Daily Blog • Saturday, November 14th

 

GAMEDAY NEWS & NOTES

Texas - Aaron Williams (knee - questionable) did not play last week and HC Brown confirmed he’ll play & most likely start. Williams started the first 8 games at CB.

 

Nebraska - With the win over #20 OU last week, the Huskers claimed its 1st win over a Top 20 team under Pelini & 1st since beating a #20 Michigan squad in the ’05 Alamo Bowl.

 

Kansas - In the last 4 games QB Reesing has now turned the ball over 10 times including 3 vs KSU last week.

 

Iowa St – Head Coach Rhoads is shouldering the blame for the poor effort vs OSU last week saying as a coach he didn’t get his players up for the game. “I will thoroughly evaluate everything that took place, I will take a good look and see if we did get beat by an elite team or we didn’t.”

 

Colorado - The Buffs have been outscored 71-24 in the 1Q this season.

 

Kansas St - The Wildcats have forced 13 turnovers in the past 4 games.

 

Syracuse - The Orange has been outscored in league games 133-50. It has scored but one TD in it last 2 Big East games.

 

Louisville - The speculation about Steve Kragthorpe’s future as the Cardinals’ coach has been upgraded from if he will be replaced to when the change will be announced.

 

Michigan St – Defensive Coordinator Narduzzi said that in practice the Tuesday prior to W Michigan they had 6 defensive starters sit out due to injuries. He said the team isn’t banged up anymore and that the younger players who played vs W Michigan performed well.

 

Ohio St - Tressel said that Sophomore OL Mike Adams (knee scope-out since Purdue) & JD Schugarts (left PSU with leg injury) will both be ready vs Iowa.

 

Central Michigan - QB LeFevour was named 1 of 16 finalists for Maxwell Award.

 

W Michigan - Cubit is convinced his players are going to play the final 2 games as if everything was on the line.

 

Northern Illinois – Have 3 games in 13 days but all 3 are at home

 

Army  - LB Stephen Anderson is out for season with an ACL injury (#1 tackler).

 

Georgia Tech - DE Derrick Morgan (#5 NCAA with 11.5 sacks) said he hasn’t made up his mind yet if he will enter draft early.

 

Virginia - Starting QB Jameel Sewell (shoulder injury) is questionable. Backup QB Marc Vercia (head injury), who started for Sewell last week, is questionable. Groh said of Sewell: “There’s progress every day and we just hope that it continues.”

 

Wyoming - For the 1st time this year, coaches decided not to show the team the game tape of the loss to BYU. Christensen said, “It was the worst-ever game I’ve seen by a football team.”

 

TCU – The Utah game is sold out – first sellout at TCU since 2006.

 

UNLV - Clayton battled shoulder and knee injuries early in the season but is healthy now and it shows. Threw 9 interceptions over a 5 game stretch but has gone 3 without throwing one. And after rushing for 52 in the previous span, he has 110 the last three.

 

Stanford - The FSN announcers in the Stanford/Oregon game mentioned that Andrew Luck might be the best young QB in the Pac-10 even giving him the nod over Barkley.

 

UCLA - QB Kevin Prince is probable after being knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion.

 

Washington St - HC Wulff admits that his team is tired after playing five of the past 6 games on the road, all losses and all against schools that were ranked at some time this season.

 

California - RB Jahvid Best will miss at least this week if not the rest of the season after the horrific concussion that saw him lying motionless for at least 15 minutes.

 

Arizona - Starting RB Nic Grigsby missed his 1st full game last week with his nagging shoulder injury. He was practicing without contact this week and is listed as questionable to play vs Cal. Backup RB Greg Nwoko missed last week’s game as well last week with a shoulder injuries but appears ready to return here.

 

Arizona St - Erickson said that he was very upset about the 1st half turnovers last week vs USC and would re-evaluate the QB position early this week. He did mention last week however that the coaches don’t believe he is completely ready to become the starter.

 

Oregon - RB LeGarrette Blount has been reinstated to the team as of Monday and will play this weekend. Kelly hasn’t referenced how much he will play however. Coaches have used the word “rusty” most of the week defining his return to full practice.

 

Washington - HC Sarkisian implemented a bunch of loud crowd machines throughout practice this week to keep his team focused and to not get distracted with this big game coming up.

 

Arkansas St - HC Roberts said it’s his responsibility to get the team emotionally prepared to play and he has failed to do that the last 2 weeks.

 

UL Monroe - This is ULM’s first home game since Oct. 13 (3 straight road).

 

W Kentucky - HC Dave Elson was fired on Monday, will coach last 3 games.

 

Middle Tenn - QB Dwight Dasher left last week game in the 4Q with a lower body injury but is expected to play this week. He walked gingerly on the sideline and practiced.

 

Alabama - HC Saban blasted media on Monday when asked about a controversial call by officials in which LSU CB Peterson grabbed an interception from McElroy but was flying out of bounds and the time and officials ruled he didn’t get a foot down in bounds…. RB Ingram has 54.2% of his rushing yards after contact (645 of 1190).

 

FLORIDA - HC Meyer said one point of emphasis this week is cutting down on the sacks. Florida has allowed 22 sacks (3rd worst in the SEC this year).

 

SOUTH CAROLINA – Head Coach Spurrier said he would resume calling most of the offensive plays with suggestions from the other coaches. He said he plans to coach at SC for 3 to 4 more years.

 

NAVY - HC Niumatalolo is warning the players to keep an even keel off their upset win over Notre Dame. He is warning them of their loss to Delaware 2 years ago and Oregon’s loss to Stanford after their upset of USC.

 

KENTUCKY -  Head Coach Rich Brooks said QB Hartline (started 1st 5 then missed the last 4 with a knee injury) might play vs Vandy and could possibly even start the game.

 

Boise St - AD Gene Bleymaier said BSU is having a heck of a time finding an opponent for its 2011 schedule.

 

Idaho - HC Robb Akey said there’s a buzz on campus like he’s never seen before in his three years with the Vandals for their upcoming game with Boise State.

 

San Jose St - HC Dick Tomey said if he had to vote for the WAC Offensive Player of the Year today, he would vote for Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick over Boise State QB Kellen Moore & Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews.

 

Hawaii - Starting OT Laupepa Letuli started the first three games and could be out for the rest of the year with a knee injury from lifting weights (missed last six games).

 

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS FOR NOVEMBER 15TH
JACKSONVILLE AT NY JETS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
JACKSONVILLE 112
126
15
2
#18
NY JETS 200
218
31
1
#27

Last week the Jags switched back to a 4-3 defense versus Kansas City after trying to brute force install a 3-4 on the defense. They blew a 24-6 lead versus Kansas City & now face a rested Jets team that will run blitz all day on Jones-Drew. The Jets will have a fully healthy WR unit to go against a Jags team allowing a 15-5 touchdown/interception ratio with just 8 sacks on the year with 3 coming versus Kansas City. Sanchez will have time to throw & I like how Rex Ryan has adjusted things to help his QB improve. The Jags have lost their non-division games by 12 points per game, are -7 turnovers in those & Garrard only has a 5.72 ypa in those. I think the Jets will make this a very tough day for the visiting team here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 23 JACKSONVILLE 10

 

 

CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CINCINNATI 85
213
18
1
#25
PITTSBURGH 103
265
20
2
#15

Cincinnati pulled a nice upset over Pittsburgh in the 1st meeting but Pittsburgh had a 373-273 yd edge despite being without SS Polamalu & having benched now #1 RB Mendenhall. Both teams are off wins versus quality foes & with a win Cincinnati will take a huge step to locking up the division, as they will have swept the Ravens & Steelers. Pittsburgh has done a good job statistically at home with a 414-289 yd edge & their last 2 games have been their best of the season. Still, Cincinnati is very confident right now & this is the most important game for them since the 2005 playoff loss to Pittsburgh. I think the Steelers will pull out a win here as they are rounding into form but I respect the Bengals & think they will keep it pretty close.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 CINCINNATI 24

 

 

 

DETROIT AT MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DETROIT 78
195
14
2
#29
MINNESOTA 132
308
39
1
#4

Minnesota returns from their bye week versus a foe that Favre has 24 career wins against. Favre is much further along in the system than he was in the 1st meeting where Detroit got an early lead on them. While the Lions offense is much better than 2008’s version the defense is just as bad as they are #32 allowing 71.7% pass completions, #32 with 19 passing touchdowns allowed & #32 with a 107.3 QBR allowed. Detroit will be without LB Sims (hamstring tear) & LB Foote may miss here. I think Stafford is still hurting from his dislocated kneecap which is affecting his mechanics. Look for Minnesota to jump out to an early lead & let the run game behind Peterson & Taylor pad their stats here in the 2nd half.

PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 34 DETROIT 13

 

 

 

ATLANTA AT CAROLINA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
ATLANTA 128
193
25
2
#6
CAROLINA 188
238
24
2
#32

Carolina has played pretty good ball the last two weeks upsetting the Cardinals & putting a good scare into the Saints where they were burned by being too conservative in the 2nd half. Delhomme has played decently in those games & will get FB Fiametta & WR Muhammad back here. However the defense took a huge hit with WLB Thomas Davis going on IR as the Panthers funnel plays to him. While Atlanta beat Washington by 2 touchdowns last week, I wasn’t really impressed by it as Washingtons’ OL is a mess & Portis is a shell of his former self. Carolina does have the run game to matchup with Atlanta’s #24 defense that is on the small side & has given up 132 ypg (4.2) the last 3 weeks. I think Carolina will get the win here as they are playing within themselves right now & Atlanta is a bit overrated.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CAROLINA 23 ATLANTA 17

 

 

KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS CITY 133
160
15
1
#10
OAKLAND 123
193
17
2
#17

Kansas City will come into this game with revenge in their eyes as they had a 409-166 yd edge but 9 penalties, several dropped passes & 2 interceptions by Cassel in his 1st start did them in. Oakland will be the healthiest its been since training camp started & will have its entire opening day OL, WR Chad Schillens & RB Darren McFadden here. I think KC improved its locker room by getting rid of Larry Johnson & this will allow Cassel to firmly take over the team. I think this will be an ugly, low scoring affair & while Oakland is at home, rested & healthier, I don’t trust Russell & Oakland has a tendency to fall flat when they should dominate.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 13 OAKLAND 10

 

 

PHILADELPHIA AT SAN DEIGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PHILADELPHIA 96
200
27
1
#22
SAN DIEGO 73
265
24
3
#9

This is a letdown spot for Philadelphia who are off 3 straight NFC East games & are between SNF games with a road game versus Chicago on deck. While Philadelphia should get Westbrook back their defense is in pretty bad shape as #3 DE Abiamiri, #2 CB Hobbs, nickel CB Hanson are out & they will field their 5th different starting LB unit here. The OL will likely be without LT Jason Peters here which is bad news vs a SD defense that has pulled in 14 sacks the last 3 weeks. While both teams have been 2nd half of the season teams San Diego is much healthier & their come from behind win vs the Giants last week was a huge boost for them. Philadelphia lives & dies by the big play on the offense but San Diego has good CB’s & have shuffled the defense which has helped their improvement. San Diego is pretty one dimensional right now on offense but they are improving & get the win here to make next weeks game vs Denver very interesting.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN DIEGO 28 PHILADELPHIA 21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DENVER AT WASHINGTON
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DENVER 112
113
18
0
#23
WASHINGTON 97
145
13
2
#19

Denver comes in having lost two straight as Baltimore & Pittsburgh shutdown the Broncos intermediate passing game, which is heavy on timing routes. Washington has been outscored 103-36 in the 1st half of their games & an offense that had 5 different offensive line combo’s simply can’t hold up long enough for the WR’s to get separation. Washington’s #6 defense is built on the easiest NFL schedule to open a season & they lost SS Horton who was having a great year. I think Denver makes their offensive adjustments & gets back on track with some momentum which they’ll need with the Chargers on deck next week.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DENVER 27 WASHINGTON 9

 

BUFFALO AT TENNESSEE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BUFFALO 104
178
18
2
#8
TENNESSEE 215
180
21
2
#30

Buffalo returns from a desperately needed bye which rested a defense that has had 9 defensive starters miss games due to injury. They also will get Trent Edwards back here but he hasn’t taken a live snap in almost a month & TO may miss with a hip injury. Tennessee has scored 10 fewer points in their last 2 games than their previous 5 before the bye combined. They have started to get healthier in the secondary & Chris Johnson has firmly established himself as an elite rusher behind one of the best OL’s in the NFL. Tennessee will only have 3 WR’s here which does concern me as #1 WR Justin Gage (back) will miss. I think Buffalo will make it tight for the 1st half but the Titans will pull away in the 2nd half & they will be a force to deal with in the 2nd half of the season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 BUFFALO 13

 

NEW ORLEANS AT ST LOUIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NEW ORLEANS 135
318
37
2
#26
ST LOUIS 114
208
12
2
#12

New Orleans has massive stat edges here with #1 & #16 units (+6 turnovers) versus St Louis #26 & #28 units (-7 turnovers). St Louis is 0-3 SU versus teams with elite quarterbacks this year (Green Bay, Minnesota, Indy) & while they haven’t been blown out in overall yards (390-336) they are -8 turnovers. St Louis is only expected to be without RG Incognito here & are as healthy as they’ve been all year. While this seems to be a letdown spot for New Orleans, I don’t think Sean Payton will let the team take the foot off the gas here as they need a complete game to smooth over the tough spots in the last 3 games. New Orleans is simply too well rounded, balanced & talented for St Louis to keep pace with here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: new orleans 42 st louis 6

 

TAMPA BAY AT MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TAMPA BAY 72
173
15
2
#1
MIAMI 177
188
34
1
#4

Miami has overachieved the last 3 weeks almost beating New Orleans, upsetting the Jets despite only having 104 yards & they have generally matched up well with NE recently. They now get a TB team off their 1st win versus Green Bay who were flat off MIN & looking ahead to Dallas. GB didn’t go after Josh Freeman (266 yds 49% 2-3) last week with the blitz but I don’t think Miami will make the same mistake here. I think Miami will reestablish their run game versus TB’s #29 rush defense that is giving up 163 ypg (4.8) here. Miami will just be trying to get out of here with a win as they have Carolina on deck on Thursday while I think Tam will get a few points in garbage time to make it closer than it looks.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MIAMI 27 TAMPA BAY 21

 

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEATTLE 86
218
19
1
#21
ARIZONA 89
283
30
2
#7

Arizona is 1-3 at home & 4-0 on the road & have the #20 & #26 home offense & defenses & are -10 TO’s at well. Seattle got real lucky last week overcoming a 17-3 deficit on 5 TO’s by Stafford who was in his 1st trip to Qwest Field. Seattle is getting healthier week by week though & will be looking to avenge a 27-3 loss just one month ago. Arizona will have Boldin back for this game after resting him last week & they finally had a breakout game on the ground with 182 yds (5.9). Seattle has struggled on the road going 0-3 this year losing by a 32-15 margin & I think Arizona will get a needed home win here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 20 SEATTLE 10

 

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DALLAS 109
230
30
2
#2
GREEN BAY 101
278
26
3
#28

This game has solid matchups for the Cowboys with their surging defense vs a Green Bay team that will have its 9th different Offensive line combo this year. Green Bay is also in a tough spot defensively as DE/OLB Kampman will miss with a concussion, with LB’s Poppinga & Chillar also missing due to injuries. They will have 2 rookies at the OLB spots & I don’t like the matchup of AJ Hawk in the middle vs Witten or Dallas' #8 rush offense (5.1 ypc). Dallas also has a huge special teams edge here especially in the KR game. Green Bay’s offense did have a “come to Jesus” meeting to try & sort things out but the OL is a mess & they don’t have a TE to exploit the middle as Finley will miss again. Dallas comes in knowing they can win here as they notched a 27-16 win in Lambeau last year & I like their chances vs a wounded GB team.

PHIL’S FORECAST: DALLAS 31 GREEN BAY 23

 

FCS SECTION

A note from Josh Buchanan: Before I get into my picks I would like to remind everyone that I am producing weekly prospect reports on the small school players throughout the season at www.buyscouting.com for purchase.  You can also follow my weekly small school coverage at www.jbscouting.com
JOSH'S WEEK 11 FCS FORECASTS