Daily Blog • Wednesday, November 11th

 

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

 

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 160-43 78.8% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 15 out of 26 times including 4-0 last week with Colorado, ULM, Kansas St, and Illinois all getting the upset! Combined the first ten week record is 175-54 76.4%!!


#1 FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FLORIDA 208
130
26
1.5
••••
S CAROLINA
82
220
11
2.6
–
South Carolina Head Coach Steve Spurrier faces his former team and Florida’s 56-6 win over Carolina last year was Spurrier’s worst loss as a head coach. The Gators are 17-1 in the series. The Gamecocks pulled the upset in ‘05 and came within a missed field goal of the upset in ‘06, but has lost the last two by 35 points per game being outgained by 250 yards per game. South Carolina has lost 3 of their last 4 games and is off a 33-16 loss to Arkansas in which the Razorbacks scored 23 unanswered points in the second half. The Gamecocks lost their last three in ‘08 and last six games in ‘07. This is Carolina’s 10th straight game, but they have a bye on deck. Florida is off a lackluster 27-3 win over Vanderbilt in which they had a 375-199 yard edge. Gamecock quarterback Stephen Garcia is ahead of Tim Tebow in the SEC’s passer rankings averaging 242 yards per game (58%) with a 13-6 ratio while Tebow is averaging 170 yards per game (66%) with an 11-4 ratio but is the team’s top rusher with 578 yards (3.7 yards per carry). This is both teams final regular season SEC game, but the Gators have already clinched the SEC East Title. Tebow makes Spurrier pay for not naming him 1st Team SEC way back in July.
PHIL’S FORECAST : FLORIDA 34 SOUTH CAROLINA 10


 

#3 ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ALABAMA 161
175
27
2.0
•
MISS ST
149
185
16
3.1
–
Bama scored 26 points (directly or indirectly) on special teams including an 80-yard punt return touchdown by Arenas in their 32-7 win over Mississippi St last year. The dynamics have changed for this game as under former MSU head coach Sylvester Croom it was probably his biggest game of the year as he coached and played at Bama and wanted the Bama head coaching job. Mississippi St has 2 outright upsets in the last 3 years. (In the last four years Bama has TWO offensive touchdowns and one of those was a 2-yard drive after a long punt return! MSU is off a late season bye and Bama is off a huge game vs LSU in which the Tide clinched the SEC West Title with their 24-15 win. LSU led 15-10 into the fourth quarter, but Bama scored the final 14 points and had a dominating 452-253 yard and 24-13 first down edges. MSU has been better than expected with 2 SEC wins and outgained ranked LSU and Georgia Tech in close losses. Two strong running backs battle it out with MSU’s Anthony Dixon (1001 yards, 5.5 yards per carry) facing off vs Alabama’s Mark Ingram (1148 yards, 6.6 ypc). Bama’s #3 Defense is only allowing 68 rush yards per game (2.3 yards per carry) while MSU’s #31 Defense is allowing 147 rush yards per game (3.8 ypc). Because this is a letdown spot for Bama, I think Mississippi St will keep it closer than most expect.
PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 24 MISS ST 10

 

 

 

#5 CINCINNATI vs WEST VIRGINIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
W VIRGINIA 158
150
18
2.4
–
CINCINNATI
147
345
33
1.7
•

Both teams should have a lot of offensive success. There are many playmakers on both sides that can take it to the house whenever they touch the ball. It should be an exciting game to watch.

PHIL’S FORECAST : Cincinnati 37 W Virginia 30

 

 

 

#7 GEORIGA TECH at DUKE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
GA TECH 344
105
38
1.8
–
DUKE
51
305
27
2.3
–
Georgia Tech is 13-1 in the series (only loss in Durham in 2003). Yellow Jacket Quarterback Jaybo Shaw made his 1st career start last year vs Duke passing for a season high 230 yards (64%) with a 1-0 ratio. Duke had a season low 132 yards vs Tech who had 474 yards last year as GT rolled 27-0 at home. This is the Jackets 3rd road game in 4 weeks but they have a bye on deck. Last time here GT had a 477-146 yard edge and won 41-24. Tech QB Josh Nesbitt is averaging 122 yards per game passing (45%) with a 6-4 ratio but has rushed for 817 yards (3.9 yards per carry). GT running back Jonathan Dwyer has 1,093 rush yards (6.5 ypc). The Yellow Jackets have a large offensive edge (#3-70). Duke quarterback Thaddeus Lewis is averaging 270 yards per game passing (62%) with a 15-5 ratio. Tech is on a 7 game win streak and a win here will send the Yellow Jackets to the ACC Champ game in Tampa. A Duke win, means they only need 1 more to become bowl eligible for the 1st time since 1994.
PHIL’S FORECAST : GEORGIA TECH 34 DUKE 24

 

 

#9 LSU vs LOUISIANA TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LA TECH 75
155
7
1.8
–
LSU
185
265
35
1.6
•••
LSU leads this series 17-1. In the two recent meetings (2003 and 2007) the Tigers won by an average of 54-10 with a 624-298 yards per game edge! La Tech quarterback Ross Jenkins is averaging 176 yards per game (59%) with a 12-5 ratio and tight end Dennis Morris has 27 receptions (16.1 yards per catch) and has been Jenkins’ top target. Running back Daniel Porter has 732 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and is the staple of the Bulldogs’ running game. For the 3rd consecutive season LSU will host a non-conference game between a Bama/Ole Miss sandwich. Last year the Tigers trailed Troy 31-6 in the 3rd quarter in a similar situation before winning 40-31 and the last time LSU and La Tech met (‘07) the Tigers won 58-10 when they also just returned from Tuscaloosa and with a trip to Oxford on deck. LSU Starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson (171 yards per game, 63%, 12-4 ratio) left with an ankle injury but is expected to play and running back Charles Scott (542 yards, 4.7 yards per carry) is likely out for year with a collarbone injury. The Tigers also feature a pair of tall bookend wide receivers in the 6’5” Terrance Toliver (42 receptions, 13.0 yards per catch) and the 6’3” Brandon LaFell (41 receptions, 12.3 ypc) who present a major challenge for La Tech’s defensive backs. Both teams are coming off hard-fought losses to undefeated teams last week as La Tech fell 45-35 to Boise while LSU lost 24-15 to Bama. Look for the Tigers to lick their wounds vs a Bulldog team staggering on the road (0-5) facing its 2nd SEC team this year (lost 37-13 in opener at Auburn).
PHIL’S FORECAST : LSU 34 LOUISIANA TECH 10

 

#11 USC vs #25 STANFORD
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STANFORD 185
210
27
1.8
•••
USC
220
285
34
1.8
–
It’s hard to forget the last trip Stanford made to the Coliseum back in 2007 as they pulled off the biggest upset in NCAA history knocking off the #2 Trojans and ending their streak of 35 straight home wins. USC returns home for the 1st time since having their BCS Title balloon deflated a few weeks back and could be out of the January Bowl picture for the 1st time since 2001 (Carroll’s 1st season). After sneaking by ASU last week in Tempe, the USC defense has allowed 452 yards per game over the last four games (allowed 239 yards per game in 1st 5 games this year). Stanford became bowl eligible last week handing Oregon its 1st conference loss of the season as running back Toby Gerhart (135 yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry, 16 TD) broke a school record with 223 yards rushing on 38 attempts (5.9 yards per carry). There is no love lost between Carroll and Harbaugh and last year Stanford lined up for a field foal with :03 left trailing 45-17 but after Carroll called a timeout, Harbaugh brought the offense back on the field and got an 18 yard touchdown pass. In this now heated rivalry, expect the unexpected and some potential crazy antics out of the 2 head coaches here if the situation presents itself.
PHIL’S FORECAST : USC 30 STANFORD 24

 

#13 HOUSTON AT UCF
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOUSTON 75
463
34
2.2
–
UCF
216
253
32
2.0
••
UCF is 12-6 in November. Last met in 2006 and the home team has won the last two. Houston is on their 2nd straight away game and UCF is 4-1 at home in Bright House Stadium this year. The Knights are off a 35-3 loss at Texas where they were actually competitive for three quarters as they only trailed 14-3 at half and 21-3 at the end of the 3rd. They played without starting quarterback Brett Hodges (ribs) and leading rusher Brynn Harvey (679 yards, 3.9 yards per carry), who were both held out to heal for CUSA play. UCF has the best front 7 in CUSA, but are young in the secondary (2 true freshman starters). That could pose problems as they face a Houston team that is #1 in NCAA averaging 434 pass yards per game. The Cougs are off a stunning 46-45 win at Tulsa as they trailed by 8 and scored with :21 left to pull within 2, but did not get the 2 point conversion. They then recovered the onside kick and after 2 passes red-shirt freshman kicker Matt Hogan kicked a career-long 51 yard field goal (previous long 34 yards) as time expired for the win. Quarterback Case Keenum is #1 in the NCAA averaging 424 yards per game (71%) with a 28-5 ratio. Wide receiver James Cleveland leads with 74 receptions (11.5 yards per catch) and 11 touchdowns, 5 of which have come the last two weeks. UCF should be able to pressure Keenum and Houston could be due for an emotional letdown, so the Knights should keep it close.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : HOUSTON 33 UCF 30

 

#17 OKLAHOMA ST vs TEXAS TECH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS TECH -7
345
26
3.3
–
OKLAHOMA ST
237
215
33
2.2
•
The Raiders are 18-9-1 vs OSU but the visitor has dropped 7 in a row by 14 points per game. With quarterback Steven Sheffield (2 starts, 362 yards per game, 77%, 8-1 ratio) dealing with a foot injury and Seth Doege’s struggles (1 start, 146 yards, 72%), Taylor Potts (278 yards per game, 67%, 15-9) who looked like he regained his confidence in the 2nd half of the Kansas game, should get the nod here. Oklahoma St beat Iowa St last week bouncing back from the Texas loss but is in a tough sandwich with a Thurs Night game next. Quarterback Zac Robinson is averaging 204 yards per game (65%) with a 14-7 ratio. OSU is ranked #14 in our pass efficiency defense allowing 237 yards per game (56%) with an 11-11 ratio while Texas Tech comes in at #36 (233 yards per game, 63%, 8-5 ratio). The winner will position them self for a better bowl invite. The Cowboys are like the Raiders in the fact that they play better at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OKLAHOMA ST 34 TX TECH 24

 

 

#19 PENN ST vs INDIANA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
INDIANA 74
208
11
2.1
••
PENN ST
217
283
37
1.9
–
This series has been one-sided as the Hoosiers are 0-12 vs the Lions. Penn St has won 5 in a row at home over Indy by 26 points per game. Last year, Penn St were off their title game deflating loss to Iowa and had a 23-6 first down edge in a 34-7 home win. This year the Lions had their Rose Bowl dreams crushed by OSU who used their defense and special teams to hold PSU to the fewest points (7) and yards (201) in quarterback’s Daryll Clark’s two years as a starter. PSU trailed just 10-7 at the half, but the Buckeyes outgained them 194-82 in the 2nd half as the Lions reached OSU territory only on their last two touches (OSU 47). Running back Evan Royster (895 yards, 5.7 yards per carry) bruised his knee in warm ups prior to the game and was a non-factor (36 yards, 2.8 yards per carry). PSU has allowed one 1st half touchdown at home this year on a 9-yard drive last week. The Hoosiers are 0-3 on the road in the Big Ten this year. The Hoosiers were dominated in the 1st half but hung tough vs Wisconsin last week despite being out-rushed 294-63 as quarterback Ben Chappell hit 25-35 for 323 with a 3-2 ratio. Wide receiver Tandon Doss (65 receptions, 13.0 ypc) leads the league in all-purpose yards. Indiana is #83 in pass efficiency defense (250 yards per game, 60%, 16-14 ratio). The Hoosiers must win to go to a bowl, but the Lions need to get the bad taste out of their mouth after last week’s loss.    

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : PENN ST 45 INDIANA 10

 

 

#21 WISCONSIN vs MICHIGAN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MICHIGAN 125
170
24
3.1
•••
WISCONSIN
255
235
39
1.9
–
Last time here the Wolverines rested quarterback Chad Henne and running back Mike Hart with the Big 10 title game on deck and Wisconsin won 37-21. Last year Wisconsin led 19-0 at the half in the Big House but lost 27-25 for the biggest comeback in Michigan Stadium history. Last week, the Badgers dominated the 1st half and had a 294-63 yard rush edge but could never pull away from Indiana in a 31-28 win as Hoosier quarterback Ben Chappell hit 25 of 35 for 323 yards. The Big 10’s leading rusher John Clay (973 yards, 5.1 yards per carry) missed the second half vs Indiana due to a concussion but expects to play this week. The Badgers lead the Big 10 in rush defense in conference play (72 yards per game, 2.5 yards per carry). Michigan blew a 24-10 halftime lead last week to Purdue as a Wolves fumble set up a Boilers 1 play 19-yard touchdown run and an onside kick recovery set up a 54-yard touchdown bomb to take the lead. The Wolves missed an extra point in the 3rd quarter which forced them to go for 2 (which they missed) when they scored with 2:10 left as Purdue hung on for their 1st win in Ann Arbor since 1966. Quarterback Tate Forcier (185 yards per game, 52%, 5-4 ratio in conf play) went the distance vs the Boilers. Michigan is allowing 33 points per game and 440 yards per game in Big 10 play.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WISCONSIN 38 MICHIGAN 23

 

 

#22 BYU at NEW MEXICO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BYU 195
293
44
2.0
•••
NEW MEXICO
61
258
13
2.6
–
BYU Head Coach Mendenhall was the defensive coordinator at New Mexico, when they were installing the 3-3-5. Last year New Mexico was called for a phantom 4th quarter illegal block which wiped out a touchdown (would’ve pulled them within 4) and former Head Coach Rocky Long complained for weeks. Last time here, New Mexico trailed 28-24 with 7:24 left. They held BYU and had momentum but fumbled the punt and BYU won 31-24. BYU is off its 2nd consecutive shutout of Wyoming, 52-0. Quarterback Max Hall passed for a season-high 4 touchdowns and on the year is averaging 283 yards per game (71%) with a 21-11 ratio. Wide Receiver McKay Jacobson returned after missing 4 and led last week with 3 receptions for 100 yards. Running back Harvey Unga is the top rusher with 783 yards (5.6 yards per carry). Despite only being down by 10 at the half to Utah, New Mexico was handed their 9th loss, 45-14. After struggling to begin the year, quarterback Donovan Porterie seemed to finally find his confidence in the new system, but was held to just 15 of 32 for 186 yards with 2 interceptions last week (averaging 253 yards per game, 56%, 8-5 ratio last 6). His favorite target is wide receiver Victor James (24 receptions, 12.1 yards per catch) and the top rusher is Demond Dennis with just 260 yards (4.6 ypc). New Mexico could go winless for the 1st time since 1987 as BYU names the score here.  

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : BYU 48 NEW MEXICO 10

 

 

 

A PERFECT 4-0 LAST WEEK!!!
Upsets of the Week:
VANDERBILT OVER KENTUCKY
COLORADO OVER IOWA ST
ARIZONA OVER CALIFORNIA
MARSHALL OVER SOUTHERN MISS

 

 

 

 

#2 TEXAS at BAYLOR
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEXAS 138
308
40
1.8
–
BAYLOR
58
203
11
3.3
••••••
Under Head Coach Mack Brown, Texas is 11-0 vs Baylor with the average score being 48-11. The Horns have scored 30+ in every game while the defense has posted 4 shutouts.  The Horns are off an easy non-conference win vs UCF (+386 yards) and has won 13 straight (22 of last 23). Quarterback Colt McCoy is averaging 272 yards per game (73%) with a 17-9 ratio (470 yards last week). Wide receiver Jordan Shipley has 75 receptions (14.0 yards per catch) and last week posted a Texas single game best 273 yards (24.8 yards per catch). Baylor stunned Missouri last week as the 40 points scored were 6 more than all of their other Big 12 games combined coming in. Baylor still has been outscored by 14 points per game and outgained by 117 yards per game in Big 12 play. Quarterback Nick Florence is averaging 264 yards per game (62%) with a 5-4 ratio in his 5 starts and last week passed for a Baylor freshman record 427 yards. This will be the Bears home finale. Texas is ranked #2 in our pass efficiency defense allowing 175 yards per game (53%) with a 9-16 ratio while Baylor comes in at #63 (235 yards per game, 61%, 10-9). The Horns have huge advantages across the board (offense #2-61, defense #1-66 and special teams #1-92) and with their sights set on a National Title will not take the Bears lightly.
PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS 45 BAYLOR 10

 

#4 TCU vs #16 Utah
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
UTAH 112
103
9
2.2
–
TCU
229
223
35
2.1
•
TCU’s only win vs Utah was a 23-20 OT showdown here in ‘05. Last year TCU, on a short week, jumped out to a 10-0 lead and had a 208-119 yard edge at the half. TCU missed a pair of 4th quarter field goals then the Utes got a 9-yard touchdown pass with :48 left for their 1st lead. TCU was then intercepted at the Utah 15. In Frog fashion, TCU beat San Diego St 55-12 last week putting up 551 total yards (back-to-back 500 yard games) including 312 rushing (1st 300-yard game since 2000). TCU is outscoring MWC foes 40-8 and the defense has allowed just 2 touchdowns the last 4 games. TCU has not even allowed an opponent inside the red zone in the last 10 quarters! Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 209 yards per game (64%) with a 16-3 ratio and has 341 rushing yards (4.4 yards per carry). He has 3 receivers with 20+ grabs and the top rusher is Joseph Turner (560 yards, 5.1 yards per carry, 9 touchdowns). Last week Utah’s running back Eddie Wide (809 yards, 6.2 ypc, 8 touchdowns) went over 100 yards for the 6th straight game (Utah record). Only up 10 at half, his 122 yards in the 3rd quarter sparked an offensive explosion as the Utes beat New Mexico 45-14. True Freshman quarterback Jordan Wynn got his 1st start and threw for 297 yards with a 2-1 ratio (Back-up Terrence Cain did see action late). While Utah plays well vs ranked foes, TCU has its eyes on the prize and doesn’t get sidetracked even with the visit by ESPN College Gameday here.
PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 34 UTAH 7

 

#6 BOISE ST vs IDAHO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IDAHO 107
170
21
2.9
–
BOISE ST
188
345
52
1.2
•••
It has been all Broncos in the last decade as they have won 10 consecutive games averaging 50 points per game and winning by 33 points per game. Idaho has lost the last five in Boise by 39 points per game! The Vandals are bowl-eligible for the 1st time since 1999. Idaho QB Nathan Enderle is averaging 267 yards per game (62%) with a 15-9 ratio but missed last week with a rotator cuff injury (game-time decision). Wide Receiver Max Komar leads with 54 receptions (16.2 yards per catch) and running back DeMaundray Woolridge has 651 yards (5.7 ypc). Boise quarterback Kellen Moore is averaging 251 yards per game (68%) with a 27-3 ratio and is #1 in the NCAA in pass efficiency (169.35) and is earning Heisman attention. Wide receivers Austin Pettis (50 receptions, 13.2 yards per catch) and Titus Young (49 receptions, 12.3 ypc) are his top targets while running back Jeremy Avery has 782 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and highlights a strong running game. These two instate foes have positioned themselves well in the WAC race, but make no mistake about it, Boise is the gem in this Spud State match-up.
PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 51 IDAHO 16

 

#8 PITTSBURGH vs NOTRE DAME
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NOTRE DAME 90
303
20
2.0
–
PITTSBURGH
191
253
32
1.5
•
Notre Dame is 9-3 in the series. Last year Pitt rallied from a 17-3 1st half deficit defeating ND 36-33 in 4OT, the longest game in both school’s histories. ND has pulled back-to-back upsets here vs #15 (‘03) and #23  (‘05) Panther ranked teams. Last week Pitt dominated Syracuse 37-10 despite leaving many more points off the board. Quarterback Bill Stull is averaging 209 yards per game (68%) with a 17-4 ratio and running back Dion Lewis is averaging 127 yards per game (5.6 ypc), which is good for #7 in the NCAA. The defense has an NCAA leading 39 sacks (ND has allowed 19). The Irish are off a disappointing 23-21 loss to Navy dropping them out of the BCS hunt. Notre Dame is now 3-16 vs teams with a winning record. ND had 512 yards, scored with :24 left but their onside kick went out-of-bounds. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen (308 yards per game, 68%, 20-3 ratio) now has wide receiver Michael Floyd back from injury (10 receptions, 14.1 ypc last week) to join the #3 wide receiver in NCAA Golden Tate (65 receptions, 16.3 ypc, 10 TD). This game features 2 top offenses and a top defense, but Pitt’s 1 loss came vs NCSt (#17 NCAA pass, 281 yards per game) where they allowed 530 total yards and ND has the NCAA’s #5 pass offense (326 yards per game). The Irish should keep it close as #8 Pitt may be looking ahead to rival West Virginia and a possible Big East Championship vs #5 Cincy while Weis must win this game.
PHIL’S FORECAST : PITTSBURGH 30 NOTRE DAME 27


#10 OHIO ST vs #15 IOWA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
IOWA 40
150
6
3.3
–
OHIO ST
180
170
27
2.4
–
Haven’t met since 2006. Last trip to Columbus was in 2005 (OSU 530-137 yard edge, 31-6) where Iowa’s dropped 5 straight and the Horseshoe is the only Big 10 stadium in which Ferentz has failed to win. Ohio St has either lost or gone to OT in 5 of the last eight prior to Michigan. Iowa’s luck finally ran out last week as they had turnovers on 4 consecutive 2nd quarter possessions and quarterback Ricky Stanzi (ankle) was KO’d in the 2nd quarter on a sack in the end zone, which Northwestern recovered for a touchdown. Backup James Vandenberg (PS#56) hit 9 of 27 for 82 yards with an interception and led the Hawkeyes into Northwestern territory just one time (missed 46 yard field goal). Ferentz said after the game he expected Stanzi to miss OSU. Iowa is #2 NCAA in turnovers forced (26) but OSU is right behind with 25. Iowa has won 6 straight on the road allowing 46 total points. OSU is suddenly in the driver’s seat for their 5th straight Big 10 title thanks to their dominating 24-7 win at Penn St in which they had 15-9 first down and 353-201 yard edges. Despite an ankle injury, quarterback Terrelle Pryor has accounted for 245 total yards per game with 8 touchdowns and 1 turnover in the last 3 games since committing 4 turnovers in the Purdue loss. OSU’s defense has forced an NCAA best 60 3 & outs. Iowa has been strong on the road but Ohio Stadium is their own house of horrors especially for a quarterback making his 1st road start.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO ST 27 IOWA 10

 

#12 MIAMI (FL) at N CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIAMI, FL 90
208
26
2.2
–
N CAROLINA
126
168
21
2.8
–
This is North Carolina’s final home game. Last year Carolina rallied from an early 14 point deficit to beat the Canes 28-24 in Miami for the 1st time since 1957 on a touchdown pass with :46 left. Miami made it look easy in the 1st quarter out-gaining the Tar Heels 127-24, and limiting them to -4 yards rushing and less than 2 yards per carry. Randy Shannon was a player and assistant coach under Carolina head coach Davis at Miami. Hurricane quarterback Jacory Harris is averaging 260 yards per game (62%) with an 18-12 ratio. The Canes have a large offensive edge (#16-98) but the Heels have a slight defensive edge (#10-22). North Carolina has the #5 pass defense in the NCAA allowing just 157.8 yards per game. Miami’s defense has been banged up and some may return here to try to stop Heel running back Ryan Houston (PS#21) who had 179 total yards last week after Shaun Draughn was lost for the season with a fractured shoulder blade. Quarterback TJ Yates is averaging 142 yards per game (59%) with a 9-10 ratio. If Miami can win their last three games (NC, Duke, USF) they will have their 1st 10 or more win season since 2003. Huge edge not only in talent but speed gives the Hurricanes a win.      

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : MIAMI, FL 27 N CAROLINA 17

 

#14 OREGON vs ARIZONA ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA ST 75
165
13
3.1
–
OREGON
220
225
36
2.5
•
Oregon was the next team in line to suffer the dubious big game letdown as a week after dismantling USC, Oregon was handled much worse than the final score indicated last week vs Stanford as the Ducks allowed a season worst 505 total yards in the 9 point defeat. Oregon’s offense has averaged 490 yards per game in conference play, outscoring opponents by a 42-18 margin. Last year the Ducks amassed 537 total yards (304 rushing) in the 54-20 clubbing of ASU. Oregon has won 4 straight vs the Sun Devils (all by 12+ points) with an average win of 42-18. The closest game was in 2007 in Autzen where Oregon only won 35-23, a game that despite the win, basically ended the Ducks run at a National Championship with Heisman hopeful quarterback Dennis Dixon tearing his ACL. ASU, on the other hand, is on a backwards journey in the Pac 10 standings losing 3 straight and all but diminishing their chances of a bowl game needing to win 2 of their last 3. With a stagnant offense, don’t be surprised to see true freshman quarterback Brock Osweiler (153 yards, 41%, 1-1 ratio last week) get his 1st start of the season here and have the team lean on a solid defense that is allowing just 292 yards per game on the season including just 87 yards per game (2.8 yards per carry) on the ground (Oregon is averaging 277 yards per game rushing, 6.0 ypc vs Pac 10). After their BCS Champ aspirations ended last week, the Ducks should be a focused bunch the rest of the year with the Rose Bowl being their target.
PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON 41 ARIZONA ST 13

 

#18 ARIZONA at CALIFORNIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ARIZONA 127

273
30
2.6
–
CALIFORNIA
149
238
30
1.8
•
The Bears were dominated at home last week vs the Beavers (out first downed 23-14 and outgained 436-239) and may have lost their homerun threat running back Jahvid Best (120 total yards per game, 16 TD) for a few weeks after suffering a concussion in the 1st half. The Cats, on the other hand, are the only team in the conference outside of Oregon that controls their own destiny and ride some pretty big momentum coming into Berkeley averaging 493 yards the past three weeks after their dismantling of Washington St last week in Tucson (471-185 yard advantage, scored on 1st 7 possessions). Last year after leading 24-14 at the half, #25 Cal allowed 28 3rd quarter points to the Wildcats in the 42-27 defeat. The home team usually plays well in this series but Best’s injury makes this a struggle for the Bears and Arizona is just the more complete team.
PHIL’S FORECAST : ARIZONA 31 CALIFORNIA 27

 

#20 VIRGINIA TECH at MARYLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VA TECH 193
175
27
1.5
••
MARYLAND
97
190
13
3.1
–
Virginia Tech has won their ACC meetings by an average of 35-9. In the Hokies last trip here in 2005 they had 497-254 yard and 25-16 first down edges. Last year Va Tech knocked off #23 Maryland in Blacksburg. With a win over East Carolina last Thursday, the Hokies are bowl eligible for the 17th straight year. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is averaging 161 yards per game passing (56%) with a 9-3 ratio. Running back Ryan Williams has rushed for 1,109 yards (5.9 yards per carry) and needs just 156 yards to tie VT’s freshman record set by Darren Evans last year. While the Hokies do have the edges on off (#35-92), def (#17-78) and ST (#14-43), the Terps have a dangerous weapon in wide receiver Torrey Smith who is averaging 201 all-purpose yards per game (#3 NCAA). Quarterback Chris Turner, who suffered an MCL injury last week (questionable for game) is averaging 219 yards per game pass (59%) with a 10-10 ratio but could be replaced Sophomore Jamarr Robinson here. Maryland has lost 4 straight and 7 of the last 8 this year to clinch a losing season.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 30 MARYLAND 10

 

#23 USF AT RUTGERS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
USF 144
168
20
3.5
–
RUTGERS
122
213
23
2.0
•

USF struggles in cold weather venues and tonights forecast calls for temperatures to be in the 40s and 20+ mph wind. Speed wont be a factor here as Rutgers quick defense counters the USF speed oriented offense. The Bulls run game usually opens up lanes for QB BJ Daniels but that will be tough here as the Knights run defense is giving up just 3.3 yards per carry. Rutgers has won three in a row in this series and I expect them them to make it four straight.  
PHIL’S FORECAST : Rutgers 23 USF 17

 

#24 CLEMSON AT NC STATE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CLEMSON 176
180
38
2.3
•••
NC STATE
134
235
24
3.5
–
Clemson has won 5 in a row. Last year North Carolina St’s only touchdown came when linebacker Irving intercepted Clemson QB Cullen Harper on the 1st play of the game and returned it 33 yards (Clemson 27-19). In Clemson’s last trip here the Tigers dominated with a 608-202 yard edge and scored on 4 of their first 5 possessions (42-20). NC St quarterback Russell Wilson is averaging 261 yards per game (60%) with a 24-9 ratio (#2 ACC pass efficiency). These two match-up evenly on offense (NC St #26-29) but Clemson has large defensive (#9-85) and Special team (#5-61) edges, including CJ Spiller who is always threat (312 all-purpose yards last week). On the season he is averaging 199 all-purpose yards per game (#4 in NCAA) but was banged up last week  but is probable this week. Quarterback Kyle Parker is averaging 185 yards per game passing (53%) with a 14-9 ratio. The Tigers control their own destiny as a win here and in their home finale vs Virginia will earn them a trip to Tampa in the ACC Champ game while the Wolf Pack need to win their last three to become bowl eligible.

 
PHIL’S FORECAST : CLEMSON 34 NC STATE 24