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Cowboy Stadium in Arlington, TX. This will be the 3rd Big 12 Title matchup between Texas and Nebraska. They met in the inaugural title game in ‘96 with Texas pulling the upset 37-27. Nebraska won 22-6 in ‘99. Both schools are 2-2 in the title game and are making their 5th appearance. The last time Texas played in the Big 12 Title game they trashed Colorado 70-3 with a 486-191 yard edge on their way to a National Title in ‘05 and in ‘06 Nebraska lost to Oklahoma 21-7 with a 366-307 yard edge but was -4 in turnovers. This will be just the 13th meeting as Texas is 8-4 and has lost just once since ’74. Both teams have had 6 common opponents this year (Missouri, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado) and Texas was 6-0 outscoring them by 23 points per game and outgaining them by 116 yards per game. Nebraska was 5-1 outscoring foes by just 5 points per game and actually were outgained by 33 yards per game. Texas was clearly looking ahead last week as they gave up a season high 532 yards and 39 points to rival Texas A&M. Quarterback Colt McCoy (479 total yards last week) is averaging 277 yards per game (72%) with a 27-9 ratio and is #2 on the team in rushing (368 yards, 3.3 ypc). Wide receiver Jordan Shipley has 99 receptions (13.1 ypc). Texas has allowed 21 sacks (4.5%) and is averaging 164 rush yards per game (4.4 ypc). They are ranked #6 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 201 yards per game (57%) with a 14-21 ratio. Nebraska was caught looking ahead last week but survived despite being outgained by 186 yards vs Colorado. Quarterback Zac Lee is averaging 176 yards per game (61%) with a 13-7 ratio. Running back Roy Helu has 1,111 yards (5.4) but true freshman Rex Burkhead (PS#39) had 100 yards last week (5.6 ypc) and is finally 100% giving Nebraska a solid 1-2 punch. Nebraska has allowed 18 sacks (5.6%) and is averaging 147 rush yards per game (4.1 ypc). They are ranked #1 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 190 yards per game (48%) with a 7-16 ratio. Both defenses are among the tops in the nation (Texas #5 NCAA allowing 263 yards per game, Nebraska #11 NCAA, 291 yards per game) but the Horns have a big offensive edge (#2-58, 452 to 335 yards per game). The Huskers have surrendered more than 20 points just once this year and Texas has scored 34+ in every game but one. Obviously an all out effort by both, but the Horns have a National Title game on the horizon and will try to come away unscathed.

PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS 27 NEBRASKA 10

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Boise St is 9-0 and has won the last 2 by a combined margin of 107-0 while outgaining the Aggies 1,099-239 in those two contests! The Aggies are coming off a tough 13-10 loss to San Jose St last week on a last-second field goal. New Mexico St has been shutout in the 1^st half of 5 games this year and the Aggies’ offense has simply been stuck in neutral all season long. New Mexico St is #120 in total offense (233 yards per game) and scoring offense (11.8 points per game) and its quarterbacks are averaging just 91 yards per game combined with a 6-17 ratio as the Aggies are #117 in the NCAA in pass offense. Quarterback Jeff Fleming is averaging 63 yards per game (51%) with a 4-12 ratio and his mobility (248 yards rushing) has given him the edge over Trevor Walls (38 yards per game, 51%, 2-5 ratio) but neither one has been effective. Running back Seth Smith has 902 yards (4.3 ypc) and has been the offense’s lone bright spot but he has been worn down throughout the season with defenses keying in on him. Boise St is at or near the top in nearly every offensive and defensive category in the WAC. The Broncos are #9 in the NCAA in total offense (454 yards per game) and lead the WAC in scoring offense (44.3 points per game) led by the nation’s most efficient quarterback (168.7) Kellen Moore who is averaging 254 yards per game (65%) with a 38-3 ratio. Moore has thrown at least 3 TD passes in 7 of his last 8 games and last week tied a career-high with 5 TD passes in a win over Nevada. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos are #1 in the WAC in scoring defense (18.6 points per game), total defense (309 yards per game) and pass defense (183 yards per game). Boise is 6-0 in home finales winning by an average of 44 points per game (58-14) while scoring no less than 49 points in any contest. Frankly, this is a contest where Boise St could name the score. On paper this is as big of a mismatch as there is in the WAC and the Aggies are simply at the Broncos mercy in this one. Boise St will claim its 7th WAC title in 8 years here, will remain perfect and keep its BCS hopes alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 55 NEW MEXICO ST 0

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LAST 12 YEAR MATCHUPS

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Raymond James Stadium, “The Road to Tampa Bay.” This is Clemson’s 1st trip to the ACC Title game as the Tigers haven’t won the ACC since 1991. Georgia Tech won the Coastal Division and went to the title game in 2006 (lost to Wake Forest 9-6). Both head coaches are in just their 2nd season and both have been rewarded for their efforts. Dabo Swinney will receive a $1 million bonus and Paul Johnson received an extra year on his contract (also extended last year from $11 million to $17.7 million over seven years). They have faced 4 common opponents this year (Miami, Wake Forest, Florida St and Virginia) and Clemson went 4-0 while Georgia Tech went 3-1. Both teams are coming off their instate rival games vs SEC teams with 5 losses in which both teams may have been looking ahead as the Jackets fell to Georgia 30-24 and the Tigers lost to South Carolina 34-17. These 2 met earlier in the regular season on a Thursday Night as Georgia Tech squeaked by Clemson 30-27. The score was somewhat misleading as each team attempted a “fake FG” which resulted in 14 Georgia Tech points. After the game, head coach Paul Johnson said of both Clemson’s defensive tackles could play in the NFL. That game was just Clemson quarterback Kyle Parker’s 2nd career start but he has averaged 239 yards per game passing with a 12-3 ratio the last five FBS games. Last week vs South Carolina, running back CJ Spiller set an NCAA record with his 7th career kick return TD and became the 5th in NCAA history to have 7,000+ all-purpose yards. On the season, the Heisman candidate is #4 in the NCAA averaging 184 all-purpose yards per game. Clemson wide receiver Jacoby Ford has 50 receptions (14.0 ypc). Clemson has allowed 19 sacks with an offensive line that averages 6’5” 308 lbs. Georgia Tech leads the ACC in scoring (35.0 points per game) and total offense (440.5 yards per game). While the Jackets have the offensive edge (#7-34), the Tigers have the defensive (#13-42) and special teams edges (#12-77). Tech quarterback Josh Nesbitt left the game last week in the 1^st quarter with a sprained ankle although he did return but was limited rushing for just 33 yards (135 passing). On the season he is averaging 129 yards per game passing (47%) with a 9-4 ratio and has rushed for 888 yards. Running back Jonathan Dwyer is #3 in the ACC with 1,236 rush yards (6.3 ypc). Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas has 44 receptions (24.5 ypc!). Georgia Tech has allowed just 9 sacks and the offensive line averages 6’3” 271 lbs. Clemson is looking to avenge their regular season loss to Tech and will finally win an ACC title that many have been calling for the last few years.                                                       

PHIL’S FORECAST : CLEMSON 31 GEORGIA TECH 24

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California earned back some conference respect with their upset of Stanford knocking off their 2nd consecutive Top 25 team in as many weeks (beat Arizona in Berkeley). Cal had actually lost 19 straight to Washington prior to the arrival of head coach Tedford but is 6-1 since (won by 30+ points on 4 occasions in that span). Bears’ running back Jahvid Best rushed for a school-record 311 yards (4 TD’s) in Cal’s 48-7 thrashing of the Huskies last year, but it is unlikely he’ll be available here as he is still recovering from his devastating fall in the Oregon St game a month ago (1080 total yards, 16 total TD this year). In Best’s absence, backup running back Shane Vereen has answered the call, rushing for 352 yards (4.9 ypc) in the 2 games since the injury. The Huskies delivered their 1st shutout of Washington in 45 years holding the Cougars to just 163 yards and didn’t allow Washington St past their 33 yard line the entire game. Despite being with out quarterback Jake Locker (232 pass ypg, 57%, 18-11 ratio) in their last home meeting with the Bears in ‘07, Cal was upset 37-23 as the Huskies rushed for 334 yards (6.0 ypc) in the win. Cal is fresh off a late season bye and catch Washington off their Apple Cup game (The Huskies are 0-3 losing by a 49-9 margin in regular season games after Washington St), which should continue Cal’s charge up the Pac 10 standings in their regular season finale.

PHIL’S FORECAST : CALIFORNIA 34 WASHINGTON 21

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The Knights will look for their 1st win over West Virginia since ‘94 (0-14) and to leapfrog the Mountaineers for a better bowl. Last week, Rutgers looked like the team I expected and rebounded from their Syracuse loss with a 34-14 win over Louisville. A pair of freshman led the way as Wildcat quarterback Mohamed Sanu rushed for 148 yards (8.2 ypc) with 2 TD’s and quarterback Tom Savage threw a TD and ran for another. Savage is averaging 176 yards per game (55%) with an 11-4 ratio and the Knights are averaging 151 rush (4.1ypc) yards per game at home. The defense is 4th in the NCAA forcing 29 turnovers and 4th in tackles for loss averaging 8.3 per game. West Virginia is off a huge win over #8 Pitt 19-16 in the 102nd meeting of the Backyard Brawl. Running back Noel Devine showed no ill effects of an ankle injury that limited him to 62 yards per game the previous 3 games and rushed for 134 yards (7.9 ypc) with an 88 yard TD. Quarterback Jarrett Brown is averaging 183 yards per game (65%) with a 12-8 ratio. West Virginia has the edge on offense (#49-76) and defense (#26-37) and has played the tougher schedule (#54-115). The Knights have played well in home finales including 4 straight wins with an average score of 41-12. Rutgers defense matches up well versus the West Virginia offense as the Knights have one of the quickest defenses in the conference and last year held the Mountaineers to 3.5 yards per carry and held Devine to 55 yards (2.9 ypc).                                                           

PHIL’S FORECAST : RUTGERS 23 W VIRGINIA 16

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Both teams were knocked out in the quarterfinals last year. This year all 4 CAA teams advanced in the playoffs, but that number will drop to at least 3 as CAA Champion Villanova will get a chance at revenge vs a New Hampshire team that handed them their only conference loss this year. Villanova leads the all-time series 10-9 but has lost 3 of the last 4 but did win the last meeting at home. In the earlier meeting of the Wildcats, New Hamphire won 28-24 at home with a 368-352 yard edge. New Hampshire was the only road team to win in the opening round this year with an impressive 49-13 win at McNeese St. They led just 21-13 at the half but scored 28 unanswered points in the 2nd half and finished the game with a 460-326 yard edge. That is even more impressive as McNeese came in with the #2 scoring (37.0 points per game) and #5 total offense (443.0 ypg) in the FCS. Villanova won a shootout with Patriot League Champion Holy Cross 38-28 where the teams combined for over 950 yards of offense with neither team turning the ball over. Villanova only led 35-28 in the 4th quarter despite finishing with a 537-393 yard edge. Since their 1st meeting Villanova has won 6 straight while New Hampshire went 5-2. I look for Villanova to take the rematch and move on.

PHIL’S FORECAST : VILLANOVA 24 N HAMPSHIRE 20

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First meeting. Southern Illinois is in their 7th straight playoff and has been knocked out the last 2 years by a Colonial team. William & Mary is in their 1st playoff since 2004. Both teams are off dominating opening round wins. William & Mary shutout Weber St 38-0 with a 408-161 yard with a 5-0 turnover edge and held Weber St to just 20 net yards in the 2nd half. Southern Illinois allowed Eastern Illinois a TD in the 1st quarter, but then scored 48 unanswered points the rest of the game and finished with a 389-189 yard edge with a 6-2 turnover margin. Now after hosting a team that had to travel in from Utah, the Tribe must hit the road and face an Southern Illinois team that has won 11 straight since just falling short 31-28 to FBS Marshall in their season opener. William & Mary’s 2 losses were to fellow Colonial members Villanova (#2 seed) and Richmond (#4 seed) both on the road. William and Mary has only allowed 1 team over 20 points this year (Nova 28) but Southern Illinois has scored 24 or more in every game and has scored 42 or more in 5 games this year. William & Mary did finish in 3rd place in the Colonial South and in the last two years, the 3rd place finisher in the Colonial has made it to the Championship game. Some streaks must be broken, so look for the third time to be the charm as I will call for Southern Illinois to get the win over the CAA team.

PHIL’S FORECAST : S ILLINOIS 20 WILL & MARY 14