Phil Steele's Daily Blog - Friday July 10th

I have gone thru each teams conference records this decade. Now lets take a look at home records this decade. First lets get to the chart and then some analysis.

		HOME W'S	HOME L'S	%	# of times Dog at home			HOME W'S	HOME L'S	%	# of times Dog at home


1	BOISE ST	56	2	96.6%	2	61	ARK ST	30	18	62.5%	18
2	OKLAHOMA	55	2	96.5%	1	62	MINNESOTA	36	22	62.1%	16
3	TEXAS	50	4	92.6%	0	63	Air Force	34	21	61.8%	13
4	TROY	36	5	87.8%	6	64	CONNECTICUT	34	21	61.8%	18
5	OHIO STATE	54	8	87.1%	3	65	NEVADA	32	20	61.5%	24
6	TCU	45	7	86.5%	6	66	TULSA	33	21	61.1%	21
7	USC	47	8	85.5%	4	67	NEW MEXICO	34	22	60.7%	21
8	VIRGINIA TECH	52	9	85.2%	3	68	COLORADO	32	21	60.4%	18
9	FLORIDA	49	9	84.5%	1	69	MIAMI OH	27	18	60.0%	11
10	LSU	54	10	84.4%	5	70	MISSISSIPPI	36	24	60.0%	17
11	GEORGIA	47	10	82.5%	3	71	MICHIGAN ST	36	24	60.0%	18
12	TEXAS TECH	47	10	82.5%	9	72	NC STATE	36	24	60.0%	20
13	MIAMI FL	46	11	80.7%	3	73	AKRON	27	18	60.0%	17
14	LOUISVILLE	45	11	80.4%	6	74	HOUSTON	31	21	59.6%	17
15	AUBURN	51	13	79.7%	6	75	RICE	26	18	59.1%	22
16	NEBRASKA	51	13	79.7%	9	76	UCF	30	21	58.8%	20
17	USF	43	11	79.6%	10	77	SAN JOSE ST	27	19	58.7%	21
18	TOLEDO	42	11	79.2%	11	78	IOWA ST	34	24	58.6%	27
19	BOSTON COLL	45	12	78.9%	9	79	NORTHWESTERN	31	24	56.4%	29
20	MICHIGAN	48	13	78.7%	5	80	UAB	27	21	56.3%	16
21	OREGON ST	43	12	78.2%	10	81	UTEP	29	23	55.8%	22
22	IOWA	45	13	77.6%	14	82	CENTRAL MICH	26	21	55.3%	22
23	OREGON	44	13	77.2%	5	83	FLA ATLANTIC	21	17	55.3%	8
24	FRESNO ST	39	12	76.5%	10	84	MEMPHIS	31	26	54.4%	19
25	WKU	41	13	75.9%	3	85	WAKE FOREST	30	26	53.6%	21
26	CINCINNATI	40	13	75.5%	17	86	WASH ST	30	26	53.6%	22
27	MARYLAND	43	14	75.4%	18	87	BALL ST	25	22	53.2%	20
28	PENN ST	46	15	75.4%	14	88	EAST CAROLINA	26	23	53.1%	21
29	FLORIDA ST	42	14	75.0%	4	89	SYRACUSE	29	26	52.7%	24
30	UTAH	39	13	75.0%	5	90	OHIO	24	22	52.2%	17
31	MARSHALL	39	13	75.0%	11	91	NAVY	25	23	52.1%	16
32	HAWAII	55	19	74.3%	19	92	ILLINOIS	29	27	51.8%	23
33	WISCONSIN	46	16	74.2%	12	93	RUTGERS	30	28	51.7%	26
34	WEST VIRGINIA	43	15	74.1%	12	94	NORTH CAROLINA	28	28	50.0%	26
35	TENNESSEE	45	16	73.8%	9	95	WASHINGTON	29	29	50.0%	27
36	VIRGINIA	42	15	73.7%	23	96	TULANE	26	26	50.0%	30
37	CLEMSON	44	16	73.3%	13	97	NORTH TEXAS	22	23	48.9%	22
38	N ILLINOIS	37	14	72.5%	11	98	KENTUCKY	29	31	48.3%	29
39	BYU	39	15	72.2%	7	99	WYOMING	25	27	48.1%	26
40	KANSAS ST	45	18	71.4%	12	100	INDIANA	27	30	47.4%	32
41	PURDUE	41	18	69.5%	10	101	NEW MEX ST	23	27	46.0%	25
42	ARKANSAS	45	20	69.2%	18	102	LOUISIANA	22	26	45.8%	20
43	GEORGIA TECH	39	18	68.4%	13	103	UTAH ST	20	24	45.5%	27
44	ARIZONA ST	41	19	68.3%	12	104	MISS ST	25	31	44.6%	31
45	UCLA	38	18	67.9%	17	105	STANFORD	23	30	43.4%	32
46	BOWLING GRN	31	15	67.4%	7	106	ARIZONA	25	34	42.4%	32
47	SOUTHERN MISS	33	16	67.3%	4	107	UNLV	22	30	42.3%	24
48	CALIFORNIA	37	18	67.3%	13	108	BAYLOR	24	33	42.1%	37
49	MISSOURI	37	18	67.3%	13	109	E MICHIGAN	19	27	41.3%	27
50	ALABAMA	43	21	67.2%	12	110	SAN DIEGO ST	21	30	41.2%	29
51	PITTSBURGH	38	19	66.7%	15	111	KENT	19	28	40.4%	23
52	LOUIS TECH	29	15	65.9%	14	112	ULM	18	27	40.0%	21
53	OKLA ST	37	20	64.9%	24	113	FIU	17	26	39.5%	13
54	W MICHIGAN	31	17	64.6%	15	114	SMU	20	33	37.7%	32
55	MIDDLE TENN	29	16	64.4%	6	115	IDAHO	15	27	35.7%	26
56	S CAROLINA	39	22	63.9%	22	116	VANDERBILT	20	38	34.5%	32
57	COLO ST	31	18	63.3%	11	117	TEMPLE	16	34	32.0%	35
58	TEXAS A&M	37	22	62.7%	19	118	BUFFALO	15	33	31.3%	36
59	KANSAS	37	22	62.7%	23	119	ARMY	13	36	26.5%	36
60	NOTRE DAME	35	21	62.5%	15	120	DUKE	10	44	18.5%	43
							FBS TOTALS	4109	2385	63.3%

It is no surprise that Boise St is atop the list as their blue uniforms blend in with the blue turf giving them a unique advantage. Only one team has beaten them at home during the regular season and that was way back in 2001 when a Wash St team that finished 10-2 and #10 in the polls beat them 41-20. Their other home loss was in a bowl game vs Boston College 27-21 in 2005. While Boise has an incredible home record it must be factored in that they have played just 5 BCS conference schools at home this decade and are 3-2 60% in those games. The makes Oklahoma's record of 55-2 even more remarkable. Almost all of their home games have been vs BCS foes and ironically one of their two home losses was to a non BCS school when TCU beat them in 2005. Their other loss came when they were a 4 TD favorite to beat rival Oklahoma St which came into the game just 3-7 and that was the game that put Les Miles on the map. Oklahoma was caught looking ahead to their Big 12 title game vs Colorado the next week but that loss knocked them
out of the game.

Nine teams have single digit losses at home this decade. Texas (4), Troy (5), Ohio St (8) TCU (7) and USC (8) have all lost less than 1 game at home per year. Virginia Tech and Florida have lost just 9 each (1 per year). Here are some schools that rank near the top that the casual college football fan probably would not expect. Texas Tech is 47-10 at home this decade with Lubbock an out the way location with a loud home crowd. Louisville is off two straight disappointing seasons but is 45-11 in Papa Johns. Toledo was a horrible 1-5 in the Glass bowl last year and that dropped them all the way to #18 as they had been 41-6 in the eight years prior. Cincinnati is a surprising 40-13 at home this decade and Maryland is 43-14. Northern Illinois is one of the loudest places to play despite the small capacity but they are 37-14 at home.

Is there an advantage to playing at home? The 120 FBS teams have a combined home record of 4109-2385 which means that they win 63.3% of their home games. Also there are 96 of the 120 teams that have a record of .500 or better at home and just 24 teams that have a losing record at home this decade.

Let me take a closer look at the teams at the bottom of the list. All 24 teams listed above that had losing records at home have losing records overall this decade. There are 8 BCS conference schools on the list in Kentucky, Indiana, Miss St, Stanford, Arizona, Baylor, Vanderbilt and Duke. When Duke wins opposing players usually say they were lulled to sleep by the high school sized crowds and they have pulled some upsets like upsetting Clemson in 2004 and Georgia Tech in 2003 but 3 of their 10 wins at home this decade have been vs FCS or 1AA foes so they are actually 7-44 at home vs FBS teams this decade.

That got me thinking of how many times a team has been an underdog at home this decade. Is there any team in the country that has not been an underdog even once at home? The answer is yes and it is Texas which has been favored in all 54 home games this decade and has lost 4 of those. Florida has been a home dog just once in the "Swamp" and that was vs Florida St a game they did lose 38-34. Oklahoma was actually a dog once at home this decade and they beat Nebraska in 2000 31-14. Vegas linesmakers knew what they were doing with Boise St as they have been a home dog just twice this decade and those were their two home losses.

It probably does not surprise you that Duke has been a home dog 43 times this decade which is the most of any school. Baylor has actually been expected to lose at home in 37 of their games this decade (2nd most) but are only 13th worst in home record at 24-33.

That got me looking at two more scenarios. First of all which teams have been overrated at home. I took the amount of times a team was expected to lose at home (an underdog) and subtracted the amount of actual losses they suffered at home. There are 11 teams who lost 8 games (or more) than the amount of games they were expected to lose at home and the list is a little surprising. Southern Miss lost 16 games at home and were a dog only 4 times which puts them at the top of the list with 12. Here are the 11 teams that lost 8+ more games at home than was expected.
1. Southern Miss 12
2. Florida St 10
3. Alabama 9
4. Florida, Miami Florida, Michigan, Oregon, Utah, Bowling Green, BYU, Purdue, Air Force all tied with 8.

Now lets take a look at the underrated home teams from this decade. I know Virginia has been a much better team at home than on the road. They are 42-15 at home and just 17-32 when playing on the road. It surprises me that they have been expected to lose (underdog) 23 times at home this decade and yet they have lost just 15 times. That is 8 full games better than expected and that is by far the best in the FBS. As you would expect the numbers are a lot lower for teams who actually have less losses at home than games they were expected to lose. There are only 20 teams that made this list so let me list them all below.
1. Virginia 8
2. Northwestern 5
3. Tied with 4 are Baylor, Tulane, Oklahoma St, Nevada, Rice, Maryland and Cincinnati.
4. Tied with 3 are Buffalo, Utah St, Iowa St
5. Tied with 2 are Stanford, Indiana, San Jose St
6. Tied with 1 are Iowa, Troy, Central Michigan, Kansas and Temple.

Tomorrow I take a look at the best road teams this decade.

54 DAYS UNTIL FOOTBALL SEASON!