedule and click on any opponent.

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Here is a look at how the individual players performed in last year’s game.

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When looking at these stats, you will notice Jahvid Best had his worst game of the year with just 25 yards rushing as Cal got behind 21-3 early and Riley threw it 58 times for 423 yards playing in catch up mode. Terp’s QB Turner was very efficient hitting 15 of 19 for a 182.65 QB rating and RB’s Scott and Meggett combined for 169 rushing and 3 TD’s. Not only are these Individual Player Stats available but you can also go to the team pages and get the entire year of Individual Team Stats for each game for the last TWO years for all 120 teams any time you want.

Illinois vs Missouri
The Storyline: This marks the 5th time these two have met in the last 12 years and all four have been season openers with the game played at a neutral site in St Louis. Missouri has won ALL 4 games and this is the third straight year they will be facing each other. Missouri was the Big 12 North Champ last year and Illinois struggled to a 5-7 losing season and did not even make a bowl.

There is no doubt Missouri has dominated this series with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 12 years (see below). In 2003 Illinois did have a 23-12 FD and 411-223 yard edge but lost (go to Illinois Team Page and click on 2003 Past History for a recap of game). In 2007 Missouri led 37-13 but Illinois was int’d at the 1 with :51 left and MO held on to a 6 point win. Last year Missouri had a 31-13 lead at the half and a 373-144 yard edge but Illinois got some garbage yards and points at the end including a TD on the last play of the game in a Missouri 52-42 win. If you base this contest on that history, the Tigers should be a solid favorite especially with them coming off a Big 12 North title and bowl win while Illinois was just 5-7. A quick check of the preseason magazines at preseason.stassen.com shows Missouri is picked 3rd in the Big 12 North by the other major preseason magazines and 3 web sites have them either 1st or 2nd in the Big 12. The other magazines have Illinois 5th in the Big Ten with Football Outsiders even picking them 10th in the Big 10!! I feel this game will be much different than their first 4 meetings. Illinois is a veteran team especially on offense. They have 95.3% of their offensive skill yards back this year including QB Juice Williams. Juice is a veteran 4 year starter that I have as my 1st Team All-Big Ten QB this year. He will be throwing to my #2 rated receiving corps which returns almost everyone from last year including 1st Team AA Arrelious Benn (PS#1) and Florida transfer Jarred Fayson (PS#9QB). Missouri on offense has just 25.2% of their offensive skill yards back which is the 7th fewest in the NCAA. They have a young QB in Blaine Gabbert who played in 5 games with 43 passing yards as a true frosh. They lose QB Chase Daniel who was a 4 year starter, #1 DC Jeremy Maclin (their top offensive player), John Mackey Award winner TE Chase Coffman and have just 2 returning starters on the offensive line. Last year Illinois allowed 26.6 ppg and Missouri allowed 27.2 ppg. That would make last year’s defenses appear even but I put more weight into the ypg allowed and Illinois rates the edge there. Illinois yielded 350 ypg on defense while Missouri allowed 412 ypg. Missouri has 4 starters back on defense and 56.5% of their total tacklers returning from last year. Illinois has 5 starters back on D and 52.5% of their total tackles returning. The defenses are very close this year but Illinois has a large edge on offense. While Illinois has my #62 rated special teams, Missouri has a new K, KR and PR this year and only comes up #109 in my preseason rankings. Not much went right for Illinois last year as they outgained Big Ten foes by 86.5 ypg but were 3-5 in the conference and that is one reason why I rate them as my Most Improved Team in the country! Two years ago Juice was injured but as you can tell by the stats below, he and Eddie McGee have combined to throw for 769 yds (59.8%) vs the MO defense. WR Benn has 12 grabs (13.9) in that span too. My computer shows Illinois with a 515-420 yard edge but surprisingly only shows them winning by a 36-31 margin. I will call for the stronger team with a large experience edge on offense to win by even more than my computer calls for.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Illinois 37 Missouri 23

Here are the Last 2 Years Individual Stats

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Here are the Last 4 Years Results

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