Statistically the Bengals look to be competitive here with the #18 & #4 units (+1 TO’s) vs MIN’s #5 & #9 units (+7 TO’s). The problem is the Bengals faced 3 teams that are a combined 8-29 on the year right now & they only avg’d 18.7 ppg. CIN will be without its best run stuffing DT in Domato Peko here & MIN will be keen to get the run game on track after Peterson was held to 19 yds (1.5) vs ARZ. I think the loss to the Cardinals was a good thing for the Vikings as it woke them up & put them on notice that they can & will be beaten if they don’t focus. CIN does have very good man to man CB’s but I like the matchup of TE Shiancoe vs the CIN LB’s. I like an angry MIN team to get back on track vs a Bengals offense that doesn’t seem to be in sync the past few weeks.

The good news is that the Chiefs kept their streak of 155 games of no blackouts alive here. Despite the high turnover under Todd Haley the Chiefs will be very keen to avenge a 54-31 loss to BUF LY which set a franchise record for most points allowed. BUF has been outgained by 116 ypg on the road TY (28^th). Their lack of depth at LB has been compounded by injuries TY as shown by their #32 rush defense (4.9). Cassel (84 yds 34% 0-2) was benched for a bit LW vs the Broncos due to poor play & the Bills have a quality pass defense allowing 6.3 ypa with a 10-21 ratio. This is a tough game but I’ll side with the home team smarting off a big loss & watch the improving play of Tamba Hali (6.5 sacks) who is having a good year despite a poor supporting cast.

The Falcons were thumped by the Eagles last week 34-7 as they were without 5 offensive starters & could very well be without them again this week. Compounding matters for the Falcons is that they lost their #2 TE Justin Peele & their #1 CB Chris Houston. The Saints were sluggish after the NE game & they barely escaped thanks to a great play by WR Meachem & a missed FG by the Redskins. This would be another good letdown for the Saints vs a thin Falcons team as they have a Saturday game vs DAL on deck. Howerver, the media sparked Brees by asking him if he wanted to win all 16 this year or rest. Sean Payton also confirmed that the team would go for the record as well & even if Ryan plays here the Saints have too many weapons & remain focused. 

Last week was the 1^st time since mid-2006 the Patriots lost back to back games. They had their chances vs the Dolphins but were SOD on the 6 & Brady’s Int in the EZ cost them the game. The frustration is showing as Brady called out his teammates afterwards & Belichick sent 4 players home after being late this week. Brady hasn’t practiced yet this week but it wasn’t due to finger/rib injuries & he knows the NE system inside & out so that isn’t much of a concern. What is a concern is NE’s #28 pass rush vs a power rush oriented CAR offense that will try do all it can to help out Matt Moore. The loss of defensive starters like Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Seymour was a big blow to NE’s leadership but I think the Patriots neutralize the Panther run game with offense here.  

Last week was the 1^st time since mid-2006 the Patriots lost back to back games. They had their chances vs the Dolphins but were SOD on the 6 & Brady’s Int in the EZ cost them the game. The frustration is showing as Brady called out his teammates afterwards & Belichick sent 4 players home after being late this week. Brady hasn’t practiced yet this week but it wasn’t due to finger/rib injuries & he knows the NE system inside & out so that isn’t much of a concern. What is a concern is NE’s #28 pass rush vs a power rush oriented CAR offense that will try do all it can to help out Matt Moore. The loss of defensive starters like Vrabel, Bruschi, Harrison, Seymour was a big blow to NE’s leadership but I think the Patriots neutralize the Panther run game with offense here.  

TEN’s 5 game win streak came to an abrupt end LW vs IND as they fell behind 27-10 to the Colts at the half. Young tweaked his knee midway thru the 2Q & he reinjured it in Thursday’s practice & was rested on Friday. Fisher isn’t worried about it as he’ll have Chris Johnson who is 491 yds away from the 2000 yd mark. STL has allowed 120 yds rushing the last 7 games (161 ypg 5.0) & they lost their best defensive player in OJ Atogwe (shoulder) to IR this week. Boller was limited in practice on Thursday with a thigh strain & their patchwork OL could have its hands full vs the Titans #14 pass rush on the road. I admire Steven Jackson who has avg’d 122 ypg (5.0) in his L6 games as he hasn’t practiced in a month due to a back injury. TEN is the better team here & even if Kerry Collins starts the Rams don’t have the talent to matchup though they are playing hard since the bye.

Bruce Gradkowski is quickly winning over the team upsetting both the Bengals & the Steelers in his 3 starts & I really don’t blame them for the loss vs DAL as it was on a very short week. However the Raiders are 6-20 after a win & 8-26 at home overall. OAK’s OL has only given up 6 sacks with Gradkowski at the helm & they have rushed for 108 ypg (4.3) in the span but they lost LG Gallery (back) for the injury & Ctr Satele is very questionable here. This could be trouble vs a WAS defense that has played very well in their L3 games vs quality foes. WAS won’t have Haynesworth here but he missed the DAL & PHI games as well. I was impressed by Jason Campbell (367 yds 71% 3-1) LW & with him being a free agent in 2010 I think he’d be a great fit in Carolina if their coaching staff stays. There is enough film on Gradkowski for the Redskins to work with & the road team gets the win.

Philadelphia at NY GIANTS – Andy Reid is 14-5 in December vs NFC East teams. The Giants are one of the best teams in the NFL with their backs up against the wall. The Giants shook up the defense last week vs Dallas & quite a few times they just had 2 down lineman & rushed 4 standing up. The Giants are now a game behind PHI/DAL & have the tiebreaker edge over the Cowboys. The winner of this game has a very good chance of being the NFC East Champ & this is a must see game.