Daily Blog • Wednesday, November 18th

Every week we will post my Forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game.

So far this year the Top 25 Forecasts have gone 178-47 79.1% picking the winners of each game. That record may sound great, but do keep in mind most games have involved teams that were big favorites so the majority of people will have a solid record on these games as well. On the bottom of the forecast, I have listed some Upset Specials which have pulled the upset 15 out of 30 times. Combined the first eleven week record is 193-62 75.7%!!


#1 FLORIDA VS FIU
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
FIU 20
85
1
2.9
FLORIDA
330
270
48
1.5
••
LAST 12 YEAR MATCHUPS

1st meeting. This is a sandwich for Florida as they are off a 24-14 win over South Carolina and have rival Florida St on deck. The Gators held the Gamecocks to just 247 yards last week and grabbed 2 interceptions to clinch their first 8-0 SEC season since 1996. Florida’s #2 defense has been the focal point of the team with the offense struggling at times (still #7 in our rankings). Last week Florida had a 339-247 yard edge but missed 3 field goals (2 were 50+) to keep the score close. FIU is off a come-from-behind 35-28 win over North Texas in which FIU was outgained 513-258, but scored 21 points in the 2nd half off of 2 turnovers and a blocked punt to grab the win. FIU’s kids figure to be very pumped up for this and they have a bye next week. The Gators can name the score here, but expect a lot of backups to see action. Of course most of Florida’s backups would be starters for FIU and they will be excited to play meaningful minutes.

PHIL’S FORECAST : fLORIDA 52 FIU 3

 

#3 TEXAS VS KANSAS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KANSAS 5
195
11
35
TEXAS
205
265
46
1.6
•••••

Texas is 7-2 vs Kansas. The Horns haven’t lost to the Jayhawks since 1938 and in the last three meetings in Austin have outscored Kansas on average 57-15 (595-277 average yard edge). Texas took care of Baylor last week (up 40-0 with a 314-37 yard edge at halftime) to remain undefeated. Quarterback Colt McCoy (263 yards per game, 72%, 19-9 ratio) and wide receiver Jordan Shipley (81 receptions, 13.7) are having Heisman type seasons. Kansas after opening 5-0 (ranked #17) has dropped 5 straight. Quarterback Todd Reesing is averaging 286 yards per game (62%) with an 18-8 ratio but over the last four weeks just 221 yards per game (55%, 3-4 ratio). Texas is 15-1 in home finales while Kansas is 7-20 in November games away from Lawrence. Both have big rivals on deck with Texas playing Thursday Night, but the Horns have all the advantages across the board (offense #3-37, defense #1-56 and special teams #1-65) and should continue the Jayhawks’ downward spiral.

PHIL’S FORECAST : TEXAS 48 KANSAS 13

 

 

#6 BOISE ST AT UTAH ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
BOISE ST 175
278
45
1.6
•••
UTAH ST
186
178
21
2.9

Boise needs to impress the voters this week and have played very well in Logan in the past outscoring the Aggies 97-21 in their last two meetings here. The Broncos have large edges on offense (#21-71) and defense (#24-99) and get a comfortable win.  

PHIL’S FORECAST : BOISE ST 44 LA TECH 17

 

 

#10 LSU AT MISSISSIPPI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
LSU 116
140
15
1.3
••
MISSISSIPPI
174
215
21
2.3

LSU had won six straight in this match-up before last year when Ole Miss got a 31-13 road upset with a 409-215 yard edge. It was the worst home loss of Miles’ career. Mississippi running back/wide receiver Dexter McCluster set a Ole Miss record with 282 rush yards and 4 touchdowns last week in their 42-17 win over Tennessee breaking a 12 game losing streak in the series. The Rebels had 492-275 yard and 26-18 first down edges and clinched a bowl bid. LSU is off a 24-16 win over Louisiana Tech with 4 offensive starters missing (running back Charles Scott out for the year, quarterback Jordan Jefferson, tight end Richard Dickson, center T-Bob Hebert). LSU was outgained 322-246 and out first downed 23-15 with QB Jarrett Lee hitting just 7 of 22 for 105 yards and running back Keiland Williams rushing for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns. LSU is outscoring foes 25-14 this year, but has been outgained 310-312 on the year. These 2 rivals are battling for #2 in the West and Ole Miss takes advantage of a banged up LSU team.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MISSISSIPPI 27 LSU 17


#12 OKLAHOMA ST VS COLORADO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
COLORADO 38
185
10
3.4
OKLA ST
227
175
34
1.9
•••
PHIL’S FORECAST : THURDAY AT 5:00

 

#13 PENN ST AT MICHIGAN ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
PENN ST 135
198
25
1.25
MICH ST
116
263
24
1.9
••••

The Spartans are 13-5 in home finales. The home team is 10-2 in this series. Last year Penn St led 49-10 at home before allowing a late TD. Last trip here Penn St blew a 24-7 lead and lost 35-31. The Lions rallied from a 10-0 deficit despite 4 1st half turnovers to beat Indiana 31-20 last week as linebacker Navorro Bowman untied the game with a 71-yard interception return for a touchdown in the 3rd quarter. Running back Evan Royster (990 yards, 5.7 ypc) shook off a knee injury to rush for 95 yards. PSU is #20 in pass efficiency defense (178 yards, 54%, 7-11 ratio) but has faced just 2 pass offenses in the NCAA’s top 35 (Northwestern and Indiana) allowing 275 yards per game (64%) with a 2-1 ratio. Thanks to their special teams, Michigan St clinched bowl eligibility despite being out first-downed 28-12 and outgained 524-362 by Purdue. The Spartans had 229 yards in kick returns, kicker Brett Swenson had 4 field goals (two 52 yarders) and they blocked a key 4th quarter 50 yard field goal which allowed them to rally from an 11 point deficit. The Spartans are #99 pass efficiency defense (245 yards per game, 59%, 24-5 ratio) with the 2nd most TD passes allowed in the NCAA and the 3rd fewest interceptions as quarterback Daryll Clark takes advantage of the porous Spartan pass defense as the Lions clinch a New Year’s Day bowl.

PHIL’S FORECAST : PENN ST 27 MICHIGAN ST 17

 

 

#15 IOWA VS MINNESOTA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MINNESOTA 70
115
16
2.7
IOWA
145
290
33
3.1

Minnesota is 1-7 vs Iowa including a humiliating 55-0 loss in last year’s Metrodome finale. Last week Iowa rallied from a 14 point deficit with 11:11 left, but let the Rose Bowl slip away as they lost their 2nd straight, 27-24 in OT to Ohio St. Due to injury, quarterback James Vandenberg (20-33 for 234 yards, 2-3 ratio vs OSU) became the 20th different Hawkeye offensive starter this year leading the game tying 7 play 80-yard touchdown drive and wasn’t sacked but did toss an interception in the end zone in overtime. #1 rusher running back Adam Robinson (703 yards, 4.5 ypc), who was expected to miss the rest of the regular season, surprisingly returned to rush for 73 vs OSU as backup Brandon Wegher (PS#5) did not play due to injury. Iowa allowed a 100-yard rusher for the 1st time this year vs the Bucks. Minnesota, missing 4 starters, barely became bowl eligible beating the FCS’s #12 team South Dakota St 16-13 as they kicked a 25-yard field goal with 2:22 left. Neither team scored an offensive touchdown and the Gophers were outgained 241-231. Minnesota is #107 NCAA rushing (102 yards per game, 3.1 ypc) which puts pressure on quarterback Adam Weber who is without his top wide receiver Eric Decker (out for year). Iowa stops their slide and beats their rival for the 3rd straight season.

PHIL’S FORECAST : IOWA 27 MINNESOTA 20

 

 

 

#17 WISCONSIN AT N'WESTERN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
WISCONSIN 181
165
25
2.7
NORTHWESTERN
89
250
20
2.3

1st meeting since 2006. This is the 1st time since 1998 that Northwestern is not playing Illinois to finish the year. Last week Northwestern trailed 3-0 with 1:21 left 2nd quarter after missing 2 field goals and being stopped on downs at the Illinois 43 when an interception set up a 28 yard touchdown pass with :17 left. The Cats extended it to 21-3 in the 4th quarter before holding on 21-16 as Northwestern intercepted Illinois backup quarterback Jacob Charest with :34 left. Northwestern’s Mike Kafka quarterbacked the whole way and hit 23-37 for 306 despite a lingering hamstring injury. The Wildcats are allowing 128 rush yards per game (3.9 ypc) in conference play. Wisconsin ran away from Michigan scoring the last 17 points after the Wolverines cut it to 28-24 in the 3rd quarter. The Badgers plowed the undersized Michigan defense with 30-16 first down and 469-265 yard edges. The Big 10’s #1 rusher running back John Clay (1124 yards, 5.2 ypc) is averaging nearly 30 yards per game more than the #2 rusher in Big 10 play. Wisconsin is outgaining Big 10 foes by a league best 107 yards per game and they close out the Big 10 season with a road win.

PHIL’S FORECAST : WISC 27 NORTHWESTERN 20

 

 

#19 BYU VS AIR FORCE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
AIR FORCE 215
55
22
1.4
•••
BYU
150
270
27
2.4

BYU is 5-0 (all wins 14+) vs AF allowing just 211 yards per game rushing (over 100 yards below Air Force season rush average) outgaining Air Force by an average of 166 yards per game. This is Air Force’s regular season finale while BYU has Utah on deck. Last time here BYU rolled 31-6. Despite being out first-downed 22-17 and outgained by 5 yards last week, the Cougars pulled out a 5 point win vs New Mexico, helped by the Lobo kicker James Aho hitting the crossbar on 3 different kicks (2 field goals, 1 PAT). With the win, Max Hall did tie Ty Detmer for most career wins by a quarterback in BYU history. Last week the Falcons dominated UNLV with 30-16 first down and 557-282 yard edges in a 45-17 home win. While not normally thought of as a passing threat, quarterback Tim Jefferson has strung together three 100-yard passing games (averaging 123 yards per game, 59%, 3-0 ratio last 3). After the close game last week, the Cougs want to prove they’re a top-tier team in the MWC and do so here as they match up well every year.

PHIL’S FORECAST : BYU 35 AIR FORCE 16

 

 

 

#21 MIAMI, FL VS DUKE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DUKE 35
283
21
2.0
MIAMI, FL
171
313
42
2.2

Last year Duke led 24-14 at home and then Miami brought in quarterback Jacory Harris in the 3rd quarter and he led Miami to 35 unanswered points for a 49-31 win. Duke quarterback Thaddeus Lewis is averaging 264 yards per game passing (62%) with a 16-6 ratio. Duke, however, is last in the NCAA (#120) only averaging 64 yards per game rushing. Although Miami has large offensive (#12-75) and defensive edges (#25-80), Turnovers have plagued the Canes (18). Quarterback Harris is averaging 266 yards per game passing (61%) but has thrown 16 interceptions (#2 NCAA) including 2, which were returned for touchdowns last week in their loss to North Carolina. While Miami is already bowl eligible, their loss last week probably eliminated them from a BCS berth and Duke must win its final 2 games to become bowl eligible for the 1st time since 1994.

PHIL’S FORECAST : MIAMI FL 41 DUKE 17

 

#24 HOUSTON VS MEMPHIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MEMPHIS 220
248
29
3.1
HOUSTON
166
493
51
2.1
•••

Houston is unbeaten (9-0) at home under head coach Kevin Sumlin. Memphis head coach Tommy West was fired prior to last weeks game vs UAB as Memphis lost 31-21 in their final home game. Now they must travel to play a Houston team that needs help to get to the CUSA Title game. Houston was outscored 27-15 in the 2nd half in their loss to UCF and needs a SMU loss to reach the CUSA Title game. The Cougs still have the nation’s #1 offense (563 yards per game), despite being held to 423 yards last week. Quarterback Case Keenum is averaging 419 yards per game (70%) with a 31-6 ratio and now takes on a weak defense. The firing of a coach can sometimes rally a team, but that emotion has waned, so I think Houston can name the score here.

PHIL’S FORECAST : HOUSTON 51 MEMPHIS 27

 

Upsets of the Week:
SAN JOSE ST OVER HAWAII
ARMY OVER NORTH TEXAS

 

 

 

#2 ALABAMA VS TENN CHATT
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TENN CHATT -81
128
0
2.6
ALABAMA
291
233
51
1.8
••
LAST 12 YEAR MATCHUPS

This is Alabama’s final home game for 26 seniors, as they haven’t lost a game in Tuscaloosa since ULM in 2007. Chattanooga is getting $400,000 to play this game. Alabama is 10-0 all-time in this series with the last meeting a 42-13 Bama win in 1994. Crimson Tide quarterback Greg McElroy has come off a mid-season slump and averaged 234 yards per game (61.5%) with a 4-1 ratio in his last two games. Running back Mark Ingram continued his Heisman-caliber season with 149 yards (7.8) and two touchdowns in the 31-3 win last week vs Mississippi St.  Meanwhile, Chattanooga is off a 31-25 win that guaranteed them just their 2nd winning season in the last 12 years, the week after only trailing Appalachian St St 21-20 in the 4th quarter. Last year the Mocs were outscored by a combined 103-9 against Oklahoma and Florida St. Their last game vs an SEC team was a 34-15 loss to Arkansas in 2007. Chattanooga is led by former Tennessee transfer BJ Coleman (PS#65) who is averaging 231 yards per game (58.5%) with a 17-7 ratio. The Crimson Tide have archrival Auburn on deck and will look to rest some starters late but they can name their score in this one.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ALABAMA 42 TENN CHATT 0

 

#4 TCU AT WYOMING
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TCU 263
175
40
1.3
WYOMING
97
125
6
2.1

After a 3-point loss in 2007, TCU rebounded with a 54-7 win over the Pokes last year. TCU is 3-1 in MWC play in the series with their 3 wins by an average of 36-8 (+188 yards per game) but they did lose their last trip here 24-21 in a game Wyoming led 24-6. This is Wyoming’s home finale. The Pokes were down 21 points vs San Diego St last week entering the 4th quarter. They rallied for 21 unanswered points, then recovered a fumbled short kickoff and drove 18 yards for the game-winning 43 yard field goal with :23 left, 30-27. After slumping the last weeks, Wyoming put together their best offensive output of the season (446 yards). TCU dominated once again beating Utah 55-28 with 32-11 first down and 549-284 yard edges with Utah getting a late garbage TD drive. The Frogs topped 500 total yards for the 3rd straight week. The run game (342 yards, 6.7 ypc) was led by Freshman Ed Wesley (137 yards), who became the 1st TCU freshman to top 100 yards in a game since 2005. The Frogs have outscored opponents 47-11 the last five and the defense has allowed just 6 touchdowns in that span. TCU continues to pile up style points to impress the BCS.

PHIL’S FORECAST : TCU 40 WYOMING 6

 

#9 OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OHIO STATE 218
175
37
1.4
MICHIGAN
117
195
21
3.1
••

Michigan is now 1-7 vs Tressel in the “Big Game”. Last year Michigan only trailed 14-7 at halftime but the Bucks finished with 3 scoring plays of 49+ yards in the 42-7 win for OSU’s school record 5th straight win over the Wolverines. OSU clinched their 5th straight Big 10 title and their 1st Rose Bowl bid since 1996 with a 27-24 OT win over Iowa as the Hawks rallied from 14 down with 11:11 left, but OSU’s defense stepped up in OT with an interception and the Bucks hit a 39 yard field goal for the win. With quarterback Terrelle Pryor (ankle) banged up, OSU’s run game has averaged 259 yards per game (5.2 yards per carry) since the loss to Purdue. OSU is #4 in NCAA rush defense (84 yards, 2.7 ypc). Michigan lost their 6th straight Big 10 game 45-24 to Wisconsin last week as the Badgers led just 28-24 in the 3rd quarter before grinding out 17 straight points behind running back John Clay who had 109 2nd half yards. Michigan has allowed 444 total yards including 197 rush yards per game (4.7 ypc) and 35 points per game in Big 10 play. Before Wisconsin, Michigan players said beating OSU will redeem their season as they’re in danger of back 2 back losing years for the 1st time since 1962-1963.        

PHIL’S FORECAST : OHIO STATE 30 MICHIGAN 23


#11 OREGON AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON 231
155
38
2.2
ARIZONA
144
220
29
2.5

It’s been 8 years since someone other than USC has claimed the Pac 10 Title. Oregon is 13-5 in this series and laid the lumber to Arizona St last week in Eugene outgaining the Sun Devils 388-211 led by running back LaMichael James who rushed for 149 yards (6.8 ypc, highest individual rush total vs ASU this year). Arizona’s offense couldn’t find consistency last week in Berkeley as they totaled their worst yardage output in conference play this year with just 273 yards while being sacked 3 times (had allowed just 4). Last year the Wildcats stormed back from a 45-17 half time deficit and got to within 3 points in a game that featured 1,031 total yards. In their last meeting in Tucson, however, Arizona ended the Ducks’ BCS dreams by knocking them off 34-24 as Oregon lost their Heisman frontrunner quarterback Dennis Dixon to injury in the 1st quarter while up 7-0 and going in for more. Judging by the shootout that these 2 endured last year, it’s almost certain to be another duel in the desert here with these 2 high-octane offenses. Arizona has outgained teams 497-278 at home and Oregon is awesome in Autzen but is being outgained 360-368 on the road.

PHIL’S FORECAST : ARIZONA 34 OREGON 30

 

#14 STANFORD VS CALIFORNIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CALIFORNIA 138
223
25
1.8
STANFORD
218
293
40
1.8
••••

This marks the 103rd edition of the “Big Game” with Cal winning 6 of the last 7 meetings. After a disappointing loss to Oregon St a few weeks back which saw Cal lose their best player in running back Jahvid Best (120 total yards per game, 16 total touchdowns), the Bears rebounded with a solid defensive effort holding high-flying Arizona to just 273 total yards in the 8-point victory. Stanford is now 10-1 at home after their 51-42 upset of #8 Oregon 2 weeks ago and repeated that in even greater fashion last week putting up the most points ever vs USC in the 55-21 demolition of the Trojans at the Coliseum. Last year Cal rolled 37-16 at home ending the game at the Cardinal 3 but in their last meeting on the Farm (Harbaugh’s 1st year), Cal was held to 3 points and 103 yards in the 2nd half of the 20-13 upset loss. The #14 Cardinal are ranked the highest they’ve been since 2001 led by Heisman hopeful running back Toby Gerhart (122 yards per game, 5.2 yards per carry, 16 touchdowns), Red-shirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck (208 yards per game, 58%, 11-3 ratio) and our #5 rated offense, but Tedford knows how to beat his rival. Stanford beat two teams this year that were coming off upsets of USC and now it is their turn to be in a letdown spot.

PHIL’S FORECAST : STANFORD 27 CALIFORNIA 24

 

#16 VIRGINIA TECH VS NC STATE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NC STATE 112
185
17
2.4
VA TECH
273
220
41
1.3
•••

These schools last met in 2005 when the #8 Hokies beat the Wolfpack 20-16. The last seven games (1986) have been decided by a touchdown or less. The visitor is 2-0 and in 2005 Virginia Tech won on the road despite being outgained 438-232. The Hokies are 11-5-1 in home finales since 1992. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is averaging 172 yards per game (56%) with a 12-3 ratio. Running back Ryan Williams is #1 in the ACC with 1,235 rush yards (5.8). These two match up evenly on offense, but Virginia Tech has a large defensive edge (#15-87). Quarterback Russell Wilson is averaging 253 yards per game (58%) with a 26-10 ratio. The Wolf Pack have been eliminated from bowl eligibility and are trying to reach .500 while the Hokies’ goal now is to finish with a 10 win season.

PHIL’S FORECAST : VIRGINIA TECH 37 NC STATE 20

 

#18 CLEMSON VS VIRGINIA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
VIRGINIA 72
88
8
2.7
CLEMSON
214
188
32
2.3
••••

Clemson has won 2 of 3 including last year’s 13-3 defensive struggle. The teams totaled 382 yards and 26 first downs and all of Clemson’s points came off turnover. The Tigers are 9-2 in home finales. The Cavaliers’ 3 points last year were the fewest in this series since being shutout 55-0 in 1984. Quarterback Jameel Sewell is averaging 174 yards per game (53%) with a 6-7 ratio. Clemson has the offensive (#23-105) defensive (#7-34) and special team edges (#9-86). Quarterback Kyle Parker is averaging 185 yards per game (54%) with a 16-9 ratio. Running back CJ Spiller is #3 in the NCAA averaging 195 all-purpose yards per game. Clemson needs a win here to move on to the ACC championship game vs Georgia Tech and is outscoring opponents 33-11 at home. The Cavs have lost 4 straight, are assured of a 3rd losing season in 4 years and will probably be without head coach Al Groh next season. Clemson has handled business with 5 straight wins and in that span they’ve scored an average of 42 points. Head coach Dabo Swinney has already commented that this is no longer Bowden’s team and there will be no second half letdown.

PHIL’S FORECAST : CLEMSON 34 VIRGINIA 6

 

#20 OREGON ST AT WASH ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
OREGON ST 226
265
47
1.5
•••••
WASH ST
74
185
12
2.4

Two programs going in different directions. The Beavers continue to impress late in the season (24-6 from October on the last four years) after their big win last week in Corvallis vs the Huskies as the Rodgers brothers combined for 208 total yards and 4 touchdowns in the 48-21 victory. Washington St, on the other hand, had five 1st half turnovers (backup quarterback Marshall Lobbestael intercepted on 1st 3 drives prior to benching) in their 43-7 loss to UCLA in Pullman (UCLA had 28-7 first down and 556-181 yard edges). The Cougars have allowed an amazing 46 points per game in conference play the last two years including a 66-13 beat down at Reser last year as Washington St scored all of their points on Beaver turnovers. The Beavers have huge edges in all facets of the game vs the Cougars with #30-117 offense, #35-114 defense and #20-114 special teams advantages. Oregon St can name the score here but their primary motivation should be to stay healthy with a bye and Oregon on deck.

PHIL’S FORECAST : OREGON ST 48 WASH ST 10

 

#23 UTAH VS SAN DIEGO ST
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
S DIEGO ST 57
213
21
2.9
UTAH
219
288
43
1.7
••

Utah is in a huge TCU/BYU sandwich but this is their final home game. The Utes were down from beginning to end last week vs TCU (out first-downed 32-11, outgained 549-284) in a 55-28 loss (and they even got a garbage TD). After 6 consecutive 100-yard outings, running back Eddie Wide was held to 25 yards (1.8 ypc). San Diego St took a 21 point lead over Wyoming into the 4th quarter last week but allowed 24 unanswered points and lost 30-27. The Aztecs did put up the most rush yards (157, 4.9 ypc) of the season led by running back Brandon Sullivan who finished with 105 yards (5.8). Quarterback Lindley had a streak of 15 consecutive games with a touchdown pass snapped last week. San Diego St closes out with two away games. Utah had their MWC hopes dashed last week and have rival BYU on deck and Aztecs could pull out a surprise.

PHIL’S FORECAST : UTAH 30 SAN DIEGO ST 20

 

#25 RUTGERS AT SYRACUSE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
RUTGERS 71
185
23
1.4
SYRACUSE
119
200
13
3.9
••

Syracuse has dropped 4 in a row to Rutgers being outscored by an average of 36-12. The Orange have led the Scarlet Knights 14-0 the last two years only to be outscored 73-3 in the rest of the games. Rutgers has outgained Syracuse the last 3 years by 252 yards per game. Rutgers is off a dominating 31-0 win over #24 USF last Thursday. The Knights forced 4 turnovers, blocked a punt, had 7 sacks and held a USF team averaging 385 yards per game (31 points per game) to just 159 yards. True Freshman quarterback Tom Savage is averaging 171 yards per game (55%) but most importantly has a 10-2 ratio. Last week Syracuse was unable to hold on losing 10-9 to Louisville. With so many injuries and defections (58 on roster) it has been difficult for Syracuse to play 4 quarters. Syracuse’s top weapon is running back Delone Carter, a punishing runner averaging 95 yards per game (4.4 ypc). He now faces our #31 defense allowing just 98 rush yards per game (3.1 ypc). Rutgers leads the NCAA in turnover margin (+21) while Syracuse quarterback Greg Paulus has thrown 14 interceptions. The Knights have matured over the course of the season and had they not met Cincinnati in week 1 they would be in the Big East hunt. This is Syracuse’s home finale but Rutgers’ 2nd half surge makes this an easy choice. Syracuse is a depleted team that had another rash of deletions from the team two weeks ago including their top offensive weapon WR Mike Williams and Rutgers is the fresher and stronger team.   

PHIL’S FORECAST : RUTGERS 34 SYRACUSE 10