Daily Blog • Sunday, December 27th

Each day during bowl season in my daily blog, I will give you my forecasts on the bowl games taking place that day. My forecasts will include a detailed write-up with my computer’s projected box score including rushing and passing yards, points and turnovers along with a detailed write-up on each game.

Also check out the bowl matchup section to get the latest and greatest information on all the upcoming bowl games including, game by game stats, 2009 recaps, and checklists for every position and intangible.

MUSIC CITY BOWL
CLEMSON VS KENTUCKY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEMSON 207
185
34
2.5
••
KENTUCKY
173
105
20
2.4
 

Clemson is the superior team here as Kentucky has had some misleading finals in their last two games. The Wildcats beat Georgia 34-27 despite being outgained 487-260 and then against Tennessee they lost by only six despite being outgained 446-261. Clemson has an excellent front seven as they have 34 sacks this year and the Tigers have two players in RB CJ Spiller and WR Jacoby Ford that can score anytime they touch the ball. Clemson has lost three straight bowl games and have lost their last two games this year so they should be extra motivated to end those streaks. Clemson has the big talent edge and despite the pro Kentucky crowd I expect the Tigers to playing at their best.

PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 34 KENTUCKY 20


Conference Bowl Standings


Bowl Conference VS Conference Records
OVERALL
vs BCS CONF
W
L
%
W
L
%
MWC
3
0
100%
2
0
100%
BIG EAST
2
0
100%
1
0
0
SUN BELT
1
0
100%
0
0
0
CUSA
2
2
50%
0
1
0%
PAC 10
1
2
33%
1
0
100%
SEC
0
0
0
0
0
0
BIG 12
0
0
0
0
0
0
BIG 10
0
0
0
0
0
0
INDEP
0
0
0
0
0
0
MAC
0
1
0%
0
0
0%
WAC
0
1
0%
0
0
0
ACC
0
2
0%
0
2
0%


The MWC is off to a great start with a 3-0 record thanks to Wyoming's upset over Fresno St in the New Mexico Bowl and two big wins over the Pac-10 the last week. The Big East has picked up a couple of wins including Pittsburgh's win over North Carolina yester day. CUSA after starting 0-2 has won their last two including SMU's impressive win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. The PAC 10 also got their first win of the bowl season yesterday with USC beating Boston College 24-13. The ACC did not have a good day dropping both of their contests yesterday to BCS teams.

Bowl Confidence Contest

Make sure to check the daily blog every day as we will be posting the standings here after every bowl game is played.

There will be two Top 50 leaderboards. The first one will be points won and the second is best win percentage of their points. Sometimes the early leaders are the ones that risked the most on the early bowls and they fall by the wayside as the contest goes on so that is why I will also keep track of those that have the best win percentage.

Out of more than 1200 entries William Meleski continues to lead the contest with 190 points won and a 78% win %. Jeff Hamilton moved up to 2nd with 162 points and an impressive 83% win % and Bob Knight moved into 3rd with 160 points. Frank Scott is #1 in win % with 89%!

I now have 69 points and there are still 25 bowl games to be played.

Thanks again to all that have entered. If you have any problems with your points or do not see your name please email Brandon@philsteele.com. Here are the current leaderboards.

The Top 50 in Points Won

Rk Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
1
William J Meleski
190
55
78%
12
2
Jeff Hamilton
162
33
83%
2
3
Bob Knight
160
48
77%
14
4
Joel Blank
153
346
31%
872
5
Richie Thomas
152
47
76%
15
6
Jack Hawn
151
53
74%
19
7
Lyell Marks
144
126
53%
184
8
Gene Winters
143
79
64%
53
9
Don Seebold
142
36
80%
7
10
Josh Farnsworth
134
36
79%
10
11
Marc Ostrom
131
37
78%
11
12
Dave Klaehn
128
88
59%
95
13
Timothy Divis
127
62
67%
33
14
Matthew Goodman
124
84
60%
91
14
Bill Morehead
124
96
56%
129
16
Ron Stroman
123
119
51%
237
17
Jeff Hedges
122
87
58%
105
17
Michael Mancini
122
94
56%
128
19
Matt Thompson
119
65
65%
52
19
Luke Savage
119
74
62%
73
21
Dick Rosser
118
61
66%
43
21
Tony Orioli
118
92
56%
130
21
Mark Walsh
118
102
54%
175
24
Phillip Mason
117
43
73%
21
25
Sherry Shoup
116
154
43%
424
25
Duston Turner
116
154
43%
424
27
Aaron Trauger
115
65
64%
55
27
Mitchell Sanpei
115
68
63%
64
27
Carl Ciaramitaro
115
103
53%
193
30
Mike Guzzo
114
69
62%
67
30
Don Deavers
114
70
62%
72
30
Doug Nelms
114
94
55%
151
30
Dan Defoggi
114
156
42%
458
34
Anthony Chapman
113
75
60%
86
34
Gary Candon
113
89
56%
132
36
Doug Mayfields
112
39
74%
18
36
adam muscat
112
68
62%
68
36
Bud Converse
112
106
51%
224
39
John Geanakos
110
93
54%
163
39
Ryan Faulkner
110
103
52%
221
41
Craig Domingues
109
79
58%
110
42
Jerry Chieffalo
108
55
66%
38
42
Ben Brin
108
57
65%
48
44
Matthew Edmundson
107
97
52%
199
45
John Mina
106
71
60%
89
45
James Bigley
106
90
54%
167
45
Sephen Fraher
106
102
51%
232
45
Bob Noel
106
134
44%
392
49
Natalie Lindsay
105
48
69%
49
Buddy Davis
105
60
64%
57

The Top 50 in Win %

Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Frank Scott
87
11
89%
1
Jeff Hamilton
162
33
83%
2
Gary Magnus
65
14
82%
3
Jerry Bankhead
94
21
82%
4
Dan Maurer
75
18
81%
5
Frank Elia
90
22
80%
6
Don Seebold
142
36
80%
7
Frank Elia
98
25
80%
8
Timothy Zelek
73
19
79%
9
Josh Farnsworth
134
36
79%
10
Marc Ostrom
131
37
78%
11
William J Meleski
190
55
78%
12
plhokie
104
31
77%
13
Bob Knight
160
48
77%
14
Richie Thomas
152
47
76%
15
Marc Caruso
98
33
75%
16
Scott Walsky
53
18
75%
17
Doug Mayfields
112
39
74%
18
Jack Hawn
151
53
74%
19
Anthony Marcello
103
37
74%
20
Phillip Mason
117
43
73%
21
Matt Schupp
73
28
72%
22
Steve MacDonald
94
37
72%
23
Frank Hillman
57
23
71%
24
Jason Harris
91
37
71%
25
Mark Ferdinando
73
32
70%
26
Don Armstrong
102
45
69%
27
Lisa DiBello
95
42
69%
28
Bobby Welles
103
46
69%
29
Natalie Lindsay
105
48
69%
30
Gary Cotton
62
28
69%
31
Jason Fry
91
42
68%
32
Scott Jasinkowski
55
26
68%
33
Timothy Divis
127
62
67%
34
JOSHUA SMITH
92
45
67%
35
John Galliera
85
42
67%
36
James Marzano
30
15
67%
37
Jeremy Zinn
97
49
66%
38
Jerry Chieffalo
108
55
66%
39
Giovanni Sicurella
78
40
66%
40
eric sabo
101
52
66%
41
ray59
33
17
66%
42
Jim Martindale
64
33
66%
43
Dick Rosser
118
61
66%
44
DAWN KING
98
51
66%
45
Glenn Heit
96
50
66%
46
Jeffrey Gans
65
34
66%
47
Austin Huggins
74
39
65%
48
Ben Brin
108
57
65%
49
Steve Liles
80
43
65%
50

Radio Contest Leaderboards

WKNR Cleveland, OH with Michael Reghi
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Dave Klaehn
128
88
59%
9
Anthony Chapman
113
75
60%
8
Anthony Marcello
103
37
74%
3
Paul Becker
100
107
48%
18
David Dohar
99
112
47%
19
Frank Elia
98
25
80%
1
Marc Caruso
98
33
75%
2
K. McAbier
98
63
61%
6
Gary Osborne
94
69
58%
10
Michael Reghi
90
117
43%
30
Chris Hicks
90
143
39%
39
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Frank Elia
98
25
80%
1
Marc Caruso
98
33
75%
2
Anthony Marcello
103
37
74%
3
Scott Jasinkowski
55
26
68%
4
Keith Fodar
70
41
63%
5
K. McAbier
98
63
61%
6
Chris Haynes
77
50
61%
7
Anthony Chapman
113
75
60%
8
Dave Klaehn
128
88
59%
9
Gary Osborne
94
69
58%
10

Dave Klaehn now leads the KNR contest with 128 points. Anthony Chapman who was the leader going into Christmas is second with 113 points. Frank Elia does have the best win % with 80% followed by Marc Caruso with 75%.

"All Bets Are Off" Sports Time Ohio Cleveland, OH
with Bruce Drennan
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Gene Winters
143
79
64%
2
Matthew Goodman
124
84
60%
4
Frank Cellura
98
68
59%
5
Kevin Wise
96
68
59%
6
NICK SCHWEMBERGER
96
86
53%
11
Frank Elia
90
22
80%
1
WILL BUTLER
89
72
55%
8
Jim Nalle
83
60
58%
7
John McFarlane
80
108
43%
14
SCOTT FRANK
75
94
44%
12
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Frank Elia
90
22
80%
1
Gene Winters
143
79
64%
2
MIKE COON
72
48
60%
3
Matthew Goodman
124
84
60%
4
Frank Cellura
98
68
59%
5
Kevin Wise
96
68
59%
6
Jim Nalle
83
60
58%
7
WILL BUTLER
89
72
55%
8
Opal
66
55
55%
9
Tim Johnston
58
51
53%
10

Gene Winters has led the Sports Time Ohio group since day 1 with 143 pts won and a 64% win %. Matthew Goodman has been rising on the list the past couple of days and has 124 pts and a win % of 60%.

ESPN Radio 94.1 Virginia Beach, VA with Tony Mercurio
Top 10 POINTS WON
Top 10 WIN %
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
don lloyd
88
72
55%
5
David Crews
85
163
34%
12
damonbeau
84
110
43%
6
Richard Bidnick
82
57
59%
2
dcnev
81
122
40%
10
Nick Mataragas
80
56
59%
3
Phillip Todd
80
110
42%
7
Tony Mercurio
78
63
55%
4
Rob Vanier
66
36
65%
1
Daryl Baker
66
91
42%
8
Name
Pts Won
Pts Lost
Win %
% Rank
Rob Vanier
66
36
65%
1
Richard Bidnick
82
57
59%
2
Nick Mataragas
80
56
59%
3
tony Mercurio
78
63
55%
4
don lloyd
88
72
55%
5
damonbeau
84
110
43%
6
Dan Wagoner
64
86
43%
7
Phillip Todd
80
110
42%
8
Daryl Baker
66
91
42%
9
brad mcmasters
65
90
42%
10

Don Lloyd leads the 94.1 group with 88 points won with Richard David Crews in second with 85. Rob Vanier has the best win % with 65%.

The Sports Animal 790 AM Houston, TX
with Charlie Pallilo

Adam Muscat leads the 790 group with 112 points won and a 62% win %. Paul Polsky is in 2nd with 89 points.


HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR SUNDAY DECEMBER 27TH

 

SEATTLE AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEATTLE 89
213
16
3
#18
GREEN BAY 147
310
35
0
#31

Including playoffs this is the 4th straight season with a meeting between the teams. In their last meeting Green Bay went into Seattle and beat them 27-17. Green Bay had a 313-177 yard edge vs a very depleted Seattle team that started its #3 quarterback due to injuries. Seattle had a 17-3 lead when the Packers scored 24 unanswered points then allowed a garbage TD late in the 4th quarter. Green Bay QB Rodgers had 208 yards (70%) with 2 TD’s. Green Bay’s #2 rush defense which is allowing 89 yards per game (3.9 ypc) at home this year vs weak Seattle rush attack. Rodgers has averaged 269 yards per game (66%) with a 13-3 ratio at home this year and has only been sacked 6 times in the last four games prior to Pittsburgh. Seattle’s #16 pass rush has been balanced this year pulling in 12 sacks on the road but are allowing 290 yards per game (71%) with a 15-4 ratio on the road. Seattle has been outgained by 138 yards per game in the 4 games prior to Tampa Bay as their defense wears down & defenses have figured out how to expose the offensive line. Green Bay has lots to play for as they want the #5 seed, have a road trip to Arizona on deck & Seattle simply doesn’t travel well with their only road win this year being vs a St Louis team that started Boller.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Green Bay 27 Seattle 10

 

 

 

KANSAS CITY AT CINCINNATI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 76
163
13
2
#15
CINCINNATI 211
210
31
2
#22

Cincinnati beat Kansas City 17-7 last year as the Chiefs with a very young & beat up roster already had the cars packed & ready to go into the offseason. Cincy had a 13-0 lead, 17-2 first down & 239-50 yard edges with a beat up offense at the end of the 1st half. Cincinnati then played ball control in the 2nd half & the Chiefs scored on a 91 yd/11play drive on their final possession in garbage time. The Bengals have a massive edge with their #6 run game vs the Chiefs #28 run defense that has allowed 148 yards per game (4.5 ypc). Kansas City has a road game vs Denver on deck while Cincinnati finds itself in a potentially meaningful game next week vs the Jets to find out if they are the #3 or #4 seed. The Bengals have topped 23 points only once in 13 games but their defense is one of the best.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Cincinnati by 7

 

 

HOUSTON AT MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 52
323
20
2
#14
MIAMI 145
228
24
2
#7

This game means a lot to both as Houston players want to keep Kubiak & the Dolphins may have an outside shot at the playoffs. This is the 4th meeting between the teams & last year Houston beat the Dolphins 29-28 at home. Houston did overcame 4 turnovers in the game with a 485-370 yard edge as Schaub ran for the game winning TD on 4th & goal with :07 left. Houston rebounded from a devastating 4 game losing streak and beat Seattle 2 weeks ago. Remember this team has been 8-8 each of the last 2 seasons and still plays hard down the stretch winning 5 of 7.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Houston 28 Miami 24

 

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 95
180
14
3
#1
N ORLEANS 141
295
31
2
#26

Earlier this season New Orleans was +4 in turnovers which led to a 38-7 Saints win as they finished with a 370-219 yard edge. Tampa is clearly looking ahead to next season going with rookie Freeman at QB while also making a Defensive Coordinator change and Head Coach Morris taking over those duties. Freeman will now be making his 7th start but despite allowing him to throw more he’s struggled reading defense and is completing just 52% in the 1st half of games completing many throws late with teams in prevent. The QB problems have directly correlated to the scoreboard as they averaged just 8 points per game the last four weeks. With New Orleans off of the Dallas loss and having a road game at Carolina on deck (lost both to Panthers last year) this should be closer than the first meeting but the Saints will still win comfortably as they lock up home field advantage.

PHIL’S FORECAST: New orleans by 17

 

 

BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BALTIMORE 105
208
26
1
#6
PITTSBURGH 101
177
18
2
#30

The Steelers got a last second win last week and are still fighting for their playoff lives. Baltimore is off back to back home wins but taking to the division road is another matter. If you look at the Ravens other 2 division road games this year they gained only 274 yards & 14 FD’s in Cleveland while gaining 215 yards & 16 FD’s in Cincinnati. I’ll call for the Steelers to win by a field goal to keep their playoff hopes alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Pittsburgh by 3

 

ST LOUIS AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ST LOUIS 123
160
10
2
#9
ARIZONA 137
260
27
2
#3

The Cardinals keep appearing as the team no one wants to face as their defense continues to improve especially in stopping the run. The Cardinals are off a 2 game road trip and have wrapped up the division but WR Fitzgerald has vowed that they would be more focused than last year where the Cardinals lost to Minnesota & New England by a combined 82-21 in weeks 15 & 16. St Louis was mauled two weeks ago at Tennessee losing 47-7 and have lost 6 straight. The Rams went to Keith Null at QB and may be looking at him here to see if he is a potential backup QB. That would spell trouble against a Cardinals defense that has had at least 3 sacks in 5 straight games & has had 4 or more sacks in 6 games this year. In the last four games the Cardinals have had 100+ yard rushing they are averaging 436 yards per game and they will be able to run over a Rams defense that has allowed 161 yards per game the last 8 weeks. Earlier this year Arizona finished with a 444-314 yard edge against the Rams and get the big win here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Arizona by 17

 

NY JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NY JETS 143
175
16
2
#24
INDIANAPOLIS 69
202
27
2
#28

Congrats to the Colts as they now hold the record for consecutive wins. Head Coach Caldwell has said the Colts will go for the 16-0 record but will start sitting players if injuries do start to occur. The Jets were on a 3 game win streak before the disappointing loss to Atlanta last week at home. The Jets defense has stepped up the blitzing & in an impressive 3 game stretch they held Carolina, Buffalo & Tampa Bay to 8 points per game, 9 first down/game & only 165 yards per game. It doesn’t matter who is playing QB with that type of defensive production. RB Thomas Jones continues to gel with his OL and over the last 8 games he’s averaging 112 yards per game & 4.7 yards per carry getting at least 21 carries in every game. Solid defense & a power rush attack will keep you in every game especially in December but the Colts keep the undefeated season alive.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Indianapolis by 1

 

 

OAKLAND AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OAKLAND 148
185
18
1
#20
CLEVELAND 178
143
20
2
#2

This is the 5th meeting in 7 years with the Raiders going 3-1. This however will be the 1st cold weather meeting in the series. Oakland will start QB Charlie Fry who was the QB of the Browns a few years ago while the Browns will start Derek Anderson who replaces the injured Quinn. The Browns deserve credit for a huge Thursday Night win in their last home game as they played without 6 defensive starters and held Pittsburgh to 216 yards and just 3 of 14 on 3rd downs. The Browns after last weeks 41-34 win will be going for the third straight win and this game will be very close with both backup QB’s playing.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Cleveland by 1

 

BUFFALO AT ATLANTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 99
173
12
1
#4
ATLANTA 150
178
18
2
#8

This is the Falcons 4th home game in 5 weeks but they have a road game vs Tampa Bay on deck. Matt Ryan will get the start despite battling a turf toe injury the past few weeks and he could have a solid day vs poor run defense & TE Gonzalez is a great matchup vs a depleted Buffalo LB unit. Atlanta has a poor pass defense/pass rush that could struggle vs Buffalo WR’s. Atlanta head coach Smith has preached taking care of your home field and despite still being 12-3 at home they are off back to back home losses as both Ryan & Turner missed the Philadelphia & New Orleans games. The Falcons have played well at home this year and a big win in their home finale will be motivation. The Bills offense is averaging just 265 yards per game on the road and have topped the 300 yard barrier just once. This is the Bills 3rd game away from home in 4 weeks sandwiched by a pair of marquee home games vs New England & the potentially undefeated Colts and this is not their spot. Buffalo’s rush defense has surrendered 190 yards per game & 5.2 yards per carry the last 11 games as Atlanta takes care of business in their home finale.          

PHIL’S FORECAST: Atlanta 27 Buffalo 10

 

CAROLINA AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAROLINA 128
195
24
1
#32
NY GIANTS 121
210
21
3
#17

Last year at this time the talk was about how the Panthers & Giants were competing for the #1 seed in the NFC. Now the Panthers are out of the playoffs due to injuries, poor QB play & a lack of depth & talent in the receiving game. The Giants need to win their final two games and will need Dallas and Philadelphia to lose. Last year the Giants powered their way to a 34-28 win in a game with 40 mph winds. The Giants had a 459-343 yard edge as they put on a rushing clinic with 301 yards (7.3 ypc) vs 158 (4.5 ypc) on the ground. Carolina Head Coach Fox insists his players finish the season properly but the Giants are fighting for their playoff lives and get the close win.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY Giants by 1

 

JACKSONVILLE AT NEW ENGLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 94
203
13
2
#21
NEW ENGLAND 125
293
28
1
#27

Including the playoffs this is the 5th meeting in 7 years with New England being 4-0 in the series. Brady has edge with Moss/Welker vs a poor Jags pass defense but Jags have edge with Jones-Drew vs Patriots rush defense. What has always been perceived as the “model franchise” the Patriots are now having to deal with internal strife and player dissension. Winning used to soften those issues but after dropping back to back games to New Orleans & Miami they did rebound vs Carolina and Buffalo but still do not have anything locked up. Jacksonville already failed one test as at home vs the Dolphins and they not only lost but were outgained 354-217 and outfirstdowne’d 22-10. New England meanwhile has beaten just one team (NY Jets) by over 10 points in the last 6 games in the 5 close games they’ve only outgained their opponents by 32 yards per game so this game could be close like the recent Patriot wins.

PHIL’S FORECAST: New England by 10

 

DENVER AT PHILADELPHIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 96
198
17
2
#12
PHILADELPHIA 143
214
31
2
#25

Denver had a 2 game win streak snapped at Indianapolis but they did battle finishing with a 357-312 yard edge two weeks ago. They now travel for a 3rd time in 4 weeks and this game is sandwiched between a pair of division home games. Meanwhile Philadelphia can wrap up the division by winning their remaining two games. However, The Eagles are a team which haven’t been able to gel with major injuries on the offensive side of the ball and do have Dallas on deck. Denver continues to play hard for their fiery head coach McDaniels and has outgained opponents by 45 yards per game on the road. Pressure in December come playoff time makes teams play more conservatively and I’ll call for Denver QB Orton who has done what has been asked by throwing no interceptions in 7 games and throwing over 1 interception just once this year to be able to keep it within a TD.

PHIL’S FORECAST: Philadelphia by 7

 

DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 86
173
11
2
#29
SAN FRAN 139
263
30
2
#13

Detroit was outgained 548-229 against the Ravens two weeks ago as The Lions lost RB Smith to a knee injury and when a losing team that already is without their starting QB sees its top offensive rushing weapon lost for the year it is tough to play motivated football. San Francisco is off a tough 3 game stretch having hosted Arizona and Minnesota then traveling to Philly last week. They are however in their home finale and with Singletary roaming the sidelines the only way for them to finish would be with a win. The first step is to learn to win which they did last year and this season they’ve also become accustomed to winning at home with big wins of 23-10, 35-0 & 20-3. The 49ers should win comfortably here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: San Francisco by 14