Phil Steele's Daily Blog - July 11th - 12th

Yesterday I took a look at the best and worst home teams this decade and today I take a look at the road warriors. Here are the current away records this decade.

		AWAY	AWAY		# of Times			AWAY	AWAY		# of Times
		W's	L's		Fav on RD			W's	L's		Fav on RD
1	TEXAS	36	5	87.8%	37	61	EAST CAROLINA	21	33	38.9%	19
2	GEORGIA	32	6	84.2%	27	62	MEMPHIS	18	29	38.3%	14
3	OKLAHOMA	30	8	78.9%	31	63	OKLA ST	18	29	38.3%	14
4	BOISE ST	40	12	76.9%	40	64	TULSA	21	34	38.2%	25
5	OHIO STATE	32	10	76.2%	34	65	MISSOURI	16	26	38.1%	19
6	USC	38	12	76.0%	42	66	MICHIGAN ST	17	28	37.8%	17
7	VIRGINIA TECH	31	13	70.5%	31	67	FAU	18	30	37.5%	5
8	MIAMI FL	32	15	68.1%	33	68	TROY	23	39	37.1%	14
9	LSU	26	14	65.0%	25	69	MINNESOTA	17	29	37.0%	18
10	FLORIDA	24	13	64.9%	27	70	CONNECTICUT	18	31	36.7%	12
11	TENNESSEE	27	15	64.3%	22	71	KANSAS ST	15	26	36.6%	23
12	TCU	33	19	63.5%	32	72	W MICHIGAN	20	35	36.4%	20
13	WEST VIRGINIA	29	17	63.0%	28	73	RUTGERS	16	30	34.8%	10
14	LOUISVILLE	30	18	62.5%	33	74	VIRGINIA	17	32	34.7%	17
15	OREGON	29	18	61.7%	24	75	UCF	19	36	34.5%	17
16	UTAH	30	20	60.0%	33	76	MISSISSIPPI	15	29	34.1%	12
17	FLORIDA ST	27	19	58.7%	36	77	HOUSTON	17	33	34.0%	16
18	MICHIGAN	25	18	58.1%	30	78	CENTRAL MICH	19	37	33.9%	16
19	AUBURN	23	17	57.5%	18	79	ARIZONA	15	30	33.3%	6
20	GEORGIA TECH	27	20	57.4%	19	80	MARSHALL	18	36	33.3%	21
21	BYU	29	23	55.8%	27	81	AKRON	19	39	32.8%	17
22	WISCONSIN	25	20	55.6%	25	82	MIDDLE TENN	19	39	32.8%	18
23	BOSTON COLL	26	21	55.3%	23	83	NEVADA	18	37	32.7%	19
24	NOTRE DAME	23	20	53.5%	14	84	STANFORD	16	33	32.7%	7
25	BOWLING GRN	30	27	52.6%	24	85	N CAROLINA	16	33	32.7%	9
26	CLEMSON	22	20	52.4%	20	86	WASHINGTON	14	32	30.4%	10
27	SOUTHERN MISS	29	27	51.8%	29	87	UAB	17	39	30.4%	13
28	FRESNO ST	30	28	51.7%	28	88	ILLINOIS	13	30	30.2%	13
29	PITTSBURGH	24	23	51.1%	22	89	OHIO	17	41	29.3%	16
30	WKU	28	28	50.0%	0	90	NORTH TEXAS	17	42	28.8%	13
31	MIAMI OH	30	31	49.2%	24	91	RICE	16	40	28.6%	12
32	TEXAS TECH	24	25	49.0%	25	92	SAN JOSE ST	17	44	27.9%	11
33	WASH ST	23	25	47.9%	17	93	UTEP	15	39	27.8%	12
34	Air Force	23	25	47.9%	19	94	LOUIS TECH	17	45	27.4%	17
35	NAVY	18	21	46.2%	8	95	KENT	15	41	26.8%	10
36	NEW MEXICO	24	28	46.2%	15	96	KANSAS	11	31	26.2%	8
37	OREGON ST	23	27	46.0%	21	97	VANDERBILT	12	34	26.1%	6
38	WAKE FOREST	22	26	45.8%	14	98	UNLV	14	40	25.9%	12
39	USF	22	26	45.8%	19	99	IOWA ST	12	35	25.5%	9
40	MARYLAND	21	25	45.7%	17	##	KENTUCKY	11	33	25.0%	6
41	NEBRASKA	19	23	45.2%	26	##	LOUISIANA	14	42	25.0%	12
42	ALABAMA	18	22	45.0%	19	##	SYRACUSE	12	37	24.5%	11
43	TOLEDO	23	29	44.2%	20	##	SAN DIEGO ST	13	42	23.6%	6
44	CINCINNATI	23	29	44.2%	21	##	TULANE	12	40	23.1%	7
45	N ILLINOIS	23	29	44.2%	25	##	ULM	13	46	22.0%	4
46	S CAROLINA	19	24	44.2%	14	##	MISS ST	10	38	20.8%	12
47	HAWAII	19	24	44.2%	19	##	NEW MEX ST	11	46	19.3%	12
48	ARKANSAS	17	22	43.6%	10	##	FIU	8	34	19.0%	2
49	NC STATE	19	25	43.2%	16	##	ARK ST	10	46	17.9%	9
50	BALL ST	25	33	43.1%	14	##	WYOMING	9	43	17.3%	6
51	NORTHWESTERN	21	28	42.9%	12	##	INDIANA	8	39	17.0%	4
52	COLO ST	21	28	42.9%	18	##	TEMPLE	9	44	17.0%	6
53	CALIFORNIA	21	28	42.9%	22	##	BUFFALO	9	47	16.1%	0
54	IOWA	19	26	42.2%	17	##	UTAH ST	8	51	13.6%	7
55	UCLA	20	28	41.7%	23	##	IDAHO	8	53	13.1%	9
56	PURDUE	19	27	41.3%	23	##	ARMY	6	40	13.0%	3
57	TEXAS A&M	18	26	40.9%	15	##	E MICHIGAN	7	47	13.0%	2
58	ARIZONA ST	18	27	40.0%	16	##	BAYLOR	6	41	12.8%	4
59	COLORADO	17	26	39.5%	14	##	SMU	6	46	11.5%	7
60	PENN ST	17	26	39.5%	22	##	DUKE	4	46	8.0%	1
							FBS TOTALS	2340	3562	39.6%

The king of the road warriors is Texas which is 36-5 on the road this decade. I know that Mark Richt has a great record in opposing home stadiums and this is shown by Georgia's 32-6 record on the road this decade. The usual suspects are at the top with Oklahoma, Boise St, USC, Virginia Tech, Miami Florida, LSU and Tennessee all winning over 64% of the time on the road. Yesterday I pointed out that the average home winning percentage for all 120 FBS teams was 63.3% (4109-2385). The 120 teams are a combined 2340-3562 on the road or just 39.6%. Yes, those numbers add up to more than 100% but that is because wins at home and on the road vs FCS teams (1AA) only count in the win column and not the loss column.

Yesterday I pointed out that just 24 teams had a losing record at home this decade. The numbers are similar on the road with just 29 teams able to post winning records away from home this decade. Those 29 teams basically looks like a listing of the whose who in college football but there are a few surprises. Bowling Green and Georgia Tech are not known as being powerhouses but make that list.

The teams at the bottom of the list are the usual suspects with Duke taking the title for worst home record and worst road record of the decade. The only teams that have been regularly in the postseason as of late that are in the bottom 25 are Kansas (26%) and Kentucky (25%).

Yesterday I took at look at home teams and the amount of wins they had as compared to the amount of times they were expected to lose (underdog). Today I look at road teams and the amount of wins they had as opposed to the amount of times they were expected to win on the road. First let me take a look at which teams have been favored the most on the road this decade. The winner is USC at 42 times or nearly 5 times a year. They have been favored
in 42 of their 50 road games. Here is the top ten. 1. USC (42) 2. Boise St (40) 3. Texas (37) 4. Florida St (36) 5. Ohio State (34) 6. Miami Florida (33) 6. Louisville (33) 6. Utah (33) 9. TCU (32) 10 Virginia Tech (31) 10 Oklahoma (31).

Only one team has never been favored or expected to win a road game this decade and that is Buffalo. The others that have been favored on the road 4 times or less are 1 time - Duke 2 times Eastern Michigan, Florida International 3 times Army 4 times Baylor, Indiana, ULMonroe.

Here are the teams that have underperformed on the road this decade. Florida St has been favored to win 36 games on the road this decade but has only won 27 of them for -9. There are 8 teams that have won 4 or fewer times than they have been favored this decade. I will list them in order and the number in parenthesis is the amount of times they have been favored minus the amount of actual road wins. Kansas St (8), Nebraska (7), Michigan (5), Penn St (5), USC (4), Tulsa (4) and Purdue (4).

Now lets look at the teams that outperform expectations on the road. The team that has done the best is Ball St as they have been expected (favorite) to win just 14 road games but they have actually won 25 games on the road or +11. Here are the other teams that do better than expected on the road. Navy +10, New Mexico +9, Notre Dame +9, Troy +9, Northwestern +9, Stanford +9, Arizona +9, ULMonroe +9, Buffalo +9, Georgia Tech +8, Wake Forest +8, Arkansas +7, North Carolina +7 and San Diego St +7. I find it interesting that Notre Dame has only been expected to win 14 times on the road this decade yet are 23-20.

Tomorrow I take a look at the biggest disparities between home and away record this decade.

53 DAYS UNTIL FOOTBALL SEASON!